Brexit and not very united kingdom politics II

[mr friendly guy]

The NHS has been under strain for a long time. When I was an intern in 2004, UK doctors visiting Australia would talk about how the NHS is struggling to keep up. Various recent UK documentaries available on youtube just reinforces that view. The staff do an amazing job under the circumstances. But the pressures make some want to work overseas, and I have seen a few UK doctors in Australia.

https://www.ft.com/content/38513e9a-a02 ... 36b35c3550
As the article notes, (it was a few years ago), Australia is quite popular among UK doctors. Better conditions, better pay etc.

I wonder how Brexit is going to affect the NHS.

[His Divine Shadow]

Ok it's on General Election will be called

[LaCroix]

The NHS is on the verge of collapse due to the strangle policy, and if Brexit happens, Trump already said the only way a trade deal will come true is when the NHS is up for sale. There is a huge lobby in the US for this - and since BOJO outright gave up British earnings in the EU investment fond with just light prodding, only to be able to present a deal to parliament so he does not look like he "failed", he's (and the pityful excuse for a trade negotiation deal the UK has right now, because no one bothered to train/hire new ones for "since Brexit started") probably going to fold like an accordion when US negotiators start pushing.


Even with Trump gone, unless someone with a socialist mindset like Sanders (maybe Warren) is going to take over, the thing about "social health care has to be privatized" will probably stay. Because nobody will give Britain a better deal than they had with the EU, already.

[Eternal_Freedom]

Overheard in work today:

"We should teach kids more about politics."
"Why would that work? We teach sex ed already and we have a really high teenage pregnancy rate. If they don't care who they're having kids with why would they care about voting?"

Can't really argue with that logic.

[mr friendly guy]

This came up in my searches for Brexit news. Not sure how reliable it is, but Brits can give me a better idea.

https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,chil ... _14613.htm

Chilling’ Brexit survey finds voters believe violence and protests ‘price worth paying’
Amajority of leave and remain voters in Scotland, England and Wales believe that violence towards MPs and violent protests in which people are badly injured are “likely to occur” if Brexit takes place, a new YouGov survey has found.

The poll found 60 per cent of Scottish leave voters and 53 per cent of Scottish remain voters believe violence towards MPs is a “price worth paying” for either leaving or remaining in the EU.

Further, a majority of remain voters across England, Scotland and Wales, think “protests in which members of the public are badly injured are a ‘price worth paying’ to stop Brexit and remain in the EU – 56 per cent in Scotland, 57 per cent in England and 57 per cent in Wales.

A larger majority of leave voters said they thought protests in which members of the public were badly injured were a “price worth paying” to achieve Brexit – 62 per cent in Scotland, 69 per cent in England and 70 per cent in Wales.

The YouGov survey of Scottish, English and Welsh voters, titled the Future of England, was commissioned by The University of Edinburgh and Cardiff University.

It also found two-thirds of Scots, or 61 per cent, believed that Brexit was likely to lead to a break-up of the UK, followed by 52 per cent in England, and 47 per cent in Wales.

Both sides said they were willing to see “substantial change to the union” to get their own way with Brexit.

“Remain voters are particularly likely to believe that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK (around three quarters in Scotland, England and Wales believe this) but similar proportions of leave voters believe staying in the EU will undermine faith in the union,” the survey found.

Survey co-director Professor Ailsa Henderson, from The University of Edinburgh, said the poll “confirms just how much the Brexit debate has polarised the electorates in Britain”.

“These findings show that polarisation is reshaping how we argue with one another, and what we argue about, but could reshape the union as well,” she said.

“Individuals might profess an attachment to the union, but Brexit has revealed most in Britain to be ambivalent unionists who now see it as expendable to get their own way on Brexit. Because this holds for both Leave and Remain voters, it confirms just how much the Brexit debate has polarised the electorates in Britain.”

Fellow co-director Professor Richard Wyn Jones said: “It’s not often that one finds oneself shaken by research findings, but in this case it’s hard to not be genuinely shocked - not only by the fact that so many think that violence is a likely consequence of Brexit, but that so many on either side of the Brexit divide seem to think that such events might be ‘worth it’ in order to secure their preferred outcome.”

“Given that we appear to be on the brink of another general election in which further polarisation could be a deliberate campaign strategy for some parties, these findings should give all of us pause for thought and underline the importance of responsible and measured debate,” he said.

Scottish Labour MSP Anas Sarwar said the results of the survey were “chilling”.

