Star Fleet size and interesting observation

[Typhonis 1]

OK in DS9 during the end of the Fith season they heard that the Dominion was sending a fleet of about 2800 warships.Now then if Starfleet has such a huge fleet available,according to some fansites 72000 ships,why would a 2800 ship Dominion fleet worry them?

[Galaxy]

I don't think starfleet has 72000 ships, unless peregrines are included in the count.

[TheDarkling]

Most common fleet estimate are either 4000 or 8-12,000 I can;'t say as I have seen alot of that 72,000 number but at a guess I would say its based off of the Reg numbers.

[Typhonis 1]

Still even with Klingon help why were they nervous about 2800 Dominion ships?I believe they were implying that would win the war for the Dominion..I could be wrong

[TheDarkling]

Well lets suppose the Feds have 12,000 ships rigth (many will say this is to high) and the Klingons have a lesser amount (lets say 3,000 or so).

Thats 15,000 ships an increase of 3,000 means your enemy has increased its ship count by 20% of your own and you and the enemy were matched before.... not good.

I don't think I explained that well but put simply 3,000 ships is a large increase when you and an enemy are evenly matched.

[Galaxy]

I don't even recall if the klingons had declared war yet until that episode.

[Dark Primus]

I don't even recall if the klingons had declared war yet until that episode.

They were with Federation almost the day one when they invaded Alpha Quadrant.

[Alyeska]

Actually the Dominion and allies had more then just 2800 ships. We know at the end of the war that combined they had a fleet of 30,000. Only the Dominion can build their ships quickly, but they didn't outnumber the Breen or Cardassians THAT badly.

As to Starfleet having 72K+ ships. Not hardly. We know a LOT of those ships were built between TOS and TNG, and that some ship classes were not endurance ships, they were decomissioned after maybe 15-20 years of service.

[TheDarkling]

Alyeska: I think he was talking about how if the fleet that the prophets wiped out had made it into the AQ it was curtains for the UFP.

Thus his question is "why is adding 2,800 ships to the war a big deal" not "how could 2,800 take on the UFP", at least thats what I thought when I responded - correct me if I'm mistaken.

[Alyeska]

Alyeska: I think he was talking about how if the fleet that the prophets wiped out had made it into the AQ it was curtains for the UFP.

Thus his question is "why is adding 2,800 ships to the war a big deal" not "how could 2,800 take on the UFP", at least thats what I thought when I responded - correct me if I'm mistaken.

Ah, that makes sense.

However 2,800 ships would tilt the ballance if the Federation had 12,000 ships, especially since the Federation was loosing the war at that point.

[TheDarkling]

Alyeska: Yeah like I said above if your enemy gets an influx of forces equal to 25% of your own its going to cause some upset (taking into account you and your enemy are equally matched).

[Kamakazie Sith]

OK in DS9 during the end of the Fith season they heard that the Dominion was sending a fleet of about 2800 warships.Now then if Starfleet has such a huge fleet available,according to some fansites 72000 ships,why would a 2800 ship Dominion fleet worry them?

IIRC that 2800 ship fleet was coming in to reinforce the fleet that was already there. It was meant to serve as overkill, when combined with the current fleet.

[seanrobertson]

OK in DS9 during the end of the Fith season they heard that the Dominion was sending a fleet of about 2800 warships.Now then if Starfleet has such a huge fleet available,according to some fansites 72000 ships,why would a 2800 ship Dominion fleet worry them?

Because they don't have that many ships

IMO, Starfleet has no more than about 4,000 capships, if that
many. You figure that the registries are up to 70000-something,
but most ships don't have very long operational lifetimes; e.g.,
the E refit was retired because some Admiral said it was
X decades old in STIII. (And AFAIK, that guy was flat wrong about
the E-nil's age.)

The huge number of Mirandas and Excelsiors we
see would seem to hurt that contention, but I'm pretty sure
both classes are still in production. A VGR episode which
showed the docks at Mars seemed to indicate the latter, at least,
was still being made. I could be wrong. (This is really my
"shitty recollection posting" day.)

