Outstanding Senate Races

[Strider]

The Convicted Felon

Georgia Runoff?

Minnesota Recount

I can't find a good source for Oregon, but according to the NY Times numbers the Dems are down 0.7% with 30% of the vote outstanding.

Alaska Senate Race: Ted Stevens Election Likely Despite Convictions
by Steven Kane

Alaska Senator Ted Stevens, who was found guilty of seven felonies seemingly just days before the election, looks to be headed back to the Senate thanks to Alaskan voters.

The 84-year old, once honored as the "Alaskan of the Century", has been in the Senate for 40 years and now has a 4,000 vote margin over Democrat Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, which equates to two percentage points.

The tally is by no means complete as the state must still count about 40,000 absentee ballots and another 9,000 uncounted early votes and possibly the addition of thousands of other provisional ballots that have yet to be certified as being from qualified voters. The count does not have to be finalized by the state Elections Division for 15 days and it looks like they will use up that entire time.

Recent polls in the race showed the incumbent down by up to 8 percentage points and now it looks like he will instead become the only Senator in history to be sent back to the U.S. Senate after being found guilty of criminal charges.

Stevens has elected to appeal the judgements against him and maintains his innocence while the governor of Alaska, now former Vice-Presidential candidate Sarah Palin, has said that she believes Stevens should step down. Even Mitch McConnell, who also won his re-election bid, has said that there is "zero chance that a senator with a felony conviction would not be expelled from the Senate."

If both the conviction and Stevens's lead in the polls hold up, once the Senator re-signs or is expelled by a two-thirds vote, a special election would be held to fill the seat.

ATLANTA (AP) — Georgia's U.S. Senate race could be headed for a runoff.

With thousands of absentee ballots still being counted, Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss has fallen below 50 percent mark.

Chambliss needs 50 percent-plus-one of the votes to avoid a runoff. The Associated Press shows him with 49.8 percent of the vote. Democratic challenger Jim Martin has 46.8 percent. Libertarian Allen Buckley is pulling 3.4 percent.

Martin is preparing for a runoff. He'll host a news conference later this morning to outline his plans.

The Chambliss camp said they're still studying the returns. They planned their own news conference to respond.

Coleman claims victory; automatic recount likely next step

Sen. Norm Coleman said today that he has won reelection for a second term from Minnesota, and urged Democratic challenger Al Franken to abandon any pursuit of a recount.

By KEVIN DUCHSCHERE and PAUL WALSHAND CURT BROWN, Star Tribune staff writers

Sen. Norm Coleman late this morning declared victory for a second term from Minnesota, even as the wheels are churning toward an automatic recount of the nearly 3 million votes cast in his battle with Democrat Al Franken.

The Republican, whose margin in the unofficial state tally stands at 725 votes, said from his headquarters in St. Paul that he is "humbled and grateful for the victory that the voters gave us last night."

He then said Franken should abandon any pursuit of a recount, saying that "the prospect of overturning 725 votes is extremely, extremely, extremely remote." Franken could request that there not be a recount, but there is no hint that he would make such a move.

As for the recount itself, Secretary of State Mark Ritchie said he expects "several weeks" to pass before it is complete.

Coleman's declaration was met with applause from his family, standing to his right, and the supporters before him. His campaign website stamped his comments as visitors are met with the word "VICTORY" standing tall with an American flag in the background.

Coleman went on to praise the state for its reputation of running clean elections. He also noted Franken's right to seek a recount, but added that "I would step back" if he were similarly trailing.

Speaking afterward on behalf of Franken, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak scolded Coleman for his embrace of victory, telling KSTP-TV that "we won't know what Minnesotans wanted" until the recount is complete. "There's a law here; we follow the law," Rybak said.

Meanwhile, the campaign of Franken is starting the process of compiling reports of voting irregularities, as Minnesota officials today prepared for the painstaking process of recounting ballots.

Is there any chance left the Democrats get a supermajority? I think the biggest stumbling block at this point is Alaska.

