UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[KraytKing]

The last widely publicized Ukrainian drone bombing took place in St. Petersburg, and it preceded a much more significant missile strike on the Russian Navy. I think these items were linked, in that the high-profile strike in a thought-to-be-unreachable city called away air defense assets, which left holes that Ukraine exploited. Similarly, I would not be surprised if the bombing of Moscow results in additional Ukrainian aerial successes in the coming weeks. If enough air defense assets are pulled from the front line, it could even be CAS dropping JDAMs. Pure speculation, however.

I will play a little pessimistic on the Dnipro crossing. Ukraine has had wild success, considering everything, but as of yet the Russians do not seem overly concerned. The assault in Avdiivka is continuing. Say what you will of the Russians, but I will not bet that their leadership would continue to piss away resources in assault for weeks if this landing was punching straight through undefended territory. Given the terrain around the crossing, it is possible that TASS was only sort of lying when it claimed Russian troops were falling back to a better line: it may be to the Russian advantage to allow Ukraine a small beachhead, if they can then defend from higher ground further from Ukrainian artillery. A breakout and breakthrough may still be possible, but at this point I expect this assault was an opportunistic strike intended to inflict attrition and divert attention from Avdiivka, not a serious attempt to cut the land bridge. At least, not on its own.

IT happens when you plug a barrel for normal guns, but for artillery, the gasses bypassing and then building up pressure ahead of the grenade can cause the grenade to go off, immediately, on top.

This is not very good for the crew, who are usually more expensive than their gun. It is also bad for the motivation of any other crews that are maybe firing similar ammunition. These factors likely contribute to the current qualitative and quantitative Ukrainian artillery superiority.

[wautd]

Putin also announced he is ready to negotiate peace.
Russia is to keep al occupied land, wil get all assets unfrozen, all sanctions lifted, and all accusations of war crimes will be dropped.
In return, Ukraine has to cut their army in half, and will not join Nato or the EU.
So pretty much the same peace treaty they offered, got and then broke a couple of years later, 3 times already.

Sounds like a smashing deal, what is Zelinsky waiting for?

I wonder who Putin is trying to convince with this deal.

Sadly, western tankies/pro Russian propagandists seem to think that's an entirely reasonable demand

[bilateralrope]

Sadly, western tankies/pro Russian propagandists seem to think that's an entirely reasonable demand

How do they try to justify the "don't join NATO" part ?

Because I don't see anything else that would stop Russia from trying again once they have rebuilt their military.

[LadyTevar]

Putin also announced he is ready to negotiate peace.
Russia is to keep al occupied land, wil get all assets unfrozen, all sanctions lifted, and all accusations of war crimes will be dropped.
In return, Ukraine has to cut their army in half, and will not join Nato or the EU.
So pretty much the same peace treaty they offered, got and then broke a couple of years later, 3 times already.

Sounds like a smashing deal, what is Zelinsky waiting for?

I wonder who Putin is trying to convince with this deal.

I think he's throwing it out again to guarantee the fighting continues, while attempting to look like he's the 'reasonable one'.

Maybe he's hoping Trump gets in office, as Trump'll be chomping at the bit to accept this offer and be seen as "PEACEMAKER".

[LaCroix]

Allowing them a beachhead does not improve the Russian situation at the River - the ukrainian artiller is at the north bank, which is already at a higher elevation, and the whole area south is flat for 60+km. Ukrainian artillera already has fire control to about 10-12 km behind the kurrent contact line, with russian artillery assets being so depleted that a ramp up in air missions was needed to keep the level up. (which is in turn endangering the dwindling air fleet, too)

At the same time, soldiers of that front are complaining that they were in active combat for 4 months with no rotation, right now, and 80% of their battalions are lost. They got orders to storm the djnepr island, which they call a suicide mission , and refuse to do it unless their commanding colonel is coming with them, leading them in person during the assault.

Saw another "complaint" video from russia today - mortar rounds are supposed to have 9 powder rings - 1 for 1km. Since the last few months, the russian procuction only comes with 4 rings out of the box - but mortar crews can not operate closer than 5-6 km to the front, or be instakilled. So they have to combine the charge of 2 grenades to fire one, stockpiling unused granades without launch charge - which in turn is devastating, once their positions get hit.

