Belgium is in crisis... again.

[Bounty]

Separation of powers? What separation of powers?

BRUSSELS (AFP) — The fate of Belgian Prime Minister Yves Leterme hung in the balance Thursday, after the kingdom's top court accused his government of pressuring judges to back the dismantling of Fortis bank.

As his cabinet met in emergency session, Belgian media suggested that either the 48-year-old Flemish Christian Democrat, his justice or his finance ministers could resign.

Earlier, in a letter to the speaker of parliament, Belgium's Supreme Court president Ghislain Londers said: "Everything was done so that the ruling of the ... Court of Appeal would not be given" on the Fortis breakup.

In a case brought by Fortis' minority shareholders, a Brussels appeal court ruled last Friday that they should have been consulted on the partial sale of the bank and insurance group to BNP Paribas and froze the deal.

The move left the company's fate in doubt.

Opposition parties had called earlier Thursday for a confidence vote after Leterme acknowledged "contacts" with justice officials, while denying seeking to influence them.

Leterme only came to power in March after many months of political crisis and the allegations are a new millstone for a man who has struggled to hold a government together.

The Belgian government is mired in a complex legal battle with minority shareholders of the banking and insurance group Fortis over the sale of its Belgian assets to French bank BNP Paribas.

The group was dismantled in October with the Dutch state taking over its Dutch banking and insurance assets and the Belgian government taking over its Belgian banking business.

In a bid to secure the long-term viability of Fortis and the Belgian banking system, the government then hastily orchestrated the sale of most of the group's Belgian assets to BNP Paribas.

Until the court froze the transaction, the deal was to have gone ahead this week.

BNP Paribas acknowledged on Thursday that the deal "cannot proceed as initially planned."

Long story short: the credit crunch dragged Fortis with it. With the bank close to collapse, the government was pressured to nationalise it; instead they dismantled it and tried to sell on parts of it to BNP Paribas. The shareholders revolted and had the sale blocked, which would have severely hurt PM Leterme's position; so he and his ministers pressured the court, via informal channels, to let the deal go through.

Which kinda goes against the very foundation of our political system.

This backfired spectacularly. His plan to quietly pressure the courts into letting the BNP Paribas deal go through has not only not worked - with the whole deal now on the brink of getting blown off by the buyer - but he's also pissed on the separation of powers to the point where even his own party has called for an official investigation, which has been unheard of in Belgian history.

Suffice to say his political career is over, Fortis is now completely fucked and in all likelihood I'll be voting for a new government come February. Again.

[Siege]

Man, Belgium just can't get a break, can it? You have my sympathies, for what it's worth- I wonder what Leterme was thinking, this scheme should've had 'bad plan' written all over it right from the start.

If you guys have to hold elections again, I sure hope it won't take as long to form a government as last time...

[Bounty]

If you guys have to hold elections again, I sure hope it won't take as long to form a government as last time...

You're an optimist, aren't you?

The Christian-Democrats are going to get wiped out in any early election. I wouldn't be surprised if they take the liberals and socialists with them, which would leave Dedecker's lolbertarian joke of a 'party' on the Flemish side as the big winner - yay anti-politics! - and the odds of them being able to form a government when there are Walloons involved are virtually nil. So no matter what happens south of the border, Belgium is going into a recession with no functioning government, no long-term planning on a federal level and no hope of pulling itself together.

At this point the only genuine decision-making is done at the Community level. Presidents Peeters, Demotte and Lambertz by now have more political clout than the federal government has had for the last two years, and I suspect people will turn to them for responses to the economic, social and environmental developments of the next few years - insofar as they have the means to address thos issues. Which brings up the possibility of a further atrophy of the federal level's jurisdiction, which in turn leaves the country hanging together by a thread.

I'm especially curious as to what the King's response to all this will be. He's virtually the only person at federal level or higher that's relatively untainted by the bickering and scandals of the last year, which says a lot about the state of the country really...

[Johonebesus]

Under these circumstances, is the monarch still utterly powerless to actually do anything besides be a pretty symbol for the people?

[Bounty]

Under these circumstances, is the monarch still utterly powerless to actually do anything besides be a pretty symbol for the people?

Once Leterme does the only honourable thing left to him and resigns, Albert will be in a position to informally - but coercively - form the new government. But short of picking a competent team and giving the right sort of... advice, his power is extremely limited.

[wautd]

I miss the Verhofstadt days...

[Bounty]

I miss the Verhofstadt days...

Word on the grapevine is that Leterme will resign tomorrow and Van Rompuy might take over. Which means we'll go for a cobbled-together interim government to a cobbled-together interim replacement for a cobbled-together interim government.

