UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

The same can be said of the Russians, both sides are suffering the same problems to one degree or another, I say fuck the Republicans holding Ukraine hostage to get what they want back home, and fuck Hungary for blocking EU funding.

Russia declares state of emergency after 'Ukraine kamikaze drone attacks' on key airbase

Russia announced a state of emergency in Voronezh, a city on the border with Ukraine, after a major drone attack hit an airbase there.

At least 16 blasts rocked the area and one building was struck despite air defences trying to stop the drones.

Dramatic video captured a blaze in a flat near the base, during which a woman can be heard screaming: "Mother of God, we've got to get the hell out of it."

Voronezh is the main city near the Russian-occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine. The Baltimore airbase, home to bombers used in Ukraine, is close by.

Local news said: "One of the targets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces drones could be the Baltimore airfield. It is located next to Teplichnaya Street, where the drone's debris [fell]."

Russia hasn't officially confirmed any damage at the airbase. The attacks happened in two waves, at around 2am and 5am.

Voronezh's Mayor, Vadim Kstenin, said: "People were evacuated, and a nearby school was opened for them so that they could warm up. All services are in place and working."

He added: "I ask everyone not to touch and not to approach the [drone] debris and fragments. We will repair the damage, and give people the opportunity to return home as soon as possible."

A 10-year-old girl got cuts on her arm, leg and neck, according to Russian authorities. Windows in several flats near the air base were broken.

Officials said that 35 flats in three big buildings were damaged by debris from falling drones. The Russian defence ministry said it had shot down at least five drone-like aircraft. Four more were reportedly stopped over the Belgorod border area.

"An attack by Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles has been repelled over Voronezh by air defence forces on duty," said regional governor Alexander Gusev.

He added: "A fire on a balcony was extinguished in one apartment block. Windows were broken in two more apartment blocks and a number of private houses. Operational services are already working on the ground."

Voronezh, a city of more than one million people, lies some 155 miles from the border with Ukraine.

Ukrainian soldiers destroy Russian Osa air defense system with HIMARS

Ukrainian soldiers with HIMARS destroyed the Russian Osa anti-aircraft missile system in the Southern direction, according to the Special Operations Forces.

Reportedly, while conducting reconnaissance in the southern direction, the crew of the 73rd Marine Center of the Special Forces, despite poor visibility, discovered the Osa anti-aircraft missile system that the enemy used against Ukrainian troops.

The SOF operators adjusted the HIMARS fire of the missile and artillery unit of the Ukrainian Defense Forces to the enemy target.

As a result of the fire damage, the Russian anti-aircraft missile system was destroyed to the ground.

[Vympel]

The same can be said of the Russians, both sides are suffering the same problems to one degree or another-

When you're talking about logistics, degree is all that matters and the Russians are much, much better off in every single metric, as the article notes.

I say fuck the Republicans holding Ukraine hostage to get what they want back home, and fuck Hungary for blocking EU funding.

Even if the Republicans release funding its not going to create any sort of windfall in Ukrainian supply. Its chiefly a question of industrial output, not money, though of course when the money gets released (and it will) this will undoubtedly improve things at least somewhat over the doldrums they are in now.

Ukrainian soldiers destroy Russian Osa air defense system with HIMARS

This is such a baffling article to write. There are multiple videos weekly of the Russians or Ukrainians destroying this or that minor weapons system like an old SA-8, how do they figure this is newsworthy in the slightest?

[J]

Ukrainian soldiers destroy Russian Osa air defense system with HIMARS

This is such a baffling article to write. There are multiple videos weekly of the Russians or Ukrainians destroying this or that minor weapons system like an old SA-8, how do they figure this is newsworthy in the slightest?

This thread seems to be a lot like the Donald Trump threads; it's just people posting everything they can find about how Russia is bad, their military is 3rd world level, and Putin is going to croak any minute now. It's almost as if there's an informal contest on who can hate Russia the most by posting the most ridiculous articles, knowing that no one other than you or me will ever question them.

Also, I believe a lot of folks will be absolutely shocked & appalled when the final casualties are made known. There's a reason Ukraine is trying to conscript all the men who fled to other countries during the war.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/ho ... =106197525
Excerpt:

However, anecdotal evidence of mounting Ukrainian casualties in the war was reinforced by claims made on Ukrainian television this weekend by the country's former prosecutor general.

