Is Iran next?

Post by **Colonel Olrik** » 2003-04-27 06:35pm

You know what, forget my previous post. I read Venezuela and thought Argentina somehow. They're very different countries

Admiral Johnason · Post by **Admiral Johnason** » 2003-04-27 06:40pm

yes, one has an okay military while the other is pitiful.

Nathan F · Post by **Nathan F** » 2003-04-27 06:43pm

Admiral Johnason wrote:Would we back a revolution by the people to set up a democratic government?

Probably, be it for better or for worse.

Raptor 597 · Post by **Raptor 597** » 2003-04-27 07:26pm

Admiral Johnason wrote:Actually, I heard the rumor off of both CNN and Fox last night.

Eve worse than political rumours.

Admiral Johnason · Post by **Admiral Johnason** » 2003-04-27 07:45pm

CNN is bad?

Well, I could see Fox, hell this was their war.

Crown · Post by **Crown** » 2003-04-27 11:54pm

Iran is an emerging democracy. While the 'religious' leaders still do demand great power, it is slowly erroding, due to the growing educated middle class in Iran. Also the government continues to become more progressive and liberal as it secures more and more public support.

Also and invasion of Iran would not be similar to an invasion of Iraq. The Iranians (or Persians as they call themselves), have a well educated population with emerging high-tech industry which has demonstrated its ability by maintaning their American F-14 even with total embargo from any western technical assistance. They also have an indigenous arms industry (ranging from missile to small arms and everything in between).

It would be unthinkable for the US to justify the war (not like they actually did a great job with Iraq but hey), and it would be counter-productive. If I was the US administration, I would seek a few confidence building measures, I wouldn't try and support a 'regime' as we all know how well that worked out, but I would try to at least remove them from the 'axis of my imagination'.

phongn · Post by **phongn** » 2003-04-28 12:17am

Crown wrote:Iran is an emerging democracy. While the 'religious' leaders still do demand great power, it is slowly erroding, due to the growing educated middle class in Iran. Also the government continues to become more progressive and liberal as it secures more and more public support.

If we're succesful in Iraq we may provide addition pressure to liberalize in Iran. AFAIK, the religious leaders are still very much in power and not quite willing to give it up.

Also and invasion of Iran would not be similar to an invasion of Iraq. The Iranians (or Persians as they call themselves), have a well educated population with emerging high-tech industry which has demonstrated its ability by maintaning their American F-14 even with total embargo from any western technical assistance. They also have an indigenous arms industry (ranging from missile to small arms and everything in between).

Actually, I think that they managed to keep their Tomcats flying because they cannibalized a bunch of other ones to supply the spare parts.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-04-28 12:21am

phongn wrote: Actually, I think that they managed to keep their Tomcats flying because they cannibalized a bunch of other ones to supply the spare parts.

Pretty much, they only lost a handful in action but where down to something like 20 aircraft by the time the war ended IIRC, and many where not fully operational. Today they still have some flying, but Iran also has developed a quite advanced aviation industry that could make needed parts. Locally produced third generation fighters are not far in the countries future and they already have a prototype or two.