[Mr Bean]

They have 56 plus Lib now correct? So they are three away from 60. Alright I say now they get 58(Win the Georgia run off by having Obama there) and Frankin wins the recount. Fine you lose Alaskia. Cut Liberman lose your not going to get to 60 so deal with your 58 solid D votes and find two Republicans to compromise with you. Someone like Hagel who does not give a@#$@ anyway, that's one vote.

[Strider]

They have 56 plus Lib now correct? So they are three away from 60. Alright I say now they get 58(Win the Georgia run off by having Obama there) and Frankin wins the recount. Fine you lose Alaskia. Cut Liberman lose your not going to get to 60 so deal with your 58 solid D votes and find two Republicans to compromise with you. Someone like Hagel who does not give a@#$@ anyway, that's one vote.

They have 55 + The Libster. They need all four for 60.

[Mr Bean]

They have 56 plus Lib now correct? So they are three away from 60. Alright I say now they get 58(Win the Georgia run off by having Obama there) and Frankin wins the recount. Fine you lose Alaskia. Cut Liberman lose your not going to get to 60 so deal with your 58 solid D votes and find two Republicans to compromise with you. Someone like Hagel who does not give a@#$@ anyway, that's one vote.

They have 55 + The Libster. They need all four for 60.

538 gives them Oregon which is why I have it at 56+ Libby

[Medic]

I can't fucking believe how fucked up Alaska is. We needn't anymore even invoke Sarah Palin!
Who the FUCK elects a convicted felon? I don't care HOW old he is and that he'll never serve.

Self-serving, federal-aid-huffing, bible-thumping, secessionist fucks.

[Slacker]

The Alaska thing just completely baffles me, especially given the polling post-conviction.

As for Lieberman, unless he offers his first born to Reid or something, I think he's out of the caucus. I think the Dems would rather have 59 and get Hagel/Snowe/Specter to side with them when they need it than have 60 and deal with his shenanigans.

[CaptainChewbacca]

I can't fucking believe how fucked up Alaska is. We needn't anymore even invoke Sarah Palin!
Who the FUCK elects a convicted felon? I don't care HOW old he is and that he'll never serve.

Self-serving, federal-aid-huffing, bible-thumping, secessionist fucks.

I hear rumblings that if Stevens wins, he'll step down and Palin may take his seat. That'd be... entertaining.

[Medic]

I can't fucking believe how fucked up Alaska is. We needn't anymore even invoke Sarah Palin!
Who the FUCK elects a convicted felon? I don't care HOW old he is and that he'll never serve.

Self-serving, federal-aid-huffing, bible-thumping, secessionist fucks.

I hear rumblings that if Stevens wins, he'll step down and Palin may take his seat. That'd be... entertaining.

Huh. Yeah.

Actually, I'm not sure I'm against that. Her brief stint with celebrity thanks to her and McCain's presidential bid might bring some much-needed scrutiny to earmarks headed Alaska's way. Ted Stevens virtually made a career out of doing that for Alaska and I'm willing to bet money his campaign ads sounded something like "for 40 years I've fought for you, will you do the same for me?"

[Losonti Tokash]

Someone like Hagel who does not give a@#$@ anyway, that's one vote.

Hagel didn't seek re-election, since it turns out that being an actual maverick pisses off the Republican base. He's going to be replaced by the very Republican former governor of Nebraska and Bush's former Secretary of Agriculture, Mike Johanns.

[The Original Nex]

There are still some Republicans left who will compromise with the Democrats, on some issues at least. Collins, Snowe, Lugar, and Spector are those who immediately come to mind, and who will still be in office in the next Congress. While 60 would have been nice, 56-58 plus Lieb is still much better than the 51-49 split we have now. It helps to neuter Lieberman's stranglehold on the HomelandSecurity Committee and his general clout. Even if we don't take ANY of the four remaining Senatorial toss-ups I'm happy enough with the results, if dumbfounded at the stupidity of Alaskans.

[AK_Jedi]

I can't fucking believe how fucked up Alaska is. We needn't anymore even invoke Sarah Palin!
Who the FUCK elects a convicted felon? I don't care HOW old he is and that he'll never serve.