I believe this picture sums up Leterme's feelings right now:

[Mobius]

Le président de la Chambre Herman Van Rompuy a reçu du ministre de la Justice Jo Vandeurzen une lettre accompagnée d'un rapport du procureur général près la Cour d'appel de Bruxelles qui prouve que l'arrêt Fortis est entâché d'illégalité, a-t-on appris. Il apparaît que l'annulation de l'arrêt peut être obtenue via un pourvoi en cassation.
Bruxelles (belga) - Le président de la Chambre Herman Van Rompuy a reçu du ministre de la Justice Jo Vandeurzen une lettre accompagnée d'un rapport du procureur général près la Cour d'appel de Bruxelles qui prouve que l'arrêt Fortis est entâché d'illégalité, a-t-on appris.

Il apparaît que l'annulation de l'arrêt peut être obtenue via un pourvoi en cassation.

L'echo (in french)

does that mean that the government takes the ball again?
it's becomming a real vaudeville

[Bounty]

I have no idea. It might not even matter what the court says if PNB refuses to go forward with the deal.

(For the non-French-speakers: an appeals court has, apparently legitimately, overturned the ruling Leterme was trying to overturn illegitimately)

[Ekiqa]

it's becomming a real vaudeville

Vaudeville is right. It's pretty confusing following Belgian politics. How politically powerful are the Walloons? Bounty mentioned that

Dedecker's lolbertarian joke of a 'party' on the Flemish side as the big winner - yay anti-politics! - and the odds of them being able to form a government when there are Walloons involved are virtually nil.

[Bounty]

How politically powerful are the Walloons?

Well, they're half the country with 40% of the population, so... extremely? The problem is that there's a lot of anti-Walloon sentiment among the more right-wing Flemish parties, thanks in no small part to a few people turning minor disputes with the Walloons into Big Issues (such as who gets to appoint mayors for three podunk towns around the capital), so any chance of a functioning government with both these parties and Walloon ones is slim to none.

[Bounty]

English-language summary of the situation:

BRUSSELS, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The future of Belgian Prime Minister Yves Leterme hung in the balance on Friday ahead of a report from the Supreme Court over suspicions of political meddling in the judicial system.

Leterme faced mounting pressure to quit on Thursday over accusations that his office had sought to influence an appeal court ruling that last week froze the break-up of stricken financial group Fortis (FOR.BR: Quote, Profile, Research).

Ministers met for seven hours and emerged just before midnight to say no one would be resigning -- at least for the time being.

Leterme's future had looked bleak on Thursday afternoon when an incendiary letter from the head of the Supreme Court to the chairman of the lower house of parliament was made public.

"Everything was done that the ruling of the 18th chamber of the court of appeal could not be delivered as planned," read one passage of the letter, although it did not name Leterme.

Ministers said they would await a full report from the Supreme Court, expected to be available on Friday afternoon, before meeting again.

"Total chaos," read the headline in Le Soir. "Outlaw" said La Libre Belgique below a picture of a pensive Leterme. "A painful death walk" was the title on De Morgen.

The prime minister has denied influencing the appeal court, although acknowledged that one of his officials contacted the husband of one of the judges several times.

Leterme only came into power in March after nine months of deadlock due to a tussle over the extent that powers should be devolved to Belgium's regions -- a key demand for Dutch-speaking Flemish parties.

Only this July, he tendered his resignation after failing to break the deadlock, which reignited speculation the 178-year-old country could split. He stayed on after King Albert refused to let him quit.

Fortis was carved up by the Dutch, Belgian and Luxembourg governments with France's BNP Paribas buying the Belgian operations after an 11.2 billion euro ($16.1 billion) cash injection failed to calm investor concerns.

Angry shareholders launched legal action, and the victory at the appeal court has thrown the government's bailout plans into disarray in the midst of a financial and economic crisis.

[Vendetta]

So, how long before someone lists Belgium for sale on ebay again then?

[Bounty]

"Reliable sources" have just reported on the state TV channel that the government has fallen. The PM has offered a collective resignation. No confirmation yet, but it was only a matter of time before this happened.

Yay, elections. Again.

EDIT: 10+ independent sources confirmed that there is no more federal government. Early elections could happen as early as late-January, early-February; right when I'm in Eastern Europe. Cue the paperwork nightmare.

[CaptainChewbacca]

I'm beginning to think Belgium might not be a real country.

[Phantasee]

I'm beginning to think Belgium might not be a real country.

Hahahahahaha, you're beginning to think that? I was convinced of it the second time Germany didn't notice the speed bump on the way to Paris.

[Tiriol]

I'm especially curious as to what the King's response to all this will be. He's virtually the only person at federal level or higher that's relatively untainted by the bickering and scandals of the last year, which says a lot about the state of the country really...

