Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[Ralin]

That requires either invading Russia or some sort of internal power shift leading to people being handed over for trial.

Put most of the Russian Upper levels of government and military on trial 'in Absentia', and then put out international arrest warrants for them anyway.

NATO nations that have such a mechanism are welcome to try that. The US cannot, because the concept of trial in absentia does not exist in US law and indeed would violate the constitution (sixth and fourteenth amendments). Not that the US government(s) haven't occasionally used the constitution as toilet paper but we're supposed to be the law-abiding good guys here.

More to the point, Solauren is being dumb by tacking an unnecessary 'trial in Absentia!' onto the otherwise normal 'put out a warrant to arrest them' thing.

[Gandalf]

The easy solution to that is to do it the same way as last time - establish an international tribunal (including US participation, among others) with explicit authority to try individuals in absentia.

The US would be unlikely to sign on to such a thing, as it would place their leaders at risk next time they do something like Iraq. Same for pretty much any other country that does such things.

[Ralin]

The easy solution to that is to do it the same way as last time - establish an international tribunal (including US participation, among others) with explicit authority to try individuals in absentia.

The US would be unlikely to sign on to such a thing, as it would place their leaders at risk next time they do something like Iraq. Same for pretty much any other country that does such things.

Not if it was set up for one specific case (i.e., fuck Russia for the Ukraine invasion).

Though again, this is pointless because the 'trial in absentia' part is silly and unnecessary.

[Captain Seafort]

The US would be unlikely to sign on to such a thing, as it would place their leaders at risk next time they do something like Iraq. Same for pretty much any other country that does such things.

Not if it was set up for one specific case (i.e., fuck Russia for the Ukraine invasion).

Though again, this is pointless because the 'trial in absentia' part is silly and unnecessary.

Trial in absentia would be an essential element if some or all of the defendants are absent for whatever reason - again, just like last time.

[Ralin]

Trial in absentia would be an essential element if some or all of the defendants are absent for whatever reason - again, just like last time.

I am not seeing an essential need here. If some defendants are absent they should have separate trials when it is possible to do so. If all of them are absent the trial should be held after they are arrested. As is commonly done in other contexts.

[Captain Seafort]

I am not seeing an essential need here. If some defendants are absent they should have separate trials when it is possible to do so. If all of them are absent the trial should be held after they are arrested. As is commonly done in other contexts.

An international tribunal isn't an "other context" - it's formed for a limited period of time to deal with a limited number and type of offences. That means that if the defendants fail to turn up, they must be tried in absentia, in order that their offences can dealt with by the tribunal (i.e. they don't get off scott free because the tribunal has closed by the time they're caught). This has solid precedent in the trial of Martin Bormann at Nuremberg - ample announcements were made in press and radio to ensure that he would have been aware that he would be tried, and therefore giving him the option to appear and defend himself. He failed to do so (mainly due to being dead) and was therefore tried and convicted in absentia. Exactly the same process can be followed for Putin and his gang.

[Ralin]

Suppose that makes some sense.

[LadyTevar]

I am not seeing an essential need here. If some defendants are absent they should have separate trials when it is possible to do so. If all of them are absent the trial should be held after they are arrested. As is commonly done in other contexts.

An international tribunal isn't an "other context" - it's formed for a limited period of time to deal with a limited number and type of offences. That means that if the defendants fail to turn up, they must be tried in absentia, in order that their offences can dealt with by the tribunal (i.e. they don't get off scott free because the tribunal has closed by the time they're caught). This has solid precedent in the trial of Martin Bormann at Nuremberg - ample announcements were made in press and radio to ensure that he would have been aware that he would be tried, and therefore giving him the option to appear and defend himself. He failed to do so (mainly due to being dead) and was therefore tried and convicted in absentia. Exactly the same process can be followed for Putin and his gang.

I thought I remembered hearing one of the trials was "in absentia". I couldn't remember who or why.

[Solauren]

More to the point, Solauren is being dumb by tacking an unnecessary 'trial in Absentia!' onto the otherwise normal 'put out a warrant to arrest them' thing.

It's to get around countries going 'they haven't been convicted'.