Yuriy Lutsenko claimed that around 30,000 Ukrainian troops are now being killed or badly wounded per month and that the total casualty toll for wounded and killed in the war is around 500,000.

The Ukrainian government is soon expected to announce a fresh wave of military mobilization, and Lutsenko argued that casualty figures should now be published in order to convey the seriousness of the situation to the Ukrainian public. He said it would help explain why a large number of fresh recruits are needed.

Russian MoD claims around 400,000 Ukrainians killed & wounded which is in the same ballpark.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

It's almost as if there's an informal contest on who can hate Russia the most by posting the most ridiculous articles, knowing that no one other than you or me will ever question them.

That's about as true as you two competing to say just how fucked Ukraine is.
France's Macron to travel to Ukraine in Feb to finalise bilateral security deal

PARIS (Reuters) -French President Emmanuel Macron said on Tuesday he would head to Ukraine in February to finalise a bilateral security guarantee deal under which Paris would deliver more sophisticated weaponry, including long-range cruise missiles.

The trip comes at a time when political infighting in the U.S. and European Union has held up two major packages of assistance for Ukraine.

Macron said some 40 SCALP long-range missiles and several hundred bombs would be delivered in the coming weeks.

"We are going to deliver a lot more equipment and help Ukraine with what it needs to defend its skies," Macron told a news conference. "I will go myself to Ukraine in February and finalise these texts."
France has already delivered about 50 SCALP missiles, which have a range of about 250 km, three times as far as Ukraine's existing missile capacities.

Macron added that Europeans would in the coming weeks ramp up their support for Ukraine so it could continue to defend itself against Russia because Moscow could not be allowed to defeat Ukraine otherwise the security of Europe would be put at risk.

Ukraine's defence minister will be in Paris on Thursday, France's defence ministry said on Tuesday.

G7 countries in June unveiled an international framework for the long-term security of Ukraine to boost its finances and defences against Russia with a view to deterring Moscow from future aggression, officials said.

Ukraine has lobbied for long-term security commitments from its main backers. France has been negotiating bilaterally since June, but there has been scant detail on what countries are willing to do and with the war entering its third year there are questions about how committed Kyiv's allies may be.

French diplomatic sources have said the accord would outline the framework for long-term humanitarian aid, support for reconstruction and military assistance.

Kyiv is seeking to maintain flows of military and financial aid from its Western allies after nearly two years of fighting a full-scale Russian invasion.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was in Kyiv last week to sign a new security agreement and announce an increase in military funding for Ukraine to buy drones, including surveillance, long-range strike and sea drones.

[Gandalf]

This thread seems to be a lot like the Donald Trump threads; it's just people posting everything they can find about how Russia is bad, their military is 3rd world level, and Putin is going to croak any minute now. It's almost as if there's an informal contest on who can hate Russia the most by posting the most ridiculous articles, knowing that no one other than you or me will ever question them.

It's the same as the war on terror years. Every terrorist was an easily thwarted clod driven by irrational cruelty, and thus final victory over them was always imminent.

People are I guess happy to cheerlead this conflict because they never really have to deal with the consequences, and they get the thrill of being on the good guy side of history with minimal effort. An easy perpetual boot on the face of whomever the opposition happens to be this week.

[J]

It's almost as if there's an informal contest on who can hate Russia the most by posting the most ridiculous articles, knowing that no one other than you or me will ever question them.

That's about as true as you two competing to say just how fucked Ukraine is.

You know what the difference is? Vympel and myself have debunked and thoroughly discredited nearly all the pro-Ukrainian propaganda articles posted in this thread. None of you have been able to do the same to anything we've posted.

Also.

It's the same as the war on terror years. Every terrorist was an easily thwarted clod driven by irrational cruelty, and thus final victory over them was always imminent.

People are I guess happy to cheerlead this conflict because they never really have to deal with the consequences, and they get the thrill of being on the good guy side of history with minimal effort. An easy perpetual boot on the face of whomever the opposition happens to be this week.

Sadly, yes. It's virtue signalling, "look at me! Look at me! Look how much I hate Russia and support the Ukraine!" I hope the dopamine hits were worth it.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Are you sure about that? Worth what?

[Vympel]

That's about as true as you two competing to say just how fucked Ukraine is.

Well I don't waste time by posting articles or video of this or that minor Russian victory or Ukrainian humiliation because its not informative or indicative of the true position of the conflict, which is the kind of stuff rah-rah war cheerleaders have been posting to each other all over the internet for almost 2 years at this point.

