Democratic Convention Comment Thread

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Post by Broomstick »

Aratech wrote:
Crossroads Inc. wrote:
ray245 wrote:Looking at the other boards and juding at their view for the US elections...I am REALLY afriad that McCain can win...
I am too... At this very moment, I am positive millions of women across america are going "I was going to vote for Obama... But now Im going to vote for McCain! HEhas a women on HIS ticket!"

Because, you can NOT underestimate Americnas stupidity.
It would seem as though many a woman can be just as bullheaded and shortsighted as the men here.

Yes, ladies, let's have four more years of a crashing economy, quagmire in Iraq, and the world snubbing us. But it'll be okay, cause we'll have a woman!1!* next to the oval office.
McCain chose a woman? Brilliant strategy. Really. On several levels.

However, I will remind everyone that plenty of white women democrats chose a black man over a white woman - while some will vote for McCain because of Palin, don't expect to see a mass exodus. We've had a female VP candidate before, and that year her party lost the election.

I also expect a lot of black woman democrats who voted for Hillary will switch to Obama before they switch to Republican anything.
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Post by General Zod »

Broomstick wrote: McCain chose a woman? Brilliant strategy. Really. On several levels.

However, I will remind everyone that plenty of white women democrats chose a black man over a white woman - while some will vote for McCain because of Palin, don't expect to see a mass exodus. We've had a female VP candidate before, and that year her party lost the election.

I also expect a lot of black woman democrats who voted for Hillary will switch to Obama before they switch to Republican anything.
It would have been a brilliant strategy, had he chosen someone who was far more visible that actually shored up McCain's weaknesses. As it stands I don't see what picking Palin over several other more influential or experienced female candidates brings as a bonus besides ovaries and maybe being pro-life.
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Post by Admiral Valdemar »

You know, it's great how Obama is quite a guy to be running for POTUS (and let's be clear, he could, as Frankie Boyle said, say he killed a hobo and it made him horny and still have a better lead over McCain) and all, I just find the whole US political system hilariously saccharine and camp in a way only Americans can make it.

There are B-movies out there with political campaigns in I can stomach more than this.
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Post by Broomstick »

General Zod wrote:
Broomstick wrote: McCain chose a woman? Brilliant strategy. Really. On several levels.

However, I will remind everyone that plenty of white women democrats chose a black man over a white woman - while some will vote for McCain because of Palin, don't expect to see a mass exodus. We've had a female VP candidate before, and that year her party lost the election.

I also expect a lot of black woman democrats who voted for Hillary will switch to Obama before they switch to Republican anything.
It would have been a brilliant strategy, had he chosen someone who was far more visible that actually shored up McCain's weaknesses. As it stands I don't see what picking Palin over several other more influential or experienced female candidates brings as a bonus besides ovaries and maybe being pro-life.
Ovaries and pro-life were obviously big factors here.

Let me clarify that while I think the strategy is brilliant the execution of it is poor. Palin is apparently under some sort of corruption investigation. Were there no female Republicans of note without such a taint? If the Democrats are smart they will exploit that.
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Post by RedImperator »

General Zod wrote:
Broomstick wrote: McCain chose a woman? Brilliant strategy. Really. On several levels.

However, I will remind everyone that plenty of white women democrats chose a black man over a white woman - while some will vote for McCain because of Palin, don't expect to see a mass exodus. We've had a female VP candidate before, and that year her party lost the election.

I also expect a lot of black woman democrats who voted for Hillary will switch to Obama before they switch to Republican anything.
It would have been a brilliant strategy, had he chosen someone who was far more visible that actually shored up McCain's weaknesses. As it stands I don't see what picking Palin over several other more influential or experienced female candidates brings as a bonus besides ovaries and maybe being pro-life.
Don't forget the ethics investigation hanging over her head. As near as I can tell, the only thing Palin brings that, say, Kay Bailey Hutchinson or Elizabeth Dole doesn't is 1) she's pro-life, 2) she's hawt, and 3) she rides a Harley. Oh, and McCain has definitely locked up Alaska's three electoral votes. Hooray. This comes off more like pandering than a thoughtfully considered choice.
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Post by General Zod »

Broomstick wrote: Let me clarify that while I think the strategy is brilliant the execution of it is poor. Palin is apparently under some sort of corruption investigation. Were there no female Republicans of note without such a taint? If the Democrats are smart they will exploit that.
If the Dems got Hillary to go on the offensive against McSame's running mate, they'd be able to point out her lack of experience, McSame's hypocrisy and deflect charges of being sexist all in one shot.
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Post by Mr Bean »

Are there any large pictures of Obama's speech and the crowd? I feel the need for a new background.

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Post by Broomstick »

I believe that several posts ago I said some extremely flattering things about Mr. Obama. Let me back up some of those statements:

He's smart:
Graduated with a doctorate in law, magna cum laude, from Harvard in 1991. Since daddy was a black man from Kenya he clearly didn't get any breaks for being a child of alumni or wealth, he did the work and did it on his own.