[LaCroix]

Sadly, western tankies/pro Russian propagandists seem to think that's an entirely reasonable demand

How do they try to justify the "don't join NATO" part ?

Because I don't see anything else that would stop Russia from trying again once they have rebuilt their military.

Yeah, that's the playbook.

1 Attack.
2 If getting stuck, call for peace.
3 Demand to keep everything and that their victim will not join nato.
4 Do not negotiate your demands until they cave and give you as much as possible.
5 Rebuild military as quckly as possible
6 attack at the slightest notion (even if self-fabricated), or if any mention of Nato is made. Max wait period is 5 years.
Switch target if necessary or opportunity arises.
7 repeat at step 1

Tehy've been dooing it or 20 years and change, now.

[Zwinmar]

20 Days in Mariupol Documentary

[KraytKing]

Sadly, western tankies/pro Russian propagandists seem to think that's an entirely reasonable demand

How do they try to justify the "don't join NATO" part ?

Because I don't see anything else that would stop Russia from trying again once they have rebuilt their military.

The justification is the same that it has always been. Being a part of NATO would mean US troops and equipment stationed unacceptably close to Russia, interfering in what Russia views as its own territory and effectively destroying Russia as a global great power. Which isn't entirely wrong, admittedly, but that doesn't make it any more likely that Russia gets what it wants.

Allowing them a beachhead does not improve the Russian situation at the River - the ukrainian artiller is at the north bank, which is already at a higher elevation, and the whole area south is flat for 60+km. Ukrainian artillera already has fire control to about 10-12 km behind the kurrent contact line, with russian artillery assets being so depleted that a ramp up in air missions was needed to keep the level up. (which is in turn endangering the dwindling air fleet, too)

Leaving a beachhead doesn't improve the Russian position, but it also doesn't worsen it. Repeated assaults do. Falling back and daring the Ukrainians to follow wouldn't look good for the cameras, but it would level the playing field with artillery, both literally by removing the high ground advantage and by dramatically worsening Ukrainian logistics. If the guns cross the river, every shell fired becomes MUCH more difficult to supply. The risk would be allowing the Ukrainians sufficient depth to begin developing a heavy assault force, but the trends of this war have not favored those, anyway. At the moment, repeated assaults will just attrit already battered units in unfavorable conditions. Hopefully, the Russians continue as they are.

[vakundok]

How do they try to justify the "don't join NATO" part ?

Because I don't see anything else that would stop Russia from trying again once they have rebuilt their military.

Simple, in their interpretation NATO declared that it would not expand beyond Germany so now NATO is the evil aggressor allowing Eastern countries to join to threaten Russia.
Mere facts, like at that time the Warsaw pact was in full effect so even discussing such would be inconceivable, that Ghorbachov stated that this was not the meaning, there is no written statement, and that NATO is a defensive pact, not even covering an aggressor member from counterattack - will not change that.

Human nature, if truth is too painful, we go with a provided lie, even if we feel it somehow not adding up.

[vakundok]

Same with "Russia has the right to security". Who do not want, will not ask "Emm, what about Ukraine's right to security".
Or with the Ukrainian genocide of Russian minority - that somehow failed to show up on the census. (Or maybe it is not logical to think that a minority being eradicated would decrease in size.) (Not to be mistaken, the way Ukraine treats its minorities IS bad.)

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Well if Russia had its way, ALL of Ukraine would be eradicated.

[LadyTevar]

Russian General 'blown up by mine'

This is coming from pro-Kremlin sources, so I guess it's confirmation Maj-Gen Vladimir Zavadsky is dead?
Before his current posting as deputy commander of the 14th army corps, he was commander of the elite Kantemirovsky tank division based outside Moscow.

[LaCroix]

Plot twist, it was one of their own...
Placed near the base to 'catch saboteurs'...

