Knife wrote:er.. you might have missed that last eight years, two presidential elections, four congressional elections.
Four congressional elections? They completely lost two of those, WTF are you
talking about?
Again, to repeat myself since sometimes people have a hard time reading, Karl Rove and G.W. Bush were handed the biggest political PR giveaway since Kennedy got shot in the head. Bush instantly shot from 52% approval to an unprecedented
90% approval rating. By 2004 he was just eking out a victory over Kerry (the most uncompelling candidate who could be found), and by 2006 the dream of a permanent GOP majority was
completely over, in spite of a Rove-tactics full court press.
It's equally important to note that they managed this debacle with
no effective opposition, neither from the mainstream media nor from the Democratic Party. They did it all through their own incompetence. And of course the last Presidential election, in which Obama's grassroots positivism curbstomped a Rove-style campaign, is demonstrative. The Rove trajectory is an illustration and definition of Lincoln's dictum; "You may fool all the people some of the time, you can even fool some of the people all of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all the time."
How many of the people can you fool all of the time? 25%, give or take.
How long can you fool all of the people? About five years.
I'm not just going by the five years they were successful. I'm taking their advantages, which they squandered in epic fashion, into account as well.
Sure, they are out, but after how long?
Hard to say, but speculatively? It could be a long damn time. Firstly, if Obama is a good president, and early signs indicate that he will be, and he goes two terms, then history will have a
24-year consecutive argument for Democratic Party governance (1992-2016). Secondly, America is becoming more demographically diverse, and the Democrats are decisively winning the support of these expanding minorities. Thirdly, the generation now coming of age has no respect for the GOP--polls show a
15 point advantage for Democrats in people under 30. Fourthly, if the Obama administration is successful in taking on the recession and enacting a sane health care system, the Republican Party as we know it will have to change or die.
Making sure that every American has health insurance, and the accompanying social and economic savings that public policy experts expect that to bring, is going to be a Democratic initiative and the people will know it as such. There are 46-odd million uninsured Americans, and let's say that the health care system comes online as planned, and they all get insurance, and they owe it to Barack Obama and the Democratic Party. Electorally, that's kind of a big deal.
These are all speculations based on snapshots, but try taking the opposite track and looking for advantages that the Republican Party can exploit to get back into power... that picture doesn't look so good.