Able to work with The Establishment (Outsider able to work on the inside):

1990, first American of African descent chosen as President of the Harvard Law Review. I probably don't need to remind folks that Harvard is Ivy League, part of the US high society/wealth/influence establishment and in many ways quite conservative.


What he's done for his constiuents (divided up roughly into various periods of office holding):
1985-1988, South Side of Chicago
* Set up job training programs
* Set up a college prep tutoring program
* Organized a tenants' right organization for Altgeld Gardens public housing
* Campaigned to remove asbestos from Altgeld Gardens, which removed that hazard from the homes of over 3,000 people

1992 - organized a program that registered 150,000 new voters in the state of Illinois

1993 - joined a law firm, Davis, Miner, Barnhill & Galland, specializing in civil rights and neighborhood economic development

1997-2004, State legislature - legislation supported:
* increased tax credits for low income workers
* welfare reform
* increased subsidies for child care
* payday loan regulation reform
* predatory mortgage lending regulations aimed at averting home foreclosures (note the date - he foresaw the coming crash during the bubble when real estate was "bulletproof")
* monitor racial profiling by requiring police to record the race of drivers they detained
* mandate videotaping of homicide interrogation (in Chicago there had long been accusations of torture to coerce confessions - you can see where this sort of measure was signficant)
* death penalty reform

2004 to present, US Senate (won with 70% of the vote, by the way) legislative activities:
* Energy Policy Act of 2005
* Secure America and Orderly Immigration Act, which did not pass into law
* Secure Fence Act of 2006 - personally, I'm not fond of this one but have included it because it is part of his record, and like I said, I don't agree with everything he says or does.
* "Lugar-Obama", an extension of the Lugar -Nunn Cooperative Threat Reduction to conventional weapons.
* Federal Funding Accountability and Transparency Act of 2006, also known as "Coburn-Obama". The website that came out of it is here: USAspending.gov
* sponsored legislation requiring nuclear plant owners to notify state and local authorities of radioactive leaks.
* Democratic Republic of the Congo Relief, Security, and Democracy Promotion Act - text of DRCRSDP ACT, signed into law December 2006
* Honest Leadership and Open Government Act
* Deceptive Pracices and Voter Intimidation Prevention Act
* Iraq War De-Escalation Act of 2007
* sponsored an amendment to the Defense Authorization Act adding safeguards for personality disorder military discharges
* sponsored amendment to SCHIP providing one year of job protection for family members caring for soldiers with combat-related injuries

Um... keep in mind he's done all this during the first third of his senate term, while running for president. I don't think he gets much sleep.

Service on US senate committees:
* Foreign Relations
* Environment and Public Works
* Veteran's Affairs
* Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions
* Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs
* Chair of subcommittee of European Affairs

Here is a link to Obama's stance on many issues.
Last edited by Broomstick on 2008-08-29 02:24pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by ray245 »

Fingolfin_Noldor wrote:
ray245 wrote:Looking at the other boards and juding at their view for the US elections...I am REALLY afriad that McCain can win...

If McCain win, he will just drag the rest of the world down with him.
If you think the average Singaporean knows anything about what goes on outside their small little pond, you are sadly, nay, stupidly mistaken.
Hell...even the so called liberals aren't any better.

I mean if you look beyond the fact that the liberals here are calling for a stronger opposition, and more freedom of speech blah blah blah.

Alot of their stand is JUST like the Republicians.

And they are the so called opposition supporters.

I'm very annoyed with members on both side of the political spectrum.
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Post by Coyote »

Mr Bean wrote:Are there any large pictures of Obama's speech and the crowd? I feel the need for a new background.
Google Images will probably have some.
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Post by Terralthra »

He also referenced Lorraine Hainsberry/Langston Hughes, in the same closing paragraphs.
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Post by Mr Bean »

Coyote wrote:
Mr Bean wrote:Are there any large pictures of Obama's speech and the crowd? I feel the need for a new background.
Google Images will probably have some.
Nope, Google Images is a bust since I can't filter by date(Least I don't think I can) meaning I get 500000000 images from his OTHER speeches in front of giant crowds in other stadiums(He's done several)

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Post by Noble Ire »

Mr Bean wrote:
Coyote wrote:
Mr Bean wrote:Are there any large pictures of Obama's speech and the crowd? I feel the need for a new background.
Google Images will probably have some.
Nope, Google Images is a bust since I can't filter by date(Least I don't think I can) meaning I get 500000000 images from his OTHER speeches in front of giant crowds in other stadiums(He's done several)

Is this too small?