Besides, those registry numbers include jerk-off ships like
*Runabouts* for crying out loud!

Still, in fairness, a 2,800 warship fleet could be very dangerous
to the Allies even if the Starfleet-KDF had, say, ten times as
many ships as I think they might. It's not simply 2,800
ships, after all; it's that many plus whatever the Dominion
and Cardassians had at that point.

I don't think it's very likely that the fleet was simply a
threat as in it might've bolstered the Axis' fleet by
maybe 10%, however. It was pretty clear that so many
ships were going to end the war, as you suggested Typhonis.
To be that decisive, the fleet had to be at least very
large relative to the Fed-Klingons' total forces.

[Alyeska]

OK in DS9 during the end of the Fith season they heard that the Dominion was sending a fleet of about 2800 warships.Now then if Starfleet has such a huge fleet available,according to some fansites 72000 ships,why would a 2800 ship Dominion fleet worry them?

Because they don't have that many ships

IMO, Starfleet has no more than about 4,000 capships, if that
many. You figure that the registries are up to 70000-something,
but most ships don't have very long operational lifetimes; e.g.,
the E refit was retired because some Admiral said it was
X decades old in STIII. (And AFAIK, that guy was flat wrong about
the E-nil's age.)

The huge number of Mirandas and Excelsiors we
see would seem to hurt that contention, but I'm pretty sure
both classes are still in production. A VGR episode which
showed the docks at Mars seemed to indicate the latter, at least,
was still being made. I could be wrong. (This is really my
"shitty recollection posting" day.)

Besides, those registry numbers include jerk-off ships like
*Runabouts* for crying out loud!

Still, in fairness, a 2,800 warship fleet could be very dangerous
to the Allies even if the Starfleet-KDF had, say, ten times as
many ships as I think they might. It's not simply 2,800
ships, after all; it's that many plus whatever the Dominion
and Cardassians had at that point.

I don't think it's very likely that the fleet was simply a
threat as in it might've bolstered the Axis' fleet by
maybe 10%, however. It was pretty clear that so many
ships were going to end the war, as you suggested Typhonis.
To be that decisive, the fleet had to be at least very
large relative to the Fed-Klingons' total forces.

Sean, if the Federation had only 4,000 ships, and their ships are roughly equal to Dominion ships, how can they have even had a chance against the Dominion and their allies when they had 30,000 ships towards the end of the war?

BTW, they are not still building Miranda's and Excelsiors. Shipyards are used for both construction and matenience of ships. That means older ships will also bee seen in shipyards as they are being repaired, refit, or other programs. Hell, we saw plenty of Excelsiors and Miranda's in that one starship grave yard, they have to be fixed up before going into service, and they would likely do that at a shipyard which has all the facilities.

[Darth Wong]

Sean, if the Federation had only 4,000 ships, and their ships are roughly equal to Dominion ships, how can they have even had a chance against the Dominion and their allies when they had 30,000 ships towards the end of the war?

Two reasons:

1) The Federation did not stand a chance against the Dominion and its allies. They needed the Klingons and Romulans. Multiply 4000 capships by 3, and you get 12,000 capships with an unknown number of fighters. If they have just two fighters for every capship, they actually outnumber the Dominion.

2) The average Fed ship is between 400m and 600m long. While the Dominion has small numbers of very large ships, most of their ships are cockroach fighters, around 100m long. The average Fed ship is probably 50 times the volume of the most common Dominion ship. The Dominion may very well NEED a numerical advantage to be competitive.

[Alyeska]

Sean, if the Federation had only 4,000 ships, and their ships are roughly equal to Dominion ships, how can they have even had a chance against the Dominion and their allies when they had 30,000 ships towards the end of the war?