Self-serving, federal-aid-huffing, bible-thumping, secessionist fucks.

Hell, I live here, and I can hardly believe we did it . It's insane really, how addicted to federal aid everyone around here is. I really have no answer for this.....I am ashamed of my state.

[Gigaliel]

Meanwhile in Minnesota

State girds for recount in Coleman-Franken battle

By KEVIN DUCHSCHERE, PAUL WALSH and CURT BROWN, Star Tribune

November 5, 2008

Sen. Norm Coleman late this morning declared victory for a second term from Minnesota, even as the wheels are churning toward an automatic recount of the nearly 3 million votes cast in his battle with Democrat Al Franken.

The Republican, whose margin in the unofficial state tally stands at 462 votes as of 2:15 p.m. today, said from his headquarters in St. Paul that he is "humbled and grateful for the victory that the voters gave us last night."

The Secretary of State's website has adjusted the margin several times today. At about noon, the gap was 725 in Coleman's favor.

Coleman added that Franken should abandon any pursuit of a recount, saying that "the prospect of overturning [the necessary] votes is extremely, extremely, extremely remote." Franken could request that there not be a recount, but there is no hint that he would make such a move.

Franken spokeswoman Colleen Murray said that the campaign would have no further comment today, beyond the challenger's statement this morning that he intended to seek a recount.

"We're kind of entering the unknown a little bit, trying to rest and figure out what [comes next]," she said.

As for the recount itself, Secretary of State Mark Ritchie said he expects "several weeks" to pass before it is complete.

Coleman's declaration was met with applause from his family, standing to his right, and the supporters before him. His campaign website stamped his comments as visitors are met with the word "VICTORY" standing tall with an American flag in the background.

Coleman went on to praise the state for its reputation of running clean elections. He also noted Franken's right to seek a recount, but added that "I would step back" if he were similarly trailing.

Speaking afterward on behalf of Franken, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak scolded Coleman for his embrace of victory, telling KSTP-TV that "we won't know what Minnesotans wanted" until the recount is complete. "There's a law here; we follow the law," Rybak said.

Meanwhile, the campaign of Franken is taking down reports of voting irregularities, as Minnesota officials today prepared for the painstaking process of recounting ballots.

With 100 percent of the 4,130 precincts reporting, Coleman had an unofficial margin of a barely more than 700 votes out of nearly 2.9 million cast. Recounts are required in races with a winning margin of less than one-half of 1 percent. Coleman and Frankern earned 42 percent of the vote. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley collected 15 percent.

Early this morning, Franken made a statement that he intends to exercise his right to a recount. He said his campaign is investigating alleged voting irregularities at some polling places in Minneapolis, and that "a recount could change the outcome significantly." Minneapolis delivered a heavy vote for Franken.

"Let me be clear: Our goal is to ensure that every vote is properly counted," Franken said.

Franken and members of his campaign team were catching up on sleep, but spokeswoman Colleen Murray said that media staffers were planning to monitor Coleman's statement and meet afterward to assess the situation.

Ritchie, a DFLer, said today that a recount wouldn't begin until mid-November at the earliest and would probably stretch into December. It would involve local election officials from around the state.

"No matter how fast people would like it, the emphasis is on accuracy," Ritchie said.

Ritchie's office ran a speedy recount in September of a close primary race for a Supreme Court seat. That took just three days, but Ritchie said the Senate race is entirely different.

"Having a ton of lawyers and other partisans injected into the process, that will change the dynamics of it," Ritchie said.

Ritchie has scheduled a news conference for this afternoon and is expected to speak about the recount.

After declaring Coleman the winner before 7 a.m. today, the Associated Press about two hours later uncalled the race, saying the declaration had been premature.

Exit polls showed that Franken was helped by a wave of Democrats -- including large numbers of first-time voters -- who had already delivered the state's electoral votes to Democratic President-elect Barack Obama.

But Franken struggled throughout the evening to hang on to all of the Democratic surge, losing some to ticket-splitters who opted for Coleman, particularly in the suburbs.