A question: if the King decides to comment, what effect would it have, in public opinion or in political proceedings?

Times like this I appreciate a head of state who has not sullied himself with day-to-day political and bureaucratic proceedings and even some (or most) of the bigger ones. It means that the said head of state at least appears to be above this kind of mess. Of course, I don't know how many countries have strong enough head of state who could then affect things in any shape or form, just merely offer condemnation, opinion or praise (it must be hard to be a "mere" opinion leader). Elizabeth II at least has the power to disband the current Parliament (House of Commons only?) and to order a new election.

[Bounty]

Right now the king is "considering" the resignation, as it can't be finalised without his blessing. He's consulting with various political figures and trying to get as clear a picture as possible of the situation; rumour has it he might even reject Leterme's request to resign, again, and force him to clean up his mess; with no government, not only will the Fortis case be deadlocked, there won't even be a budget next year. Without an official budget, all government services default to a monthly allowance, which will be a fiscal nightmare. Keeping Leterme in his seat as a puppet will be painful for everyone involved, but at least there'll be a semblance of leadership.

His other option is to accept the resignation. The ball is then in parliament's court; they'll either call for new elections, in February or (more likely) in June to coincide with the European elections, or they might force the majority parties to assemble a new government and ride out their term to 2011. My best bet is that we'll have an emergency government - Verhofstadt IIIb? - followed by elections come June, with the CD&V sinking without a trace.

A question: if the King decides to comment, what effect would it have, in public opinion or in political proceedings?

He's got the current government by the balls, so to speak. If he openly condemns a minister of acting irresponsibly that man's career is basically over. The king still has a great deal of informal power, and while he can't directly influence politics except for special circumstances - limited to, essentially, picking the new government or letting the old one stand down - he is the one person people will turn to to get the country back on track. If he acts sensibly today, he'll accept the resignation, reinforce the point that there needs to be a "government of running affairs" to push the budget through and try to salvage Fortis, and then hopefully we'll elect the right parties for him to choose the new government from in June.

[wautd]

Yay, elections. Again.

That's part of the problem. Elections are too frequent (every two years) and there are too many parties. Result is a rope pulling contest in 10 opposite directions

[Bounty]

Yay, elections. Again.

That's part of the problem. Elections are too frequent (every two years) and there are too many parties. Result is a rope pulling contest in 10 opposite directions

Politics in Belgium would be a lot easier if everyone just gave up on the goddamn feud with the Walloons. Nobody cares any more, it's a stupid non-issue. They speak French, we don't. Yes? And? Does that warrant keeping our entire political system deadlocked for years? It's just such a retarded, petty, dumbshit argument - why can't people see it's only used as election fodder?

I'm actually rooting for Dehaene to come back and pull us out of this sorry mess. Sure, he's blunt and he's had his decade in the spotlight, but at least he's something none of the current crop of so-called "politicans" are: a statesman. He's one of the old guard, one of the few who can still vaguely realise that politics isn't about sweet-talking the electorate to win a few more votes, it's about keeping a country running.

Maybe that's why he'd be perfect: he's got nothing to lose. He's not in it for the money, he's not in it for the electoral credit, he's in it because it's a job he does well that the current batch of wannabe politicos can't seem to handle.

[Bounty]

Adios, Leterme. Go crawl into a hole and die plz.

The king of Belgium has accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Yves Leterme's government, the palace says.

King Albert II "accepted the resignation of the government and asked it to stay on in a caretaker capacity," a statement said.

The statement made no mention of who might replace Mr Leterme, but analysts say former PM Jean-Luc Dehaene is favourite for the caretaker role.

Mr Leterme offered to resign amid a row over the sale of troubled bank Fortis.

The king held a series of consultative meetings over the weekend to consider the impact of the government's resignation during the current financial crisis.

Mr Leterme only took office in March, nine months after a general election had resulted in political deadlock founded in tensions between Flemish and Walloon groups.

He tendered his resignation in June after he failed to push through plans to devolve more power to the regions, but the king rejected it.

Meanwhile, the corpse of Martens has been reanimated to informally try and set up a new government. Probably to pave the way for Dehaene III, most likely. It's frikkin' 1992 all over again...

[Mobius]

Not to necro but the general meeting is tomorrow and the whole country is batshit insane about it...

What is it about:

3 questions for the shareholder:

1/
Do you accept the sale of Fortis NL to the Netherlands?
2/
Do you accept the sale of Fortis Holding to the Belgian Federal government?

3/
Do you accept the deal made with BNP Paribas?


The quotation of Fortis shall be suspended until the result are known

The last days had more face off than a season of 24...

The last one is one of the candidate to the Board appointed by the no side is defending now the yes.

Gonna be pretty freaky at the office tommorrow...