Two reasons:

1) The Federation did not stand a chance against the Dominion and its allies. They needed the Klingons and Romulans. Multiply 4000 capships by 3, and you get 12,000 capships with an unknown number of fighters. If they have just two fighters for every capship, they actually outnumber the Dominion.

2) The average Fed ship is between 400m and 600m long. While the Dominion has small numbers of very large ships, most of their ships are cockroach fighters, around 100m long. The average Fed ship is probably 50 times the volume of the most common Dominion ship. The Dominion may very well NEED a numerical advantage to be competitive.

That would still be 12,000 ships against the Dominion and allies having 30,000 at the end. The Dominion only made up roughly 1/3 of the fleet. Cardassian ships were certainly powerful ships, and the Breen weren't that bad either. The FKR Alliance was going to attack and they predicted a victory against the Dominion yet at best they were outnumbered more then 2-1. This doesn't even count the insane OWPs that were in Cardassia orbit.

[Darth Wong]

Your logic is still circular: you're assuming that when someone says they have 30,000 ships, we're talking about 30,000 heavy ships (which justifies the assumption that their enemies must have had 30,000 heavy ships, which in turn is justified by the fact that the Dominion has 30,000 heavy ships, which in turn ...).

What makes you think that most of the Cardie ships weren't attack ships (small vessels, crew of 30) or shuttles? Onscreen, we never see more than a few dozen heavy vessels at any given time, and only a handful of truly large ones.

Moreover, real navies have only a handful of very large capital ships; the vast bulk of their numbers are composed of much, much smaller vessels. If you say a navy has X number of ships, no one in his right mind would assume they're all cruisers or carriers. Yet that is precisely what fanboys do in Star Trek.

[seanrobertson]

Sean, if the Federation had only 4,000 ships, and their ships are roughly equal to Dominion ships, how can they have even had a chance against the Dominion and their allies when they had 30,000 ships towards the end of the war?

I gotta admit that's rather tough to answer. I might have to
abandon the 4k figure...though I was thinking mostly in terms of
early war/pre-war production (well, circa "SoA"). I should've been
more clear about that.

The thing is, I'm not sure how large the Dominion forces could've
been around "SoA." They'd been in the AQ for less than a year,
and we're told how many convoys they'd sent since "By Inferno's
Light" in "Call To Arms." They had at least one shipyard
running (destroyed on Tauros III) for awhile, and they can
build their attack ships quickly, so it's difficult to even hazard
a guess...

BTW, they are not still building Miranda's and Excelsiors. Shipyards are used for both construction and matenience of ships. That means older ships will also bee seen in shipyards as they are being repaired, refit, or other programs. Hell, we saw plenty of Excelsiors and Miranda's in that one starship grave yard, they have to be fixed up before going into service, and they would likely do that at a shipyard which has all the facilities.

Yeah. That's true. Discarding the shipyard scene argument
altogether, then, don't some Excelsiors have registry numbers
in the 60000 range?

Going by registries is pretty tricky, though, especially given Starfleet's
propensity for bringing mothballed ships back. A better method
is what you're driving at: how many ships would be needed to
roughly counter the Dominion Alliance's late-war 30,000?

I would submit that the avg. Dominion ship is probably inferior
to the Alliance's counterpart, though. Attack ships were often
shredded by Birds of Prey. Galors had strong hulls
and good firepower but were no match for run-of-the-mill
Klingon-Federation battlecruisers. Breen ships were almost flying
junk without their E-dampening gun. The only time I can
recall any Dominion ship, other than the cruiser and battleship of course,
matching a Starfleet one onscreen is in "A Time To Stand," wherein
the stolen attack ship holds up very well to the Centaur.

I know that's all scatterbrained and half-incoherent; I apologize
for that. I'm a bit distracted. I'll come back later when I'm not

[Alyeska]

Your logic is still circular: you're assuming that when someone says they have 30,000 ships, we're talking about 30,000 heavy ships (which justifies the assumption that their enemies must have had 30,000 heavy ships, which in turn is justified by the fact that the Dominion has 30,000 heavy ships, which in turn ...).

