Starglider wrote:That is a gross misrepresentation of decision theory and I'm pretty sure you know it. There are an indefinite number of potential disasters that one could prepare for, yet it is impossible to be prepared for them all. Life is inherently risky, and the question is which risk mitigation measures are worth the time and monetary cost and which aren't. Acquiring a handgun and learning how to use it is a significant investment of both, and it is by no means a reliable solution; occasionally it may even increase risk, due to criminals being motivated to shoot first.
US studies quoted above show otherwise. Once again, you're making the standard mistake.
Perps aren't interested in a specific target, they are interested in an easy target. If they think somebody is armed, they pick somebody else. There is no easy money in a gunfight.
And the decision theory is quite simple. Get it wrong, you're dead. In a store that has a demonstrated prediliction for being robbed, being a victim isn't a question of if its when. And you'll feel terribly silly telling the perp "you can't shoot me, this only happens in three percent of cases."
Of course, the right choice for maximising personal benefit isn't necessarily the same as the right choice for a society. Personally, if I had a job like that in an area like that, I would consider the handgun+training a worthwhile investment. My general view of (hand)gun control in the US is that it does more harm good, because it's a society completely flooded with cheap, concealable weapons (the obvious 'it only disarms the law-abiding citizens' argument). That does not mean I want to legalise handguns in the UK.
It is a worthwhile investment, very much so. All the more so since funerals are so expensive. And embarrassing for the funeralee
No, it is not. I could equally argue that since the modus operandi of night robberies is working very effectively, the thieves will try it on other stores (criminals tend to be creatures of habit even moreso than the norm). Of course without statistics both of us are speculating wildly on this point.
I disagree there. I would suggest that once an area becomes crime-riddled, the nature of all offenses goes up. However, there are only a certain number of stores and with an icreasing number of criminals, the sheep have to be sheared more often. Evidence from, for example American Police Beat (the national US police newspaper to which I subscribe) is that once crime sets into an area, it quickly becomes a 24 hour occurrance. Liquor stores start being robbed close to closing times and the crimes progress earlier and earlier from that point with each group of criminals trying to get in first. Eventually, the store either closes or the owner gets killed. By the way, we had a liquor store robbery ot far from where I live a few years back. Woman who owned it put up a "gun-free zone" sign in her window. Within a week she was robbed, taken into the back of the store and beaten to death. Perps were never caught. Another by the way, there was a deadly home invasion not far from here two years back. Husband was beaten and left for dead, his wife and daughters were raped, tied to their beds, soaked in gasoline and burned alive. They were picked out and followed home because they had gun-ban stickers in their car. (CT State Police Report).
Oh, and a PS. I avoid stores that have "no guns" signs in the windows and preferentially go to those that are gun-friendly.