“It is horrifying and deeply upsetting to think that people believe violence against MPs is a ‘price worth paying’. Violence can never be justified, no matter what is at stake in our politics,” he warned.

“Amid rising prejudice and division, it is incumbent on us all to honour Jo Cox’s memory and focus not on the things that divide us, but on the things we have in common.”

[SpottedKitty]

This came up in my searches for Brexit news. Not sure how reliable it is, but Brits can give me a better idea.

Idiots.

[madd0ct0r]

Actual survey results can be downloaded from bottom of page here: https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/view/170 ... -the-union

[Juubi Karakuchi]

Some small cause for hope.

General election: Tories facing challenge from Brexit Party across the country after Boris Johnson rejects Nigel Farage’s pact offer

Prime minister warned that Brexit Party standing ‘in every single seat’ will do more damage to Tories than Labour

Benjamin Kentish
Political Correspondent @BenKentish

Boris Johnson’s hopes of victory at next month’s general election have been dealt a serious blow after Nigel Farage vowed to field Brexit Party candidates in every seat unless the prime minister ditches his EU withdrawal deal.

Senior Tories had hoped that Mr Farage would agree to stand aside in most constituencies to give the Tories a free run, but the Brexit Party leader insisted he would do so only in the unlikely scenario that Mr Johnson scrapped his “dreadful” deal.

And Mr Johnson swiftly rejected the Brexit Party leader’s offer of an alliance, telling Sky News: “I’ve ruled out a pact with everybody because I don’t think it’s sensible to do that. We’re proud of our beliefs, we’re proud of our one-nation Conservatism.”

Announcing his strategy for the 12 December poll amid significant speculation over his intentions, Mr Farage said he was planning to field candidates in “every single seat in England, Scotland and Wales”, unless Mr Johnson promised to take the UK out of the EU with only a slimmed-down free trade agreement.

With the prime minister dismissing proposals for a pact and the prospect of him dropping his deal virtually nil, Mr Farage is now all but certain to push ahead with a full national campaign in the coming weeks.

Experts said this was “not good news” for Mr Johnson and was likely to harm the Tories significantly more than Labour.

Some Conservatives have long feared that the Brexit Party could split the pro-Brexit vote in key Leave-backing constituencies where the Tories will need to do well if they are to have any hope of securing a majority.

While Mr Farage claimed that his party posed as much of a threat to Labour as it did to the Conservatives, polling experts said this was not the case.

Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University told The Independent: “It’s not good news for the Conservatives because it’s more likely that the Brexit Party will damage them than the Labour Party.”

He continued: “For every one voter who has moved from Labour to the Brexit Party, there are two that have moved from the Conservatives to the Brexit Party.

“The crucial question is what would people have done if the Brexit Party weren’t standing? It’s one of those counterfactual worlds where we don’t know the answer because it never existed, but it is highly unlikely that more people would have voted for the Labour Party than for the Conservatives.”

Professor Curtice said Mr Farage’s offer to Mr Johnson was evidence of the Brexit Party’s ability to damage the Conservatives’ electoral prospects, saying: “If Farage believes he’s going to damage Labour, why does he think that by saying to Boris Johnson ‘I’ll call off the troops”, that is going to appeal to Johnson? The argument doesn’t stand up.”

Mr Johnson insisted that Leave-backing voters can only be sure of getting Brexit if they elect a Conservative government, saying “the only way to get this thing done is to vote for us”.

He told ITV News: “If you vote for any other party, the risk is you’ll just get Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour Party, dither and delay, not just one referendum next year but two referendums.”

The prime minister also defended his “fantastic deal”, saying it “delivers everything that people wanted from the Brexit referendum”.

Mr Farage used his party’s campaign launch in Westminster earlier in the day to make a “”very big, generous offer” to Mr Johnson that he claimed would hand the Tories a “big stonking majority”.

He was speaking the day after Donald Trump claimed in an interview with Mr Farage for LBC that the Tories and Brexit Party working together would be an “unstoppable force”.

Mr Farage said the terms of his offer were that Mr Johnson adopt the “totally reasonable position” of giving up hopes of securing a comprehensive Brexit deal and instead seeking only a streamlined trade deal. This should be completed by 1 July next year or the UK should leave without any deal at all, he added.

He said: “If it was done, Boris Johnson would win a very big majority and on that manifesto we really could get Brexit done. In fact, to quote a friend of mind, we’d become an unstoppable force.”

