Let's talk about Zimbabwe

[brianeyci]

Meanwhile, South Africa's leading financial newspaper, Business Day, said Thursday that Mugabe has privately admitted his defeat to family and friends, and was still deciding whether to hand over power or contest Tsvangirai's victory.

"Mugabe has conceded to his closest advisers, the army, police and intelligence chiefs. He has also told his family and personal advisers that he has lost the election," Business Day quoted an unidentified source as saying.

On the one hand, admitting to himself he lost means this tinpot dictator has a taste of reality. On the other, that means throughout his reign, we can safely conclude he was not delusional, and knew all the "reforms" he peddled were just to advance his own agenda and wealth. It means he honestly didn't give a shit about his people, not that it needs any more verification after "Operation Take-Out Trash" or redirecting blame to the whites and West.

If he's admitting he lost it means he's made himself a reasonably safe insurance policy. Either another African shithole, or he's confident enough in Zimbabwe's laws that the incoming President won't order the Army to kill him. One difference between NK and Zimbabwe: at least the law still functions in Zimbabwe, though insane laws.

[Darth Wong]

I don't know if you could really say that the law functions. When courts are hopelessly corrupted, the law is more of a play-act than a legitimate system.

[Darth Wong]

BTW, if anyone read that article from The Atlantic that was posted earlier, it lists ten steps for destroying a country:

1. Destroy the engine of productivity
2. Bury the truth
3. Crush dissent
4. Legislate the impossible
5. Teach hate
6. Scare off foreigners
7. Invade a neighbor
8. Ignore a deadly enemy
9. Commit genocide
10. Blame the imperialists

Items #1, #3, #5, #6, #7, #9, and #10 can all be summarized as "Blame the country's woes on an identifiable group and then attempt to punish that group". This leaves items #2, #4, and #8 (and #8 has a misleading name, since it's talking about disease rather than a human enemy). So the more accurate list would be:

1. Blame the country's woes on various groups or minorities and then attempt to punish them.

2. Censorship.

3. Legislate the impossible.

4. Ignore practical problems.

The problem with this much shorter and more succinct list is that the United States pretty obviously runs perilously close to it, except for the censorship part (and they've taken some steps toward that too, with the "state secrets" doctrine). And who wants to hear that?

[CJvR]

1. Blame the country's woes on various groups or minorities and then attempt to punish them.

2. Censorship.

3. Legislate the impossible.

4. Ignore practical problems.

I think the first original point is quite valid on it's own. Mugabe wouldn't be in nearly as much problems if he hadn't wrecked the economy.

1. Destroy functioning bussiness for political power.
2. Blame anyone else for the following meltdown and punish them.
3. Censorship. (Should probably be the #1 issue since it simplifies the other 4 enormously)
4. Legislate the impossible.
5. Ignore practical problems

[Zixinus]

It seems the fucker isn't coming down without a fight. *sigh* Civil war it is.

[Darth Wong]

I think the first original point is quite valid on it's own. Mugabe wouldn't be in nearly as much problems if he hadn't wrecked the economy.

Yes, but he obviously did not seek to deliberately wreck the economy. What he did do was blame white landowners for the country's problems and then attempt to destroy them rather than doing the more rational thing, which would be taxation of their profits in order to gradually redistribute some of their wealth to the poor. It's all part of the same basic methodology: identify a subgroup, blame it, and then attempt to destroy it.

Totalitarian regimes are always characterized by the tendency to destroy parts of the country that offend them. "If thine eye offends thee, pluck it out" seems to be their modus operandi.

[Broomstick]

You know, Mike, for an atheist you sure are good with those Bible quotes. Know thine enemy, right?

[Jade Falcon]

I notice that also the party line used to be that the landowners 'stole' the land, and while there's no doubt that there will have been some farms that were there during the days of Ian Smith's Rhodesia, or maybe even further back, the idea that some were bought under Mugabe's time in office fairly counters that old claim.

Also, it's bad enough that these farms were stolen, but given to a bunch of Mugabe's friends, not even the militants that did the dirty work is even worse.

[Darth Wong]

You know, Mike, for an atheist you sure are good with those Bible quotes. Know thine enemy, right?

Heh. I actually read the whole Bible once, which makes me more of a Bible expert than the majority of Christians. I'll admit I'm no theologian, but reading the thing, even once, really helps dispel a lot of popular mythologies about it. It's also an act which should warrant a medal as far as I'm concerned, because it's a horrible, long, painfully repetitive and badly written book.

[Darth Wong]

I notice that also the party line used to be that the landowners 'stole' the land, and while there's no doubt that there will have been some farms that were there during the days of Ian Smith's Rhodesia, or maybe even further back, the idea that some were bought under Mugabe's time in office fairly counters that old claim.

Also, it's bad enough that these farms were stolen, but given to a bunch of Mugabe's friends, not even the militants that did the dirty work is even worse.

He would probably say that he was giving them to "important leaders of the liberation struggle", whereas the militants need to continue the struggle rather than settling down and thinking it's all over. You can justify anything as long as you portray yourself as being in a continuous state of war.

