U.S.-Poland reach deal on anti-missile defense system

[Loner]

AP story

US, Poland agree to anti-missile defense deal

By VANESSA GERA and MONIKA SCISLOWSKA – 1 hour ago

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Poland and the United States struck a deal Thursday that will strengthen military ties and put an American missile interceptor base in Poland, a plan that has infuriated Moscow and sparked fears in Europe of a new arms race.

"We have crossed the Rubicon," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said, referring to U.S. consent to Poland's demands after more than 18 months of negotiations.

Washington says the planned system, which is not yet operational, is needed to protect the U.S. and Europe from possible attacks by missile-armed "rogue states" like Iran. The Kremlin, however, feels it is aimed at Russia's missile force and warns it will worsen tensions.

U.S. officials also said the timing of the deal was not meant to antagonize Russians leaders at a time when relations already are strained over the recent fighting between Russia and Georgia over the South Ossetia region.

In an interview on news channel TVN24, Tusk said the United States agreed to help augment Poland's defenses with Patriot missiles in exchange for placing 10 missile defense interceptors in the eastern European country.

He said the deal also includes a "mutual commitment" between the two nations to come to each other's assistance "in case of trouble."

That clause appeared to be a direct reference to Russia, which has threatened to aim its nuclear-armed missiles at Poland — a former Soviet satellite — if it hosts the U.S. site.

Poland has all along been guided by fears of a newly resurgent Russia, an anxiety that has intensified with Russia's offensive in Georgia, a former Soviet republic. The incursion, along with the bombing of military posts and airfields inside Georgia, has underlined a palpable fear in the region of Russia's renewed vigor and confidence.

In past days, Polish leaders said the war justified Poland's demands that it get additional security guarantees from Washington in exchange for allowing the anti-missile base on its soil.

Talking about the "mutual commitment" part of the agreement, Tusk said that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would be too slow in coming to Poland's defense if threatened and that the bloc would take "days, weeks to start that machinery."

"Poland and the Poles do not want to be in alliances in which assistance comes at some point later — it is no good when assistance comes to dead people. Poland wants to be in alliances where assistance comes in the very first hours of — knock on wood — any possible conflict," Tusk said.

He said that armed with Patriot missiles, Poles "will be able to effectively protect our territory."

But after the deal was announced, both American and Polish officials sought to play down any connection to the Georgian war.

"This is not linked to the situation in Georgia," the chief U.S. negotiator, John Rood, told The Associated Press, after the pact was initialed. "We had made these arrangements for this round of negotiations before the conflict in Georgia, and so we just merely continued with the schedule we had."

In Washington, White House spokeswoman Dana Perino also said the timing was not meant to tweak Russia. "We believe that missile defense is a substantial contribution to NATO's collective security," she said.

In initial reaction from Russia, the parliamentary foreign affairs committee chairman, Konstantin Kosachev, was quoted by Interfax news agency as saying the agreement will spark "a real rise in tensions in Russian-American relations." He repeated the view that defense shield really targets Russia's arsenal.

After Tusk announced the deal, it went through an initial signing ceremony late Thursday in Warsaw, but still needs approval from Poland's government and parliament and a final signing by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at a yet unspecified date.

At the signing, Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski said the deal would strengthen the U.S., Poland and NATO.

Earlier this year, NATO endorsed the U.S. plan to expand its global missile defense shield with the planned site in Poland and a linked radar tracking base in the Czech Republic.

"Only evil people should be afraid of our agreement," Sikorski told reporters after Rood and his Polish counterpart, Andrzej Kremer, initialed the agreement at the Foreign Ministry.

The U.S. has also reached an agreement with the Czech Republic's government to place the radar component of the missile defense shield in that country. That deal still needs approval from Czech parliament.

Associated Press writer Foster Klug in Washington contributed to this report.

Did the recent issues with Georgia, push Poland into it?

[Block]

The BBC article I posted at almost exactly the same time says that Poland had already agreed to it last week before any of this happened, they just hadn't worked out the details yet.

[Mr Bean]

Lonestar's link is pretty, he wins the lock the thread game.

[chitoryu12]

Lonestar's link is pretty, he wins the lock the thread game.

Lonestar is over thataway *points to Testing*

[Medic]

Last I checked about 2 months ago, the ONLY thing slowing down the deal was just how much Poland would get out of it.

It basically went like this "you (the U.S.) get to put missiles in our country but we (Poland) want X, Y and Z other defense-related items to modernize our armed forces." I don't believe the "stalled" talks were anything more than that.

