50% of Californians now support gay marriage, poll finds
Less than two years after Californians approved a ban on gay marriage, a new poll found that more residents support same-sex union than oppose it.
According to the Public Policy Institute of California poll, 50% of respondents support gay marriage and 45% oppose it. The PPIC said it marks the highest level of support for gay marriage their polls have recorded in California.
Some gay rights activists had planned to ask voters to repeal the ban on gay marriage, Proposition 8, this year. But several key groups decided to push back that effort until at least 2011.
A Los Angeles Times/USC poll released in November found a small majority of California voters supports the right of gay couples to marry, but a much larger portion of voters opposes efforts to place the issue on the ballot in 2010.
The PPIC polled 2,002 California adults by phone from March 9-16. It had a margin of error of 2%
--Shelby Grad
This is the first time they have found majority support for marriage equality in California. The PPIC has been polling on this issue since 2000 when the first marriage ban was enacted (Prop 22). Public opinion on marriage equality in California has increased since then but it has not been a linear change. It looks more like this:
According to the PPIC poll, we have just experienced the biggest increase in support for marriage equality since 2004 (it remained stagnant over the past 6 years). I'm cautiously optimistic as to what this means though I'm much more curious as to what caused the dramatic jump just over the past year. The poll can be found here.
1) Why the sudden shift? Any thoughts/hypotheses/speculations? Were the polling questions changed? Did a bunch of old people kick the bucket last year?
2) If there is a change and it isn't an artifact of polling or whatever, is it translatable to electoral/political gains?
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It depends on how well the pro marriage group can mobilize their people as opposed to the reactionaries. My guess is that the conservatives have been making themselves more obnoxious since the last election, which tends to annoy more moderate people.
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The only reason why the gay marriage ban passed in 2008 in Cali was because Obama pushed a huge turnout among minorities, specifically blacks and hispanics. Those two groups aren't usually big participants in voting, and while they were rather fired up for Obama, they are still pretty socially conservative.
It has nothing to do with any sort of anti-conservative backlash.
I'm guessing its more likely that all of California was surprised that the ban remained, and many on-the-fence people started thinking 'Well, I'm more open-minded than that.' and are now openly supporting gay marriage.
Also, before it gets crazy and someone accuses me of being a fundie and/or hating gays, I actually am against any sort of marriage ban and voted my conscience last election.
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Keep in mind that there's a possibility of the poll being an outlier. The PPIC has consistently polled California public opinion on this in the mid forties percentage range for the past six years. This dramatic increase is unusual to say the least. It's difficult to corroborate these findings without additional polling from other firms or from the PPIC (which will only happen next year).
