Can a Trump occur in Australia [OP]

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mr friendly guy
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Can a Trump occur in Australia [OP]

Post by mr friendly guy »

http://www.news.com.au/national/politic ... 037437bf7e
Why Australia is no better than the US

AUSTRALIANS have spent the fortnight feeling slightly smug that we have not had our own divisive social crisis in the vein of Donald Trump or Brexit.
We’ve been patting ourselves on the back about the fact Americans want to move to Australia and insisting that the politics of hatred and anger bubbling over in the States could never take hold here.
Yet all the signs since election day suggest such a rupture in our cultural fabric is a not-too-distant possibility.
Fear and resentment is building in Australia, and the political establishment appears to have learnt nothing from America’s mistakes.
Labor leader Bill Shorten sezied the opportunity to insist he would “heed the lessons” from the Rust Belt and buy, build and employ Australian, while Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull retorted that he was “playing shabby political games” with the monumental news.
Politicians and thought leaders insisted Pauline Hanson could never be elected Prime Minister on Q&A, shortly before the One Nation leader praised Mr Shorten for backing her call for a crackdown on foreign worker visas.
Meanwhile, the Government has unveiled its bizarre scheme to have the US resettle refugees who are being held in offshore processing centres on Nauru and Manus Islands — if Mr Trump doesn’t back out.
And last week polarising former PM Tony Abbott spoke out to applaud the President-elect’s position on climate change, saying the “moral panic” about global warming was “over the top.”
Such antagonistic behaviour is only gaining momentum as the Trumpian era gets underway.

A GROWING SENSE OF ALIENATION’
Allan Patience, principal fellow in the Asia Institute at the University of Melbourne, told news.com.au the conditions are ripening for our Trump-xit moment Down Under.
“There’s a growing sense of alienation and a locking out of the economy we’ve been seeing for 30 years, which has intensified since the Global Financial Crisis,” he said. “It’s creating serious social problems and great social inequality.
“There are many indicators: crime rates rising, more incidences of pathologies including anxiety, angry graffiti in working class suburbs in Melbourne and Sydney.”
It’s paved the way for the emergence of far-right voices from Ms Hanson, whose party has four senators in federal Parliament, to groups like Reclaim Australia, whose sympathisers are taking to the streets in droves following the US election result.
Just as white supremacists and the Ku Klux Klan latched on to Mr Trump’s movement, the more extreme elements of Australian society simply need a viable leader.
The right-wing faction of the Liberal Party has already started tapping in to their insecurities, with George Chistensen demanding that no more 457 visas for foreign workers are issued in central and north Queensland, since, “Australian jobs should be for Australian workers.” More surprisingly, the Labor Party is on his side.
Benjamin Isakhan, Associate Professor of Politics and Policy Studies at Deakin University, notes that Clive Palmer is a right-wing, populist leader of just the same type as America’s new Commander in Chief.
“He has all the same hallmarks,” Associate Professor Isakhan told news.com.au. “He wasn’t successful but someone of his ilk may rise through the ranks.”

‘THEY ARE UTTERLY CUT OFF’
The resentment simmering in this country springs from similar factors seen in the UK and US, a combination of economic and cultural forces.
Jobless, disenfranchised Australians who feel their identity is being eroded are blaming immigration, with politicians and the media abjectly failing to address their concerns.
More than a million Australians are now “underemployed”, wanting an average of 13.5 hours extra per week or two million days.
Serious job poverty is feeding a wave of “humiliation that the government is not picking up on,” according to Professor Patience. He said an almost “almost fundamentalist” belief in a range of public policies had “blinds them to the real humiliation” felt by so many Australians.
“Like many establishment politicians in America — certainly the Democrats and some Republicans — they are utterly cut off,” he added.
Assoc Prof Isakhan says that right-wing politicians are trying to sate the panic with draconian measures, while the left responds with the polar opposite viewpoint and a refusal to engage on people’s concerns. The issue has become too politically loaded to discuss.
Mr Trump’s call for a total ban on Muslim immigration, and his grand vision for his wall between the US and Mexico, is echoed in Malcolm Turnbull’s plan to ban asylum seekers who arrive by boat from ever settling in Australia.
Immigration Minister Peter Dutton warned the threat “had not subsided” and that if Labor did not support the bill, they risked “border chaos.”

‘IF WE NEED SCAPEGOATS, WE’LL KNOW WHERE TO LOOK’
Australia has the potential for a Brexit, a Trump or a far-right backlash of the kind seen across Europe, but we have yet to see the street riots and racist violence that have broken out elsewhere in the world.
The experts say that perhaps the one thing saving us from anarchy — a feeling that certainly threatened during the election — is our very isolation.
For Assoc Prof Isakhan, it was a cancer that started in 2008 that has in many ways led to the shock events of this year. “Perhaps the thing protecting us is our economy,” he says. “We survived the financial crisis and live lives of relative prosperity.
“If Australia suffered some kind of economic crisis, the right ingredients are there.”
The professor says immigration is not the only issue in the US, the picture is much bigger and more complicated. But he believes Australia could avoid some of the same problems through a “robust public debate” in which people can air their insecurities free from a fear of retribution.
He warned that ordinary suburban families had been “whipped into a frenzy” over immigrants since the 2001 Tampa affair, when the Howard government refused to allow a Norwegian freighter carrying rescued refugees to enter Australian waters.
“If we need scapegoats, we’ll know where to look.”

