UN Council braced for Darfur vote

[[R_H]]

BBC

The UN Security Council is expected later to renew the mandate for peacekeeping troops in Sudan's Darfur region for another year.

The decision has been affected by the International Criminal Court's move to seek the arrest of Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir for alleged genocide.

The resolution notes an African Union request for the Council to postpone the ICC's work, but does no more than that.

Earlier, a report found the UN-African Union force lacked vital equipment.

The UN estimates five years of conflict in Darfur have left 300,000 people dead and more than two million homeless.

Aid agency Oxfam says about 1,000 people are being displaced every month in the region.

Vote pressure

Khartoum says the scale of the violence and suffering has been exaggerated by the West for political reasons.

It denies charges that it organised the Arab Janjaweed militias, accused of widespread atrocities against Darfur's black African population.

Earlier on Thursday, two courts sentenced 22 Darfur rebels to death for their involvement in a raid on the capital in May, the first time rebels had reached Khartoum.

Later (1900 GMT), the 15 UN Security Council members are likely to unanimously approve a resolution to extend the mandate in Darfur until 31 July 2009, say diplomats.

The African Union asked the UN Security Council to use its power to suspend the ICC's proceedings for a year, saying indicting Sudan's president would set back peace in Darfur.

Libya and South Africa, backed by Russia and China, wanted to include this in the resolution on renewing the mandate.

But the UK, France, the US and central American countries objected, saying there should be no link between the peacekeeping force and whatever the court might do.

Faced with the prospect that the force might not have its mandate renewed, a compromise has been found after much wrangling.

Western powers agreed to wording making clear the Security Council was ready to discuss suspending any future ICC indictment of President Bashir.

Blue plastic bags

Sudan's UN Ambassador Abdalmahmoud Abdalhaleem told Reuters it was an "acceptable" text.

Only about a third of the intended 26,000 peacekeepers have so far been deployed on the first anniversary of the decision to deploy troops in the region.

Many do not have the equipment they need, according to a report backed by 36 human rights groups and non-governmental organisations (NGOs).

It said some soldiers even have to wear blue plastic bags on their heads because they do not have the standard blue UN helmet.

The report, published by the Save Darfur coalition, says helicopters are vital to the success of the mission but no country has offered a single one of the aircraft.

It says military powers like the US, Britain and France are tied down in wars and other peacekeeping operations.

But it named the Czech Republic, Italy, Romania, Spain, Ukraine and India, saying they have more than 70 suitable aircraft needed for the mission.

The report says a militia attack three weeks ago on a UN-AU convoy that left seven peacekeepers dead and 19 wounded underscores the critical importance of helicopters.

[Sea Skimmer]

The UN will just make its self look ever more irrelevant by voting to continue this façade of an intervention. Even if they had all 26,000 fully equipped men on the ground, which is never going to happen, it still wouldn’t accomplish anything in a nation that makes up 2% of the worlds land surface area. No peace has ever existed to keep in the first place, and without a mandate to go on the offensive the UN troops are basically just shooting gallery targets whose weapons are being captured outright by militia.

If the UN actually put an oil embargo into effect Sudan would lose 75% of its foreign exchange earnings and most of its fuel supply too, the country cannot even come close to refining enough for its own needs. That might have a real effect, but of course China needs that oil, and it pays for it with weapons and equipment which are supposedly UN banned, so an oil embargo will never happen despite the other nations having pushed for it on and off since around 1996 when Sudan was in a completely different war.

But then we should have a sense of proportion, at least this genocidal war has killed only 200-300,000 while Sudan’s previous pair of civil wars (spanning vertically the entire independent history of the nation! They’ve had less then 10 years of peace!) killed at least 2 million. Sudan is basically the worst idea ever for a country, and heck we know that Darfur and the area around Khartoum have been at each others throats for five hundred years. The place is more then big and ethnically segregated enough to be broken up into three states (center, east and south) but that’s sure not happening if even poor British Somaliland isn’t allowed to ditch the Italian part of Somalia.

So yeah anyway, we should cut off the flow of oil, send 10,000 air mobile troops to make a three month smash and burn raid against the militas, and then forget about the place like we already do.

[Guardsman Bass]

Couldn't we just arm and train the Darfuris? I'm getting "ethnic conflict escalation" vibes, but what the hell - the Rwandan genocide stopped when an armed Tutsi force (including elements of the old Rwandan army) drove the genocidal fuckers driving the Rwandan genocide out of the country.

At the very least, the Janjaweed will be more afraid to go around fucking the place up.

[Thanas]

As long as Russia and China continue to make business with Bashir, there will be no effective solution to the conflict, since they are blocking everything that would hurt/harm Bashir.

[Sea Skimmer]

Couldn't we just arm and train the Darfuris? I'm getting "ethnic conflict escalation" vibes, but what the hell - the Rwandan genocide stopped when an armed Tutsi force (including elements of the old Rwandan army) drove the genocidal fuckers driving the Rwandan genocide out of the country.

At the very least, the Janjaweed will be more afraid to go around fucking the place up.

That might not be worse then doing nothing… but its easier said then done.

Arming and training a sufficient number of the locals would require an immense commitment of resources, particularly trained manpower, trying to turn a bunch of people who literally live in mud huts to fight anything like modern war is not easy. That’s why most African wars are genocidal, even if one side doesn’t particularly want to wipe out the other one. The distances, populations and general lack of developed civilization leave genocidal tactics are pretty much the only thing anyone can pull off as a viable war fighting strategy. The Germans managed to turn African tribesman into soldiers the equal of any in WW1, but they also were absurdly selective about recruitment, relied totally on German officers and trained for years before the outbreak of war. Other colonial powers had much less success in sub-Saharan Africa.