I tried searching for "Obama Speech Denver".
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Post by General Zod »

Mr Bean wrote:
Coyote wrote:
Mr Bean wrote:Are there any large pictures of Obama's speech and the crowd? I feel the need for a new background.
Google Images will probably have some.
Nope, Google Images is a bust since I can't filter by date(Least I don't think I can) meaning I get 500000000 images from his OTHER speeches in front of giant crowds in other stadiums(He's done several)
Here ya go.
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Post by Mr Bean »

General Zod wrote:
Mr Bean wrote:
Coyote wrote: Google Images will probably have some.
Nope, Google Images is a bust since I can't filter by date(Least I don't think I can) meaning I get 500000000 images from his OTHER speeches in front of giant crowds in other stadiums(He's done several)
Here ya go.
Kind of hard to make a background out of a flash presentation, Photo 8 or 11 or 15 or 17 or 45 are all perfect for a wallpaper, but I can't get the raw images of any.

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Post by General Zod »

Mr Bean wrote: Kind of hard to make a background out of a flash presentation, Photo 8 or 11 or 15 or 17 or 45 are all perfect for a wallpaper, but I can't get the raw images of any.
Screenshot, paste into editor, crop, save as JPG. :P
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Post by TC Pilot »

Broomstick wrote:2004 to present, US Senate (won with 70% of the vote, by the way)
Now, that's a bit misleading, considering he essentially ran unopposed after Jack Ryan dropped out of the race.
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Post by Guardsman Bass »

TC Pilot wrote:
Broomstick wrote:2004 to present, US Senate (won with 70% of the vote, by the way)
Now, that's a bit misleading, considering he essentially ran unopposed after Jack Ryan dropped out of the race.
His major opponent after that was Alan Keyes (yes, THAT Alan Keyes). I doubt it was exactly a challenging battle.
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Post by Guardsman Bass »

I don't really want to raz him for winning, though. It's not his fault that Ryan got knocked out, and he already lived in the area; it's not as if he went trolling across the United States for a winnable Senate seat.
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Post by Broomstick »

The Republicans assumed a black "newcomer" couldn't be elected to that district, and thought they could throw anyone in there and win.
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Post by TithonusSyndrome »

Polling results suggest Obama's DNC speech has given him a lead:
Barack Obama has poll lead after Denver speech

Barack Obama's speech won acclaim but the poll "bounce" is the least he could have expected.


By Alex Spillius in Denver
Last Updated: 7:45PM BST 29 Aug 2008

Oprah Winfrey cried so hard her false eyelashes fell off, while David Gergen, a normally restrained ex-White House counsellor, described it as "less a speech than a symphony".

Senator Barack Obama's nomination acceptance address on Thursday night won acclaim amid emotional scenes, but more importantly the Democratic convention as a whole has given him a eight-point boost in the polls, after weeks of trundling alongside his Republican rival, Senator John McCain.

However, given that the Obama boost comes after high-profile speeches by both Bill and Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama, Senator Ted Kennedy and an array of other party big shots, that was the minimum effect his campaign would have been hoping for.

As Obama and his running mate Senator Joe Biden set off on a four-day tour of battleground states on Friday, there were just 66 days to go before polling day after 19 months of campaigning.

Democratic strategists said Mr Obama needed to press on with the significant departures from his previous messages that were evident in the address in Denver. In the speech Mr Obama sharply criticised Mr McCain and laid out detailed proposals to improve the economy.

"A lot of people were surprised not by the delivery and the inspirational side but the fact that he took it right to McCain," said Peter Fenn, veteran campaign adviser. "You are going to see very aggressive campaigning in the coming days. Obama has to show there are clear differences between the two candidates and ask where is McCain's health plan? Where is his change in economic policy and foreign policy?"

During his speech Mr Obama said: "Let me spell out exactly what that change would mean if I am President", and proceeded to reel off a rather dry list of tax initiatives, including cutting taxes for the middle classes and ending "tax breaks to corporations that ship jobs overseas".

This was the sort of nitty-gritty that has often been lacking from his speeches on the campaign trail, where he has not convinced voters of his ability to improve their lives.

Mr Obama closed with a homily to Martin Luther King, who 45 years earlier to the day delivered his famous "I have a Dream" speech, and an appeal to America to continue its journey towards equality. He made only one reference to being the first black nominee of either major party. "I realise that I am not the likeliest candidate for this office. I don't fit the typical pedigree," he said.

For all the razzle dazzle however, Mr Obama still needs to convince white, blue collar voters in swing states that mostly supported Senator Hillary Clinton in the primary.

That is why he and Mr Biden headed straight for Pennsylvania last night, and will continue on to Ohio and Michigan during the next three days.

Dan Gerstein, who worked on Al Gore's 2000 campaign, said: "I think we will get to a tipping point at some stage in the next two months where swing voters will put their trust in him."
Emphasis mine. McCain is the first to admit that speechgiving isn't his strong point and the reaction to Palin could yet go either way, but hopefully this lead is here to stay.
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Post by Duckie »

Real Clear Politics is the first site I use for the polls.

Obama gained between a +4 and +8 boost from the convention, before his speech. That's probably why the Republicans were in such a hurry to check his time in the media's eye with their Vice Presidential pick.