What makes you think that most of the Cardie ships weren't attack ships (small vessels, crew of 30) or shuttles? Onscreen, we never see more than a few dozen heavy vessels at any given time, and only a handful of truly large ones.

Moreover, real navies have only a handful of very large capital ships; the vast bulk of their numbers are composed of much, much smaller vessels. If you say a navy has X number of ships, no one in his right mind would assume they're all cruisers or carriers. Yet that is precisely what fanboys do in Star Trek.

The Jem'Hadar attackship is the most numerous ship in the Dominion Alliance navy. It is somewhat stronger then a Sabre, Miranda, or Centaur. Those three ships more or less represent a significant fraction of the Federation military. They are equaled by a BoP for the most part (which speaks to the strength of the BoPs cannons). The 1.2km long Dominion ship is said to be 3 times the firepower of a GCS. That would put the strongest Dominion ship at around the level of a Sovereign class ship, maybe even the Klingon Negh'Var. The JH Cruiser seems comparable to the Galaxy or Vorcha, though far more numberous. The Cardassians have mostly the Galor class ship with only a small number of Hediekes and Keldons. The Breen have a ship of reasonable firepower, probably slightly stronger then a Attackship. All in all, the fleets seemed to be matched with comparable ship classes.

Now we know that after 2 years of fighting that the Dominion, Cardassians, and Breen have 30,000 ships combined. That fleet is made up of similar elements to the FKR fleet. The ONLY advantage the FKR fleet has is the D'Deridex Warbirds which are basically equals to the Galaxy in firepower, but make up the overwhelming majority of the Romulan fleet. Even taking that into consideration, it seems almost insane to think that the Dominion could be defeated with a 2-1 numbers advantage, the defense advantage, and one of the most powerful OWP systems seen in Trek.

[Master of Ossus]

I thought that Cardassian ships were significantly inferior to those of the Klingons and the UFP. In "The Wounded," we see Jellico's Nebula class ship (one of the more powerful SF ship classes) destroy a Galor class warship in one volley, and it did not report damage from the Cardassian weapons fire. The consistent portrayal of the Cardassians in that episode is that they are vastly less advanced than the UFP, and that they are incapable of combating UFP vessels one on one. We know that much smaller Klingon ships (Birds of Prey) can destroy GCS's with only two to one or three to one numerical superiority, so it seems to follow that the Cardassian ships are also considerably weaker as fighting vessels than the Klingon ships.

That being said, the Dominion fleet that they were worried about was made up of nearly 3000 ships. SF (well, Bashir) considered the loss of about 100 ships substantial, and the attack on DS9 launched by the UFP only involved 600 ships against 1200 (though it would have involved more, had the UFP had more time). It seems to thus indicate that a 1500 ship fleet is considered sufficient for defeating a major enemy world, because the Dominion considered the wormhole to be the key to the AQ. We can thus assume that the fleet was going to be sufficient to capture a planet like Vulcan or Earth.

These fleet numbers stack up with the current estimates of between 4,000 and 10,000 ships. Remember that a fleet of about 1000 ships will thus represent between 10 and 25% of your entire fleet, and with numerous ships being repaired, refitted, maintained, etc., this is a more substantial fleet than any that you can gather around a single starbase or planet in a reasonable amount of time.

[Master of Ossus]

Now we know that after 2 years of fighting that the Dominion, Cardassians, and Breen have 30,000 ships combined. That fleet is made up of similar elements to the FKR fleet. The ONLY advantage the FKR fleet has is the D'Deridex Warbirds which are basically equals to the Galaxy in firepower, but make up the overwhelming majority of the Romulan fleet. Even taking that into consideration, it seems almost insane to think that the Dominion could be defeated with a 2-1 numbers advantage, the defense advantage, and one of the most powerful OWP systems seen in Trek.

