Russia's demographic crisis at an end?

[Vympel]

http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2012/02/ ... sis-ended/

2. Births continue to rise, with Total Fertility Rates reaching 1.57 in 2010 and 1.60 in 2011. This is marginally higher than the EU average (1.59 in 2009), and similar to Canada (1.67 in 2009) and to Estonia (1.62 in 2009), which was the majority-Christian nation least affected by the demographic crisis after the Soviet collapse. Life expectancy is still dismal by industrialized country standards but is immeasurably better than before, having increased to 70.3 years in 2011. Russians have never lived longer; the previous two peaks were in 1964, at 69.9 years, and in 1986-87, at 70.0 years.

...

3. The structure of mortality has improved a lot, with fewer Russians dying from external causes (the bulk of which, in its case, are caused by drunkenness). Suicides, homicides, and deaths from alcohol poisoning are all now below the levels of 1990, the last year of Soviet “normality.” They are still far above the levels they should be but I am confident they will continue to improve as the effects of excise taxes and regulations causes alcohol culture to transform into the more reasonable forms seen in the US and Western Europe.

...

Interesting read.

[DudeGuyMan]

The structure of mortality has improved a lot, with fewer Russians dying from external causes (the bulk of which, in its case, are caused by drunkenness). Suicides, homicides, and deaths from alcohol poisoning are all now below the levels of 1990, the last year of Soviet “normality.” They are still far above the levels they should be but I am confident they will continue to improve as the effects of excise taxes and regulations causes alcohol culture to transform into the more reasonable forms seen in the US and Western Europe.

So wait, just how drunk ARE the Russians? I mean sure you hear the stereotype about how those Russians sure are drunks, but half the ethnicities in the world have that stereotype to one extent or another. I didn't really think it meant anything.

[K. A. Pital]

1. Bad reporting. Cardio-related deaths are actually partly attributable to alcohol, and they are the leading cause of death.
2. Yup, the ALE has improved to 70 years. It does not mean that this is normal by Second World standards. Poorer nations managed to get bigger gains in ALE during 1990-2011.
3. Fertility gains are temporary, that is admitted by leading Russian demographers. In fact, there was a lowering of fertility rates since the end of 2010. The reason is that the 1980's "boom" generation has entered reproductive age around 2006, which boosted the fertility. However, right now we're entering the 1990s, and this generation is very small compared to the one born in the 1980s. It will enter childbirth age, but it will not produce many children. Therefore the Russian population will continue to decline.

Both ROSSTAT and UNDP project a decline to 130 or 110 million people (depending on various factors) by 2050.

[Vympel]

Just a note in relation to Point 3:-

5. For those smart-ass commentators who are going to talk about the “echo effect” of declining birth rates as women from the diminished 1990′s cohort come of age, please note that:

(A) The purpose of this post is primarily to avail readers of the latest developments, which have barely even been covered by the Russian media let alone the likes of Eberstadt.

(B) This effect is implicitly addressed in my models. I’m not going to argue with you on this until or unless you first read this post (which describes my models) and this discussion.

I don't know much about this issue, but from reading the linked discussion, there appears to be some wiggle room there (in the "various factors" department). But the arguments alone are fascinating.

[Lord of the Abyss]

So wait, just how drunk ARE the Russians? I mean sure you hear the stereotype about how those Russians sure are drunks, but half the ethnicities in the world have that stereotype to one extent or another. I didn't really think it meant anything.

As I've understood it, it's not so much a matter of Russians normally drinking too much; it's a matter of them suffering extreme distress due to the conditions they've been living under since the fall of the USSR and drinking heavily to deal with it.

[K. A. Pital]

I am taking ROSSTAT projections to have greater value than those of an unnamed blogger. The fertility rise in the 2006-2010 timeframe was adequately predicted by the demographers. Moreover, there is a complete ignorance that in the end of 2010 there was a fertility drop, which is an independent factor from "heat wave deaths" and has little to do with mortality (unless you'd think old people dying from heat are the ones that are responsible for birth rate gains).