RCP, which bases its scores by taking the average of all polls on a national (for popular) and state-by-state (for electoral) gives Obama as jumping from about tie to +1% up to about +4% popular vote (aka 54% 46%).

Statewise, Obama has no revision due to state polls not being really done when the conventions will invalidate them, but he is predicted by RCP as such for before-convention: With Tossup States Without tossups- less accurate but a better snapshot of opinion

==========

The other site is my favorite- 538 is less neutral- it's run by an Obama supporter, but he doesn't play the numbers to support Obama, he just has a bias in his reporting of events.

Note that below, Five Thirty Eight hasn't updated any national or state polls since Biden's speech or before, let alone Obama's, so there's almost 0 bounce indicated. It'll be interesting to watch.

Five Thirty Eight

First, notice the gradient coloured map of mccain and obama win probabilities. Look to the left for the expected electoral votes. There's a probability plot of electoral votes- it looks like McCain is ahead because of the big spike but Obama's is larger because it's flat and wide.

Win Percentage 57.5% Obama, 42.5% McCain.
Probable EV- 285-286 Obama vs 251-252 McCain.
Probable Popular Vote- 48.8% Obama, 48.0% McCain, 3.4% Nader or Barr

538's model is much odder- they take polls, but they have a rating for pollsters based on their sample size and their historical propensity for error (the latter a sort of 'non-statistical margin of error').

Then it takes the trends and integrates them somehow into the polls, to account for public opinion shifting- a candidate going / is expected to get more than a candidate going \ than the average would suggest.

Then it takes all this data and simulates it with some sort of randomization of a 'public opinion' tipping factor 10,000 times. That's how the win percents, the odd EV totals (since they're not a prediction but a probability), the gradient maps of win chances (1% Obama Alabama, 0% McCain DC, 27% Obama Florida, etc.) It's rather entertaining to look at the 10,000 things at the bottom right of the page and see what weird stuff went on:

1.25% chance of Electoral College Tie
7.05% chance of Recount
2.90% chance of Obama winning the EV without popular
2.41% chance of McCain doing the same.
27.00% chance of Obama winning without Ohio
14.97% chance of Obama winning a supermajority of electoral votes
4.91% chance of McCain doing the same.

if you look at the electoral spike thing, you'll see even weirder stuff- 1 out of 10,000 times, Obama gets like 40 EV and McCain almost 500. I think this is if he turned out to have killed a homeless person or something. But those are anomalies, the real major things are the win percents and the interesting statistics.

There's also a senate analysis- 100% chance of a Democratic majority, 15% chance of a Supermajority, and a graph of all inbetween.

Finally, a Tipping Points graph- I think this is states that if Obama wins, he has an X% chance of winning. Colorado is 40%, for instance, or Virginia 26%. I don't know if it's additive or sequential if he won 2 of them. There's also a Return on Investment index which appears to integrate the chances of a win and the tipping point level into a coherent whole.

Strangely enough, statistically the 3 top states for Obama to invest in are Colorado, New Hampshire, and Nevada, which are not real big historical swing states. Presumably this all follows for McCain but in reverse, for denying them to Obama.

All in all a fascinating site.
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Post by Shinova »

Watching the youtube of his speech and for once in a long time there's a politician that can actually talk like a leader.
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Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

ray245 wrote:Hell...even the so called liberals aren't any better.

I mean if you look beyond the fact that the liberals here are calling for a stronger opposition, and more freedom of speech blah blah blah.

Alot of their stand is JUST like the Republicians.

And they are the so called opposition supporters.

I'm very annoyed with members on both side of the political spectrum.
You know, you aren't exactly claiming to understand the problem much, by what you just said.
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Post by Sikon »

Politicians are verbose. Since many people describe it as the best they've heard, let's look at a transcript of Barack Obama's convention speech:
To Chairman Dean and my great friend Dick Durbin; and to all my fellow citizens of this great nation;

With profound gratitude and great humility, I accept your nomination for the presidency of the United States.

Let me express my thanks to the historic slate of candidates who accompanied me on this journey, and especially the one who traveled the farthest - a champion for working Americans and an inspiration to my daughters and to yours -- Hillary Rodham Clinton. To President Clinton, who last night made the case for change as only he can make it; to Ted Kennedy, who embodies the spirit of service; and to the next Vice President of the United States, Joe Biden, I thank you. I am grateful to finish this journey with one of the finest statesmen of our time, a man at ease with everyone from world leaders to the conductors on the Amtrak train he still takes home every night.

To the love of my life, our next First Lady, Michelle Obama, and to Sasha and Malia - I love you so much, and I'm so proud of all of you.

Four years ago, I stood before you and told you my story - of the brief union between a young man from Kenya and a young woman from Kansas who weren't well-off or well-known, but shared a belief that in America, their son could achieve whatever he put his mind to.

It is that promise that has always set this country apart - that through hard work and sacrifice, each of us can pursue our individual dreams but still come together as one American family, to ensure that the next generation can pursue their dreams as well.