There is a difference between someone going in that has a warrant out to stand trial, to harboring a convicted felon.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Ukrainians who fled to Georgia reveal details of Russia’s ‘filtration camps’
Seems Putin is emulating Stalin, deporting people he doesn't like.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

Anyway, bigger point here is I don't see any reason to assume either side here is operating on MAD as a principle. There are good reasons to think the exact opposite, such as the fact that Biden (and the rest of NATO) doesn't consider the invasion of Ukraine sufficiently outrageous to send actual troops to help in its defense. If a country isn't willing to engage in conventional warfare directly against Russia when they don't have it seems like they'd be similarly reluctant to engage in nuclear war when, again, they don't really have to.

No, because Biden knows that if NATO starts sending troops to Ukraine, they'll evaporate under the mushroom clouds of Russian tactical nukes.

Ukraine is still considered Russian land by Russia and its leaders, and Russian nuclear doctrine is also clear on what happens when said land is invaded.

Do the math.

[Ralin]

No, because Biden knows that if NATO starts sending troops to Ukraine, they'll evaporate under the mushroom clouds of Russian tactical nukes.

Pretty sure he doesn't know any such thing. Pretty sure there are good reasons to think that wouldn't happen.

Ukraine is still considered Russian land by Russia and its leaders, and Russian nuclear doctrine is also clear on what happens when said land is invaded.

Okay, so I asked a friend of mine who does military history awhile back about the whole 'escalate to deescalate' thing and he told me the Russian government has never officially stated said doctrine in what is likely a deliberate decision to maintain strategic ambiguity. So I'm going to ask you to give proof that 'Russian nuclear doctrine' demands that any foreign troops in Ukraine being nuked.

Do the math.

Can you do math? Because you mostly seem to post wild hysterical crap based on half-understood doomer theories that don't have a lot of basis in reality.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

More like NATO troops attacking Russian ones being a de-facto declaration of war on Russia, in which case nukes from both sides will be flying in short order.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

Pretty sure he doesn't know any such thing. Pretty sure there are good reasons to think that wouldn't happen.

You're dealing with the nation-state equivalent of a paranoid gun nut with a serious case of Old World Blues... i.e. the most irrational of irrational.

Okay, so I asked a friend of mine who does military history awhile back about the whole 'escalate to deescalate' thing and he told me the Russian government has never officially stated said doctrine in what is likely a deliberate decision to maintain strategic ambiguity. So I'm going to ask you to give proof that 'Russian nuclear doctrine' demands that any foreign troops in Ukraine being nuked.

It was a long while ago so I'll have to dig it out if it hasn't been lost to the ether already...

Can you do math? Because you mostly seem to post wild hysterical crap based on half-understood doomer theories that don't have a lot of basis in reality.

It really isn't doomer crap.

More like NATO troops attacking Russian ones being a de-facto declaration of war on Russia, in which case nukes from both sides will be flying in short order.

Partially this too.

[wautd]

Ukrainians who fled to Georgia reveal details of Russia’s ‘filtration camps’
Seems Putin is emulating Stalin, deporting people he doesn't like.

Makes Nazi Russia's propaganda of showing so called Ukrainian citizens saying they are "happy" to be finally "liberated" all the more perverse

[LadyTevar]

Ukrainians who fled to Georgia reveal details of Russia’s ‘filtration camps’
Seems Putin is emulating Stalin, deporting people he doesn't like.

Makes Nazi Russia's propaganda of showing so called Ukrainian citizens saying they are "happy" to be finally "liberated" all the more perverse

And all the more War Crimes, because you do NOT treat refugee civilians like that! Did they really think they could get away with it in this day and age? Did they think no one would speak out about it?

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

Ukrainians who fled to Georgia reveal details of Russia’s ‘filtration camps’
Seems Putin is emulating Stalin, deporting people he doesn't like.

Makes Nazi Russia's propaganda of showing so called Ukrainian citizens saying they are "happy" to be finally "liberated" all the more perverse

And all the more War Crimes, because you do NOT treat refugee civilians like that! Did they really think they could get away with it in this day and age? Did they think no one would speak out about it?

In an age of misinformation and memetic warfare? Yes, I'm afraid. While the truth has a tendency to come out, the reality is that the truth can be made irrelevant in far more circumstances than one would believe, doubly so when you figure in that most humans are emotional creatures.