Posted without comment for now. Will put my thoughts to screen when time permits.
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The Romulan Republic
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Re: Can a Trump occur in Australia [OP]

Post by The Romulan Republic »

The rise of bigoted, authoritarian populism can occur anywhere their are angry people and a charismatic asshole.

Rather than looking at America and feeling smug and superior, the rest of the world should take Trump, like Brexit, as a wake-up call. That they cannot rest safely on the assumption that "It will never happen here".
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Gandalf
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Re: Can a Trump occur in Australia [OP]

Post by Gandalf »

We've already had .75 of Trump in the form of Tony Abbott.

Look at the history of his dealing with Gillard while he was head of the opposition. He got the job when the rest of the party stumbled to find a proper leader and happened to be a well known conservative Christian when an unmarried female atheist became Prime Minister. She was one of our better PMs of late, but his buffoonery and misogyny ran rings around her in the media.
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mr friendly guy
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Re: Can a Trump occur in Australia [OP]

Post by mr friendly guy »

For some reason Abbott struck me as a more rip shirt Putin wannabe than a Trump. Must be because of the amount of times they talked about him in speedos.
Never apologise for being a geek, because they won't apologise to you for being an arsehole. John Barrowman - 22 June 2014 Perth Supernova.

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mr friendly guy
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Re: Can a Trump occur in Australia [OP]

Post by mr friendly guy »

We have some of the same "risk factors" as it were that the US has, although in some ways they are to a lesser extent, which hopefully will insulate us against a Trump type figure.

Lets go through them

1. Economic disenfranchisment

There is a gap between the boomers and the millenials, but we also avoided a recession during the GFC due to a stimulus package and also China partially shielded us with its construction boom. Whether our economy falters as China restructures will be another matter, although iron ore prices are temporarily up. However the point remains, it hasn't faltered just yet.

I don't think we have these dying mining towns in the same amount as the US coal towns (see coal town thread). In any event, their numbers would not be that many, since most of the population lives in the capital cities.

2. Refugees are already detained and arrive in much smaller numbers

We are the country that went apeshit (well the right wing did anyway) over asylum seekers "throwing their children overboard." Of course the logical explanation for that was that their boat was sinking, so they put life jackets on their kids and threw them overboard before the boat sank. Of course since we gave the middle finger to Occam's razor, the real explanation was that the asylum seekers deliberately threw their kids overboard to attract the attention of the Australian navy, and then sank the boat shortly after so there was no way to go back to the boat, so the navy had to rescue them. They totally disregarded the safety of their children, which was why they put those life jackets on them. Yeah, that totally makes sense.

However, since a lot of the "queue jumpers" are already detained, the bad eggs among them haven't had the opportunity to go into the community and commit crimes or perish the thought, seek employment. This makes it harder to use the term "Rapefugee" or complaining about illegal immigrants taking our jobs. Granted, we did make a mountain out of a molehill about "children overboard," but I think its harder to use the vitriol here.

Of course we do have the 457 work visa, but since they aren't exactly illegal, we can't use the protect our borders argument on these visa holders.

3.Our trade with China is different compared to Americas.

We have (at least a few years ago) consistent trade surplus with China. We also recognise China's market economy status. Increase in mining jobs was because of demand for raw materials from China. So its harder for us to complain too much about China "taking our jobs." Or raping us (Jesus I am getting an image of a panda giving anal to a bald headed eagle now, thanks Trump).
Never apologise for being a geek, because they won't apologise to you for being an arsehole. John Barrowman - 22 June 2014 Perth Supernova.

Countries I have been to - 14.
Australia, Canada, China, Colombia, Denmark, Ecuador, Finland, Germany, Malaysia, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, USA.
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Gandalf
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Re: Can a Trump occur in Australia [OP]

Post by Gandalf »

I think the greatest risk factor for a more Trump-like figure in Australia is the international ideoscape. Australian right wing people see the right wing populism of Trump/Brexit are inspired. At any rate, it has certainly made a return of Abbott more likely as conservative elements of the LNP see themselves losing out to One Nation and other Angry White People groups for space in the public consciousness.

For the time being, I don't think there's a champion of that part of the political spectrum aside from the likes of Bernardi. Maybe Lambie. :P
"Oh no, oh yeah, tell me how can it be so fair
That we dying younger hiding from the police man over there
Just for breathing in the air they wanna leave me in the chair
Electric shocking body rocking beat streeting me to death"

- A.B. Original, Report to the Mist

"I think it’s the duty of the comedian to find out where the line is drawn and cross it deliberately."
- George Carlin
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Re: Can a Trump occur in Australia [OP]

Post by The_Saint »

I find it interesting that here in Australia the right wing political establishment has had it's support strengthened from the rise of international right wing politics but also the movement(s) have become fragmented as differing political options become available.

Once upon a time to choose a conservative right wing political option at election time meant voting Liberal. Now with One Nation, Liberal Democrats, etc and a greater number of fringe parties and independents the voter is spoiled for choice. This has increased the overall conservative right wing balance of power but I feel it has weakened the one major option that has previously unified the right wing establishment. As long as everyone on the right still squabbles amongst themselves we have a hope of keeping everything in balance.

As the article mentions: as soon as someone can unify the right behind a popular leader we'll have trouble.
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