What if the Khitomer Peace Talks failed?

[FaxModem1]

Basically, either the conspiracy in Undiscovered Country succeeds and both leaders of both countries are assassinated, or Kirk and crew prevail, but the peace talks fail anyway. How would the galaxy be effected by a war between the Federation and the Klingons?

Would there even be a war?

[DaveJB]

In the short term things would revert to the previous cold war state. Azetbur wasn't a huge fan of the Federation, but she wasn't stupid - she knew that in its weakened state there the Klingon Empire probably wouldn't beat the Federation in a stand-up fight. However, odds are that eventually the more militaristic factions would usurp her from power, and then war would be pretty much inevitable.

The result of any conflict would really depend on what the Romulans did. Since relations between them and the Klingons had apparently broken down for good by then, if they didn't enter into an alliance with the Federation they'd at least start a war of their own with the Klingons after the Federation had worn their defences down. That'd leave the Klingons fighting on two fronts, and it'd probably be too much for them to cope with.

[Bounty]

The big problem both Azetbur and the President had was that they were dealing with a considerable fraction of their staff being rabidly opposed to any sort of negotiation. But those factions were under control. As long as both leaders stay alive, I don't see how the peace talks would fail; if it was possible to peacefully dissuade Azetbur or Gorkon from attacking Chang wouldn't have needed his batshit crazy plan; on the other side of the aisle, the President has the personal authority to push through the plan over his military's objections, and even his stance costs him votes, he'd still have achieved a momentous diplomatic victory. Neither leader has any reason to want the negotiations to fail, and their entourage doesn't have the means to intervene as long as the negotiations run smoothly.

If the Khitomer assassination had gone through, however, a war would have been a definite possibility. The hawks in the Federation would be in a prime position to declare an emergency and plan a strike against the Empire. With the Empire's fuel situation, and them needing a massive fleet to evacuate Kronos, the Federation's best bet would be to blockade them and starve them out.

On the Klingon side, any aggressive moves taken by the Federation in response to a so-called Klingon assassination should be enough to tip Azetbur over into the warmonger camp, and if that fails, her staff would probably be quite happy to sidetrack here for the common good. She had political clout due to her father, and from the movie it seems she had already used up most of it by insisting on the conference going through. If it's shown that the Federation wasn't reliable after all, it'd be easy to depose her for reasons of gross incompetence.

Once that happens, the Klingons best hope would be to get assistance from any neighbor who wants a piece of the Federation pie, because on its own all the Empire can do is what Chang suggests: strike fast, strike hard, and go down fighting. With allies to supply fuel and forces the Empire would have something resembling a fighting chance, and judging by Nunclus' involvement I'd wager Chang hoped this would come from their end, if not overtly, than covertly.

How the war would have gone after that, I don't think can be said with any sort of certainty. Neither side was thinking clearly; Cartwright was acting out of fear, Chang out of a thirst for glory. The Klingons certainly start on very shaky footing, but that won't stop them from doing a shitload of damage. Given the Cold War overtones, I wouldn't be surprised if both sides weren't at least seriously entertaining a potential MAD scenario.

[lstyer]

I think that unless the whole conspiracy succeeds, war doesn't break out.

But if Gorkon's assassin is an actual Klingon, as seemed to be the case in the theatrical cut of TUC, or an undiscovered human-in-disguise, as in the home video cut, I don't really see why war between the Federation would result -- that seems more likely to lead to an internal struggle within the Klingon Empire.

If war between the Federation and Empire did break out, though, the evidence we see in the film seems to point to a Federation victory, though I doubt it would be as decisive as Col. West would have had President Red believe.

[lord Martiya]

In the long term, it would probably be a ROMULAN victory: with the Klingon Empire destroyed and the Federation weakened by the war, who would stop the warbirds from invading the skies of Earth and Vulcan?

[Captain Seafort]

Hence Nanculus' involvement in the plot, and why I very strongly suspect that he was the instigator of the the whole thing, on orders from the Romulan government, and possibly a member of the Tal'Shiar.

[Patrick Degan]

In the long term, it would probably be a ROMULAN victory: with the Klingon Empire destroyed and the Federation weakened by the war, who would stop the warbirds from invading the skies of Earth and Vulcan?

The Federation would still be strong enough to beat off a Romulan invasion, but not strong enough to prevent the Romulans from grabbing up star systems on the Klingon frontier, while they would be relieved from challenge of any sort from a Klingon fleet which would be either eliminated or much reduced, and a reduced Federation threat at the same time. They move up the ladder as a co-equal power with the Federation. Still very much a Romulan victory and one accomplished without having to fire a shot or lose a ship.

[lord Martiya]

Probable. In the end it comes everything to how many losses the Federation will get from the Klingons.

[Stofsk]

But if Gorkon's assassin is an actual Klingon, as seemed to be the case in the theatrical cut of TUC, or an undiscovered human-in-disguise, as in the home video cut, I don't really see why war between the Federation would result -- that seems more likely to lead to an internal struggle within the Klingon Empire.

Don't you mean the President? Gorkon was assassinated by Crewmen Burke and Samuel who transported over from the Enterprise, not by anyone in Klingon disguise.

If war between the Federation and Empire did break out, though, the evidence we see in the film seems to point to a Federation victory, though I doubt it would be as decisive as Col. West would have had President Red believe.

President Red Foreman. I called him that in another thread on ST6 years ago.