[Darth Wong]

Did the recent issues with Georgia, push Poland into it?

More like the other way around. This is one of the things that convinced Russia that they need to be more aggressive. It's been coming for a long time.

[Ace Pace]

And of course, half the local press here is reporting that Russia claims "poland has painted a target on it's back. 100% chance it's now a target."

Gee, what a suprise.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

The deal was pretty much a foregone conclusion, and I believe they indicated as much months ago. The question of course is the devil in the details.

[Pelranius]

What sort of military aid does Poland get in the bargain and how much is to be subsidized by us the US taxpayers?

[Uraniun235]

And of course, half the local press here is reporting that Russia claims "poland has painted a target on it's back. 100% chance it's now a target."

Gee, what a suprise.

That sounds absolutely win-win from a cold US perspective. They might shoot down Russian missiles, and they'll absorb even more of the Russian arsenal as they attempt to neutralize the ABM system.

That said, as a Polish civilian I might be slightly less happy about it. Then again, I might not; I don't know exactly what cultural forces are at work there. Any word on what the Polish public tends to think of all this?

[Enigma]

And of course, half the local press here is reporting that Russia claims "poland has painted a target on it's back. 100% chance it's now a target."

Gee, what a suprise.

Plus that general said that if Russia attacked Poland it would be with nukes.

[TimothyC]

Last night's issue of Nightwatch

Has the following (last entry on the page):

Poland-US: Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in a televised interview today that the United States has reached a deal with Poland which would allow 10 ballistic missile defense interceptors to be based in Poland in exchange for aid to augment Polish defenses. An American Army garrison will also reportedly be stationed in Poland by 2012.

Shortly after Russian forces entered South Ossetia, Tusk fired his foreign minister and revived stalled talks on the missile defense shield. Poland wants an American military presence as a surety that an attack on Poland is an attack on Americans. About six other eastern European countries want a similar arrangement.

[PeZook]

That said, as a Polish civilian I might be slightly less happy about it. Then again, I might not; I don't know exactly what cultural forces are at work there. Any word on what the Polish public tends to think of all this?

The Polish public are overwhelmingly against the shield, last I checked the polls showed 50% of the public were strongly opposed to the base.

Of course, that's because the people think the shield means OMG RUSSIA WILL AIM MISSILES AT US. As if they don't already: I'm 100% convinced Russia has nuclear attack plans which involve the destruction of major railways hubs and NATO airbases in Poland, for example. Compared to this, one missile base away from major cities doesn't change much, but the guaranteees we supposedly got from the US (that an attack on Polish soil will be treated like an attack on the US itself) have very serious (positive) implications for our security.

There's also talk the US will sell us Patriot missiles for the cheap, and station one battery permanently in Poland.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

There's also talk the US will sell us Patriot missiles for the cheap, and station one battery permanently in Poland.

How can one battery constitute as enough? At best the defence of one city only.

[PeZook]

How can one battery constitute as enough? At best the defence of one city only.

Well, they proposed to station one battery four months in a year at first

One permanent battery+discount on others sounds pretty good.

[Sea Skimmer]

Russia would always nuke Poland if it came to WW3, ABM base or not. If a war goes nuclear, Russia is going to nuke the rest of Europe no matter what. It would be absolutely intolerable from the Russian viewpoint to ever allow Europe to escape being heavily damaged and then left free to overrun mother Russia as she rebuilds from the thermonuclear holocaust. Certainly no NATO state, let alone one which already has such close ties as Poland is going to escape being hit.

Heck during the Cold War the Soviets even had plans to nuke their own Warsaw Pact allies including Poland, in the event Russia was heavily damaged, to avoid the same kind of threat. Of course such plans would have been unnecessary because NATO would have done the nuking already.

The main outcome of this will probably just be that Russia pulls out of the INF treaty, so it can aim smaller cheaper nuclear missiles at NATO.

[PeZook]

Russia would always nuke Poland if it came to WW3, ABM base or not. If a war goes nuclear, Russia is going to nuke the rest of Europe no matter what. It would be absolutely intolerable from the Russian viewpoint to ever allow Europe to escape being heavily damaged and then left free to overrun mother Russia as she rebuilds from the thermonuclear holocaust. Certainly no NATO state, let alone one which already has such close ties as Poland is going to escape being hit.

