UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Fears as Belarus president signs law making it impossible for him to ever face criminal prosecution

The Belarusian President signed a new law this week that gives him lifelong immunity from criminal prosecution and prevents opposition leaders living abroad from running in future presidential elections.

The law theoretically applies to any former president and members of his or her family.

In reality, it is only relevant to Alexander Lukashenko, 69, who has ruled Belarus with an iron fist for almost 30 years.

The new measure appears aimed at further shoring up Mr Lukashenko's power and eliminating potential challengers in the country's next presidential election, which is due to take place in 2025.

The law significantly tightens requirements for presidential candidates and makes it impossible to elect opposition leaders who fled to neighbouring countries in recent years.

Only citizens of Belarus who have permanently lived in the country for at least 20 years and have never had a residence permit in another country are eligible to run.

Belarus was rocked by mass protests during Mr Lukashenko's controversial re-election in August 2020 for a sixth term, which the opposition and the West condemned as fraudulent.

At that time, Belarusian authorities detained more than 35,000 people, many of whom were tortured in custody or left the country.

Mr Lukashenko also has been accused of involvement in the illegal transfer of children from Russian-occupied towns in Ukraine to Belarus.

According to the text of the new law, Mr Lukashenko, were he to leave power, 'cannot be held accountable for actions committed in connection with exercising his presidential powers'.

The law also says the president and members of his family will be provided with lifelong state protection, medical care, life and health insurance.

After resigning, the president would also become a permanent lifelong member of the upper house of parliament.

Opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who fled to neighbouring Lithuania in 2020, said the new law is Mr Lukashenko's response to his 'fear of an inevitable future', suggesting he must be concerned about what happens to him when he leaves power.

'Lukashenko, who ruined the fates of thousands of Belarusians, will be punished according to international law, and no immunity will protect him against this, it's only a matter of time,' Ms Tikhanovskaya said.

The country's political opposition is seeking an investigation into the disappearances of opposition politicians and the removal of Ukrainian children from Ukraine.

'We will ensure that the dictator is brought to justice,' Ms Tikhanovskaya said, emphasizing that there are still about 1,500 political prisoners behind bars in Belarus, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski.

[Ralin]

Only citizens of Belarus who have permanently lived in the country for at least 20 years and have never had a residence permit in another country are eligible to run.

So America or some other country gives Lukashenko a residence permit and bam, he's no longer eligible.

Hell, give him citizenship. Do they also have a rule about dual citizens?

[Gandalf]

A person, who is born a citizen of the Republic of Belarus, who is at least 40 years of age, and who has lived in Belarus for at least 20 years right before the election not having and never having had the citizenship of a foreign state or a residence permit or any other document of a foreign state giving the right to bonuses and other benefits, can run for the presidency.

So another country could interfere by granting a president or candidate citizenship.

[LaCroix]

Someone disliked the program, it seems...

Head of Putin’s state-run TV empire Zoya Konovalova, 48, found dead with ex-husband after being ‘poisoned’

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Someone disliked the program, it seems...

Head of Putin’s state-run TV empire Zoya Konovalova, 48, found dead with ex-husband after being ‘poisoned’

Probably a sudden case of lead poisoning

That said, The Sun is one of the most infamous papers in Britain. There is a lot to say about it, most of it not very kind. But here's a description of the average Sun reader by its own former editor, the notorious Kelvin MacKenzie:

"He's the bloke you see in the pub, a right old fascist, wants to send the wogs back, buy his poxy council house, he's afraid of the unions, afraid of the Russians, hates the queers and the weirdos and drug dealers. He doesn't want to hear about [serious news]."

The list of people who loathe the Sun basically encompasses everybody not in that description. And in spite of that, the Sun is the best-selling paper in the British isles and the tenth most popular worldwide.

[LadyTevar]

The story's been picked up by Newsweek, but nothing in BBC or NPR about it yet.

[LaCroix]

Here, by FUCKING RIA... is that enough? Or do I have to get written confirmation from Putin himself?

https://ria.ru/20240106/zhurnalistka-1919959346.html

[Ralin]

A person, who is born a citizen of the Republic of Belarus, who is at least 40 years of age, and who has lived in Belarus for at least 20 years right before the election not having and never having had the citizenship of a foreign state or a residence permit or any other document of a foreign state giving the right to bonuses and other benefits, can run for the presidency.

So another country could interfere by granting a president or candidate citizenship.

This is also one of the reasons why renouncing citizenship in general can get complicated. Generally no one can make a foreign government not consider someone one of their citizens.

Here, by FUCKING RIA... is that enough? Or do I have to get written confirmation from Putin himself?

https://ria.ru/20240106/zhurnalistka-1919959346.html

You seem to have a bit of a chip on your shoulder about people wanting sources for stuff.

[LaCroix]

No, I have a chip on my shoulder about people dismissing anything if it is not being printed by fucking BBC or any other "approved" media, when 99% of all information in this war is only posted on social media, and only picked up by these news outlets like 5 days later, if at all, when ther is already a million other news stories to be talked about. On top of the fact that the new hot thing is Palestine, and nobody wants to hear about Ukraine anymore, especially the Rusbots.

There is so much info and war footage being posted being posted directly from the units at the front, people having access to intercepted phone calls and other things, along with social media leaking through that 90% of what I am posting is never going to be picked up by any "official" news source, especially since it is not postable on any of these. There are people who's actual job is it to compile the amount of data into briefings just to roughtly stay on top of it.

But you know what - I'm fucking done. Get your fucking news yourself.

Consider this my last post in this fucking thread.

