Herman Cain Leads in Polls... WTF?

[Crossroads Inc.]

From NPR of all places...

Cain appears to be the latest Tea Party sensation.

A new poll from Public Policy Polling has the one-time Godfather's Pizza CEO leading Mitt Romney by eight percentage points, 30 percent to 22 percent.

Those are the exact same percentages the very same polling outfit reported yesterday for Cain and Romney in Iowa where the first formal GOP presidential preference caucuses will occur in early January.


PPP's national poll had Newt Gingrich, the former U.S. House speaker, at 15 percent and Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 14 percent. Tom Jensen at PPP writes that Cain's gain is Tea Party-fueled:

Strong Tea Party support has Cain in the driver's seat nationally, just as he has been on our last four individual state polls. With non-Tea Party Republicans Romney actually leads Cain 29-27. But with the Tea Party crowd Cain is getting 39% with Gingrich at 16%, Perry at 14%, and Romney in 4th place at 13%. Romney doesn't need to win the Tea Partiers to be the Republican nominee. But he does need to finish better than 4th with them.

Before Cainiacs get too excited, this is still just one poll. And recall that both Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Rep. Michele Bachmann rode the Tea Party wave for a while before it beached them. (Bachmann is now at five percent, the same as Rep. Ron Paul in the national poll.)

Also, the phone calls for the poll were conducted before Tuesday night's debate.

One more thing, Cain's numbers seem to be as much about dissatisfaction with the field, especially frontrunner Romney, as anything else.

Another excerpt from Jensen's post:

There are indications within the poll that Cain's stay at the top could be short lived. Only 30% of his supporters are solidly committed to him with 70% saying they might still go on to support someone else.

Still, it's a striking and historic result even if it's transitory. It is the first time an African American who is a declared candidate for the Republican presidential nomination tops a national poll from a reputable public opinion organization

So my question, is this simply a case of the Tea Party bailing and jumping ship with Perry, flocking to Cain? Is it a blip? Or is this guy suddenly a real contender?

[Bakustra]

It's because he's picked up the "Anyone but Romney vote" that was keeping Perry going strong. He'll lose a lot of this lead once he starts making gaffes that drive regular Republicans away and once the Tea Party discovers something he's done that will make him a RINO. The Tea Party will probably end up splitting between Paul, Perry, Cain, and Bachmann in the end- Romney and Gingrich are unlikely to pick up significant segments of their vote, thanks to their established records.

[Mr Bean]

It's because he's picked up the "Anyone but Romney vote" that was keeping Perry going strong. He'll lose a lot of this lead once he starts making gaffes that drive regular Republicans away and once the Tea Party discovers something he's done that will make him a RINO. The Tea Party will probably end up splitting between Paul, Perry, Cain, and Bachmann in the end- Romney and Gingrich are unlikely to pick up significant segments of their vote, thanks to their established records.

This is where I disagree with you as Cain has very little history and most of it acting as a spokesperson for other companies (He was a lobbyist after being a CEO for Restaurants and later helped out Tobacco companies on the side as part of his lobbyist job) since then he's been on think tanks and boards of Koch brothers funded corporations. Believe me he won't have any RINO history.

Besides he's more than happy to go on radio shows saying negative things about affirmative action and saying that racism really does not impact people anymore. He's has been built into something that will appeal to Tea Party types and this is not the only poll to show him ahead. Nate Silver of 538 takes him seriously which is enough to say yes take him seriously. Not to win the nomination but right now he might win Iowa and depending when and now Newt, Santorum, Bachmann drop out he might do very well.

[Spoonist]

So the best way to become the candidate is to arrive as late as possible, just so the voting public won't be fed up with you?

[Stravo]

My source for understanding the Republican mindset aside from Fox News is my dad. He parrots the talking points as soon as they are out there in the ether. Oddly enough he supported Cain almost from the beginning saying he liked the guy better than anyone else in the field. I think like many Republicans he has frequently espoused his dissatisfaction with the current field of candidates but the most telling thing for me was a recent statement that Cain was more like a "real" Republican than Romney.