Well, duh. Of course, the idiots protesting the shield think that not building it in Poland will make Russia magically not notice Poland (a NATO member housing NATO airbases and some major rail hubs, plus three sea ports) in case of nuclear war.

Really, if they're worried about getting hit by nukes, they should campaign for the immediate deconstruction of all airports in Poland

Really, if I was that paranoid, I'd be worried far more about living in Wroclaw than having a single extra military base for Russians to target (especially since, you know, the interceptor base is going to be pretty wel defended, thus soaking up warheads which would otherwise hit less important targets surrounded by civilians)

Naturally, there are also some people who think the base actually houses offensive missiles and that the US wants nothing more than a full-scale nuclear war with Russia.

[Sea Skimmer]

There's also talk the US will sell us Patriot missiles for the cheap, and station one battery permanently in Poland.

How can one battery constitute as enough? At best the defence of one city only.

One would presume the battery will defend the ABM silos so that Poland doesn’t have to commit its own resources to do so. You might not be aware, but in the Cold War almost no USAF air bases on NATO member territory had any US manned air defenses. Instead they were defended by the host nations own forces, abet sometimes with equipment purchased by the US for them to man (Rapier in Britain, Roland II in Germany). I would presume this is a similar kind of deal, but with some actual US air defense forces thrown in to demonstrate US commitment.

We’ll just have to wait for details to know more, but it’s pretty reasonable to presume the Poland will be getting at least several billion dollars in upgrades and new equipment. Not just Patriot units, but also larger long ranged radars and command and control equipment to ensure those Patriot batteries get early warning.

[K. A. Pital]

The main outcome of this will probably just be that Russia pulls out of the INF treaty, so it can aim smaller cheaper nuclear missiles at NATO.

That is true, the mobile cheap small range BMs, like Oka (9P71 - 9M714), which were prohibited. They're a good answer - small, mobile, easily transportable and with a good range for nukes.

[Ma Deuce]

The Polish public are overwhelmingly against the shield, last I checked the polls showed 50% of the public were strongly opposed to the base.

Not anymore:

Polish support for missile deal soars

By VANESSA GERA

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Poland's foreign minister said the country's citizens "have the right to feel threatened" by Russian rhetoric over plans to install a U.S. missile defense base here, according to an interview published Monday.

Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski also believes NATO should take a stand on the matter, the interview in the Dziennik daily said.

A new poll, meanwhile, said Polish support for the missile defense pact with the U.S. has soared following Russia's military campaign in Georgia and its threats against Poland.

Negotiations between Washington and Warsaw on placing 10 missile interceptors in Poland began in early 2007. Both sides struck a deal last week during the Russia-Georgia conflict.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is expected in Poland this week to sign it.

A day after the deal, a leading Russian general warned that Poland was exposing itself to attack — even a nuclear one — by accepting the missile base.

On Sunday, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the Russian comments were "probably fairly empty rhetoric."

Sikorski, asked during the interview whether he considered the threats to be empty, replied: "To the contrary."

"If Russia threatens Poland, then we Poles have the right to feel threatened," he was quoted as saying. "But this type of statement from Russian generals is a problem for all of NATO and I expect the alliance to take a stand on this."

The signing ceremony with Rice will take place Wednesday, Sikorski said. Rice will fly to Warsaw after an emergency NATO meeting Tuesday in Brussels, Belgium, which Sikorski will attend.

Moscow fiercely opposes the missile defense deal, claiming that the planned U.S. system will target Russia. The U.S. strongly denies that, saying the system is designed to protect against threats from countries like Iran, and would in any case be powerless against Russia's arsenal of missiles.

In return for the deal, Poland won a U.S. promise to set up an additional garrison with a battery of Patriot missiles. Poland sought that system in hopes of protecting itself from a possible Russian threat.

The U.S. also plans to set up a linked radar installation in the Czech Republic.

According to the new poll, 58 percent of those surveyed support the missile defense plan — compared with 30 percent in March 2007, early on in the negotiations. The poll was published in the Rzeczpospolita daily.

It was the first time a majority of Poles surveyed have backed the U.S. missile defense plan, according to lead researcher Maciej Siejewicz from the Gfk Polonia polling agency.

The poll said 37 percent believe the deal is bad for Poland.

Gfk Polonia questioned 500 people Saturday, two days after the missile deal was struck and a day after the Russian general made his threat. The survey had a margin of error of up to 4.5 percentage points.

Wow, that was a dramatic turnaround, more evidence that while Russia won the military conflict in Georgia, it lost the propaganda war very badly.