But leaving that aside, Ukraine is only 'fucked' if your standard for terminating the conflict is a return to Ukraine's 1991 borders, which is just the fantastical, delusional nonsense that western leaders recklessly propagandised their populations with. The messaging on that has clearly changed now (as already noted in this thread) but the Ultimate-Ukrainian-Victory contingent online isn't particularly keen to go along because they can't accept the overwhelming likelihood that the eventual peace deal is going to result in Ukraine being dismembered.

Ukraine's prospects for national survival sans the conquered regions are still decent, though they should've started serious peace talks with the Russians in late 2022 (flush from high profile victories) rather than now, when they're in a far weaker bargaining position and their military health is dire.

In any event, sooner is better. The entire reason this conflict has the contours it has is because western interests are not served by fighting Russia directly. Russia will always care more about Ukraine than they do which is why Russia invaded in the first place, while they sent no troops. Because they will always care less than the Russians, their commitment to throw money and weapons at Ukraine is finite and already tumbling downhill compared to the peak of 2022-early 2023.

Which is why we're hearing all this outrageous 'Afghanisation' bullshit of Ukraine building its own weapons. So they don't have to, because they can't sustain that level of commitment.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Any 'peace' between Ukraine and Russia is going to be a temporary ceasefire at best, nobody believes that Putin is going to be satisfied with merely part of Ukraine and as we've seen already it will only be a matter of time before he or whoever comes after him makes a play for the rest of it.

It's not a matter of how much each side cares about Ukraine, it's because "fighting Russia directly" means waging nuclear war.

[Vympel]

Any 'peace' between Ukraine and Russia is going to be a temporary ceasefire at best, nobody believes that Putin is going to be satisfied with merely part of Ukraine and as we've seen already it will only be a matter of time before he or whoever comes after him makes a play for the rest of it.

The Russians invaded Ukraine with less than 200,000 men. They never had any prospect, or intent, of conquering all of Ukraine, and to think that is to just completely ignore the reasons why this conflict happened in the first place, right up to the demands the Russians made before they attacked and what was being discussed between them in the peace talks in Turkey after the war started. What is happening now is Russia's plan B - if they can't have a neutralized Ukraine, they will forcibly neutralize Ukraine by acquiring strategic depth along their border with new regions and ensuring whatever is left of Ukraine is a dysfunctional, (further) weakened rump, robbed of much of its economic potential due to its lost lands and citizenry.

There's a deal to be had here, if both sides are willing to come to the party. Maximalist aims and insisting the other side is bent on your total destruction and cannot be trusted is not going to get anyone anywhere.

If Ukraine had a prospect of victory then the refusal to entertain negotiation would be rational, but they don't, so it isn't.

It's not a matter of how much each side cares about Ukraine, it's because "fighting Russia directly" means waging nuclear war.

Yes it is. Obama said this back in 2014, he was right then and he's right now. Russia cares more about Ukraine therefore it is willing to bear the pain in blood and treasure invading Ukraine cost it. The West does not care as much, which is why its (of course) unwilling to wage nuclear war over its territorial integrity, and more significantly, why it won't go on a war footing and rectify its emaciated military industry to support Ukraine with unlimited weapons and equipment, and why the political will to maintain support at its previous level financially has evaporated.

[Dominus Atheos]

That's about as true as you two competing to say just how fucked Ukraine is.

Well I don't waste time by posting articles or video of this or that minor Russian victory or Ukrainian humiliation because its not informative or indicative of the true position of the conflict, which is the kind of stuff rah-rah war cheerleaders have been posting to each other all over the internet for almost 2 years at this point.

But leaving that aside, Ukraine is only 'fucked' if your standard for terminating the conflict is a return to Ukraine's 1991 borders, which is just the fantastical, delusional nonsense that western leaders recklessly propagandised their populations with. The messaging on that has clearly changed now (as already noted in this thread) but the Ultimate-Ukrainian-Victory contingent online isn't particularly keen to go along because they can't accept the overwhelming likelihood that the eventual peace deal is going to result in Ukraine being dismembered.

I don't remember that being noted, where was that?

Ukraine's prospects for national survival sans the conquered regions are still decent, though they should've started serious peace talks with the Russians in late 2022 (flush from high profile victories) rather than now, when they're in a far weaker bargaining position and their military health is dire.

