Ukraine thread -

[Grumman]

Picture 32 is interesting. Why would the police be pitching Molotovs at the protesters? Isn't it generally the other way around, or are the Ukrainian police out of better options?

I suspect it's more a case of the Molotov landed near the cop and he decided to throw it back before it went off on him.

Yeah, pretty much. If you look, identical, broken bottle lies behind him.

There's also this photo:

I'm no expert, but I'm fairly certain that throwing away a molotov cocktail does not require that you light it first.

[PeZook]

Perhaps Poland, the Czech Republic or other Eastern European nations can provide do's and don't's on how to manage such a transition.

We still have no idea how we didn't collapse into total anarchy. People pretend they know, but the explanations are often contradictory.

We're quite eager to share in this knowledge, though

[Thanas]

Police in the past two days have used shotguns against reporters. Report was this morning on german tv with footage.

[Irbis]

I'm no expert, but I'm fairly certain that throwing away a molotov cocktail does not require that you light it first.

It might have went out in snow?

I don't know, these guys have access to real grenades and flashbangs, maybe I just don't see why they would bother with crude makeshift weapons more dangerous to the user than the target.

Anyway, small update is, Yanukowych is now in talks with opposition leaders, sadly, they barely control even most of democratic protesters, nationalist ones don't listen to them at all. As I said, oligarchs backing Yanukowych don't really care for ideology or keeping absolute power that much, they now want him to do anything to quell the protests. Ironically, opposition demands are unconstitutional, and doing any of them means breaking the law, then there is the matter if Yanukowych will agree to repeat of 2004.

[K. A. Pital]

The repeal of the 16 Oct laws will be a bargain that the government can use to forge a deal. However, while this may stop most protest activity, it's unlikely to stop the nationalists.

All in all, Ukraine is going the Yugoslav way.

[mr friendly guy]

The repeal of the 16 Oct laws will be a bargain that the government can use to forge a deal. However, while this may stop most protest activity, it's unlikely to stop the nationalists.

All in all, Ukraine is going the Yugoslav way.

You mean it will split between the (and I am generalising here) the pro Western West part of Ukraine and the pro Russian East part? In this case along political rather than ethnic lines.

[Siege]

We still have no idea how we didn't collapse into total anarchy. People pretend they know, but the explanations are often contradictory.

Could you offer some of the explanations people have come up with? They may be flawed or explain only bits of the big picture, but I'd be interested in hearing them all the same. Poland seems to have done pretty well after 2004, and even bits and pieces of the reason why could be useful insight into how to go about handling similar situations in the future.

[K. A. Pital]

You mean it will split between the (and I am generalising here) the pro Western West part of Ukraine and the pro Russian East part? In this case along political rather than ethnic lines.

You think, but if you look at Ukraine's linquistic map, the language split mirrors the territorial split pretty much exactly. Ethnicity is a made-up construct when we're talking about two so closely living and intermixed ethnicities, after hundreds of years of mixing. But language helps to determine a less nebulous feature: self-identified nationality.

[madd0ct0r]

helpfulyl done by the washington post:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wor ... tid=pm_pop

Format breaking image - http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wor ... uage-k.jpg

[Thanas]

The western parts of the country have apparently organized mass bus services and are now bringing in at least 500 protesters per day and trip.

[K. A. Pital]

The western parts of the country have apparently organized mass bus services and are now bringing in at least 500 protesters per day and trip.

"Now"? The nationalists have been sending football fans and ultras across the country on buses already for weeks now. The fact that this news is presented only now is befuddling.

[cosmicalstorm]

Do you believe that a civil war is likely for Ukraine, Stas? Can you elaborate that claim in brief? It would be very interesting.

[Thanas]

The western parts of the country have apparently organized mass bus services and are now bringing in at least 500 protesters per day and trip.

"Now"? The nationalists have been sending football fans and ultras across the country on buses already for weeks now. The fact that this news is presented only now is befuddling.

I might just have missed it before, I was very busy the past few days.

But the guys they showed on the bus didn't really look like ultras or football fans. They seemed rather normal people.

[Thanas]

Meanwhile, Putin's statement before the EU summit was very telling. He compared the situation in the Ukraine to the ones in Greece and Cyprus, asking how the EU would have reacted had Russia intervened in those conflicts. The statement is laughable but shows clearly how Putin views the Ukraine, as a part of Russia.