[Mayabird]

Looks like it's going to be a run-off. Who else thinks the run-off will be heavily rigged?

Zanu-PF backs Mugabe for run-off

President Robert Mugabe meets Zanu-PF figures at party HQ (4.4.08)
Mr Mugabe appeared relaxed as party leaders prepared to meet

Mugabe in meeting

Zimbabwe's ruling Zanu-PF party has given its backing to President Robert Mugabe's participation in a possible run-off vote.

The party's top leaders met to decide how to react to election results that have yet to be announced, six days after the presidential poll.

The opposition MDC claims its leader received enough votes to win outright.

There had been speculation that Mr Mugabe would stand aside rather than face a second poll.

Zanu-PF also said it would call for recounts for 16 seats in the parliamentary elections.

If successfully contested, these would be enough for the party to regain the majority it lost for the first time since 1980 in Saturday's poll.

'Dear old man'

Zanu-PF administration secretary Didymus Mutasa said there would be a re-run in the presidential race if the election commission "compels us".


We will be forced to defend our sovereignty
Jabulani Sibanda
Zimbabwe War Veterans' Association

Zanu-PF prepares for battle
Send us your comments
"We are down but not out," he said after the five-hour meeting.

"Absolutely the candidate will be Robert Gabriel Mugabe - who else would it be other than our dear old man?" he said.

The MDC (Movement for Democratic Change) says its candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, took 50.3% of the vote, just over the 50% needed to avoid a run-off.

An independent projection says Mr Tsvangirai gained 49%, just below the threshold, with Mr Mugabe on 42%.


Campaign posters are being taken down

Enlarge Image
The MDC said it had filed a suit at Harare High Court, demanding the release of the official results.

Correspondents say there are fears a second round - which would be expected to take place within three weeks - could lead to a resurgence of the violence and intimidation that has been a characteristic of past elections in Zimbabwe.

The BBC's Peter Biles says that Zanu-PF hardliners backed the move to endorse the 84-year-old leader if a run-off is called.

But the ruling party remains divided, he says, with many who would still like to see a change of leadership, knowing that under Mr Mugabe, Zimbabwe has no future.

'Provocation'

On Friday, hundreds of Zanu-PF supporters - some of them veterans from the war against white rule that led to independence - marched through the capital, Harare, the Associated Press news agency reported.

Jabulani Sibanda, head of the Zimbabwe War Veterans' Association, which has been associated with past election violence, said Zanu-PF lost the elections because "people were pushed by hunger and illegal sanctions".


ELECTION RESULTS SO FAR
Parliamentary results
Presidential results:
None so far
Winner needs more than 50% to avoid run-off
Senate results:
Zanu-PF: 5
MDC: 5
Source: ZEC


Voters predict results
Is Mugabe losing his grip?
"Under current circumstances the spirit of our people is being provoked. We will be forced to defend our sovereignty," he said.

Mr Mugabe's former information, Jonathan Moyo, who is now an outspoken independent MP in parliament, said the ruling party was seeking ways to reverse its losses.

"War veterans and militias" would "terrorise the villagers", he warned in an interview with French news agency AFP.

Police said two foreign nationals arrested at a hotel on Thursday had been charged with practising journalism without accreditation.

One has been named as Pulitzer Prize-winning New York Times journalist, Barry Bearak. The other is said to be a British citizen.

But the attorney general said there was no case against two foreign journalists, their lawyer said, although he added that he did not know if they would be released.

Another US citizen, a staff member at the US-based National Democratic Institute, was detained at Harare's airport on Thursday, the organisation said.

Also on Thursday, the MDC said its offices in Harare were ransacked. It denied that Mr Tsvangirai had gone into hiding and said he was "safe".

Shortages

Mr Mugabe, 84, came to power 28 years ago at independence on a wave of optimism.


MDC leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, 2008
Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC has ended Mr Mugabe's grip on parliament

The rivals
But in recent years Zimbabwe has been plagued by the world's highest inflation, as well as acute food and fuel shortages, which correspondents say have driven many voters to back the opposition.

So far, 10 of the 60 Senate results have been officially announced, with each party taking five seats.

In the lower house of parliament, the MDC took 99 seats, while Zanu-PF won 97. A smaller MDC faction, which backed former Mugabe loyalist Simba Makoni in the presidential election, won 10 seats, leaving them with a potentially influential role.

However, Zanu-PF gained 46% of the vote in the parliamentary race, against 43% for the MDC, which supporters of Mr Mugabe say gives him hope of victory in a run-off.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7329856.stm

[Sidewinder]

Looks like it's going to be a run-off. Who else thinks the run-off will be heavily rigged?

That's kind of obvious. The real question is whether or not Mugabe can get away with it. (Slobodan Milosevic didn't when he tried to rig the results of Yugoslavia's 2000 elections, but this occured after his country lost a disastrous war under his watch, which made the security forces rethink their loyalties. I don't think Mugabe faces pressure comparable to NATO bombing the shit out of his country.)