BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

Post by Col. Crackpot »

aerius wrote:I didn't see the one last week, but since they said "well capitalized" last week and again today, yeah, they're in deep shit and it's pretty much endgame. BAC and Shittygroup shares down another 20% as I'm typing this, at this rate they'll be toast either today or next Friday.

unless they are willing to disclose their tier 1 capital ratio and their leveraged capital ratio to the penny i call bullshit. A well capitalized bank says: " We have a tier 1 capital ratio if 14%". A bank that is fucked says "We are well capitalized!"
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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

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http://www.cnbc.com/id/29395960/for/cnbc/

CNBC wrote:LONDON - The Royal Bank of Scotland is expected to post the largest ever loss by a British corporation and announce that it will offload toxic assets into a government insurance program when it reports its full-year earnings on Thursday.

Britain's second-largest bank, which is majority-owned by the government after it accepted bailout packages worth more than 20 billion pounds ($29 billion), has warned that its full-year loss for 2008 could reach 28 billion pounds.

That figure is likely to include an underlying loss of 8 billion pounds, after the bank lost billions on the value of assets.

Analysts also expect RBS to disclose the terms of its participation in a government insurance program that is aimed at stimulating lending and jumpstarting the economy.

Under plans outlined by Treasury chief Alistair Darling last month, the government will charge a fee to guarantee around 90 percent of a bank's potential losses on assets such as mortgage-backed securities and consumer loans.

The plan should increase the capital strength of banks by reducing the risky assets they hold.

Analysts have speculated that RBS will put around 200 billion pounds of its toxic assets into the program.

As RBS has already flagged expected large losses to the market, the focus is on an anticipated restructure announcement by the bank.

Reports suggest that RBS will hive off large parts of its international operations to split its assets between core "good" ones to be held long-term and "bad" ones to be sold off in the coming years.

Collins Stewart analyst Alex Potter says shareholders would benefit from "transparency" on the creation of a division holding RBS's unwanted assets, making it easier for investors to value the bank

RBS' downfall in the wake of the global credit squeeze has been swift.

As recently as July 2008, The Banker rated it as one of the world's top banks based on its tier 1 capital.

Since then, RBS has been forced to take part in a government bailout that will give the taxpayer a 68 percent stake once formalities have been completed. Analysts have said the jury is still out on whether the bank remains a candidate for full nationalization.

The bank's chairman Tom McKillop and chief executive Fred Goodwin have resigned and issued a public apology for their roles in the once strong bank's financial downfall. But

McKillop earlier this month acknowledged that RBS' decision by buy Dutch bank ABN Amro in December 2007, while its investment banking business was heavily exposed to the complex financial instruments hit by the crisis, was a "bad mistake."

In an editorial piece in Wednesday's Financial Times, Darling said that Britain's banks must clean up their balance sheets and start rebuilding their operations.

"The task for banks is to clean up their balance sheets and rebuild for the future," Darling wrote.

"The challenge, for the government and for the banks, is to do this against a background of a sharply deteriorating global economy."

The Treasury is also negotiating terms of the program with Lloyds Banking Group, which reports on earnings on Friday. Barclays also is reportedly interested in the program.

The Financial Times reported that negotiations involving RBS and Lloyds have focused on the fee for insurance, which could be up to 6 percent, and how much of a loss the banks would have to absorb before claiming against insurance.
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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

Post by Count Chocula »

Hmmm. BofA holds my mortgage, and I also have a mortgage rate credit card with a balance. They also offered me a safe deposit box, which I've - oops! - forgotten to use.

I presume they sold my interest payment commitments and principal payment commitments in separate tranches, perhaps 48 hours after the ink dried on my signature. Yet, I still pay my mortgage, tax and insurance set-asides to them. If they go under, who do I pay? I haven't been a member of a failed bank...would I most likely keep paying BofA? I'm a bit concerned that if they go tits-up at the same time I make my payment it'll get, ummm, misplaced.
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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

Post by aerius »

I'd say that if BAC goes tits up, you'd have more important things to worry about than paying your mortgage. If they go under it'll be total carnage on the markets since all the credit default swaps get triggered, plus all the structured finance products, special investment vehicles, loans, swaps, and other crap that BAC is a party or counterparty to gets roached. I'd say it's even odds that they'll never find your mortgage papers after the nuclear fallout of a BAC kaboom, cause if they go under they'll take out a massive chunk of the US financial market. There's also a good chance that craploads of creditcards & debit cards will stop working, even if they're not with BAC or any of the other banks taken out in the kaboom. You win some, you lose some.
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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

Post by Count Chocula »

Hmmm again. "Lost" mortgage papers = good (if I'm feeling larcenous). Investments solely in GLD, GFI, PAAS and CEF while currency and credit burn: doubleplusgood. Working for a solvent, privately-owned company with no outstanding credit: priceless.
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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

Post by aerius »

Please, just put Shittygroup out of its misery already.

