Pennsylvania Primary Thread

CJvR · Post by **CJvR** » 2008-04-23 02:33am

Which way will the dropout candidates votes fall? They still have a few electors don't they?

Aeolus · Post by **Aeolus** » 2008-04-23 03:03am

CJvR wrote:Which way will the dropout candidates votes fall? They still have a few electors don't they?

Not enough to matter. It's in the hands of the superdelegates now.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2008-04-23 03:31am

This is a minor psychological victory for the Clinton campaign, but not really anything more. Her big funders are tapped out, either out of concern that they're not seeing a return on investment or because the law prevents them from giving more. So what is she going to use to tackle Obama's lead in North Carolina? Sunshine and farts? And what about the 15-point lead Clinton had in Indiana that's now apparently evaporated into a 5-point deficit?

I guess to Clinton, "turning the tide" means "blowing a 25-point lead in 6 weeks".

GrandMasterTerwynn · Post by **GrandMasterTerwynn** » 2008-04-23 07:57am

Patrick Degan wrote:
GrandMasterTerwynn wrote:And the longer she can hang on, in spite of Obama's fund-raising advantage, the more minor gaffes the Obama camp makes that Clinton can pounce on and blow out of proportion, the stronger her case grows. After all, if Obama can't knock her out, even though she's got almost no money, what more against McCain, who's had all these months to campaign for President, and who's recently circumvented that campaign finance legislation with his name on it, so he can have more money?
Hillary won't dare to make that argument, though, because it's logic is so easily turned back upon her: if she had to struggle so hard against a first-time presidential candidate —a rookie senator— for a nomination that was supposed to be hers for the taking, and drained her coffers doing so, what's she got left in the tank to go against McCain?

We all know why Hillary is struggling against Obama. It's because he's a darkie, and you know how darkies stick together. But that's okay, because the brown, yellow, and red people vote for Hillary. And sure, Obama gets support from the young idealists, but you know they're not the Democrats who matter. The Democrats who matter are blue-collar white people and old people. They vote for Hillary. Sure, young idealists get uppity, but they ultimately stay home on Election Day. And besides, none of them are going to be stupid enough to hand Bush-lite a victory in November, are they? No . . . they'll vote Hillary, and they're going to like it.

The above probably reflects the Clinton camp's thought processes very well, given the sorts of race-baiting remarks Bill can't seem to help but make. Every important primary we've come across, we see the same thing. We hope that somehow, this one is going to be the knockout-blow that will finally shut the Clinton spin-machine up so Obama can get on with the business of running for President.

Unfortunately, that still hasn't materialized. And Clinton, regardless of what rational people say, is still in it and presenting this image of keeping it "competitive."

The scary thing is, I suspect they know that the longer they can drag this out, the more weary the Obama camp will get, and the more likely Obama representatives, and Obama himself, will throw more mud back, get nastier, and make little mistakes and slip-ups that'll earn the Clintons some free publicity. They'll get punchier and fight dirtier . . . but the Clintons have been fighting dirty their entire political lives. The longer they can drag this out, the more the campaign will sink into the nasty, muddy, spin-heavy territory where the Clintons are most comfortable.

I predict the only thing that's going to get Clinton to do the rational, proper thing, and drop out, is if she loses the next few primaries by double-digits. Anything less than that, and the media will continue to play this up like a horse-race, and the more they'll keep trumpeting how "competitive" and "tenacious" Clinton is. And apart from South Carolina, I don't see that happening. And when she loses South Carolina, we all know what she's going to say, and what Bill is going to blame it on.

My goodness, I'm cynical this morning. I think I need breakfast.

The Spartan · Post by **The Spartan** » 2008-04-23 08:04am

The Stupid Selfish Bitch is going to drag this shit out until August.

I was really optimistic at the begining of the year with Obama's campaign, and I still support him, but, I'm starting to really dread November. There's an anxiety creeping up in the back of my mind about Obama finally getting the nomination but then losing in the general election from of voter fatigue, for lack of a better word, and McCain simply being fresh and rested and having more ammunition to use and all because The Stupid Selfish Bitch just wouldn't fucking quit and the jackasses in charge wouldn't sit her down and tell her she's not getting the nomination so she should sit down and shut the fuck up.

Post by **Cairber** » 2008-04-23 09:37am

The PA department of state is only showing a 8.6% victory for Clinton:

link

It's still unofficial but it does look closer than the MSM is showing it.

Post by **K. A. Pital** » 2008-04-23 11:53am

How is that vote any more "key" than any other vote? Tell me please why all news headlines are "Clinton wins key democratic vote".

Alerik the Fortunate · Post by **Alerik the Fortunate** » 2008-04-23 11:55am

It's key because she won it, thus validating the manufactured competition. I imagine the word key would be applied to any win by an underdog at this point.

Vohu Manah · Post by **Vohu Manah** » 2008-04-23 12:19pm

However you choose to spin it the numbers will never add up. MSNBC pretty much said the push for pledged delegates is over. I guess I'm expecting too much for the supers to step in and end Hillary's campaign.