That's why I stand here tonight. Because for two hundred and thirty two years, at each moment when that promise was in jeopardy, ordinary men and women - students and soldiers, farmers and teachers, nurses and janitors -- found the courage to keep it alive.
Summary: Here's nice-sounding rhetoric thanking everybody and trying to make the audience feel good by praising the country, although with no particular information communicated.
We meet at one of those defining moments - a moment when our nation is at war, our economy is in turmoil, and the American promise has been threatened once more.

Tonight, more Americans are out of work and more are working harder for less. More of you have lost your homes and even more are watching your home values plummet.
Summary: There is more unemployment. He thinks it is undesirable for certain goods to become more inexpensive, specifically houses.

Until recently, houses were costing a very rapidly growing number of years-equivalent of the average employee's income to buy, although that made an exceptional profit opportunity for those who could put a fraction of a million dollars into houses and resell when they became more overpriced later.

More of you have cars you can't afford to drive, credit card bills you can't afford to pay, and tuition that's beyond your reach.

These challenges are not all of government's making. But the failure to respond is a direct result of a broken politics in Washington and the failed policies of George W. Bush.

America, we are better than these last eight years. We are a better country than this.

This country is more decent than one where a woman in Ohio, on the brink of retirement, finds herself one illness away from disaster after a lifetime of hard work.

This country is more generous than one where a man in Indiana has to pack up the equipment he's worked on for twenty years and watch it shipped off to China, and then chokes up as he explains how he felt like a failure when he went home to tell his family the news.

We are more compassionate than a government that lets veterans sleep on our streets and families slide into poverty; that sits on its hands while a major American city drowns before our eyes.
Summary: Obama hints at increasing government spending on healthcare, while suggesting he is against outsourcing.
Tonight, I say to the American people, to Democrats and Republicans and Independents across this great land - enough! This moment - this election - is our chance to keep, in the 21st century, the American promise alive. Because next week, in Minnesota, the same party that brought you two terms of George Bush and Dick Cheney will ask this country for a third. And we are here because we love this country too much to let the next four years look like the last eight. On November 4th, we must stand up and say: "Eight is enough."

Now let there be no doubt. The Republican nominee, John McCain, has worn the uniform of our country with bravery and distinction, and for that we owe him our gratitude and respect. And next week, we'll also hear about those occasions when he's broken with his party as evidence that he can deliver the change that we need.

But the record's clear: John McCain has voted with George Bush ninety percent of the time. Senator McCain likes to talk about judgment, but really, what does it say about your judgment when you think George Bush has been right more than ninety percent of the time? I don't know about you, but I'm not ready to take a ten percent chance on change.

The truth is, on issue after issue that would make a difference in your lives - on health care and education and the economy - Senator McCain has been anything but independent. He said that our economy has made "great progress" under this President. He said that the fundamentals of the economy are strong. And when one of his chief advisors - the man who wrote his economic plan - was talking about the anxiety Americans are feeling, he said that we were just suffering from a "mental recession," and that we've become, and I quote, "a nation of whiners."
Summary: He appeals to party loyalty and says that McCain has supported most of Bush's policies.
A nation of whiners? Tell that to the proud auto workers at a Michigan plant who, after they found out it was closing, kept showing up every day and working as hard as ever, because they knew there were people who counted on the brakes that they made. Tell that to the military families who shoulder their burdens silently as they watch their loved ones leave for their third or fourth or fifth tour of duty. These are not whiners. They work hard and give back and keep going without complaint. These are the Americans that I know.
Summary: He would support ending or reducing troop deployments in occupying Iraq. He presumably also wants the audience to think he would reduce closing of manufacturing plants, although no specific proposed method is suggested here.
Now, I don't believe that Senator McCain doesn't care what's going on in the lives of Americans. I just think he doesn't know. Why else would he define middle-class as someone making under five million dollars a year? How else could he propose hundreds of billions in tax breaks for big corporations and oil companies but not one penny of tax relief to more than one hundred million Americans?
Obama opposes lowering the corporate tax rate.

If true, the "one hundred million Americans" may reference the segment of the population not usually subject to further tax cuts due to paying around zero net federal income taxes after rebates in the first place (although social security can be an exception). Children alone amount to tens of millions of such Americans, not filing taxes.

(Both parties have certain frequent rhetorical tricks; for example, a common Republican one is to reference how few people are paid minimum wage when that's really mostly because places like McDonalds pay a trivial 5 or 10 cents above it just so they can say they aren't paying minimum wage).

How else could he offer a health care plan that would actually tax people's benefits, or an education plan that would do nothing to help families pay for college, or a plan that would privatize Social Security and gamble your retirement?
Obama wants more federal spending on college tuition assistance. He is against McCain's proposal for workers to have the option of putting 20% of their social security payroll taxes in private accounts.
What is that promise?

It's a promise that says each of us has the freedom to make of our own lives what we will, but that we also have the obligation to treat each other with dignity and respect.

