US report plays down Iran threat

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Dartzap
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US report plays down Iran threat

Post by Dartzap »

BBC
US report plays down Iran threat
Iran appears "less determined" to develop nuclear weapons than previously thought, US intelligence officials say.

Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, but it is continuing to enrich uranium, according to a National Intelligence Estimate report.

The White House said the development was "positive news", but that the risk of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons remained a "serious problem".

Iran says its nuclear programme is for civilian purposes only.
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Post by Admiral Valdemar »

I like how USS Harry S. Truman going to the Gulf is picked up, once again, as a signal of an imminent attack by certain people, as opposed to the six month switch-over that is routine.
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Post by Flagg »

Admiral Valdemar wrote:I like how USS Harry S. Truman going to the Gulf is picked up, once again, as a signal of an imminent attack by certain people, as opposed to the six month switch-over that is routine.
It's because these fuckwits cannot at all be trusted.
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Post by Admiral Valdemar »

The US administration or the people continually crying wolf? I agree on both counts.
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Post by That NOS Guy »

Admiral Valdemar wrote:I like how USS Harry S. Truman going to the Gulf is picked up, once again, as a signal of an imminent attack by certain people, as opposed to the six month switch-over that is routine.
They do it every goddamn time a carrier goes into the gulf. It's earnestly annoying at this point that some people don't realize units rotate.
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Post by Flagg »

Admiral Valdemar wrote:The US administration or the people continually crying wolf? I agree on both counts.
The administration. There are plenty of alarmist fuckheads, but with the people running things...
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Post by Sea Skimmer »

Flagg wrote: The administration. There are plenty of alarmist fuckheads, but with the people running things...
It doesn’t matter what anyone happens to think about the administration, one fucking carrier is not going to attack Iran. If any of these morons knew anything about carrier operations they know why, one carrier cannot sustain constant air operations. Since the US cannot use any of its Gulf bases to support an attack, and missions out of Iraq and Afghanistan are inherently limited by logistics, carrier air power and long range bombers would have to be used almost to the exclusion of other assets. That means three or four carriers minimal, and more likely the USN would put its new surge doctrine into effect and send six or seven.
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Post by Sidewinder »

I hope the Bush Administration read that fucking report. I'm sick and tired of Bush & Co. going, "End the threat of an Iranian bomb! Bomb Iran now! Regime change, woo-hoo!" every other day.
Please do not make Americans fight giant monsters.

Those gun nuts do not understand the meaning of "overkill," and will simply use weapon after weapon of mass destruction (WMD) until the monster is dead, or until they run out of weapons.

They have more WMD than there are monsters for us to fight. (More insanity here.)
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Post by Admiral Valdemar »

Sea Skimmer wrote:
It doesn’t matter what anyone happens to think about the administration, one fucking carrier is not going to attack Iran. If any of these morons knew anything about carrier operations they know why, one carrier cannot sustain constant air operations. Since the US cannot use any of its Gulf bases to support an attack, and missions out of Iraq and Afghanistan are inherently limited by logistics, carrier air power and long range bombers would have to be used almost to the exclusion of other assets. That means three or four carriers minimal, and more likely the USN would put its new surge doctrine into effect and send six or seven.
But Great Leader, there are THREE carriers there now!!1!!!1 ZOMG!!1! A SNEEK ATTAcK!1
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Post by Sea Skimmer »

Sidewinder wrote:I hope the Bush Administration read that fucking report. I'm sick and tired of Bush & Co. going, "End the threat of an Iranian bomb! Bomb Iran now! Regime change, woo-hoo!" every other day.
I’m fucking sick and tired of democrats proclaiming that far more often and far more loudly. I can’t think of one time I’ve ever heard Bush talk about a regime change (not saying it’s never happened) but I can think of several times in the past fucking week democrats have been raving about it. It’s not fucking going to happen. People chatted about it was my damn job four years ago, they still do now, and the US has showed absolutely no signs of making any movement on it at all.

As for the report, I just hope it didn’t come from the same fools who in 1947 told us the Soviet Union would require 20 years to build a nuke.
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Post by DavidEC »

It looks like that, the discussion's intensity over the past 2.5 years is inversely proportional to the amount of other interesting news on the airwaves.
Sea Skimmer wrote:Since the US cannot use any of its Gulf bases to support an attack,
Ballistic missile attack, or political sensitivities?
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Post by Sea Skimmer »

Economic interests above all else I’d think, a war between the US and Iran will probably shut down gulf shipping for weeks if not months. One of many reasons why the US wont be attacking. That’s vital not only for exporting black gold; all those Gulf States are also completely dependent on imported goods delivered via sea. Political issues, and the fear of direct retaliatory attack would also be major factors, I suspect though that the Arabs fear thousands of Iranian commandos coming across in dhows more then they do random ballistic missile impacts.
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Post by Sidewinder »

Sea Skimmer wrote:
Sidewinder wrote:I hope the Bush Administration read that fucking report. I'm sick and tired of Bush & Co. going, "End the threat of an Iranian bomb! Bomb Iran now! Regime change, woo-hoo!" every other day.
I’m fucking sick and tired of democrats proclaiming that far more often and far more loudly. I can’t think of one time I’ve ever heard Bush talk about a regime change (not saying it’s never happened) but I can think of several times in the past fucking week democrats have been raving about it.
:shock: I need to watch more CNN.
Please do not make Americans fight giant monsters.

Those gun nuts do not understand the meaning of "overkill," and will simply use weapon after weapon of mass destruction (WMD) until the monster is dead, or until they run out of weapons.

