McCain Campaign: Buyer's remorse with Palin?

[Kodiak]

Am I the only one who thinks her ambitions are totally unrealistic? I can possibly see her winning the Republican nomination in 2012 (assuming the party still exists in its present form), but the general election? Incredible.

There is no way Palin will be their 2012 candidate. After this election she will be dropped like a hot potato and return to obscurity. The only hope Republicans have in 2012 is if they choose a totally new candidate, not recycle the current hacks.

I think Romney still has enough backing within the party and strong enough credentials for a 2012 run. It seems to me that unless Huck goes back in he could pick up a lot of the evangelical crowd that isn't afraid of "Teh Moarmonz!"

[Darth Wong]

What exactly killed Romney's candidacy again? I don't recall. Were the WASPs worried about his Mormon background? Or did he get caught doing a lot of flip-flopping on issues?

[Knife]

I think Romney still has enough backing within the party and strong enough credentials for a 2012 run. It seems to me that unless Huck goes back in he could pick up a lot of the evangelical crowd that isn't afraid of "Teh Moarmonz!"

Lol, you're mormon right? That explains that.

What exactly killed Romney's candidacy again? I don't recall. Were the WASPs worried about his Mormon background? Or did he get caught doing a lot of flip-flopping on issues?

Romeny had all the good values and characteristics for the Conservative Movment except he was a mormon which was unacceptable to the Babtists. Enter Huckabee who may have had all the god cards Romney had, less charisma, crappy hair, yet had more bible thumpers behind him than the scant couple milion Mormons in the US.

[Gil Hamilton]

I think it was that being a conservative governor of Massachusetts is like being the skinniest kid at fat camp to alot of Republicans (same with being a "conservative" mayor of New York City, by the way).

I think him being a Mormon might have been part of it in some circles, possibly, but I don't think it's completely what tanked him.

[Darth Wong]

I seem to vaguely recall abortion being a major issue for him, as in "he said one thing here, and a completely different thing there."

[Flagg]

I seem to vaguely recall abortion being a major issue for him, as in "he said one thing here, and a completely different thing there."

Yeah, he wasn't against it as Governor of Massachusetts (if he had been he wouldn't have been elected), yet he was against it in the Republican primary. Basically it was a pure political calculation as to what his policy was depending on the office he was seeking.

[Stormbringer]

I think it was that being a conservative governor of Massachusetts is like being the skinniest kid at fat camp to alot of Republicans (same with being a "conservative" mayor of New York City, by the way).

I think him being a Mormon might have been part of it in some circles, possibly, but I don't think it's completely what tanked him.

Romney's religion combined with his social views were very much what scuttled his campaign. He had a strong following among the economically inclined primary voters; it was probably his only strength. There's a reason he attracted a lot of the big money in the primaries.

On the other hand, the fact that at one point he was not prepared to be a bigoted asshole played heavily against him. As you say, his moderate-right stances on issues like abortion, gay marriage, and sexual freedom all irked the religious conservatives. Had he not been a Mormon, his switch might have worked but with Huckabee and McCain both courting the more traditional Baptist base, he didn't have a chance. Inter-denominational spats aren't so significant now but with the right fuel they can still flare up. In this case, the Baptists had a couple candidates they were more willing to trust.

Of course, this had it's one influence on the general election. I think it's pretty obvious that Palin, or some one like her, was the price of the support for McCain. He had to pick an evangelical or the base wouldn't have turned out. They demanded their representative at the table and they have effective veto power in the Republican party these days.

[Guardsman Bass]

To be more specific, Mitt not only flip-flopped on a number of issues - he was caught on camera doing so in his various political races, which allowed McCain to do some devastating attacks on his credibility to the Republican base (witness A Tale of Two Mitts, for a good example). Had Huckabee not been there, he still might have pulled it out from McCain (hell, had Huckabee not run Romney would have won Iowa, McCain would have won New Hampshire, and then instead of Mitt trying to nurse his wounds and repeated losses with gobs of his own money, he and McCain probably would have gone neck-and-neck into Super Tuesday after Thompson quits and Giuliani finishes deflating).

[Justforfun000]

Considering the split-party bullshit the Republicans have to go through because of their Evangelical base, it's even more surprising to me thatDemocrats couldn't get it together for the 2004 election. Do they have anything similar in their caucus base?

[Guardsman Bass]

Considering the split-party bullshit the Republicans have to go through because of their Evangelical base, it's even more surprising to me thatDemocrats couldn't get it together for the 2004 election. Do they have anything similar in their caucus base?

Although both parties have tons of small factions within them (one description I heard of the Republican Party, with all its various groups like the gun people, evangelicals, businessmen, and know-nothings, is that it is kind of like a Feudal Army), the Republicans generally seem to come across in more conformist blocks, like "the evangelicals", the "pro-business people", the "hawks", and so forth.

With the Democrats, it's almost more like death-by-a-thousand papercuts. You have some big factions, like the unions, but then the rest of the party is spread out in to tons of small factions that are at odds with each other, like the various minority groups, the (above-mentioned) unions, the environmentalists (who are themselves fractured into a bunch of different groups), the civil libertarians (meaning pro-civil rights people and the like), the pro-business "New Democrats" (which have actually been around for a long time; they used to call them "Bourbon Democrats" 100 years ago), and the college folk (or to be more specific, the educated). It's extremely diverse both in ethnic and economic composition, but the chunks don't seem as conformist as some of the Republican factions (which also means that they don't unify as well for elections).