Forbes link
Dilution Fears Rattle Citi
Jeremy Bogaisky, Vidya Ram and Miriam Marcus, 02.27.09, 04:40 PM EST
Investors send the bank's stock down 39.0% following news of Uncle Sam's involvement.
Citigroup Inc.


Citigroup shares dove on Friday after it confirmed that taxpayers would take on a bigger share of the bank as the U.S. government sought to bolster its capital. According to Citigroup, up to $25.0 billion of government-held preferred shares in the company will now be converted into common equity.

The deal would see the government's voting stake in Citigroup (nyse: C - news - people ) rise to as much as 36.0%, from the current level of 7.0%. This will be accompanied by an infusion of new members on the bank's board, giving it a majority of independent directors, the bank's chairman Richard Parsons said Friday.

Shares of Citigroup plunged 39.0%, or 96 cents, to close at $1.50, on Friday, suggesting that investors feared further dilution of their holdings.

Following the announcement, an analyst from Goldman Sachs said to avoid Citi shares, and that the bank may need to seek further funding, according to TradeTheNews.com. Moody's lowered its long-term ratings on Citigroup to Ca, or junk status, from Baa3; senior debt rating was cut to A3, from A2-; and senior subordinated debt was cut to Baa1, from A3.

Citigroup will offer to exchange up to $27.5 billion of preferred stock held by the likes of the Government of Singapore Investment, at a conversion price of $3.25 per share, 32.0% higher than Thursday's closing price. The U.S. Treasury will match those private conversions dollar-for-dollar up to $25.0 billion. The Treasury currently holds about $45.0 billion worth of preferred stock purchased through two previous capital injections.

According to Jane Coffey, fund manager at Royal London Asset Management, the conversion to common equity would remove a major fixed-cost burden for Citigroup, similar to a move that had been made by the British government for Royal Bank of Scotland (nyse: RBS - news - people )last month. "When they have common equity then the dividend only gets paid when the company can actually start affording it, but with preference shares they are paying a high fixed rate," she told Forbes. "This gives the company more flexibility."

Citigroup would receive no new government funds, but the deal will give it more cash to work with, given that it will no longer have to pay the hefty dividends on the preferred shares that are being converted.

The conversion of preferred shares to common will also raise the bank's Tier 1 capital ratio (preferred shares count as debt), leaving it better able to withstand losses.

It is an open question, though, whether it will be enough to allow Citigroup to withstand the heavy losses that are expected over the next few quarters from souring consumer loans.

The third major Treasury intervention to aid Citigroup since mid-October follows more than a week of negotiations with the company, once the world's largest financial services group.

The move also comes days after the Treasury and assorted federal regulators began stress testing the 15 biggest U.S. banks, including Citi. (See "Stressing Out the Banks.") The tests, which will take several weeks, could draw a bright line between winners and losers in the banking sector. The result of this stress testing will be a new round of temporary capital injections in the banks that are determined to need it, using a template that is very similar to the Citi deal.

The Citigroup equity raising will severely dilute the value of existing shareholdings, hurting such big investors as Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, however, the hope is that it will bolster confidence in the ability of the company to survive and support its stock price, which fell below $2 last Friday on fears that the bank would be nationalized.

Citi's announcement of the deal left investors with more questions than answers. "Though we're dealing with Citigroup today, there's still lots of questions about Bank of America and other banks," said Rich Hughes, co-president of Portfolio Management Consultants. "We're waiting for the results of the stress test and it's weighing on investors' minds."

"Until we can come up with the actual assessment and get it out on the table, I think we're going to live in this unpredictable, unstable period," Hughes added.

Charlotte, N.C.-based Bank of America (nyse: BAC - news - people ) has also been under considerable pressure lately as investors worry it could be the next in line to receive a third bailout from the government. Shares lost $1.37, or 25.8%, to close at $3.95, on Friday.