I find it slightly presumptuous to say a recount is unneeded with a margin of 700. I mean come on. Of course with how long the recount will take and Chambliss's runoff, this Senate election is season is going to be loooong.

[Gigaliel]

Or I'm illiterate and posted something in the OP. Durrrr.

[Dominus Atheos]

Self-serving, federal-aid-huffing, bible-thumping, secessionist fucks.

Don't forget, they have the highest rate of incest in the nation, so you can add inbred on to that.

[CmdrWilkens]

I can't fucking believe how fucked up Alaska is. We needn't anymore even invoke Sarah Palin!
Who the FUCK elects a convicted felon? I don't care HOW old he is and that he'll never serve.

Self-serving, federal-aid-huffing, bible-thumping, secessionist fucks.

I hear rumblings that if Stevens wins, he'll step down and Palin may take his seat. That'd be... entertaining.

Except that Palin can't "take" his seat. In the event that he resigns Alska law specifies that the governor must call for a special election within 60-90 days of the effective date of resignation. So she can't appoint herself to the seat and would actually have to run for it against a shifting mood (her favorables have dropped 20-25 points since September). She probably could pull it off but without her hand at the wheel the Troopergate Investigation is likely to come roaring back full force after the legislature reconvenes.

[CaptainChewbacca]

I thought they already had multiple groups make findings in the tropper incident.

[The Original Nex]

The Oregonian has called it for Merkley. Seems a bit hasty, but seeing as remaining counties are solidly Democratic, this should be a lock.

Hello 6th Senate pickup!

[CmdrWilkens]

I thought they already had multiple groups make findings in the tropper incident.

The investigator for the legislature has made his report but the ligislature is not in seesion to ACT on the report. At the same time the Personnel Board which suppossedly "cleared" her of wrongdoing is packed with her cronies which is the reason why the legislature sought an independent investigation to begin with. Without the naitonal Republican apparatus directing the state party its entirely possible that they will fall back to infighting and devour Palin as a sacrifice. They were already starting to sour on her for being an opporunist in how she went after the last governor and how she dropped Stevens and young like hot potatoes (though they both now seem poised for re-election). Simply put once the media spotlight goes away she will be under local scrutiny which is far less discerning and cowed than the national media.

[Strider]

AP calls Oregon Senate race for Dems

Now the balance is at 55-40-2 with 3 undecided. The only one of those three with a shot at being known in the near future is Alaska, the subject of many conflicting rumors and reports.

Some relevant bits to Alaska discussion have been bolded.

Ted Stevens holds narrow lead in Alaska Senate race

The contest featuring the convicted senator is one of several still undecided. A runoff is possible in Georgia, and there will be a recount in Minnesota.
By Richard Simon and Kim Murphy
November 6, 2008
Reporting from Washington and Seattle -- Despite his conviction last month on corruption charges, Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Republican in the U.S. Senate, clung tenuously to his Alaska seat Wednesday as congressional Democrats exulted in election gains across the country.

Although the Democrats expanded their majorities in the House and the Senate, the outcome of a number of races could be in doubt for several weeks.

The Georgia Senate race appeared headed for a December runoff, and the Oregon Senate race was too close to call. In Minnesota, GOP Sen. Norm Coleman apparently eked out a victory over Democrat Al Franken, but a recount is required because the margin was less than 0.5%.

In the political drama unfolding in Alaska, Stevens -- in perhaps Tuesday's biggest surprise -- narrowly led Democrat Mark Begich.

If Stevens wins, he is likely to face an effort by his Senate colleagues to expel him. That has generated speculation that the state's newest political star, Gov. Sarah Palin, this year's Republican vice presidential nominee, would seek to succeed Stevens, who is 84 and has been in the Senate since 1968.

Democrats expanded their control in the 100-member Senate to at least 56 seats. They knocked off Republican Sens. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina and John E. Sununu of New Hampshire, while losing no incumbents of their own. However, they appeared to be falling short of the 60 seats needed to overcome Republican-led filibusters.

In Minnesota, Coleman led Franken, who rose to fame as a performer and writer on "Saturday Night Live," by 477 votes out of more than 2.46 million cast.“ In Georgia, Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss was falling just short of the 50% needed to avoid a Dec. 2 runoff against Democrat Jim Martin.