So I guess there is now some sort of litmus test in place to see how "Real" of a Republican you are. I didn't want to ask him what those credentials were because it would just make my head hurt.

In the end this is not a surprise, quite a few people are not satisfied with Romney and these polls show that frustration. I think once people start really looking at Cain and asking him tough questions that support will evaporate. Look at his latest statements on foreign policy for a clue on how he'll handle the tougher scrutiny.

[Bakustra]

It's because he's picked up the "Anyone but Romney vote" that was keeping Perry going strong. He'll lose a lot of this lead once he starts making gaffes that drive regular Republicans away and once the Tea Party discovers something he's done that will make him a RINO. The Tea Party will probably end up splitting between Paul, Perry, Cain, and Bachmann in the end- Romney and Gingrich are unlikely to pick up significant segments of their vote, thanks to their established records.

This is where I disagree with you as Cain has very little history and most of it acting as a spokesperson for other companies (He was a lobbyist after being a CEO for Restaurants and later helped out Tobacco companies on the side as part of his lobbyist job) since then he's been on think tanks and boards of Koch brothers funded corporations. Believe me he won't have any RINO history.

Besides he's more than happy to go on radio shows saying negative things about affirmative action and saying that racism really does not impact people anymore. He's has been built into something that will appeal to Tea Party types and this is not the only poll to show him ahead. Nate Silver of 538 takes him seriously which is enough to say yes take him seriously. Not to win the nomination but right now he might win Iowa and depending when and now Newt, Santorum, Bachmann drop out he might do very well.

I'm pretty sure he's going to do something dumb that hurts him with the Tea Party. Yeah, he's advocating flat taxes now, but eventually he'll get ambushed and, bearing in mind that even with the help of scriptwriters and advisors he still came up with a SimCity tax plan and quoted a Pokemon movie, he'll say something dumb about healthcare or immigration and that will hurt him. Will he pick up the Tea Party vote? I think that depends, as you said, on when Bachmann drops out and if Paul drops out. But even then he'd still be hurting himself with other Republicans over that period of time. I think that, while he wouldn't be as contemptible as Bachmann in the general election, he still would have a disadvantage there.

[Alferd Packer]

Romney may not be popular among segments of the Republican base, but everyone else who has stepped up to the plate has struck out. Cain may have the appearance doing well now, but he's going to get demolished in the early primaries/caucuses. And since those states have pushed their primaries up so early next year, there's really no time left for a new candidate to join the race.

[D.Turtle]

Frankly people will have to wait a couple of weeks before anything can be said about the viability of Cain.

I mean, so far every candidate - that wasn't Romney - that has had a surge to not-Romney front runner status saw it recede and fade away just as quickly. It happened with Gingrich, Bachmann, and Perry. Now it is Cain's turn to try (and fail).

[Knife]

True, though looking back at a field of failed wannabe candidates the Right Wing loved then hated, it's fair to expect similar of Cain. I will be truly surprised if he lasts.

[Mr Bean]

True, though looking back at a field of failed wannabe candidates the Right Wing loved then hated, it's fair to expect similar of Cain. I will be truly surprised if he lasts.

I'd not be because he's the only one left, remember each failure before is when someone new gets into the field and becomes temporary popular. Trump, Pawlenty(Kinda), Bachmann, Perry and now Cain, the difference Cain has is he's surged before fell back a bit but was always at around 8%-9% while Bachmman, Perry and Trump cratered in support and never recovered. Cain has surged and recovered.

And besides Republicans recover much better from gaffs than Democrats do because Republican gaffs are mentioned on CNN, BBC and maybe a side mention on Fox, the only place they will get covered on is on MSNBC and even then only in the evening. While a Democratic gaff is a week long news cycle on Fox which will be echoed on CNN and morning MSNBC.

[General Mung Beans]

Cain may already be dead http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBarE--G ... embedded#!

