CIA report warns of deteriorating situation

[Hamel]

Oh, snap

CIA warns of defeat

13nov03

A TOP-secret CIA report warns that growing numbers of Iraqis believe the US-led coalition can be defeated and are supporting the resistance.

The report paints a bleak picture of the political and security situation and cautions that the US-led drive to rebuild the country as a democracy could collapse.

Paul Bremer, head of the US-led Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, who arrived unexpectedly in Washington for strategy sessions yesterday, endorsed the CIA's findings, a senior administration official said.

The report's tone and Mr Bremer's private endorsement differ sharply from public assessments.

President George W. Bush, chief aides and Mr Bremer are giving upbeat public pronouncements in an attempt to counter rising anxieties at home over US casualties in Iraq.






The report landed on the desks of senior US officials on Tuesday. The speed of the leak suggested that senior policymakers want to make sure the assessment reaches Mr Bush.

Some senior policymakers have complained of being frustrated in their efforts to provide Mr Bush with analyses that are more sombre than the optimistic views of Vice-President Dick Cheney and Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld.

The CIA analysis suggests US policy in Iraq has reached a turning point, as the Bush administration moves to escalate the war against the guerillas and accelerate the transfer of power.

In Baghdad, the US military announced yesterday it would become more aggressive against former Saddam Hussein loyalists, foreign and Iraqi Islamic extremists and Iraqi nationalists.

The top US general in Iraq, Lieutenant-General Ricardo Sanchez, said: "The most important message is that we are

all going to get pretty tough, and that's what is needed to defeat the enemy, and we are definitely not shy of doing that when it is required."

Such a campaign, however, could cause more civilian casualties and drive more Iraqis to the side of the insurgents.

The CIA assessment also warns that none of the postwar Iraqi political institutions and leaders have shown an ability to govern or even preside over drafting a constitution or holding an election.

US officials have become deeply frustrated by infighting, nepotism and inaction within the 25-member Iraqi Governing Council.

A pullout still is unlikely. I wonder if Bush's strategy is to keep an upbeat spin on the quagmire, so he can have a better chance in the next election, then try to get a draft started.

[Sea Skimmer]

We shall not doubt the word of the top-secret report leaked by the unknown source, no never!

[Hamel]

We shall not doubt the word of the top-secret report leaked by the unknown source, no never!

Paul Bremer is not an unknown source, and he is endorsing what the report said.

[Admiral Valdemar]

We shall not doubt the word of the top-secret report leaked by the unknown source, no never!

Wow, my sarcasm detector has just broken.

[Hamel]

Mine overloaded and shorted out my entire house

[Admiral Valdemar]

Mine overloaded and shorted out my entire house

Really? Truly, I did not know that was a sarcastic comment mentioned before, my detector is oh so needed for me to ascertain this fact.

Okay, I bullshit enough. Does anyone believe a word the CIA says now?

[Hamel]

Does anyone believe a word the CIA says now?

If I recall correctly, CIA findings contradicted a ton of stuff that the Bush admin said before and during the invasion (from what I remember of the Degan v. Axis stuff). Most people here are tired of conflicting claims and usually want to see more than one source when something like this is brought up.

I count Paul Bremer, head of the provisional Authority, as another source. You'd think that he would be among those who would try to put a dishonestly positive spin on the muck, but he certainly isn't doing that right now. So there you have it: I'm inclined to believe this report.