Shares of Wells Fargo (nyse: WFC - news - people ) dropped $2.30, or 16.0%, to close at $12.10, on Friday. The San Francisco-based bank said that it has suspended its bonus policy for its chief executive and other top executives; they will also not receive bonuses for 2008.

Even JPMorgan Chase (nyse: JPM - news - people ), which is considered one of the strongest banks compared with its peers, lost 20 cents, or 0.9%, to $22.85, on Friday. The New York City-based bank has yet to post a quarterly loss during the financial meltdown that began in 2007 with the subprime mortgage crisis, and CEO Jamie Dimon expects the bank to remain profitable through 2009, including the first quarter.

While the deal, as outlined, falls short of giving the government a majority stake in Citigroup, there is little question that the bank's executives will more than ever look to Washington for direction on strategy.

For taxpayers, the transaction means the government is giving up the safety of a steady dividend payout on its preferred stake, as well as precedence over common shareholders in the event of liquidation. To compensate, the conversion reportedly will come at the most-favored price, meaning the government will get the best price of the private shares that are converted.
Citigroup is dead. It has no prospects for positive cashflow and no way of stopping its losses. Unfortunately it's "too big to fail" so I see the government pouring billions into it every month to keep it in a zombie-like state, it's like Weekend at Bernie's, except it ain't funny.
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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

Post by Chardok »

I don't buy too big to fail anymore. You've got JPMorgan Chase out there, and people are flocking to JPM like nothing I've ever seen. (Including me) perception is everythig and JPM does everything Citi does - only better.
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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

Post by aerius »

Chardok wrote:I don't buy too big to fail anymore.
I go back & forth on this, I don't think Citigroup is too big to fail and going by what the market did to its share price today lots of people hold the same opinion. On the other hand I believe the government still thinks they are since they keep handing them bailouts & "loans" which will never be repaid. Maybe they'll rethink things after today, or a few more days of Shittygroup losing 30-40% of its value every day.
You've got JPMorgan Chase out there, and people are flocking to JPM like nothing I've ever seen. (Including me) perception is everythig and JPM does everything Citi does - only better.
Oh they do things better alright, like loading up huge* on derivatives, JPM-C holds about as much of them as everyone else put together. My calculator has trouble handling numbers that big.

*chart's from the Comptroller of the Currency's quarterly derivatives reports.
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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

Post by Count Chocula »

The Citi action was really ugly today, and the Fed has pledged another $25 billion on top of the stock dilution from the preferred to common stock swap. Bernanke just cost a lot of innocent Citi shareholders 1/2 of their remaining value, with no floor under the stock price.

If the Fed ends up owning 100% of Citi, I have to wonder...what's 100% of nothing worth?

EDIT: I expect a stampede by non-mouth-breathing Citi shareholders on Monday, and a share price under $1.00 by Wednesday. Then, we might see a bounce created by bottom-feeders. Should be an interesting week.
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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

Post by aerius »

In case BAC is feeling left out

Bloomberg link
Bank of America Loans Valued at $44 Billion Less Than Books Say
By David Mildenberg

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp.’s loans are valued at $44.6 billion less than what its balance sheet says, according to the bank’s annual report released today.

Bank of America said that its loans have an estimated fair value of $841.6 billion, while the carrying amount of the loans is $886.2 billion.

“It’s an academic exercise that reflects the liquidity discount that is severe these days,” said bank spokesman Scott Silvestri. “These are loans that are not held for sale and we intend to hold them to maturity.”

Loan values have slumped as more borrowers have missed payments on their credit card, home and other types of loans and investor demand for mortgage-based securities has dried up.

Bank of America reported total shareholders’ equity of $177.1 billion as of Dec. 31, according to the regulatory filing issued after the close of trading today.

“That’s the heart of why these companies are trading where they are,” Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co. analyst Scott Valentin said in an interview. “Technically, if you mark-to- market the entire balance sheet, most of these banks are insolvent.”

The Financial Accounting Standards Board, the private group that oversees accounting rules, passed a rule in 1991 to require that companies disclose at least once a year the “fair value” of all their financial instruments, including those they carry on their balance sheets at historical cost.

Bank of America reported total shareholders’ equity of $177.1 billion as of Dec. 31, according to the regulatory filing issued after the close of trading today.