It's a promise that says the market should reward drive and innovation and generate growth, but that businesses should live up to their responsibilities to create American jobs, look out for American workers, and play by the rules of the road.

Ours is a promise that says government cannot solve all our problems, but what it should do is that which we cannot do for ourselves - protect us from harm and provide every child a decent education; keep our water clean and our toys safe; invest in new schools and new roads and new science and technology.

Our government should work for us, not against us. It should help us, not hurt us. It should ensure opportunity not just for those with the most money and influence, but for every American who's willing to work.

That's the promise of America - the idea that we are responsible for ourselves, but that we also rise or fall as one nation; the fundamental belief that I am my brother's keeper; I am my sister's keeper.

That's the promise we need to keep. That's the change we need right now.
That's classic rhetoric but with zero information content in all those paragraphs combined. It's not like any politician is going to say they did *not* aim at providing every child a decent education, keeping water clean, etc.

One learns absolutely nothing from the time spent listening to the standard promises above, but many people love such a speech with its appeals to emotion and ideological tribalism.

So let me spell out exactly what that change would mean if I am President.

Change means a tax code that doesn't reward the lobbyists who wrote it, but the American workers and small businesses who deserve it.
Now it's getting a little less vague at least. Obama claims he will change taxes to help workers and small businesses.

Nothing specific is here, although his proposal stated elsewhere to end the social security payroll tax cap would actually greatly raise taxes on the income of a lot of sole proprietorships. With up to 15.3% effectively added to the current max rate of 35%, such would become up to 50.3%, not counting additional state or local taxes. However, probably nearly all of his target audience won't see the contradiction with the claim of reducing taxes on small businesses, since few people know even the basics of the tax system.

Unlike John McCain, I will stop giving tax breaks to corporations that ship jobs overseas, and I will start giving them to companies that create good jobs right here in America.

I will eliminate capital gains taxes for the small businesses and the start-ups that will create the high-wage, high-tech jobs of tomorrow.

I will cut taxes - cut taxes - for 95% of all working families. Because in an economy like this, the last thing we should do is raise taxes on the middle-class.
He implicitly suggests he will reduce taxes more than the Republicans do while meanwhile increasing spending on education and healthcare faster than the Republicans do. Like a typical politician, he promises elsewhere that his policies will result in a reduced federal deficit, a reduced gap between government spending and revenues.
And for the sake of our economy, our security, and the future of our planet, I will set a clear goal as President: in ten years, we will finally end our dependence on oil from the Middle East.

Washington's been talking about our oil addiction for the last thirty years, and John McCain has been there for twenty-six of them. In that time, he's said no to higher fuel-efficiency standards for cars, no to investments in renewable energy, no to renewable fuels. And today, we import triple the amount of oil as the day that Senator McCain took office.

Now is the time to end this addiction, and to understand that drilling is a stop-gap measure, not a long-term solution. Not even close.

As President, I will tap our natural gas reserves, invest in clean coal technology, and find ways to safely harness nuclear power. I'll help our auto companies re-tool, so that the fuel-efficient cars of the future are built right here in America. I'll make it easier for the American people to afford these new cars. And I'll invest 150 billion dollars over the next decade in affordable, renewable sources of energy - wind power and solar power and the next generation of biofuels; an investment that will lead to new industries and five million new jobs that pay well and can't ever be outsourced.

America, now is not the time for small plans.
This is the first specific figure in the speech. That would be $15 billion per year for wind power, solar power, and biofuels. While the current Department of Energy budget is $25 billion per year, the vast majority of that is spent on other purposes.
Now is the time to finally meet our moral obligation to provide every child a world-class education, because it will take nothing less to compete in the global economy. Michelle and I are only here tonight because we were given a chance at an education. And I will not settle for an America where some kids don't have that chance. I'll invest in early childhood education. I'll recruit an army of new teachers, and pay them higher salaries and give them more support. And in exchange, I'll ask for higher standards and more accountability. And we will keep our promise to every young American - if you commit to serving your community or your country, we will make sure you can afford a college education.

Now is the time to finally keep the promise of affordable, accessible health care for every single American. If you have health care, my plan will lower your premiums. If you don't, you'll be able to get the same kind of coverage that members of Congress give themselves. And as someone who watched my mother argue with insurance companies while she lay in bed dying of cancer, I will make certain those companies stop discriminating against those who are sick and need care the most.
Increased spending on education and healthcare is referenced again. (Average current U.S. educational spending is about $200000 per year per 20 students, mostly by local and state governments).
Now is the time to help families with paid sick days and better family leave, because nobody in America should have to choose between keeping their jobs and caring for a sick child or ailing parent.

Now is the time to change our bankruptcy laws, so that your pensions are protected ahead of CEO bonuses; and the time to protect Social Security for future generations.

And now is the time to keep the promise of equal pay for an equal day's work, because I want my daughters to have exactly the same opportunities as your sons.