[mr friendly guy]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-29/u ... uk/5226644

Ex-president Leonid Kravchuk warns the country is on brink of 'civil war'

Ukraine's first post-independence president has warned the country is on the brink of "civil war" as its parliament debates an amnesty for protesters.

Leonid Kravchuk, who was president from 1991 to 1994, opened the debate in parliament by urging everyone involved to "act with the greatest responsibility" to resolve the continuing crisis.

"All the world acknowledges and Ukraine acknowledges that the state is on the verge of civil war," he said.

"There are parallel authorities in the country and there is a de-facto uprising.

"It is a revolution. It is a dramatic situation in which we must act with the greatest responsibility.

"We need to ease the confrontation between the sides and agree a plan to solve the conflict. We need to work on this plan step by step to ease the confrontation."

Embattled president Viktor Yanukovych wants any amnesty conditional on demonstrators leaving official buildings but the opposition has so far ruled this out and is demanding early elections.

Mr Kravchuk has for several weeks been leading roundtable talks aimed at finding a solution to the crisis and, in a sign of the importance of the parliamentary session, was joined by fellow former presidents Leonid Kuchma and Viktor Yushchenko.

All the world acknowledges and Ukraine acknowledges that the state is on the verge of civil war.
Former president Leonid Kravchuk
Ukraine's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, had earlier opened the second day of a session aimed at easing tensions with protesters by debating an amnesty for dozens of activists arrested in the unrest.

The discussions come a day after scrapping anti-protest laws passed January 16 which had heightened the current tensions.

The opposition has maintained its demand that the amnesty should be unconditional and speaker Volodymyr Rybak admitted on the negotiations were proving tough.

Pro-EU protesters must be listened to: Merkel

Meanwhile, German chancellor Angela Merkel has underlined her support for Ukraine's pro-European protesters, saying their demands must be heard.

In a speech to Germany's parliament, Ms Merkel hailed the "courageous demonstrations" against the Ukrainian government.

"They are fighting for the same values that guide the European Union and that is why they must be listened to," she said.

She said "pressure" created by the opposition rallies had already borne fruit in the talks with Mr Yanukovych about "necessary political reforms".

"We support, with all the means at our disposal, efforts for a peaceful solution of the conflict and the justified demands of the opposition."

They are fighting for the same values that guide the European Union and that is why they must be listened to.
German chancellor Angela Merkel
Ms Merkel's comments came as it emerged Russian president Vladimir Putin had instructed his government to honour agreements for Russia to lend $15 billion to Ukraine and cut the price of gas it sells to its crisis-hit neighbour.

Mr Putin's order, reported by Interfax news agency, underscored his pledge at a Russia-European Union summit in Brussels on Tuesday, when asked whether Russia would review the aid package if the opposition took power in Kiev.

Mass demonstrations began on the streets of the Ukrainian capital in late November after Mr Yanukovych abandoned a trade deal with the EU in favour of the deal with Russia.

Ms Merkel praised mediation work by EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who was expected to hold talks on the crisis in Kiev on Wednesday, shadowed by a warning to the West by Mr Putin not to meddle in Ukraine's internal affairs.

[K. A. Pital]

Meanwhile, Putin's statement before the EU summit was very telling. He compared the situation in the Ukraine to the ones in Greece and Cyprus, asking how the EU would have reacted had Russia intervened in those conflicts. The statement is laughable but shows clearly how Putin views the Ukraine, as a part of Russia.

Most of his life Russia and Ukraine were a single state. His view is pretty much natural and most Russians share it, actually. Hell, you can travel to most post-Soviet republics without travel passports. This level of integration and mutual permeability of borders is changing only recently with the rows in Russia-Georgia relations, for example. Though I doubt Ukraine would ever go as far as introducing a travel passport or worse yet a visa regime - this would immediately cripple their economy far worse than even all the recent rows.

Revanchism in general is hot in Russia, so by being revanchist you score points. By being revanchist and racist (saying that you'll bring Ukraine and Belorussia into Russia again while leaving Central Asia out and separated) one can score even more points. Sad but true.