The Charlotte, North Carolina lender’s shares declined 26 percent after the U.S. government’s third attempt to rescue Citigroup Inc. raised concerns that other banks may also need help. Bank of America lost $1.37 to $3.95 at 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

-- Editor: William Ahearn, Dan Reichl
BAC cheating on their balance sheets? Who would've guessed? If their Level 2 & 3 "assets" got marked to market they'd be underwater by at least $500 billion assuming a ~50% loss on the asset values, and that's probably too generous since everything they got from the Countrywide Financial buyout is effectively worth zero.
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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

Post by Crayz9000 »

aerius wrote:
You've got JPMorgan Chase out there, and people are flocking to JPM like nothing I've ever seen. (Including me) perception is everythig and JPM does everything Citi does - only better.
Oh they do things better alright, like loading up huge* on derivatives, JPM-C holds about as much of them as everyone else put together. My calculator has trouble handling numbers that big.

*chart's from the Comptroller of the Currency's quarterly derivatives reports.
I'm beginning to wondering if my wife and I should transfer all our remaining WaMu/JPMC accounts over to Union Bank of California. I noticed that they're conspicuously one of the only banks whose derivatives portfolio is only worth about half of their assets, and includes no credit derivatives.
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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

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Count Chocula wrote:EDIT: I expect a stampede by non-mouth-breathing Citi shareholders on Monday, and a share price under $1.00 by Wednesday. Then, we might see a bounce created by bottom-feeders. Should be an interesting week.
Getting there, getting there, Shittybank's currently sitting at $1.20 after losing 30 cents today. Massive volume too, over a billion shares traded today. I'm hoping they're the star attraction of FDIC Friday, the damn zombie bank needs killing.
Crayz9000 wrote:I'm beginning to wondering if my wife and I should transfer all our remaining WaMu/JPMC accounts over to Union Bank of California. I noticed that they're conspicuously one of the only banks whose derivatives portfolio is only worth about half of their assets, and includes no credit derivatives.
They're not on the unofficial troubled banks list so they should be fine, but on the other hand the list is far from comprehensive. See if you can get your hands on the quarterly or yearly reports of Union Bank and run the calculations shown on the list, then see how the bank measures up. If it's high on the list, beware.
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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

Post by aerius »

Reuters
S&P cuts Bank of America's rating one notch to "A"
Tue Mar 3, 2009 3:38pm EST


NEW YORK, March 3 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's on Tuesday cut its rating on Bank of America by one notch, citing worsening pressure on earnings as the economy weakens.

"We downgraded BofA one notch because we believe that the economic weakness will persist and that in turn, earnings pressures will be more intense than we anticipated as recently as Dec. 19, 2008, the date of our last downgrade of BofA," S&P analyst John Bartko said in a statement.

S&P also cut Bank of America's hybrid rating to "BB-minus," three steps below junk, from "BBB," and affirmed its "A-1" short-term ratings if the bank.

"We lowered the hybrid capital rating by four notches because of our view that the risk that BofA could defer dividend payments has increased," the rating agency said, noting the move reflects heightened concern that the bank's management could decide to exercise its option not to pay dividends.

S&P affirmed its top "AAA" rating on the FDIC-guaranteed debt of the bank and its subsidiaries.

The outlook on Bank of America and its bank subsidiaries remains "negative," which suggests the possibility of more cuts to come. (Reporting by Walden Siew; Editing by Jan Paschal)
Better late than never I suppose, but how about a D, for "default"?
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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

Post by Count Chocula »

Count Chocula wrote: EDIT: I expect a stampede by non-mouth-breathing Citi shareholders on Monday, and a share price under $1.00 by Wednesday. Then, we might see a bounce created by bottom-feeders. Should be an interesting week.

Getting there, getting there, Shittybank's currently sitting at $1.20 after losing 30 cents today. Massive volume too, over a billion shares traded today. I'm hoping they're the star attraction of FDIC Friday, the damn zombie bank needs killing.
Well I was off by a day, but my tongue-in-cheek C target is getting mighty close to predicted! As of 10:24AM, C is at $1.03 and continuing down. BAC's down almost 5%, continuing a 31% slide over the last five trading days! Ouch.
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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

Post by J »

Citigroup at 98 cents as I type this, I could buy lotto tickets for less. Hopefully tomorrow is the day they're put out of their misery, we don't need any more taxpayer dollars poured into that bottomless hole.
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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

Post by Count Chocula »

Just for shits and grins, I plugged today's DOW number into Excel and ran a 10-day forecast, based on 10 3% down trading days.