[Col. Crackpot]

No doubt he's getting a bump from his biblical inspired tax plan. But i'll paraphrase Bill Maher from the other night do you really think the Republicans are going to allow an election where there isn't a white guy? If i was a betting man i'd say old fashioned racism should guarantee Mitt 'Milk Toast' Romney nomination.

[General Mung Beans]

No doubt he's getting a bump from his biblical inspired tax plan. But i'll paraphrase Bill Maher from the other night do you really think the Republicans are going to allow an election where there isn't a white guy? If i was a betting man i'd say old fashioned racism should guarantee Mitt 'Milk Toast' Romney nomination.

Yeah that's why Alan West, Marco Rubio, Nikki Haley, Bobby Jindal, and Tim Scott were elected. For all their imperfections, the Republican Party are by and large not racist assholes.

[Col. Crackpot]

No doubt he's getting a bump from his biblical inspired tax plan. But i'll paraphrase Bill Maher from the other night do you really think the Republicans are going to allow an election where there isn't a white guy? If i was a betting man i'd say old fashioned racism should guarantee Mitt 'Milk Toast' Romney nomination.

Yeah that's why Alan West, Marco Rubio, Nikki Haley, Bobby Jindal, and Tim Scott were elected. For all their imperfections, the Republican Party are by and large not racist assholes.

By and large maybe no. But primaries are about the base... The hardcore. Do you seriously see that element of the party showing up strong for Cain?

[General Mung Beans]

No doubt he's getting a bump from his biblical inspired tax plan. But i'll paraphrase Bill Maher from the other night do you really think the Republicans are going to allow an election where there isn't a white guy? If i was a betting man i'd say old fashioned racism should guarantee Mitt 'Milk Toast' Romney nomination.

Yeah that's why Alan West, Marco Rubio, Nikki Haley, Bobby Jindal, and Tim Scott were elected. For all their imperfections, the Republican Party are by and large not racist assholes.

By and large maybe no. But primaries are about the base... The hardcore. Do you seriously see that element of the party showing up strong for Cain?

And all these candidates I mentioned had to win the primaries and all of them except Haley and Jindal had strong Tea Party support. And from talk radio and whatnot, The Tea Party is throughly enamored with Cain and the poll numbers prove it.

[Mr Bean]

Yeah that's why Alan West,

Won with lots of independent votes he was in a Democratic district and had shit tons of money behind him to get rid of the person who was there before him

Marco Rubio

Is Latino, looks white.

Nikki Haley Bobby Jindal

Are Indian

And Tim Scott? Let me quote Wiki here for a fine line

Elected in November 2010 to the 112th Congress, he and Allen West of Florida are the first Republican African-American Representatives from the South since Reconstruction

However Tim Scott is your best case of someone in a reliably Republican district who is a minority winning. So of your list of five you got only one who was Republican running in a Republican district winning with Republican votes. However I'll note that the first District is on the shore it's not a middle of SC but has large shares of new residents and more affluent residents.

[General Mung Beans]

Yeah that's why Alan West,

Won with lots of independent votes he was in a Democratic district and had shit tons of money behind him to get rid of the person who was there before him

As one of 32 African-American Republican candidates for Congress in 2010, West said he supported the Tea Party movement and dismissed the notion that the movement was motivated by racism as a creation of liberal critics and the news media.[26] West has been described as a "tea party star" and makes frequent appearances on Fox News. [27] He became a member of the congressional Tea Party Caucus in February, 2011. [28] West defeated incumbent Ron Klein by a margin of 8.6%.

Marco Rubio

Is Latino, looks white.

He said non-white, not black.

Nikki Haley Bobby Jindal

Are Indian

See above.

And Tim Scott? Let me quote Wiki here for a fine line

Elected in November 2010 to the 112th Congress, he and Allen West of Florida are the first Republican African-American Representatives from the South since Reconstruction

Not so much that Republicans don't want to nominate blacks then not that many blacks want to run as Republicans.

[Mr Bean]

He said non-white, not black.

Ahh I missed that qualifier, then conceded on Rubio/Jindal/Haley.