Worlds Spanner wrote:WTF? It's Dean who's the man with a plan. I assume that you think of him as "Mr. Bush is Bad" because he was the first Democrat to have the guts to say it. WHich if you ask me is major points for him.
Part of it is because so much of his position is defined as opposing Bush. Most of his message has been defined by what he's not so he's failing to get his message out. Of course that might well be deliberate since some of his policies aren't necessarly going to go over well.
Durran Korr wrote:I also can't help but wonder how significantly disaffected conservatives will affect the election. If the Bush administration thinks conservatives are going to forget about Bush's spending, writing education bills with TED KENNEDY, the assault weapons ban, the prescription drug benefit, and Rove's disgusting attitude ("where else are you going to go?"), they're sadly mistaken. The only way I'd vote for him at this point is if he passed a national retail sales tax tomorrow.
I think the conservative vote will depend on who the Democratic canidate. If it's one of the farther left candidates I doubt they'll defect so willingly as they would for a more moderate candidate.
And a lot's going to depend on how things go in the next year before the election.
Stormbringer wrote:Part of it is because so much of his position is defined as opposing Bush. Most of his message has been defined by what he's not so he's failing to get his message out. Of course that might well be deliberate since some of his policies aren't necessarly going to go over well.
Howedar wrote:What the living fuck are you talking about!?
What I've seen on the news (mostly focused on Dean speaking out against the war and the tax cut) and in the discussions I've had in American Government. From what it seems Dean is indeed failing to get his message out.
The real conservatives (not the Republican knee-jerks, the guranteed 30%, but the ones who actually hold conservative opinions because they find the arguments more compelling) won't vote Democrat, but they might well stay home or vote for a third party candidate and let Bush go down in flames. It's certainly happened before to both parties. The middle 40% of the electorate will probably split down the middle like they did the last election, especially if Kerry is nominated, meaning that if the conservative idealogues don't vote Republican but the liberal idealogues do vote Democrat, Bush will be in very serious trouble. And remember, whichever party is currently out of power is more likely to see the hardcore constituency unite behind it. I gurantee you Ralph Nader won't get 2+ million votes this time around.
Any city gets what it admires, will pay for, and, ultimately, deserves…We want and deserve tin-can architecture in a tinhorn culture. And we will probably be judged not by the monuments we build but by those we have destroyed.--Ada Louise Huxtable, "Farewell to Penn Station", New York Times editorial, 30 October 1963 X-Ray Blues
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong
"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
Howedar wrote:It was something likening Democrats to commies and stuff. It was cute, but not mindblowingly awesome.
Post it, I DEMAND IT!
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong
"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
RedImperator wrote:The real conservatives (not the Republican knee-jerks, the guranteed 30%, but the ones who actually hold conservative opinions because they find the arguments more compelling) won't vote Democrat, but they might well stay home or vote for a third party candidate and let Bush go down in flames. It's certainly happened before to both parties. The middle 40% of the electorate will probably split down the middle like they did the last election, especially if Kerry is nominated, meaning that if the conservative idealogues don't vote Republican but the liberal idealogues do vote Democrat, Bush will be in very serious trouble. And remember, whichever party is currently out of power is more likely to see the hardcore constituency unite behind it. I gurantee you Ralph Nader won't get 2+ million votes this time around.
Nader's already said that if Dean runs, he won't, so those 2+ million Green votes will probably go to Dean this time around. If the rest of the electoral spread remains unchanged, that's enough to throw the election over.
"Carriers dispense fighters, which dispense assbeatings." - White Haven
| Hyperactive Gundam Pilot of MM | GALE | ASVS | Cleaners | Kibologist (beable) | DFB |
If only one rock and roll song echoes into tomorrow
There won't be anything to keep you from the distant morning glow.
I'm not a man. I just portrayed one for 15 years.
RedImperator wrote:The real conservatives (not the Republican knee-jerks, the guranteed 30%, but the ones who actually hold conservative opinions because they find the arguments more compelling) won't vote Democrat, but they might well stay home or vote for a third party candidate and let Bush go down in flames. It's certainly happened before to both parties. The middle 40% of the electorate will probably split down the middle like they did the last election, especially if Kerry is nominated, meaning that if the conservative idealogues don't vote Republican but the liberal idealogues do vote Democrat, Bush will be in very serious trouble. And remember, whichever party is currently out of power is more likely to see the hardcore constituency unite behind it. I gurantee you Ralph Nader won't get 2+ million votes this time around.
Nader's already said that if Dean runs, he won't, so those 2+ million Green votes will probably go to Dean this time around. If the rest of the electoral spread remains unchanged, that's enough to throw the election over.
Even if he does run, I'll be shocked if he gets more than, say, three quarters of a million votes. When your party is in power, it's easy to get disaffected about your candidate and say, "Well, fuck, I'm not voting for this asshole," which is what a lot of conservatives are starting to say (it's what they said about Bush's father, too). When your party is OUT of power, you're a lot more likely to say, "I'd vote for Hitler if it meant getting rid of the turd in the White House right now." All of the right leaning third parties--Reform, Libertarian, Constitution--were down in 2000 while left leaning thirds, especially the Greens, were up. My prediction is that this year, right leaning third parties are going to be up while the few true Green fanatics are wondering where all their votes went.
Any city gets what it admires, will pay for, and, ultimately, deserves…We want and deserve tin-can architecture in a tinhorn culture. And we will probably be judged not by the monuments we build but by those we have destroyed.--Ada Louise Huxtable, "Farewell to Penn Station", New York Times editorial, 30 October 1963 X-Ray Blues
I think more like a dire warning of things to come.
"Show me an angel and I will paint you one." - Gustav Courbet
"Quetzalcoatl, plumed serpent of the Aztecs... you are a pussy." - Stephen Colbert
"Really, I'm jealous of how much smarter than me he is. I'm not an expert on anything and he's an expert on things he knows nothing about." - Me, concerning a bullshitter
I don't really care much for Hillary Clinton. I'm firmly convinced that she is going to pull her face off one day to reveal that she killed the original Hillary Clinton twenty years ago and replaced her in a convoluted scheme to conquer humanity.
"Show me an angel and I will paint you one." - Gustav Courbet
"Quetzalcoatl, plumed serpent of the Aztecs... you are a pussy." - Stephen Colbert
"Really, I'm jealous of how much smarter than me he is. I'm not an expert on anything and he's an expert on things he knows nothing about." - Me, concerning a bullshitter
theski wrote:If Dean gets the nod.... Then you can right off most of the blue in the south,,,. Clark and Kerry might hold them
Hell, the last time the South really went Democrat was for Jimmy Carter, and that was because he was a good ol' Jawja boy. The Southern Baptist Bloc will mostly vote Republican, because Bush is a master at giving the fundies a mental handjob without actually promising any commitment.
As egotistical as this may sound, Florida's the only Southern state a Democrat can afford to invest in right now. There are enough relocated Yankees and non-conservative Southerners to make it a good contest. We're kinda odd right now in that we've got mostly Republican Representatives and completely Democrat Senators. Gore almost took the state in 2000 (not going to argue about anything in that election, just stating what was officially determined), and I think Bush has overall lost popularity down here. A well-run Democratic campaign could easily switch the state over.
Stanley Hauerwas wrote:[W]hy is it that no one is angry at the inequality of income in this country? I mean, the inequality of income is unbelievable. Unbelievable. Why isn’t that ever an issue of politics? Because you don’t live in a democracy. You live in a plutocracy. Money rules.