In Oregon, Republican Sen. Gordon H. Smith held a slim lead over Democrat Jeff Merkley. The Oregonian newspaper, based on statistical analysis of the remaining 340,000 votes, projected Wednesday night that Merkley would be the eventual winner, but the Associated Press maintained that the race was too close to call.

Democrats were already contemplating changes.

Rep. Henry A. Waxman (D-Beverly Hills) is planning to challenge Rep. John D. Dingell (D-Mich.) for the chairmanship of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, a major battleground for climate change legislation. Dingell, an auto industry ally, and Waxman have feuded over tougher regulation of vehicle emissions.

"Some of the most important challenges we face -- energy, climate change and healthcare -- are under the jurisdiction of the commerce committee," Waxman said Wednesday.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) plans to meet with Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) this week to discuss Lieberman's future.

Lieberman, who returned to the Senate two years ago as an independent after losing the Democratic primary, caucuses with Democrats and has helped them hold a slim majority, but some in the party have called for him to be stripped of his chairmanship of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee because of his support -- including a speech at the Republican National Convention -- of GOP candidate John McCain.

House Democrats -- who now hold 235 of the chamber's 435 seats -- picked up at least 19 seats, including an Alabama district that overwhelmingly voted for President Bush four years ago.

"Last night was a great night," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) said Wednesday. "The American people spoke out loudly and clearly that they wanted a new direction for America. And they voted in large numbers for change."

At least four Democrats were ousted, including first-term Rep. Tim Mahoney of Florida, who was caught up in an adultery scandal.

In California, a hard-fought race for a district east of Sacramento hung in the balance. GOP state Sen. Tom McClintock led Democrat Charlie Brown by 451 votes after more than 310,000 ballots had been counted.

An estimated 40,000 votes remained to be tallied in the district, currently represented by Republican John T. Doolittle, who decided to retire after coming under scrutiny for his ties to imprisoned GOP lobbyist Jack Abramoff. The count could go on for weeks.

"We feel very, very good," said Brown's campaign manager, Todd Stenhouse. "I'll give it to straight: We're pretty confident that we will prevail."

In the Alaska contest, Stevens led Begich by about 3,300 votes, but as many as 60,000 ballots remained uncounted. The outcome may not be known for 15 days, the time that state elections officials have to tally the results.

The night before the election, Stevens went on television vowing to appeal his conviction on corruption charges stemming from his failure to report gifts and home-remodeling work from a powerful oil services company.

"Sometimes innocent men are found guilty," he said.

Stevens' campaign manager, Mike Tibbles, said Wednesday that if trends continued, it was "almost mathematically impossible" for his candidate to lose. But Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, refused to concede Wednesday, and said he was confident that late-counted ballots would move him ahead.

"I would just say to Sen. Stevens and his team: This race ain't over yet. We've got a long haul," he said.

Stevens' possible reelection has fueled speculation that if he resigns or is expelled, Palin would seek to succeed him. An election must be held to choose a successor within 60 to 90 days after a seat is vacated, but Alaska has conflicting laws over whether the governor can name a temporary replacement.

The possibility that Palin could run for Stevens' seat, should he resign or be ousted, has not been ruled out by anyone in Alaska, though she has not expressed interest.

Larry Persily, Alaska's former lobbyist in Washington, said Palin had enjoyed the national spotlight, and if there were an open Senate seat, "that's a tough opportunity to pass up."

Simon and Murphy are Times staff writers.

The main bone of contention across the internet is the likely composition of the 60,000+ missing votes. Though the Repubs seem confident, there is speculation in discussion threads on 538 that a large number of absentee ballots may be college students, and/or that many of the uncounted votes come from Democrat favoring areas such as Juneau. In my opinion, with at least 20% of the votes yet to be counted, a 1% margin doesn't mean much. There is too little known about the composition of the uncounted votes to surmise that they will be statistically similar to the already counted votes. Begich could win the remaining vote by as little as 5% and come out on top in the race.