In open space there is no defense advantage, and it is usually a disadvantage to be defending a planet or starbase because your forces are "pinned" to that installation and cannot maneuver away from them. This is consistent with what we have seen on the show, when the Klingon fleet in SoA easily outflanked and routed the apparently numerically superior Cardassian fleet within hours. The only advantage a defender has in ST appears to be nullified if the attacking fleet can maneuver as a whole.

The OWP represent a substantial asset for the Cardassians in that they can easily destroy UFP ships (and presumably those of their allies), however OWP are only good for defending specific planets. Thus they can be bipassed if necessary. Moreover, the OWP's would only have to be breached in a small area around a planet in order to allow for an attack on that world, because their observed coverage area is fairly small. The advantage that ships represent is that they are substantially more mobile, and can participate in "strike and fade" tactics. Let's say that you have an OWP. It can easily knock out one ship, but if there are five ships ganging up on it can it destroy them? Now, have all five ships begin their attack. Once they take significant damage, they can retreat out of range and repair/rearm, while the others continually barrage the OWP with weapons fire. Then they can return, and continue in this "relay race" style of engagement until the OWP is destroyed. The OWP's can slow an enemy down and cause him serious casualties if he tries to move too quickly through an area protected by them, however they are ineffective as the ONLY defense of a planet, and are sufficient only in protecting a world long enough to allow a friendly fleet to gather and launch a counter-attack.

[Alyeska]

I thought that Cardassian ships were significantly inferior to those of the Klingons and the UFP. In "The Wounded," we see Jellico's Nebula class ship (one of the more powerful SF ship classes) destroy a Galor class warship in one volley, and it did not report damage from the Cardassian weapons fire. The consistent portrayal of the Cardassians in that episode is that they are vastly less advanced than the UFP, and that they are incapable of combating UFP vessels one on one. We know that much smaller Klingon ships (Birds of Prey) can destroy GCS's with only two to one or three to one numerical superiority, so it seems to follow that the Cardassian ships are also considerably weaker as fighting vessels than the Klingon ships.

Originally, yes. At the begining the Cardassians were portrayed as having weaker ships that are inferior to that of the other AQ/BQ races. However by the time they allied with the Dominion their firepower increased dramatically. They were able to destroy BoPs in just 1 or 2 shots and they were even a direct threat to the likes of the Defiant in just 1-1 battles. So by the end of the Dominion war the Cardassian ships were now a significant threat. That was why when the Cardassians switched sides it shifted the battle so dramatically.

That being said, the Dominion fleet that they were worried about was made up of nearly 3000 ships. SF (well, Bashir) considered the loss of about 100 ships substantial, and the attack on DS9 launched by the UFP only involved 600 ships against 1200 (though it would have involved more, had the UFP had more time). It seems to thus indicate that a 1500 ship fleet is considered sufficient for defeating a major enemy world, because the Dominion considered the wormhole to be the key to the AQ. We can thus assume that the fleet was going to be sufficient to capture a planet like Vulcan or Earth.

Where does this 3,000 ship number come from? We hear that the Klingons can retrofit 1,500 ships for the FKR alliance against the Breen. The Romulans comment that the Klingons will be outnumbered 20-1. Thats a 30,000 ship number for the Dominion Alliance. And as to the fleet that Bashir was worried about. The Fleet took 90% losses. 100 ships is important, but the loss ratio is even more stunning. Loosing 90% of your ships in a single battle, loosing the battle itself, and still being heavily outnumbered by your enemy is not a good sign. And as to a 1500 ship fleet being sufficent. With the large border that the Dominion Alliance had against the FKR alliance, you had to spread your forces along several points to defend against it, and in depth. If one side can bring enough forces into a single concentration and pierce through the other sides defenses, that in itself is significant. That is how the Dominion was able to take Betazed, and once they took Betazed they increased their lines in order to create a defense point to the planet and choke any Federation fleet massing in return.