Now, many of these plans will cost money, which is why I've laid out how I'll pay for every dime - by closing corporate loopholes and tax havens that don't help America grow. But I will also go through the federal budget, line by line, eliminating programs that no longer work and making the ones we do need work better and cost less - because we cannot meet twenty-first century challenges with a twentieth century bureaucracy.

And Democrats, we must also admit that fulfilling America's promise will require more than just money. It will require a renewed sense of responsibility from each of us to recover what John F. Kennedy called our "intellectual and moral strength." Yes, government must lead on energy independence, but each of us must do our part to make our homes and businesses more efficient. Yes, we must provide more ladders to success for young men who fall into lives of crime and despair. But we must also admit that programs alone can't replace parents; that government can't turn off the television and make a child do her homework; that fathers must take more responsibility for providing the love and guidance their children need.

Individual responsibility and mutual responsibility - that's the essence of America's promise.
No more figures here.
And just as we keep our promise to the next generation here at home, so must we keep America's promise abroad. If John McCain wants to have a debate about who has the temperament, and judgment, to serve as the next Commander-in-Chief, that's a debate I'm ready to have.

For while Senator McCain was turning his sights to Iraq just days after 9/11, I stood up and opposed this war, knowing that it would distract us from the real threats we face. When John McCain said we could just "muddle through" in Afghanistan, I argued for more resources and more troops to finish the fight against the terrorists who actually attacked us on 9/11, and made clear that we must take out Osama bin Laden and his lieutenants if we have them in our sights. John McCain likes to say that he'll follow bin Laden to the Gates of Hell - but he won't even go to the cave where he lives.

And today, as my call for a time frame to remove our troops from Iraq has been echoed by the Iraqi government and even the Bush Administration, even after we learned that Iraq has a $79 billion surplus while we're wallowing in deficits, John McCain stands alone in his stubborn refusal to end a misguided war.

That's not the judgment we need. That won't keep America safe. We need a President who can face the threats of the future, not keep grasping at the ideas of the past.

You don't defeat a terrorist network that operates in eighty countries by occupying Iraq. You don't protect Israel and deter Iran just by talking tough in Washington. You can't truly stand up for Georgia when you've strained our oldest alliances. If John McCain wants to follow George Bush with more tough talk and bad strategy, that is his choice - but it is not the change we need.

We are the party of Roosevelt. We are the party of Kennedy. So don't tell me that Democrats won't defend this country. Don't tell me that Democrats won't keep us safe. The Bush-McCain foreign policy has squandered the legacy that generations of Americans -- Democrats and Republicans - have built, and we are here to restore that legacy.

As Commander-in-Chief, I will never hesitate to defend this nation, but I will only send our troops into harm's way with a clear mission and a sacred commitment to give them the equipment they need in battle and the care and benefits they deserve when they come home.

I will end this war in Iraq responsibly, and finish the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. I will rebuild our military to meet future conflicts. But I will also renew the tough, direct diplomacy that can prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and curb Russian aggression. I will build new partnerships to defeat the threats of the 21st century: terrorism and nuclear proliferation; poverty and genocide; climate change and disease. And I will restore our moral standing, so that America is once again that last, best hope for all who are called to the cause of freedom, who long for lives of peace, and who yearn for a better future.

These are the policies I will pursue. And in the weeks ahead, I look forward to debating them with John McCain.

But what I will not do is suggest that the Senator takes his positions for political purposes. Because one of the things that we have to change in our politics is the idea that people cannot disagree without challenging each other's character and patriotism.

The times are too serious, the stakes are too high for this same partisan playbook. So let us agree that patriotism has no party. I love this country, and so do you, and so does John McCain. The men and women who serve in our battlefields may be Democrats and Republicans and Independents, but they have fought together and bled together and some died together under the same proud flag. They have not served a Red America or a Blue America - they have served the United States of America.

So I've got news for you, John McCain. We all put our country first.

America, our work will not be easy. The challenges we face require tough choices, and Democrats as well as Republicans will need to cast off the worn-out ideas and politics of the past. For part of what has been lost these past eight years can't just be measured by lost wages or bigger trade deficits. What has also been lost is our sense of common purpose - our sense of higher purpose. And that's what we have to restore.
Summary: Obama would end the war in Iraq (which would be a good decision).
We may not agree on abortion, but surely we can agree on reducing the number of unwanted pregnancies in this country. The reality of gun ownership may be different for hunters in rural Ohio than for those plagued by gang-violence in Cleveland, but don't tell me we can't uphold the Second Amendment while keeping AK-47s out of the hands of criminals.
Importing of fully automatic weapons including AK-47s has already been banned for decades by current laws (outside of licenses so restrictive and few as to be irrelevant to criminal usage).

Of course, a lot of the target audience is unlikely to know the difference between semi-automatic and fully-automatic weapons.

I know there are differences on same-sex marriage, but surely we can agree that our gay and lesbian brothers and sisters deserve to visit the person they love in the hospital and to live lives free of discrimination. Passions fly on immigration, but I don't know anyone who benefits when a mother is separated from her infant child or an employer undercuts American wages by hiring illegal workers.
He wants to prevent those in the country illegally from being employed.

