5/6/08 Primaries Results thread

[CaptainChewbacca]

He's really trying hard. I mean, he's visited Fifty-seven states. I can't tell if that was a joke, or if he was just really tired.

[ray245]

He's really trying hard. I mean, he's visited Fifty-seven states. I can't tell if that was a joke, or if he was just really tired.

Some people are already saying obama should not be president if he cannot handle stuff under stress and etc...

[RedImperator]

He's really trying hard. I mean, he's visited Fifty-seven states. I can't tell if that was a joke, or if he was just really tired.

Some people are already saying obama should not be president if he cannot handle stuff under stress and etc...

Who are these "some people"?

[Companion Cube]

He's really trying hard. I mean, he's visited Fifty-seven states. I can't tell if that was a joke, or if he was just really tired.

Some people are already saying obama should not be president if he cannot handle stuff under stress and etc...

At least he hasn't burst into tears.

[Patrick Degan]

He's really trying hard. I mean, he's visited Fifty-seven states. I can't tell if that was a joke, or if he was just really tired.

Some people are already saying obama should not be president if he cannot handle stuff under stress and etc...

Do explain who these "people" are —who BTW are full of shit.

[Zac Naloen]

He's really trying hard. I mean, he's visited Fifty-seven states. I can't tell if that was a joke, or if he was just really tired.

Considering the laughter in the back ground and the sly grin on his face in the video.. how can that be anything but a joke?

If it is serious, it could also mean he's been to some states twice.

[ray245]

He's really trying hard. I mean, he's visited Fifty-seven states. I can't tell if that was a joke, or if he was just really tired.

Some people are already saying obama should not be president if he cannot handle stuff under stress and etc...

Do explain who these "people" are —who BTW are full of shit.

People on other forums...that has alot more conservative members...

[That NOS Guy]

People on other forums...that has alot more conservative members...

So morons then?

[El Moose Monstero]

He's really trying hard. I mean, he's visited Fifty-seven states. I can't tell if that was a joke, or if he was just really tired.

Simple slip of the tongue I'd imagine; just had his 4 and 5 confused. If I was a voter, I'd much rather have Hillary, I mean, she got a sniper and a girl reading a poem confused - which just shows that she's a candidate who's about PEOPLE, not about NUMBERS (particularly numbers relating to voting).

[size=0]sarcasm[/size]

[Patrick Degan]

Some people are already saying obama should not be president if he cannot handle stuff under stress and etc...

Do explain who these "people" are —who BTW are full of shit.

People on other forums...that has alot more conservative members...

Ah, nothing like the "objective" baseless opinions of a bunch of GOP cheerleaders who probably weren't inclined to vote for Obama in the first .

[Havok]

He's really trying hard. I mean, he's visited Fifty-seven states. I can't tell if that was a joke, or if he was just really tired.

Some people are already saying obama should not be president if he cannot handle stuff under stress and etc...

At least he hasn't burst into tears.

THAT is purely a tactic.

[ray245]

People on other forums...that has alot more conservative members...

So morons then?

More or less...that's why I'm getting tired of knocking any sense into those people on other forums. Hell, those people actually thinks that they are considered liberals...

[CmdrWilkens]

Clinton is beyond the point where crowing about a single primary victory, even a big one, will be of any use whatsoever. Obama is now tied or slightly ahead in superdelegates, it's a mathematical certainty he will gain a majority of pledged delegates in Oregon, and his fundraising advantage has gone from huge to astronomical (if anyone is still donating to Hillary Clinton besides Hillary Clinton, I'll be stunned). Nobody is even listening to Hillary Clinton anymore, or else those white voter remarks she made to USAToday would be the top story everywhere.

All I have to say to that is go to RCP and look at the sheer VOLUME of editorial space spent discussing if Hillary should stay or go. She has lost, I'm not disputing that and no rational person would BUT, and again i say BUT. What can and will happen is that if she wins BIG in WV, as in really picks up on the delegate margin big then all of a sudden those same pundits who have spent the last week "wondering" if she should stay in will be convinced that she should stay in. The whole right wing media apparatus will kick into high gear about Obama's "White problem" and we will spend all the time until he wins Oregon talking about how Hillary is still relevant to the race.

Not even the American media could claim the race is back on after WV, and even if they did, it would be over all over again a week later. Obama could drop dead tomorrow and still pick up enough votes in Oregon to go over the top in pledged delegates.

Sure he could but if Clinton gets the free media boon coming out of WV and narrows Oregon even slightly then all of a sudden people start tlaking about FL and MI and suddenly we have to wait until May 31st for things to be "decided." Agian its all over but the shouting. My point is that the shouting can and WILL continue to the detriment of the Democratic party. Not in terms of whether they will win the White House or not but rather in terms of not being able to have a uniform message to take into the 2nd Tier Senate and House races.

This election isn't about the 1st Tier races which the Dems will win regardless of whether Clinton drops out now or at the convention. This is about the 2nd tier races where Dems need to start spending now, where they need a uniform and consistent GOTV and organizational apparatus coming from the Presidential candidate. These are places which could determine how easily legislation gets passed in Obama's presidency. The Nebraska's, North Carolinas, even Mississippi. All of then could be winnable if the party gets on a single message now and puts the organziational apparatus from the primaries to work NOW. Those races have a big distance in red terriotry that needs to be conquered. Right now you've got 6 tier 1 races where the Dems can pick up a senate seat pretty much regardless (VA, AK, CO, MN, NH, NM). You then have the three I just mentioned plus Maine and Oregon, which are going to need quite a bit more work and effort. Obama and his organizaiton CAN'T truly start to influence those races until he has Clinton out of the race completely. If the Dems pick up those 6 seats (and Lieberman finally defects) then you've got a 55-45 split. If you pick up all 5 of those tier 2 races that's 60-40 and finally breaking the logjam.

Again I know, you know, and everyone knows (when they stop to think about it) that Clinton has no chance. What I am worried can happen and will happen is that the media narrative after a BIG WV win (30+ points) will give her enough steam to keep Obama from effectively transitioning out of the primary and into the general. He is trying to do that now but he can't until he has finally gotten her to shut up and that won't happen unless he can keep the media narrative on his side.

Meanwhile, I don't know if Obama could get the West Virgina margin down to 20 points. It took six weeks and millions upon millions of dollars to get his deficit in Pennsylvania down from 20 to 10. In West Virginia he has less time and the demographics are much worse. What's the advantage of campaigning there? You're really going to burn a week and millions of dollars to turn an enormous loss into a huge one?

PA also has several HIGHLY expensive media markets and represents a cost per voter reached that requires a massive investment. WV has fewer and MUCH less expensive media markets including the 159th, 190th, and 202nd largest markets. Simply put for Obama it would be relatively cheap to blast the airwaves. That and the most reliable numbers i've seen are Rasumussen which has shown him steady at -29 with 17% undecided. If he can just get the late deicders to break 2-1 for him (doable enough) then its down to -22, add three points of takeaway and then we are under 20% difference which would be the victory point. Moreover its very doable. If you look at the RCP averages in PA from 3/30-4/2 Obama took his margin from -16 to -6 and again in a more expensive media market.