These fleet numbers stack up with the current estimates of between 4,000 and 10,000 ships. Remember that a fleet of about 1000 ships will thus represent between 10 and 25% of your entire fleet, and with numerous ships being repaired, refitted, maintained, etc., this is a more substantial fleet than any that you can gather around a single starbase or planet in a reasonable amount of time.

The 12,000 number is more reasonable for a variety of reasons. One of them being the large number of Miranda's and Excelsior class ships we saw. That indicates that the Federation was brining its reserves into the battle. 2/3 of the fleet seemed to be fairly newer ships, however at least 1/3 of the fleet was damned near mothball status. Even with a 12,000 ship fleet, loosing aproximately 1% of your fleet. Imagine a couple dozen of these battles and losses in a year. Thats suddenly 24% of your fleet gone. Those seemingly "little" defeats of 100 ships compared to 12,000 are actually major losses when you look at the big picture.

[Alyeska]

Now we know that after 2 years of fighting that the Dominion, Cardassians, and Breen have 30,000 ships combined. That fleet is made up of similar elements to the FKR fleet. The ONLY advantage the FKR fleet has is the D'Deridex Warbirds which are basically equals to the Galaxy in firepower, but make up the overwhelming majority of the Romulan fleet. Even taking that into consideration, it seems almost insane to think that the Dominion could be defeated with a 2-1 numbers advantage, the defense advantage, and one of the most powerful OWP systems seen in Trek.

In open space there is no defense advantage, and it is usually a disadvantage to be defending a planet or starbase because your forces are "pinned" to that installation and cannot maneuver away from them. This is consistent with what we have seen on the show, when the Klingon fleet in SoA easily outflanked and routed the apparently numerically superior Cardassian fleet within hours. The only advantage a defender has in ST appears to be nullified if the attacking fleet can maneuver as a whole.

The OWP represent a substantial asset for the Cardassians in that they can easily destroy UFP ships (and presumably those of their allies), however OWP are only good for defending specific planets. Thus they can be bipassed if necessary. Moreover, the OWP's would only have to be breached in a small area around a planet in order to allow for an attack on that world, because their observed coverage area is fairly small. The advantage that ships represent is that they are substantially more mobile, and can participate in "strike and fade" tactics. Let's say that you have an OWP. It can easily knock out one ship, but if there are five ships ganging up on it can it destroy them? Now, have all five ships begin their attack. Once they take significant damage, they can retreat out of range and repair/rearm, while the others continually barrage the OWP with weapons fire. Then they can return, and continue in this "relay race" style of engagement until the OWP is destroyed. The OWP's can slow an enemy down and cause him serious casualties if he tries to move too quickly through an area protected by them, however they are ineffective as the ONLY defense of a planet, and are sufficient only in protecting a world long enough to allow a friendly fleet to gather and launch a counter-attack.

The point I am making is that the FKR Alliance was assaulting the Dominion Alliance forces on Cardassia, and they expected to be able to deal with the Dominion Alliance AND its OWP forces at the same time. We know prior to this point the Dominion Alliance had 30,000 ships. Now we have the FKR Alliance making an assault on 30,000 ships and static planetary defenses at the same time. I alread detailed how the Dominion was relatively equal in terms of ship capabilities to the FKR alliance. The FKR Alliance must have had some sort of comparable fleet size to counter the Dominion Alliance. They expected to win with the Cardassian fleet being an enemy the whole time.

[Pu-239]

well they could have 70k ships, since warp is slow, and moving ships around across large distances is inconvenient.

[Master of Ossus]

That being said, the Dominion fleet that they were worried about was made up of nearly 3000 ships. SF (well, Bashir) considered the loss of about 100 ships substantial, and the attack on DS9 launched by the UFP only involved 600 ships against 1200 (though it would have involved more, had the UFP had more time). It seems to thus indicate that a 1500 ship fleet is considered sufficient for defeating a major enemy world, because the Dominion considered the wormhole to be the key to the AQ. We can thus assume that the fleet was going to be sufficient to capture a planet like Vulcan or Earth.