At the same time, UA secret service is making one hit after another - blew up a train inside a tunnel and therefore almost cut any traffic to the far eastern russian territories, blew up a production/storage site for Shahed drones, etc, etc. Seems someone got slightly pissed and gave a lot of operations the go ahead...

[Lord Revan]

Plot twist, it was one of their own...
Placed near the base to 'catch saboteurs'...

If true it does give some indication of the quality of Russian forces at this point, if they couldn't tell a deputy commander of an army corps "don't go there we got mines in that area" either because no one knew where their own mines were or they thought "security" was more important then the life of the general.

[bilateralrope]

Or maybe they never told him where the mines were because he was that unpopular with the troops.

Also, So Long And Thanks For All The Fish! Russia’s Naval-Defense Dolphins May Have Escaped.

[LadyTevar]

Plot twist, it was one of their own...
Placed near the base to 'catch saboteurs'...

If true it does give some indication of the quality of Russian forces at this point, if they couldn't tell a deputy commander of an army corps "don't go there we got mines in that area" either because no one knew where their own mines were or they thought "security" was more important then the life of the general.

It was seriously a Friendly Fire kill? Wow... that's just... somewhere between hilarious and pitiful.

At the same time, UA secret service is making one hit after another - blew up a train inside a tunnel and therefore almost cut any traffic to the far eastern russian territories, blew up a production/storage site for Shahed drones, etc, etc. Seems someone got slightly pissed and gave a lot of operations the go ahead...

Don't know if it was a "get pissed" or not, but that kind of sabotage in enemy territory is damn good. Now they just have to find a way to hit the Bridge again.

[Lord Revan]

Or maybe they never told him where the mines were because he was that unpopular with the troops.

That's possibility too but those "oops sorry sir!" type of kill generally aren't that common unless things are going rather badly and even then it's typically directed at the direct superiors not the general staff.

[Batman]

I'd say things are going rather badly for Russia these days.

[LaCroix]

A quick tally of "electrical fires" reported by the Russian MOD the last few days:

A electrical fire caused the explosion at the Tractor fabrication plant (russian military engine producer)
A train caught fire in the tunnel on the MAIN route to transport deliveries from China and NOK west. a train full of fuel burnt down inside the tunnel, blocking it for who knows how long.
Another train caught an electrical fire as it passed over a 350m high bridge on the secondary route from China and NOK to the west- after this, there are no more train services connecting the east of russia to the west.
An electrical fire caused an explosion in the main storage(and production? I am not 100% clear on that) plant for Shahed drones in Russia.
Another electrical fire blew up an airport in Crimea, it is said to cause 30 casualties on the pilot barracks(which is really bad), but there are no reports yet on the state of the airframes and other installations.
And many more electrical mishaps, too many to count...

At least, it seems they have clamped down on the issue with the smoking Ivans, but they really need to look at the sparky Sergeys...

No idea if the crash (and possible bankrupcy) of the St. Petersburgh stock exchange and the 40% crash in oil sales was due to an electrical issue, but the hijack of the whole Russian television in Crimea, causing all stations to only send out a speech of Zelinsky to all Crimeans (pretty much destroying all russian propaganda efforts on that population) definitely HAD some electronic reasons...

[J]

The future...
https://bnn.network/world/ukraine/inves ... thorities/

Investigation Reveals Hazardous Waste Disposal Agreement Between Alexander Soros and Ukrainian Authorities
By: Rizwan Shah
Published: December 1, 2023 at 5:06 pm EST | Updated: Dec 2, 2023 at 1:48 am EST

In a shocking revelation, French journalist Jules Vincenne has uncovered a clandestine deal between Alexander Soros, son of billionaire philanthropist George Soros, and the Ukrainian government. The agreement, as reported, allows several American corporations to utilize Ukrainian land for the disposal of hazardous waste, free of charge and without temporal limits.