This could be bad for Bojo, but actually his position on this issue is impossible. If he broke bread with Farage, he risked alienating moderate Tories (with the Lib Dems as an alternative); by fighting him, he risks the Brexit vote being split. The Tory party is slowly disintegrating.

[His Divine Shadow]

John Bercow: ‘I do not believe Jeremy Corbyn is anti-Semitic’:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVcWo-W60lU

[His Divine Shadow]

By the way, is it just me in this perception? But so far since the GE was called, to me it looks like Labour has gone from strength to strength, they keep nailing it. Meanwhile Boris and his cronies haven't managed to do anything yet that hasn't floundered, made them look bad or backfired and people resigning.

And likewise for the yellow tories, or as they are known now; "Jo Swinsons's Liberal Democrats", she has utterly gambled on making the election about her, which isn't the vote winner she thinks it is. And they've already made fools out of themselves with many dishonest tactics, such as a fake tactical voting website that says to vote libdem regardless of the actual situation. And making up incredibly misleading questions and posting dodgy graphs.

Man it's strange how things seem to turn on a dime is't it when the laws on election coverage come into force, suddenly Labour turns into the competent powerhouse and the others seem to be a bunch of doddering fools who cannot survive without a press that is friendly to the point of dishonesty... I wonder if this tactic has backfired, they've made their own side soft, while Labour has had to endure a hostile media for years. They aren't remotely ready for the playing field being leveled even a little. Without a media that can cover and lie for them they are exposed as newborns.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

By the way, is it just me in this perception? But so far since the GE was called, to me it looks like Labour has gone from strength to strength, they keep nailing it. Meanwhile Boris and his cronies haven't managed to do anything yet that hasn't floundered, made them look bad or backfired and people resigning.

And likewise for the yellow tories, or as they are known now; "Jo Swinsons's Liberal Democrats", she has utterly gambled on making the election about her, which isn't the vote winner she thinks it is. And they've already made fools out of themselves with many dishonest tactics, such as a fake tactical voting website that says to vote libdem regardless of the actual situation. And making up incredibly misleading questions and posting dodgy graphs.

Man it's strange how things seem to turn on a dime is't it when the laws on election coverage come into force, suddenly Labour turns into the competent powerhouse and the others seem to be a bunch of doddering fools who cannot survive without a press that is friendly to the point of dishonesty... I wonder if this tactic has backfired, they've made their own side soft, while Labour has had to endure a hostile media for years. They aren't remotely ready for the playing field being leveled even a little. Without a media that can cover and lie for them they are exposed as newborns.

You may be right. At the very least Labour isn't doing too badly, while the Tories having one disaster after another.

I'm not sold on Jo Swinson personally, but I suspect the Lib Dems will do well; if only because they were consistent and honest regarding Brexit; aka they're against it, always have been against it, and will do anything they can to stop it. Making that tactical voting deal with the Greens and Plaid Cymru was also a smart move, as it minimizes the threat of vote splitting.

An interesting point about the media. It may be that people are starting to see through the tabloids on this issue, or simply that their readership has fallen to a point where it doesn't have quite the same influence.

How this will turn out really depends on how many moderate Tories go over to the Lib Dems because they can't stand Bojo, and how badly the BXP splits the Hard Brexit vote. If it's big in both cases, then the Tories will take a real hammering, with the Lib Dems as the main beneficiary, though Labour could get some seats too. The SNP will likely clean up in Scotland regardless.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Pretty much any way you look at it we're headed for a hung parliament again, which would be no real change to the situation as it is currently.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

There's a silver lining to that. If Bojo fails to get a majority - however small - he'll quite likely be tossed out by his own party; even if they have to change the rules to do it, like they almost did with Theresa May. Most of them only backed him on the basis that he's their best chance to win an election. If he can't deliver a majority, then he can't deliver a Hard Brexit either. He goes from being an expensive luxury to an outright liability.

[madd0ct0r]

Farage has backtracked and said he is now only putting brexit party cabdidates against labour, not cons. 300 seats vs 600.

Someone is really really scared of a left labour coalition.

[madd0ct0r]

Someone is really really scared of a left labour coalition.

breaking news - large scale cyber attack on labour's digital platforms. more as it comes through.

[His Divine Shadow]

The enemies of mankind and the planet are getting desperate.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

Farage's little ploy doesn't seem to be going well for him. Bojo has made no apparent concessions,and has even called upon Farage to withdraw from even more constituencies. The Daily Mail has started a 'Stand Down Nigel' campaign to the same effect.