...

I wound up with a DOW at 5,084 by March 18, or a 24% decline from today! Jesus Christ on a unicycle, I hope my 3% down days waterfall forecast is wrong. But, who has money to invest in this market, especially when valuations are so unreliable or untrusted? The advance/decline ratio on NYSE is running 10%/88%, and a 6,000 bottom is looking more optimistic than realistic.

It looks like it's time to make an early IRA withdrawal and take a tax hit, while there's still something to withdraw. This could be one ugly spring/summer for major banks, and I'm not convinced BofA will make it through 2009. C's a goner; the only question is how much life support will they get before the plug is pulled.
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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

Post by Edi »

The problem with the US financial market seems to be the same as the situation in Finland in the early 1990s, only worse. Everything is "too big to fail" and money will be poured down the black hole incessantly and they will still go tits up. They're making the same mistakes, but bigger. We're still recovering from that bullshit somewhat, and we had the tech boom help quite a bit on that. The overall US prospects look worse due to all the other factors and a far more irresponsible behavior on the part of the populace as a whole, so we'll see where it ends up. I fear it will not end very well.

When you look at how the depression in Scandinavia in the early 1990s was solved, Sweden did things right and got off pretty lightly, Finland fucked it up and the recovery was slower as a result.
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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

Post by Count Chocula »

Damn I was editing my post and didn't finish before the window closed.

I checked the European indices and holy shit on a stick with sprinkles, Europe's exchanges are getting kicked in the nuts!
  • Name Last Trade Change
    ATX 1,446.07 11:35AM ET 56.91 (3.79%)
    BEL-20 1,552.18 12:08PM ET 32.01 (2.02%)
    CAC 40 2,569.6299 12:03PM ET 106.05 (3.96%)
    DAX 2,695.49 11:45AM ET 195.45 (5.02%)
    AEX General 200.58 12:08PM ET 11.00 (5.20%)
    OSE All Share 243.98 11:29AM ET 10.41 (4.09%)
    MIBTel 11,172.0000 11:48AM ET 636.0000 (5.39%)
    Madrid General 739.72 11:39AM ET 34.55 (4.46%)
    Stockholm General 187.69 11:41AM ET 6.60 (3.40%)
    Swiss Market 4,390.18 11:30AM ET 73.49 (1.65%)
    FTSE 100 3,529.86 11:35AM ET 116.01 (3.18%)
I thought the US was in bad shape. What's happening in Europe?
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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

Post by J »

Count Chocula wrote:I thought the US was in bad shape. What's happening in Europe?
Several things. Germany said "hell no!" to bailing out troubled East European countries with their money. Unfortunately a lot of European financials are heavily tied in and/or invested in said countries, so they're now imploding. There were also some ugly economic reports from the EU in the last little while which isn't helping either.

But the big one I think was the tape bomb dropped by the London Telegraph either yesterday or the day before, which has since undergone a stealth update to remove the offending information. The article detailed the troubles of the EU financial system and concluded that £16 trillion, yes, that's 16 trillion pounds, would be required to bailout or otherwise cover the bad debts in the EU's banks.
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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

Post by Col. Crackpot »

J wrote:
Count Chocula wrote: Several things. Germany said "hell no!" to bailing out troubled East European countries with their money. Unfortunately a lot of European financials are heavily tied in and/or invested in said countries, so they're now imploding. There were also some ugly economic reports from the EU in the last little while which isn't helping either.

But the big one I think was the tape bomb dropped by the London Telegraph either yesterday or the day before, which has since undergone a stealth update to remove the offending information. The article detailed the troubles of the EU financial system and concluded that £16 trillion, yes, that's 16 trillion pounds, would be required to bailout or otherwise cover the bad debts in the EU's banks.
You think it's scary when banks implode... watch what happens when EU States implode. Ireland is a dead man walking.
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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

Post by Xenophobe3691 »

Col. Crackpot wrote: You think it's scary when banks implode... watch what happens when EU States implode. Ireland is a dead man walking.
What makes you say that?
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Re: BAC, C nationalization seen as inevitable

Post by J »

(US) Senate Banking Committee Chairman Dodd is moving to allow the FDIC to temporarily borrow as much as $500B from the Treasury Dept - WSJ
This one just came over my newswire feed. Looks like they're getting ready to let one of the big boys fail, Citigroup being of course the odds on favourite.
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