Although a president and his enforcement capabilities have too limited power to fully cause this in reality, it would be "interesting" in one sense to see what would happen. Imagine if the 12 to 20 million illegal immigrants currently in the U.S. could not get money to eat and survive by work, only by crime. Most of the U.S. agricultural workforce is based on them, since fewer native-born citizens have any real interest in putting up with the extremely hard labor involved.

There can be justification to tighten border control or even sometimes to deport people. However, if they are in the country, in the real world they will either work productively or turn to crime to survive rather than die of starvation or freeze on the streets, so it is best not to discourage employment too effectively.

This too is part of America's promise - the promise of a democracy where we can find the strength and grace to bridge divides and unite in common effort.

I know there are those who dismiss such beliefs as happy talk. They claim that our insistence on something larger, something firmer and more honest in our public life is just a Trojan Horse for higher taxes and the abandonment of traditional values. And that's to be expected. Because if you don't have any fresh ideas, then you use stale tactics to scare the voters. If you don't have a record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone people should run from.

You make a big election about small things.

And you know what - it's worked before. Because it feeds into the cynicism we all have about government. When Washington doesn't work, all its promises seem empty. If your hopes have been dashed again and again, then it's best to stop hoping, and settle for what you already know.

I get it. I realize that I am not the likeliest candidate for this office. I don't fit the typical pedigree, and I haven't spent my career in the halls of Washington.

But I stand before you tonight because all across America something is stirring. What the nay-sayers don't understand is that this election has never been about me. It's been about you.

For eighteen long months, you have stood up, one by one, and said enough to the politics of the past. You understand that in this election, the greatest risk we can take is to try the same old politics with the same old players and expect a different result. You have shown what history teaches us - that at defining moments like this one, the change we need doesn't come from Washington. Change comes to Washington. Change happens because the American people demand it - because they rise up and insist on new ideas and new leadership, a new politics for a new time.

America, this is one of those moments.

I believe that as hard as it will be, the change we need is coming. Because I've seen it. Because I've lived it. I've seen it in Illinois, when we provided health care to more children and moved more families from welfare to work. I've seen it in Washington, when we worked across party lines to open up government and hold lobbyists more accountable, to give better care for our veterans and keep nuclear weapons out of terrorist hands.

And I've seen it in this campaign. In the young people who voted for the first time, and in those who got involved again after a very long time. In the Republicans who never thought they'd pick up a Democratic ballot, but did. I've seen it in the workers who would rather cut their hours back a day than see their friends lose their jobs, in the soldiers who re-enlist after losing a limb, in the good neighbors who take a stranger in when a hurricane strikes and the floodwaters rise.

This country of ours has more wealth than any nation, but that's not what makes us rich. We have the most powerful military on Earth, but that's not what makes us strong. Our universities and our culture are the envy of the world, but that's not what keeps the world coming to our shores.

Instead, it is that American spirit - that American promise - that pushes us forward even when the path is uncertain; that binds us together in spite of our differences; that makes us fix our eye not on what is seen, but what is unseen, that better place around the bend.

That promise is our greatest inheritance. It's a promise I make to my daughters when I tuck them in at night, and a promise that you make to yours - a promise that has led immigrants to cross oceans and pioneers to travel west; a promise that led workers to picket lines, and women to reach for the ballot.

And it is that promise that forty five years ago today, brought Americans from every corner of this land to stand together on a Mall in Washington, before Lincoln's Memorial, and hear a young preacher from Georgia speak of his dream.

The men and women who gathered there could've heard many things. They could've heard words of anger and discord. They could've been told to succumb to the fear and frustration of so many dreams deferred.

But what the people heard instead - people of every creed and color, from every walk of life - is that in America, our destiny is inextricably linked. That together, our dreams can be one.

"We cannot walk alone," the preacher cried. "And as we walk, we must make the pledge that we shall always march ahead. We cannot turn back."

America, we cannot turn back. Not with so much work to be done. Not with so many children to educate, and so many veterans to care for. Not with an economy to fix and cities to rebuild and farms to save. Not with so many families to protect and so many lives to mend. America, we cannot turn back. We cannot walk alone. At this moment, in this election, we must pledge once more to march into the future. Let us keep that promise - that American promise - and in the words of Scripture hold firmly, without wavering, to the hope that we confess.

Thank you, God Bless you, and God Bless the United States of America.
From here.

Summary: Here's more nice-sounding rhetoric although with nothing specific.

While artfully written to be what the average voter thinks is great, this illustrates the ineffectiveness of listening to speeches if not swayed by blatant appeals to emotion. Nothing is really learned from it aside from a single numerical figure and what was mostly already obvious. Looking at campaign platforms is a lot more efficient than reading speeches. Most politicians (including McCain too) use countless paragraphs to communicate very little actual information.
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[/url]Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one cannot live in the cradle forever.

― Konstantin Tsiolkovsky
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