They have more WMD than there are monsters for us to fight. (More insanity here.)
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Post by Darth Wong »

Sea Skimmer wrote:I’m fucking sick and tired of democrats proclaiming that far more often and far more loudly.
Which ones?
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Post by SirNitram »

Darth Wong wrote:
Sea Skimmer wrote:I’m fucking sick and tired of democrats proclaiming that far more often and far more loudly.
Which ones?
Joe Lieberman would be the obvious, but he's an Indep now.. Still has a freakin' hardon for going after Iran.
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Post by The Spartan »

And more today: Link
Bush: Iran report a 'warning signal'
President says a new intelligence report on Iran provides 'a warning signal'
The Associated Press
updated 10:27 a.m. CT, Tues., Dec. 4, 2007
WASHINGTON - President Bush said Tuesday that the international community should continue to pressure Iran on its nuclear programs, saying Tehran remains dangerous despite a new intelligence report finding it halted its development of a nuclear bomb.

"I view this report as a warning signal that they had the program, they halted the program," Bush said. "The reason why it's a warning signal is they could restart it."

Bush spoke one day after a new national intelligence estimate found that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in the fall of 2003, largely because of international scrutiny and pressure.

That finding is in stark contrast to the comparable intelligence estimate of just two years ago, when U.S. intelligence agencies believed Tehran was determined to develop a nuclear weapons capability and was continuing its weapons development program.

It is also stood in marked contrast to Bush's rhetoric on Iran. At his last news conference on Oct. 17, for instance, he said that people "interested in avoiding World War III" should be working to prevent Iran from having the knowledge needed to make a nuclear weapon.

Bush said Tuesday that he only learned of the new intelligence assessment last week. But he portrayed it as valuable ammunition against Tehran, not as a reason to lessen diplomatic pressure.

‘Nothing's changed’
"To me, the NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) provides an opportunity for us to rally the international community -- to continue to rally the community -- to pressure the Iranian regime to suspend its program," the president said. "What's to say they couldn't start another covert nuclear weapons program."

He also asserted that the report means "nothing's changed," focusing on the previous existence of a weapons program and not addressing the discrepancy between his rhetoric and the disclosure that weapons program has been frozen for four years.

Bush said he is not troubled about his standing, about perhaps facing a credibility gap with the American people. "No, I'm feeling pretty spirited -- pretty good about life," Bush said.

"I have said Iran is dangerous, and the NIE doesn't do anything to change my opinion about the danger Iran poses to the world."

In Kabul, Afghanistan, Defense Secretary Robert Gates reinforced the U.S. position that the new U.S. intelligence assessment shows that Tehran remains a possible threat. He said it shows that Iran has had a nuclear weapons program and that as long as the country continues with its uranium enrichment activities, Iran could always renew its weapons program.

The U.S. intelligence assessment "validated the administration's strategy of bringing diplomatic and economic efforts to bear on Iran," Gates said Tuesday, speaking at a news conference with Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai.


First in nearly 7 weeks
Bush called the news conference, his first in nearly seven weeks, to intensify pressure on lawmakers amid disputes over spending and the Iraq war. Taking advantage of his veto power and the largest bully pulpit in town, Bush regularly scolds Congress as a way to stay relevant and frame the debate as his presidency winds down.

Democrats counter that Bush is more interested in making statements than genuinely trying to negotiate some common ground with them.

Specifically, Bush again on Tuesday challenged Congress to send him overdue spending bills; to approve his latest war funding bill without conditions; to pass a temporary to fix to the alternative minimum tax so millions of taxpayers don't get hit with tax increases; and to extend the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.

"Congress still has a lot to do," Bush said. "It doesn't have very much time to do it."

On another matter, Bush was asked about a rape victim in Saudi Arabia who was sentenced to prison and 200 lashes for being alone with a man not related to her -- a violation of the kingdom's strict segregation of the sexes. Saudi Arabia has faced enormous international criticism about the sentencing.

"My first thoughts were these," Bush said. "What happens if this happens to my daughter? How would I react? And I would have been -- I'd of been very emotional, of course. I'd have been angry at those who committed the crime. And I'd be angry at a state that didn't support the victim."

Bush, however, said he has not made his views known directly to Saudi King Abdullah, an ally. But he added: "He knows our position loud and clear."

The president said the U.S. economy is strong, though he acknowledged that the housing crisis has become a "headwind." He said administration officials are working on the issue, but he is wary of bailing out lenders. "We shouldn't say, 'OK, you made a lousy loan so we're going to go ahead and subsidize you.' "

Asked about the 2008 election, Bush steered himself back out of commenting on politics. "I practiced some punditry in the past -- I'm not going to any further."

On Iran, Bush said the report's finding would not prompt him to take a U.S. military option against Tehran off the table.

"The best diplomacy -- effective diplomacy -- is one in which all options are on the table," he said.

The president also said that the world would agree with his message that Iran shouldn't be let off the hook yet.

In fact, Europeans said the new information strengthens their argument for negotiations with Tehran, but they also said that sanctions are still an option to compel Iran to be fully transparent about its nuclear program.

European officials insisted that the international community should not walk away from years of talks with an often defiant Tehran that is openly enriching uranium for uncertain ends. The report said Iran could still build a nuclear bomb by 2010-2015.
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Post by Adrian Laguna »

I'm amused. I have long held the opinion that when Iran says, "Our nuclear program is only for civilian purposes," the statement is true except for the word "only". Turns out all of it has been true for over four years now.
The U.S. intelligence assessment "validated the administration's strategy of bringing diplomatic and economic efforts to bear on Iran," Gates said Tuesday, speaking at a news conference with Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai.
Yes and no. From what I understand the brunt of these efforts were brought to bear after the Iranians decided to quit it with the atomic weapons building. The economic sanctions were not necessary and had little effect.
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