Darfur is also totally devoid of any kind of local government or organization or even big towns so administering and supporting such a local force would be immensely difficult. Without organization and training, arming locals is just giving more guns to the Janjaweed, who tend to travel in pretty large groups that aren’t going to be stopped by just a few people with rifles. Many of the local forces might just end up fighting each other.

What’s more, the end result of a successful arming of the population in Darfur would simply mean a third Sudanese civil war. The Janjaweed would be supplement on the ground by Sudans actual highly inept military, which none the less can field tanks, artillery and jet fighters. The only way to avoid this would be to strike some kind of autonomy deal, which is just endless trouble on its own (see the history of Sudans previous wars) or to break up the country outright. Neither solution is likely to be accepted without a full scale war anyway.

[Thanas]

The Germans managed to turn African tribesman into soldiers the equal of any in WW1, but they also were absurdly selective about recruitment, relied totally on German officers and trained for years before the outbreak of war. Other colonial powers had much less success in sub-Saharan Africa.

They also selected members from tribes who had a long tradition of warfare and paid them very well. I am not sure those conditions can be met in Darfur.

[[R_H]]

UN extends Darfur peace mission

The UN Security Council has renewed the mandate for peacekeepers in Sudan's Darfur region for another year after resolving last-minute differences.

The decision had been complicated by the International Criminal Court's move to indict Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir for alleged genocide.

The resolution notes an African Union request for the Council to postpone the ICC's work but does no more than that.

Fourteen of the Council's 15 members voted in favour but the US abstained.

The African Union had asked the UN Security Council to use its power to suspend the ICC's proceedings for a year, saying prosecuting Sudan's president would set back peace in Darfur.

Libya and South Africa, backed by Russia and China, wanted to include this in the resolution on renewing the mandate.

But the UK, France, the US and central American countries objected, saying there should be no link between the peacekeeping force and whatever the court might do.

Faced with the prospect that the force might not have its mandate renewed, a compromise was found after much wrangling.

The new resolution takes note of the African Union's position without committing the Security Council to doing anything.

But the US abstained, saying for the Security Council to even talk about a possible delay of justice sent the wrong signal.

The report, published by the Save Darfur coalition, says helicopters are vital to the success of the mission but no country has offered a single one of the aircraft.

The report says a militia attack three weeks ago on a UN-AU convoy that left seven peacekeepers dead and 19 wounded underscores the critical importance of helicopters.

How would helicopters have helped against the attack on the convoy? As a rapid reaction force? Why doesn't the UN just buy or lease some surplus helicopters?

[Axis Kast]

Arming and training a sufficient number of the locals would require an immense commitment of resources, particularly trained manpower, trying to turn a bunch of people who literally live in mud huts to fight anything like modern war is not easy.

“Anything like modern war,” yes.

Providing the means for incipient resistance that raises the deterrence capacity of larger population centers? Probably.

Darfur is awash with guns, and has been since the late 1970s. Most of the male population, black African or Arab, is conversant in the concepts that go along with that kind of environment. The situation has tended to favor transhumant Arab populations, however. (Partly due to a concerted attempt to seize the personal weapons of black Africans in the past, and partly due to government provision of firearms to the Janjaweed proxies.)

Darfur is also totally devoid of any kind of local government or organization or even big towns so administering and supporting such a local force would be immensely difficult.

Tribal structure remains fairly strong – to the point that there have even been unofficial “reconciliation” conferences between authority figures that do speak for relatively large numbers of dependents. The International Crisis Group sometimes has minor commentary on these developments.

The historic experience with limited self-government is there; the peaceful conditions conducive to long-term settlement are not.

In terms of command structures, Alex de Waal has suggested giving specific pre-existing authorities incentive to reign in their men by having the international community recognize them as preeminent within a hierarchy. Boiled down, that means that traditional leadership would be recognized as the responsible parties when armed members of their retinue act out.

Without organization and training, arming locals is just giving more guns to the Janjaweed, who tend to travel in pretty large groups that aren’t going to be stopped by just a few people with rifles. Many of the local forces might just end up fighting each other.

I think that making “harder” targets would have greater deterrent effect.

I agree that a lot of the local forces would pursue their own vendettas. None of the approximately thirty rebel groups really have viable constituencies, and many operate by preying on whomever they can find.

What’s more, the end result of a successful arming of the population in Darfur would simply mean a third Sudanese civil war. The Janjaweed would be supplement on the ground by Sudans actual highly inept military, which none the less can field tanks, artillery and jet fighters.

To all intents and purposes, a civil war is already ongoing. Khartoum exercises very tenuous control over Darufr, and has never really sunk administrative roots.

The ability of the Sudanese Army to intervene in Darfur may also be somewhat limited. First, many of the recruits are black Africans who have purposely been kept away from that front. Hence the Arab militias. Second, the army is now needed throughout the country to ensure the efficient operation of center-periphery extraction and to stare down the South.

The “answer” for Darfur may lie in virtual secession – taking the Africans out of the electoral calculus so as to allow the government to make deals with all the other sectors of the Sudanese nation (the South and the East already look to have been taken care of). This leaves a potentially gerrymandered Arab rump in Darfur, as well as the black African population, which can be made the subject of a dedicated relief effort.

How would helicopters have helped against the attack on the convoy? As a rapid reaction force? Why doesn't the UN just buy or lease some surplus helicopters?

Presumably, the U.N. would have sortied helicopters as fast-response units. Given the distances involved, I'm skeptical. Aggressive use of attack helicopters has worked in the Congo, however. And deploying extra troops in times of crisis is also a viable option when you have helicopter transport.

There is currently a global shortage of helicopters due to the GWoT, not to mention that huge numbers are needed if they want to make an impact on Darfur.