Aviator Steve Fossett Missing [UPDATE 10/08] Wreckage found

[Bounty]

I hate to bring up the possibility, but is there any chance this is a suicide? I've heard the idea floated before, based on Fossett being depressed at the time of the flight and him not submitting a flight plan.

Is there a sudden mechanical failure that can cause a plane to crash like that?

[Broomstick]

I hate to bring up the possibility, but is there any chance this is a suicide? I've heard the idea floated before, based on Fossett being depressed at the time of the flight and him not submitting a flight plan.

OK, I'm going to keep my temper here because I know these rumors have been floating around but the man was most certainly NOT depressed, NOT suffering from any sort of mental illness, personal trouble, or legal difficulties. Depression leading to suicide is so contrary to the man's character it is ridiculous, but of course, most people did not know the man personally (including me, but as I mentioned he was well known in the area where I fly and some of my information is from sources much closer than these rumor mongers).

As for not submitting a flight plan - in 10 years of flying I think I submitted all of five total. For flights within the United States flight plans are not required unless you are flying solely on instruments. Non-instrument flight, or "visual flight rules" or VFR is how most flights are conducted outside of the airlines. The lack of flight plan on a pleasure flight on a day with good weather in an airplane like a Decathlon is not a factor in any way.

Is there a sudden mechanical failure that can cause a plane to crash like that?

Yes, it's possible, just as it's possible for someone who gets a clean bill of health from a doctor to drop dead suddenly the next day, just sort of unlikely. As a rental airplane that Decathlon would have had an inspection every hundred hours of operation. Fossett had a reputation for being a careful pre-flighter.

An engine failure shouldn't cause a crash like that - I had an engine quit on me while flying a Citabria, which is very close to a Decathlon, and it was almost a non-event on a certain level because they do glide well for something designed to fly under power. I'm much less skilled and experienced than Mr. Fossett (who was a competitive glider pilot in addition to his other skills and thus adept at gravity-powered flight) and I had no trouble dealing with such a problem. We got the engine started again, but I have every reason to believe that I could have successfully and uneventfully landed an unpowered Citabria. My Decathlon flying friends assure me that its gliding characteristics are the same as the Citabria's. In Fossett's situation the rugged terrain greatly complicated the issue, but you can get the speed of a Decathlon down to about 50 miles an hour and they only need a very short space in which to land (particularly if the goal is "survival" rather than "intact airplane"). Even when going into trees or scrub or rough terrain, a crash from that situation is much less destructive and even survivable (I have a couple friends who landed in treetops - for them the biggest concern was falling out of the tree and getting hurt, after "landing"). It is clear from the wreckage - heck, some of the engine block was damaged/distorted - that the airplane was traveling a a HIGH rate of speed and hit head on or nearly so rather than in the flare you'd use for an emergency landing. A flared landing would tear up the bottom of the fuselage, perhaps the tail as well, and the front of the airplane if you encounter obstacles like trees and rocks but is less destructive to high set wings, however, in this instance it was clear the wings were mangled as thoroughly as anything else.

I heard someone yesterday speculate he might have lost his prop - it's very rare, but once in awhile one falls off. But, again, that shouldn't automatically crash the airplane - what you're looking at there is basically an unpowered landing. If the engine broken lose that's different story as it unbalances the airplane and makes it uncontrollable, but the engine clearly accompanied the airplane to the crash site.

Structural failure could result in a catastrophic crash, but as I've mentioned the Decathlon is a very strongly built airplane and while the airplane is shattered the NTSB seems to think it's all there are the wreck site. It's possible for one to break while in flight, but almost unheard of and I think the only such incidents were during aerobatic competitions. Fossett was not an aerobat, he had tried a little of such flying and didn't like it. He wouldn't be flying loops and rolls over mountainsides for the hell of it, and thus would not be overstressing the airplane.

Weather is a possibility - rotor winds near mountains can slam an airplane into a mountainside at high speed, and no matter how strong or powerful the airplane, or how skilled the pilot, if you get caught by one you're not in control, you're along for the ride until you're out of it or you hit something. Which is why pilots avoid them.... but as I said, despite his impressive records, most of Fossett's flying was over flat lands, not the Sierra Nevada and it is certainly possible that he screwed up while mountain flying. I mean, he'd flown over such terrain before but it was not an area where he was an expert, and even experts can get into trouble in the mountains. The NTSB is pulling together the weather records for that area on that day - if he ran into a cloud or fog he could have been in deep trouble because Decathlons don't normally carry the instruments to allow flight in poor visibility. If that happened, slamming full speed into a mountainside is no longer so puzzling.