Guardsman Bass · Post by **Guardsman Bass** » 2008-04-23 12:20pm

Stas Bush wrote:How is that vote any more "key" than any other vote? Tell me please why all news headlines are "Clinton wins key democratic vote".

It's key because she won it by enough to justify staying in, and to bring in more money (apparently $3 million or so last night). It just lets her keep on fighting, although it's not over yet.

I doubt it will make it to the convention. For one thing, the remaining super-delegates are mostly cowards, not idiots; they might wait until the end of the very last primary, but then most of them will follow up and declare. They're just afraid that if they endorse the wrong democratic candidate, they might lose their jobs in the next election.

GrandMasterTerwynn · Post by **GrandMasterTerwynn** » 2008-04-23 12:50pm

Vohu Manah wrote:However you choose to spin it the numbers will never add up. MSNBC pretty much said the push for pledged delegates is over. I guess I'm expecting too much for the supers to step in and end Hillary's campaign.

The push for pledged delegates has been over for months. Obama has a lead, an insurmountable one, yes, but one that is insufficient to secure the nomination outright. The only way either of them can get the nomination is with the superdelegates. And I have to wonder at the fact that more of them are not stepping in and making noise about Clinton ending her campaign. They all seem to be toeing the Clinton party line that every vote must be counted and that every state must be heard. Even though, barring some disaster or miracle, the remaining states are not going to impact the status quo.

Majin Gojira · Post by **Majin Gojira** » 2008-04-23 03:49pm

Mr Bean wrote:I think I'm going to have to travel to Pennsylvania and personally punch every registered young person who did not vote today. Why won't it end damn you!?

I missed the time to change from an independant to a Democrat, alright!

It's my fault I couldn't stop at least one of my fellows for voting Hilary as well after I found out.

Guardsman Bass · Post by **Guardsman Bass** » 2008-04-23 05:12pm

GrandMasterTerwynn wrote:
Vohu Manah wrote:However you choose to spin it the numbers will never add up. MSNBC pretty much said the push for pledged delegates is over. I guess I'm expecting too much for the supers to step in and end Hillary's campaign.
The push for pledged delegates has been over for months. Obama has a lead, an insurmountable one, yes, but one that is insufficient to secure the nomination outright. The only way either of them can get the nomination is with the superdelegates. And I have to wonder at the fact that more of them are not stepping in and making noise about Clinton ending her campaign. They all seem to be toeing the Clinton party line that every vote must be counted and that every state must be heard. Even though, barring some disaster or miracle, the remaining states are not going to impact the status quo.

They're cowards. A lot of them come from contestable areas where if they back the wrong Democratic candidate in terms of what their districts want, they might end up losing their jobs next election.

Post by **Coyote** » 2008-04-23 05:59pm

Hillary always manages to get some last-minute shot-in-the-arm that keeps her head just above water, and she latches onto this shit as evidence that her message resonates with the common voter.

CmdrWilkens · Post by **CmdrWilkens** » 2008-04-23 07:18pm

I think the only positive with this "key" victory is that everyone is not tlaking about Hillary's momentum but rather how she is still in a huge hole and didn't win by near enough to make any dent in Obama's lead. The fact that there hasn't really been a cry of "she's alive again" meansthatonce sanity returns after the post-election high the general trend fo the election might FINALLY go where it should have been heading all along: towards Obama's nomination. Now that we have PA behind us the next state to talk about is friendly for him and indiana has been starting to lean his way so long as that is the case we are going to get two solid weeks of "Hillary is in ahole and if she can't pull an upset its over." That may finally be enough but the hopeful part of me doesn't really believe it.

The Duchess of Zeon · Post by **The Duchess of Zeon** » 2008-04-23 08:03pm

If he does win Indiana by 5% and North Carolina by 15%, can Hillary really stay in the race?

Adrian Laguna · Post by **Adrian Laguna** » 2008-04-23 08:44pm

Jon Stewart was asking pretty much the same question of Obama when he interviewed him couple of nights ago.

"Is there any concern that you will win the nomination, and the general election, and then during your inauguration Clinton will still be running?"

CmdrWilkens · Post by **CmdrWilkens** » 2008-04-23 08:46pm

The Duchess of Zeon wrote:If he does win Indiana by 5% and North Carolina by 15%, can Hillary really stay in the race?

Absolutely. She and Bill have more than enough money to, as she claims to intend, fight all the way through the convention in August. Realistically if she loses Indiana by 10% or more I thinkthe external pressure and superdelegate support will finally shift decisively that she won't be able to maintain the fiction of coup by superdelegate. If she losses the upcoming contests by less then I think she likely will stay in until the last big undeclared superdelegates have finished weighing in against her which could take until early June.

Post by **Coyote** » 2008-04-24 10:21am

The Duchess of Zeon wrote:If he does win Indiana by 5% and North Carolina by 15%, can Hillary really stay in the race?

Of course! Those are latte-sipping boutique Red states that don't count.

Or something.