In any event, sooner is better. The entire reason this conflict has the contours it has is because western interests are not served by fighting Russia directly. Russia will always care more about Ukraine than they do which is why Russia invaded in the first place, while they sent no troops. Because they will always care less than the Russians, their commitment to throw money and weapons at Ukraine is finite and already tumbling downhill compared to the peak of 2022-early 2023.

Which is why we're hearing all this outrageous 'Afghanisation' bullshit of Ukraine building its own weapons. So they don't have to, because they can't sustain that level of commitment.

Why can't Ukraine build it's own weapons?

Also, why can't the war remain stalemated? Why do you believe Ukraine has to accept a losing peace deal any time soon?

[Ralin]

Also, why can't the war remain stalemated? Why do you believe Ukraine has to accept a losing peace deal any time soon?

The horrific suffering it will continue to inflict on the Ukrainian people, would be the most obvious answer.

[LaCroix]

Well, that's for the Ukrainians to decide, isn't it. As long as they are happy fighting, I am happy with the west supporting them.

Telling them to surrender because WE are concerned about the price THEY are willing to pay is plain old white man's guilt&burden thinking.
We have no right to tell them what to do.

[Dominus Atheos]

Also, why can't the war remain stalemated? Why do you believe Ukraine has to accept a losing peace deal any time soon?

The horrific suffering it will continue to inflict on the Ukrainian people, would be the most obvious answer.

What horrific suffering do you think is being inflicted on them, greater than the London Blitz, Operation Linebacker, or the first atomic bomb, none of which led to a surrender by the receiving country?

[Ralin]

What horrific suffering do you think is being inflicted on them, greater than the London Blitz, Operation Linebacker, or the first atomic bomb, none of which led to a surrender by the receiving country?

Leaving aside that the last example is pretty questionable, the likelihood of actually winning comes to mind. North Vietnamese didn't have the option of voting their president out of office I don't think

Well, that's for the Ukrainians to decide, isn't it. As long as they are happy fighting, I am happy with the west supporting them.

Telling them to surrender because WE are concerned about the price THEY are willing to pay is plain old white man's guilt&burden thinking.
We have no right to tell them what to do.

1) I have some news for you about the ethnic background of most Ukranians and 2) so am I, but given what I'm hearing about their conscription efforts among other things I'm questioning how willing they really are and will continue to be.

Also I don't agree with your characterization of accepting a negotiated peace where they are forced to give up land and make other painful concessions as surrender.

[bilateralrope]

There's a deal to be had here, if both sides are willing to come to the party. Maximalist aims and insisting the other side is bent on your total destruction and cannot be trusted is not going to get anyone anywhere.

The borders of each country is something can be negotiated.

The problem with peace negotiations is that every peace deal I've seen Russia offer has had terms about Ukraine reducing its military and not joining NATO. Which looks a lot like Russia wanting time to rearm before they try again against a weaker Ukraine.

Also, why can't the war remain stalemated? Why do you believe Ukraine has to accept a losing peace deal any time soon?

The horrific suffering it will continue to inflict on the Ukrainian people, would be the most obvious answer.

Suffering that needs to be compared to suffering of the next war. Unless the peace agreement stands a good chance of preventing it.

[Broomstick]

Also, I believe a lot of folks will be absolutely shocked & appalled when the final casualties are made known.

I won't be shocked. I will be appalled - I'm already appalled - but not shocked. Because I've studied a little bit about wars in history and they're all meat-grinders.

Rightly or wrongly most people in the world don't give a damn about people in other countries. At most, it's a day or three of interest in their newsfeed then it's back to their own concerns. It takes effort and propaganda to get them to support participation in foreign conflicts, and that requires the ruling parties to have some sort of interest in the matter.

[Zwinmar]

As bad as we see from various sources I can guarantee that it is far worse. Russia is committing an ethnic genocide by not only mass murder but also by stealing the kids away and brainwashing them, by mass deporting Ukrainians and bringing in Russian settlers. Russia is nothing more than a shitty would be colonial power, one that got its nose bloodied becuase of its own corruption. All the excuses in the world doesn't matter in the face of their failed assault on Kyiv and their relentless assault an hospitals and meat grinder assaults. I don't know how this ends, no one does, I do know that Russia's standing and reputation are greatly diminished along with its young adult male population. The best thing that could happen is its leader get defenestrated and an isolationist takes his place.