Also, his followers are getting rather angry. (https://www.indy100.com/article/brexit- ... on-9199401)

That said, the deadline for nominations is 4pm on Thursday. If this was just a ploy, then Farage has until then to change his mind and reinstate the nominations.

[SpottedKitty]

The SNP will likely clean up in Scotland regardless.

Again...?

People up here laughed at the Spitting Image sketch of Thatcher being unable to recognise Scotland on a map until someone reminded her it was "the testing area" because of the amount of percieved truth wrapped around it.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

The SNP will likely clean up in Scotland regardless.

Again...?

People up here laughed at the Spitting Image sketch of Thatcher being unable to recognise Scotland on a map until someone reminded her it was "the testing area" because of the amount of percieved truth wrapped around it.

In this specific case, the resignation of Ruth Davidson has a lot to do with it. She was the Scottish Tory party's last hope; precisely because she was the complete opposite of the Tory stereotype. Now all that remains is that stereotype, but with its redeeming features removed. I'd be more than a little surprised if the Tories keep any seats in Scotland. Labour might stand a chance, depending on how much of an effort Corbyn makes.

[mr friendly guy]

In other news, Brexit caused Tesla to set up a factory in Germany rather than the UK. Kind of makes sense since Europe is a bigger market, and who knows what kind of barriers would be up between the UK and the EU when Brexit finally happens.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

In other news, Brexit caused Tesla to set up a factory in Germany rather than the UK. Kind of makes sense since Europe is a bigger market, and who knows what kind of barriers would be up between the UK and the EU when Brexit finally happens.

This was foreseen. It was dismissed as Project Fear. Nevertheless it is happening. Expect similar news if Brexit continues; including the closure of existing factories.

A further update. Corbyn has declared that he will not allow a Scottish Independence Referendum, though there are three versions of this story; either not in the 'formative years' of a Labour government, not before 2021, or not in the first term. Either way this will not play well in Scotland, and makes a Labour-SNP coalition unlikely. That said, in Corbyn's defence, being seen as too cosy with the SNP might not have played well in some parts of England.

As things currently stand, we're still looking at a hung parliament; with Tories as biggest, followed closely by Labour, with expanded SNP and Lib-Dems as kingmakers. All seats are up for grabs, so the Tories need 28 seats to gain a working majority of 1 seat. If they lose their 13 Scottish seats to the SNP, then that number rises to 41. Between the flooding and reports of an overstretched NHS in all the papers, I don't see the Tories getting those seats in the north, at least.

[Zaune]

Considering that Labour are campaigning largely on a platform of fixing everything the Scots are (justly) pissed off about to the point of wanting another independence referendum, they might not do that badly. Nor do I think the SNP are so unreasonable that "no second Indyref until we've had a chance to prove we're better than the Tories" as a condition is a complete deal-breaker.

[Bedlam]

Considering that Labour are campaigning largely on a platform of fixing everything the Scots are (justly) pissed off about to the point of wanting another independence referendum, they might not do that badly. Nor do I think the SNP are so unreasonable that "no second Indyref until we've had a chance to prove we're better than the Tories" as a condition is a complete deal-breaker.

As someone who lives in Scotland I personally fear that the SNP will be that unreasonable. Their answer to absolutely everything is become independent and they hardly waited a week after the majority of Scotland voted to stay in the UK before campaigning for a new referendum. I wouldn't be all that surprised if they did vote for a hard Britexit the grounds that it would make it more likely for them to win any future referendum.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Well the ITV broadcast was interesting, the head-to-head between Johnson and Corbyn went ahead with neither one emerging a winner, though Corbyn did himself no favours by sitting on the leave/remain fence. This was followed by interviews with minor party leaders, including Lib Dems, SNP, Greens and Brexit, which meant having to listen to Farage spout his usual brand of bullshit. The only thing of note was that his lot are going after Labour seats instead of Conservative ones. Time will tell whether that pays off, though I'm sticking with Lib Dem as the only serious remain party.

[His Divine Shadow]

From what I am reading Corbyn didn't do his best performance, he avoided a proper answer on brexit (i.e. it doesn't matter what I think, you will decide what happens in the referendum would have been better), and the moderator wasn't very good, but by contrast Johnson just rolled around in his own shit, typical Johnson style.

https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/11 ... 1252656130

Abraham Lincoln: “Four score and-“
Julie Etchingham: “Thank you very much, thank you, THANK YOU, we’re moving on...”