(They do, however, typically carry g-meters which may give the NTSB a more precise record of the force of impact than they would normally get in a light airplane accident)

Or, as I mentioned, he could have had a sudden incapacitating event. It can happen, even in people who appear healthy and pass medical exams. A bird strike can also knock out a pilot - the windshield in a Decathlon is no real barrier to anything, just a thin, flimsy piece of plastic.

There are a number of things that could have caused the crash. Rumors of personal or mental troubles, however, I rate as bullshit. It just doesn't fit.

[Bounty]

OK, I'm going to keep my temper here

Guess I should have had an "allegedly" before the "depressed" bit of my post. I wasn't trying to upset you or anything.

[Broomstick]

It not YOU who upsets me about this, but rather people starting/propagating baseless rumors. There have been instances where asking about the pilot's mental state makes a lot of sense but there is nothing to indicate Fossett had any sort of mental problem. Basing such a statement even in part on the fact a flight plan was not filed is just plain ignorance of US aviation practices. Then there was that CAP bitch who had the gall to suggest he faked his death in order to hide an affair. There is nothing to indicate that there was any sort of trouble in Fossett's marriage, or that he was fooling around. It's stupid speculation about someone of some celebrity without regard to the actual situation surrounding the actual human being in question.

When discussing aviation crashes I've always tried to make it clear when I am guessing as opposed to actually talking about facts, and even when I'm guessing I try to base those speculations on something connected to reality rather than tabloid-level fantasies.

[lPeregrine]

To clarify the flight plan "issue": VFR (good weather) flight plans are optional, not required like IFR plans. They're only used for search and rescue purposes, if you're more than 30 minutes late closing it after arriving safely at your destination, they notify search and rescue to come looking for you. As long as you arrive on time, nobody even looks at your flight plan while you're in flight. Now, personally, I like that extra insurance policy for a longer trip (and I'd really like it flying in the mountains), but many pilots never file a VFR flight plan outside of their training.

It's a common annoyance among pilots that the media always finds a way to mention "not on a flight plan" even when the presence or absence of a flight plan had nothing to do with the accident. And this is just another case of it, with a violent crash in difficult terrain, a bit of an earlier start to the rescue efforts wouldn't have helped at all.



As for the rest, Broomstick is entirely right: breaking an airplane beyond the point of being able to make a safe landing is VERY hard, especially with a very simple plane like the Decathlon. The important controls are all moved by simple cable connections to the stick/rudder pedals. Lose the engine, lose every instrument on the airplane, lose the electrical system, all at the same time, and you'll still have complete control over it all the way to the ground.

So it's possible something could break and result in a crash like this, but most pilots should spend their time worrying about more likely events, such as in-flight meteor impacts.

[lPeregrine]

edit: missed a sentence:

According to the articles, Fossett was only going on a short trip. In this case, it's even less likely that he would have bothered with a flight plan.

[Broomstick]

He did, however, tell someone he was going and about when he expected to be back - which is why he was reported missing the same day he disappeared. That sort of "informal flight plan" is just as valuable as the more formal kind. Search and rescue will be launched if someone reports a plane overdue whether or not any sort of flight plan was filed.

[FSTargetDrone]

Just to wrap things up with this thread instead of making a new one, here is a story confirming the remains found as indeed being Fossett's:

Bones near crash site are Fossett's, officials say

DNA tests confirm that millionaire adventurer died when plane crashed

updated 18 minutes ago

MADERA, Calif. - Authorities said Monday they have positively identified some of Steve Fossett's remains: two large bones found a half-mile from where the adventurer's plane crashed in California's Sierra Nevada.

Madera County Sheriff John Anderson said DNA tests conducted by the state Department of Justice positively identified the bones as the remains of the millionaire aviator who disappeared last year.

Anderson has declined to say what bones were found, saying he didn't want to cause the family further anguish.

Fossett's widow, Peggy Fossett, released a statement thanking authorities for their work.

"I am hopeful that the DNA identification puts a definitive end to all of the speculation surrounding Steve's death. This has been an incredibly difficult time for me, and I am thankful to everyone who helped bring closure to this tragedy," she said.

The bones were discovered last week, along with Fossett's tennis shoes and Illinois driver's license, which had animal bite marks on them.

Fossett disappeared in September 2007 after taking off from a Nevada ranch owned by hotel magnate Barron Hilton for what was supposed to be a short pleasure flight. Law enforcement, fellow aviators and others launched a costly search that covered 20,000 square miles but turned up empty.

The wreckage of Fossett's plane was discovered last month after a hiker walking off trail in the Sierra Nevada near Mammoth Lakes stumbled across Fossett's pilot's license and a wad of weathered $100 bills. Authorities said Fossett likely died on impact.

The National Transportation Safety Board is investigating the cause of the crash.