[Ralin]

You're dealing with the nation-state equivalent of a paranoid gun nut with a serious case of Old World Blues... i.e. the most irrational of irrational.

Uh...huh.

It was a long while ago so I'll have to dig it out if it hasn't been lost to the ether already...

DR 5. You've been going on about the 'NATO troops on Russian clay will automatically trigger nuclear retaliation' thing for months now. Put up or shut up.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

DR 5. You've been going on about the 'NATO troops on Russian clay will automatically trigger nuclear retaliation' thing for months now. Put up or shut up.

I'm still trying to find the source, but my google-fu is pretty bad. Though, I've been finding papers that discuss the language of the 2020 declaration of Russia's nuclear forces which support what I've been saying.

[Zaune]

Frankly, NATO troops crossing the border into Russia or even just exchanging fire near the Ukranian/Polish border doesn't need to lead to immediate nuclear retaliation to end in utter disaster, because if that comes to pass then any chance of talking Putin into making a deal is up in smoke and this war's going to grind on until his generals give him the boot.

[Ralin]

Frankly, NATO troops crossing the border into Russia or even just exchanging fire near the Ukranian/Polish border doesn't need to lead to immediate nuclear retaliation to end in utter disaster, because if that comes to pass then any chance of talking Putin into making a deal is up in smoke and this war's going to grind on until his generals give him the boot.

Exactly what sort of deal or negotiated peace is potentially on the table that doesn't boil down to "Russia gets part of Ukraine" and that the Ukrainian government and public would accept, even assuming anyone trusted Putin to keep it?

I'm still trying to find the source, but my google-fu is pretty bad. Though, I've been finding papers that discuss the language of the 2020 declaration of Russia's nuclear forces which support what I've been saying.

The Russian government saying that they would use nuclear weapons against a threat to the existence of the Russian state isn't proof that the Russian government is sure to use nuclear weapons against any foreign military that directly assists a third country that the Russian government has decided should belong to Russia. I'd describe it as more of a "Duh, no shit."

[Zaune]

Exactly what sort of deal or negotiated peace is potentially on the table that doesn't boil down to "Russia gets part of Ukraine" and that the Ukrainian government and public would accept, even assuming anyone trusted Putin to keep it?

Some sort of token increase in regional autonomy for the majority Russian-speaking provinces, along with some legal protection for Russian as a minority language, plus a bilateral free trade agreement that gives Russia parity of market access should the Ukrainian government petition for EU membership? That would be about as good an ending as we could hope for: The Ukrainians get to keep all their territory, Russia doesn't have to worry about a spike in food prices because their biggest source of grain imports is selling tariff-free to the EU instead and the rest of the world doesn't have to deal with Russia imploding into civil war.

If, as you note, Putin keeps his word. I think he'd be a fool not to take a deal like that if it were offered, because it'd let him come out of this quagmire with some sort of tangible positive result, but then he was a fool to get Russia into this mess in the first place so it could go either way.

[Ralin]

Some sort of token increase in regional autonomy for the majority Russian-speaking provinces, along with some legal protection for Russian as a minority language, plus a bilateral free trade agreement that gives Russia parity of market access should the Ukrainian government petition for EU membership? That would be about as good an ending as we could hope for: The Ukrainians get to keep all their territory, Russia doesn't have to worry about a spike in food prices because their biggest source of grain imports is selling tariff-free to the EU instead and the rest of the world doesn't have to deal with Russia imploding into civil war.

If, as you note, Putin keeps his word. I think he'd be a fool not to take a deal like that if it were offered, because it'd let him come out of this quagmire with some sort of tangible positive result, but then he was a fool to get Russia into this mess in the first place so it could go either way.

Hey, you know what seems like it might help make accepting something like that seem preferrable to continuing the war from the Russian government's perspective? NATO troops and planes in Ukraine helping the Ukranian military fight the Russian troops attempting to conquer the place. Way more room to negotiate when the Ukranian side is winning then when they're very slowly losing.