[LadyTevar]

And, in answer to Dominus' question "Why Can't Ukraine Build it's Own Weapons"

Russia bombed their industrial complex back in 2016, and again, repeatedly, during this current war.
Ukraine also does not have the materials to build as much as they need, which is also a problem that Russia is having now and why it too is importing weapons from allied nations.

I do not think this war will end this year, because as was stated, the best way to win this war is to hit Russia hard enough to end it, and Ukraine cannot do that. NATO does not *want* do to that, because no one wants WWIII and haven't wanted it ever since the first Nuke Silos were built.

So we play the game through proxies, and because certain politicians are lil shits playing power games of their own, the US is falling down on supplying our Proxy so other NATO countries are having to try to step up. Which, again, prolongs this War because no one is able to make a Defining Hit to tell Russia to take its toys and go home.

[Dominus Atheos]

And, in answer to Dominus' question "Why Can't Ukraine Build it's Own Weapons"

Russia bombed their industrial complex back in 2016, and again, repeatedly, during this current war.
Ukraine also does not have the materials to build as much as they need, which is also a problem that Russia is having now and why it too is importing weapons from allied nations.

I understand that Ukraine probably won't be making new aircraft, or even too many new tanks, but Russian sympathizers are claiming that Ukraine has to capitulate soon because they will run out of artillery shells if the west doesn't give them more. I want to know why they think Ukraine can't produce artillery shells, or other basic war materials that would keep them at least at a stalemate.

[Dominus Atheos]

Just to be clear, my prediction for 2024 is that Ukraine and Russia continue to lay down minefields, shoot each other ineffectually with artillery and pop occasional high value targets with drones, which they could hypothetically do for another 10 years because both are capable of producing mines, artillery shells, and at least buying cheap drones if nothing else changes.

[Zaune]

I understand that Ukraine probably won't be making new aircraft, or even too many new tanks, but Russian sympathizers are claiming that Ukraine has to capitulate soon because they will run out of artillery shells if the west doesn't give them more. I want to know why they think Ukraine can't produce artillery shells, or other basic war materials that would keep them at least at a stalemate.

They probably are still producing some, but it's hard to maintain consistent output volume let alone quality control when the factories are within range of enemy bombers or cruise missiles. Besides, their local manufacturing facilities for cordite, RDX or even industrial quantities of brass and steel are probably in as bad or worse a state.

[LaCroix]

Article about how Ukraine has been ramping up their production by quite some margins.

"Ukrainian Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin stated on December 27 that Ukraine increased the production of mortar rounds by a factor of 42 and the production of artillery shells by a factor of 2.5 in 2023."

This alongside with a huge rampup in drone procuction, development of naval drones, refitting their domestic neptune missiles into AA systems, and creating domestic ballistic missiles, APVs, SPGs, among other things.

https://understandingwar.org/background ... trial-base

This, along with the joint venture projects and the increasing support from EU nations is why Russia is trying to get a ceasefire as soon as possible.

[aerius]

I understand that Ukraine probably won't be making new aircraft, or even too many new tanks, but Russian sympathizers are claiming that Ukraine has to capitulate soon because they will run out of artillery shells if the west doesn't give them more. I want to know why they think Ukraine can't produce artillery shells, or other basic war materials that would keep them at least at a stalemate.

Real life is not a computer game, you don't just click a button and have an ammo plant pop up. First, you need a petrochemical industry to produce the huge amounts of ammonia and other nitrogen compounds used in explosives. These are going to be giant plants which look like oil refineries, you can see the damn things from the moon and they're easily taken out by missiles. Next you need the chemical plants to make the explosives, once again these are going to be fairly large buildings which are hard to hide & easy to hit. Finally we get to the ammo plant itself, it's going to be filled with large furnaces, forge presses, and machine tools. All these things are bespoke items with lead times measured in years, you don't just walk into a Tools 'R Us and buy them off the shelf. Did I mention the ammo plant will be visible from space and easily hit with missiles? Yeah, that too. On top of that, all the above facilities need a reliable supply of electricity and feedstocks to keep everything running, Ukraine doesn't have that anymore.

Everything other than drones & small arms requires a sizable factory along with machinery & tools with long lead times (months to years). Getting the facilities up & running is gonna be really difficult, keeping things running will be next to impossible.

[vakundok]

Is the size of those supply chain elements a technological limitation or efficiency driven?