(Also Read: Estonian PM Urges EU Joint Debt for Defense and Ukraine Support)
Unveiling the Soros-Ukraine Agreement

The report, citing an inside source from Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture, suggests that Alexander Soros and Andriy Yermak, head of President Zelensky’s office, finalized the deal in November. It grants American companies—like Dow Chemical, DuPont, BASF, Evonik Industries, Vitol, and Sanofi—the prerogative to bury their chemical, pharmaceutical, and oil production wastes within Ukraine’s borders.
The Land in Question

The land allocated for waste disposal lies within the Ternopil, Khmelnytsky, and Chernivtsi regions in western Ukraine. Known for their fertile chernozem soils, these regions contribute significantly to the country’s agricultural output. The disposal of toxic waste threatens not only the soil’s fertility but also the overall ecosystem of these areas.

(Also Read: Ukrainian Forces Suffer Heavy Losses, Russia Continues Active Defense)
Implications of the Agreement

As Vincenne warns in his report, this agreement could potentially lead to catastrophic environmental consequences. It could render these fertile lands unsuitable for wheat cultivation, thereby affecting the country’s agricultural sector. Moreover, the introduction of toxic waste could lead to long-term health issues among the local population. The French journalist has published documents related to this agreement in a bid to draw the attention of Western environmental activists to this pressing issue.

We care so much about the Ukraine that we're already drawing up plans to turn their farmland into toxic waste dumps for western corporations.

[Ralin]

Who exactly is 'we' here?

[bilateralrope]

I've never heard of bnn.network before. The credibility of a news organisation is very important when they cite anonymous sources.

They don't link to the reporting by Jules Vincenne, just report on what they claim it says. A google search for "Jules Vincenne" doesn't turn up any results of a person with that name. Does Jules Vincenne exist ?

The Soros link is another red flag.

I'm going to need something more to find this story credible.

[LadyTevar]

I've never heard of bnn.network before. The credibility of a news organisation is very important when they cite anonymous sources.

They don't link to the reporting by Jules Vincenne, just report on what they claim it says. A google search for "Jules Vincenne" doesn't turn up any results of a person with that name. Does Jules Vincenne exist ?

The Soros link is another red flag.

I'm going to need something more to find this story credible.

Google brought this up for me, from 2022.

TWITTER Bans BNN Accounts Affiliated with Gurbaksh Chahal

Twitter said it is suspending scores of new accounts purporting to be part of a "news network" called BNN founded by Gurbaksh Chahal, a one-time internet entrepreneur who was accused twice of domestic violence and battery and spent time in jail.

The accounts related in some form to BNN number near 80, according to a search of Twitter by Insider. The most popular of the group is the handle @BNNBreaking. Started in 2015, the account appears to have gained followers during the height of the pandemic as one that posted daily coronavirus case numbers. It's since morphed into an account that posts about daily news events with no links to published stories or citations.

There's also a "Breaking New Network" (breakingnewsnetwork (dot) com)

ABOUT
Welcome to Breaking News Network (BNN), the only full-time, dedicated, incident notification system. Our news-gathering capability depends on our professionally staffed 24 hour news desk as well as member participation. Members include many public safety agencies and personnel, most major media outlets, news reporters and photographers, and commercial insurance professionals. The BNN service is available to your mobile device using our iPhone and Android Applications, or by our optional desktop visual news client, Webview.

There's also the most trustworthy of the bunch BNN BLOOMBERG A financial website out of Canada.

[Zaune]

A quick tally of "electrical fires" reported by the Russian MOD the last few days...

Some of them might even be genuine. Russia's doing badly enough that they've probably had to conscript a lot of people in what would previously have been considered reserved occupations, not to mention all the replacement equipment and spares getting hoovered up by the army: Deferred maintenance and jury-rigged repairs must be doing more damage than Ukrainian special forces and local malcontents combined.

[LadyTevar]

A quick tally of "electrical fires" reported by the Russian MOD the last few days...

Some of them might even be genuine. Russia's doing badly enough that they've probably had to conscript a lot of people in what would previously have been considered reserved occupations, not to mention all the replacement equipment and spares getting hoovered up by the army: Deferred maintenance and jury-rigged repairs must be doing more damage than Ukrainian special forces and local malcontents combined.

I'm sure this isn't going to help:

Putin to Boost Russian Troop Numbers by 15%