I'm not convinced that the risk of Russia setting the precedent that they can get away with nuking another country a little is worse than setting the precedent that Russia (and therefore other nuclear states) can decide that other countries aren't allowed to come to the aid of countries against Russia because Russia has nukes. Otherwise, what's stopping them from declaring that it's now Russian policy that they will consider the use of nuclear weapons a valid option in dealing with internal rebellions and insurgents, such as the one currently going on in Russia's Ukraine provinces?

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Macron, Scholz and Draghi pledge arms and EU path for Ukraine in Kyiv visit.

The leaders of the European Union's three largest economies visited Ukraine on Thursday, vowing to back Kyiv’s bid to become an official candidate to join the bloc.

French president Emmanuel Macron, German chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian premier Mario Draghi arrived in Kyiv to the sound of air-raid sirens as they made the highest-profile show of collective European support for Ukraine since Russia invaded in February.

President Klaus Iohannis of Romania - which borders Ukraine and has been a key destination for Ukrainian refugees - also made the journey, albeit on a separate train.

Alongside a promise to support Ukraine's EU candidacy, Mr Macron said it would give Ukraine six more powerful truck-mounted artillery guns, the latest in a new round of Western arms pledges for Ukraine as the war grinds on in the eastern Donbas region.

The leaders “are doing everything so that Ukraine alone can decide its fate,” Mr Macron said at a news conference.

Speaking to ITV News, Mr Macron insisted France did not misjudge Moscow's invasion and rejected claims that many Ukrainians think he and other European leaders should have visited the country sooner.

"I'm sorry but I'm not sure that they [Ukrainians] are exactly thinking that," he said. "They are fighting hard and we have a lot of admiration and respect for them.

"And I was here beginning of February. And I think it was very useful to be here at that time and in Moscow."

After getting off the train in Kyiv, Mr Macron earlier said the group would visit sites where attacks have occurred and speak to Ukrainian officials about “both the present and the future” of the country.

“It is an important moment,” he said. "It is a message of European unity toward Ukrainians.”

Mr Scholz said the leaders are seeking to show solidarity but also their commitment to keeping up their financial and humanitarian help for Ukraine, and their supply of weapons, he was quoted as saying by German news agency dpa.

He added that this support would continue “for as long as is necessary for Ukraine’s fight for independence,” dpa reported.

Mr Scholz said he believes sanctions against Russia are so significant they could lead to Moscow withdrawing troops.

The visit carries heavy symbolic weight given that the three Western European powers have often faced criticism for not providing Ukraine with the scale of weaponry that Mr Zelenskyy has been begging them for, and for their willingness to keep speaking to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Many leaders and people in the Baltic and Central European nations, which were controlled by Moscow during the Cold War, believe that Mr Putin only understands force, and have viewed the efforts by Mr Macron and others to keep speaking to Mr Putin following his invasion as unacceptable.

Mr Macron has been heavily involved in diplomatic efforts to push for a cease-fire in Ukraine that would allow future peace negotiations.

He has frequent discussions with Mr Zelenskyy and has spoken on the phone several times with Mr Putin since he launched the invasion in late February.

Mr Scholz had long resisted travelling to Kyiv, saying he didn’t want to “join the queue of people who do a quick in-out for a photo opportunity.” Instead, he said a trip should focus on doing “concrete things".

Hopes were high among Ukrainians that the visit could mark a turning point by opening the way to significant new arms supplies.

The visit comes as EU leaders prepare to make a decision June 23 to 24 on Ukraine's request to become a candidate for EU membership, and ahead of an important NATO summit June 29-30 in Madrid.

On Tuesday, during a trip to Ukraine’s neighbours Romania and Moldova, Mr Macron said a “message of support” must be sent to Ukraine before EU heads of state and government “have to make important decisions” at their Brussels meeting.

On Thursday, NATO defence ministers are meeting in Brussels to weigh more military aid for Ukraine.

It comes after the US and Germany announced more aid, as America and its allies provide longer-range weapons they say can make a difference in a fight where Ukrainian forces are outnumbered and outgunned by their Russian invaders.

[Broomstick]

And all the more War Crimes, because you do NOT treat refugee civilians like that! Did they really think they could get away with it in this day and age?

Yes, yes they do.

Did they think no one would speak out about it?

They think the speaking out won't matter.