Where does this 3,000 ship number come from?

From the 2800 ships that we heard were about to come through the wormhole.

We hear that the Klingons can retrofit 1,500 ships for the FKR alliance against the Breen. The Romulans comment that the Klingons will be outnumbered 20-1. Thats a 30,000 ship number for the Dominion Alliance. And as to the fleet that Bashir was worried about. The Fleet took 90% losses. 100 ships is important, but the loss ratio is even more stunning. Loosing 90% of your ships in a single battle, loosing the battle itself, and still being heavily outnumbered by your enemy is not a good sign.

I think you're twisting what he said. Bashir said that they couldn't expect to win the war if they kept taking those kind of losses. Losses is not a measure of casualty percentage, but a measure of NUMBERS, particularly given the context (clearly not all SF fleets were suffering nearly 90% casualties, so there would have been no reason to say "keep taking," in a progressive tense).

And as to a 1500 ship fleet being sufficent. With the large border that the Dominion Alliance had against the FKR alliance, you had to spread your forces along several points to defend against it, and in depth.

Irrelevent. The fleet was there to protect the station, and was obviously a substantial commital of resources. Note that Weyoun was REALLY ticked off when the Cardassians had no idea why two groups of UFP ships had moved from the front (totaling 600 ships). There would have been no reason to be concerned if it was an insignificant fleet movement. Moreover, once the UFP fleet was spotted, the rest of the ships nearby should have collapsed on the battle. We know that the battle lasted some time, with the harassment of Cardassian forces followed by the eventual suicide-run on the Dominion lines, and finally the Klingon arrival.

If one side can bring enough forces into a single concentration and pierce through the other sides defenses, that in itself is significant. That is how the Dominion was able to take Betazed, and once they took Betazed they increased their lines in order to create a defense point to the planet and choke any Federation fleet massing in return.

True, but the fleet in SoA was clearly large enough to mount an offensive (actually, all three fleets seemed large enough to do so by themselves). That was a MAJOR engagement for both sides, with a substantial movement of resources into the battle.

These fleet numbers stack up with the current estimates of between 4,000 and 10,000 ships. Remember that a fleet of about 1000 ships will thus represent between 10 and 25% of your entire fleet, and with numerous ships being repaired, refitted, maintained, etc., this is a more substantial fleet than any that you can gather around a single starbase or planet in a reasonable amount of time.

The 12,000 number is more reasonable for a variety of reasons. One of them being the large number of Miranda's and Excelsior class ships we saw. That indicates that the Federation was brining its reserves into the battle. 2/3 of the fleet seemed to be fairly newer ships, however at least 1/3 of the fleet was damned near mothball status. Even with a 12,000 ship fleet, loosing aproximately 1% of your fleet. Imagine a couple dozen of these battles and losses in a year. Thats suddenly 24% of your fleet gone. Those seemingly "little" defeats of 100 ships compared to 12,000 are actually major losses when you look at the big picture.

The Miranda and Excelsior presence in the battle proves nothing. The USS Lakota in "Paradise Lost" had clearly been retrofitted from the ones seen earlier, and was a modern warship. It had a complement of quantum torpedoes, and even without them fought the Defiant to a near-stalemate.

You assume that the fleet casualties reported represented a single engagement (even though "checked in" suggests that they had been involved in prolonged fighting), you assume that there were more than one such engagement per month, even though that's FAR higher than the level of engagement reported by the television show, and ignores the presence of allied fleets (one of which could hold the entire Dominion at bay despite a 20:1 numerical disadvantage and the fact that the smaller Birds of Prey made up a substantial portion of their fleet numbers). While I agree with you that about 10,000 UFP ships is more reasonable than the lower-end fleet counts I reported, I hardly think that a 12,000 ship count can be considered "more reasonable" based solely on the faulty logic that dozens of engagements similar to the SERIES of engagements that one small UFP fleet reported were common-place during the war.