[Gandalf]

A person, who is born a citizen of the Republic of Belarus, who is at least 40 years of age, and who has lived in Belarus for at least 20 years right before the election not having and never having had the citizenship of a foreign state or a residence permit or any other document of a foreign state giving the right to bonuses and other benefits, can run for the presidency.

So another country could interfere by granting a president or candidate citizenship.

This is also one of the reasons why renouncing citizenship in general can get complicated. Generally no one can make a foreign government not consider someone one of their citizens.

Definitely. It was an issue in Australia a few years ago. We have a similar law around dual citizens not being allowed in Parliament, and it came out that a bunch of our parliamentarians were dual citizens of the UK and New Zealand. Some had to step down and come back via by elections after renouncing citizenships.

[LaCroix]

I've been asked to continue, so I will... That's a brief overview over the last 2 days...

After a few days, we finally have western media pick up on the latest in losses by the VDV.
https://www.newsweek.com/top-russian-ai ... ts-1858872

One of their commanders Colonel Arman Ospanov arrived to boost morale for the VDV who have gotten stomped, repeatedly, trying to drive out a couple of marines holed up in Krinky. We are talking about 50% average losses, to a VDV that was already rebuilt on the remnants of an equally destroyed original VDV.

As far as I know the story, he went with a salvage team trying to recover a damaged tank(s) from the frontline before the Ukrainians had finish the tanks off.
Maybe tried to project a "man of the people" image, maybe the people refused to go on this (extremely dangerous) mission unless their commander joins them (a demand a lot of russian units have voiced in the region, especially regarding orders to assault the islands)or maybe he actually really cared...

Anyway, he got out of the tow vehicle, and stepped on a mine. Pretty sure it boosted the morale of the average VDV to finally have one of the people sending them in there, over and over, getting blown up, themselves.


At the same time, we had another incident of "emergency release" ammunition near the Kremina frontline, hitting another occupied town (Rubizhne) on the russian side of the frontline. It seems there were no casualties (according to russian officials), but the area near the impact had to be evacuated for safety reasons. The second incident in a week. Either the pilots are badly trained and keep hitting wrong buttons or the airframes are starting to show signs of wear and have malfunctions. Needs to be kept under observation.


Moscow is finally doing something after the embarrassment of a part of Moscow being frozen for days... They also use it to seize an ammunition factory. Context: A lot of these factories keep having "incidents", that give them "plausible" cause to not meet the sky high demands of production, apart of trying to use these to siphon off even more money. Seems these ones went too far with their scheme, as the burst boiler caused the neighborhood to shut down, too, and it became too much of an embarrasment to have a part of the capital being frozen for days without any help when the election is looming.
for reference - https://www.kyivpost.com/post/26537

This is becoming a widespread problem in the last week, as dropping temperatures put strain of the old and decrepit systems, causing several such incidents. In the city of Selyatino, near Moscow, people have recorded pleas to the officialy to finally fix the heating in the town. Elektrostal has the same issues. There may be more, but I can't filter that out, it's just too much footage.
Afaik, these cities have centralized heating grids, which often can be seen as huge insulated pipes running above ground in poorer regions, which are generally a good idea to heat a large complex of buildings. But then again - if you take most able bodied men and put them on the frontline, these usually already only barely functional networks that were already operating with a barebone staff before the war, are the first that go under strain.
At these temperatures, having heat malfunctioning for as much as an hour can already be enough to have some radiator or line freeze (remember, these houses are barely insulated). This will either kill the network completely, depending on pipe location, or have it thaw and leak once you fixed it, causing an even bigger problem that can shut down the whole network pretty quick.

Meanwhile
France is sending more cruise missiles.
Germany added one of their new Skynet systems to the latest bundle
Germany and Britain are renewing their statements to be supporting Ukraine for the years to come.
Sweden is sending troops to Lithuania, even though their NATO status is not yet finalized.
Romania is having good progress on their highway to ukraine, to allow them to get the exports out despite Russias port blockades - latest reports are that there are currently about 3000 people working 24/7 on that project.

Oh, and just in -
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-j ... ng-kremlin
Official story is a sudden death by a heart condition.
Yeah, he probably realized how wrong he was with his reports, and how much he hurt Putin and his oligarch bros with his unfounded accusations of rampant corruption. And it broke his heart. Or something...

[Solauren]

Posting links is always helpful.

[LaCroix]

As I thought, it wasn't Gerasimov that was hit by that attack.

Colonel Vadim Nailyovich Ismagilov, commander of the 3rd Signals Intelligence Regiment of Russia's Aerospace Forces was the most prominent casualty. His branch is the people who operate radar, communication, all that stuff. Not sure if reconissance drone operation falls among that, too, but I think they do have a hand in that, since it is all "radioelectronic".

https://www.newsweek.com/vadim-nailyovi ... ke-1859738

[LaCroix]

Some news clippings from russia regarding the freezing.

https://www-dp-ru.translate.goog/a/2024 ... --voinskij

from December 31 to January 2, there were more than 50 power outages in the region.
Several areas with houses without power for days. (remember - houses = large appartment buildings of the communist era)
I have seen footage claiming that Omsk is completely out of power, too. No news on that, yet.

Further down some more interesting articles - for example about a significant shortage of labor. Now why that could be an issue simply eludes me...

[Gandalf]

An interesting piece from ABC News about the demographic problems that Ukraine is facing as this drags on. We saw the forced conscription going on, and this makes me think that it'll only get worse.

Hopefully any military aged male (a widening definition seemingly) who doesn't want to fight can make it over the border.

[PainRack]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/12/russia- ... -2024.html


The REAL problem for Ukraine pops up. The US has issued the last aid package it's authorized for. While there's still aid in the pipeline, they must wait for Congress for future authorisation.


This while US faces a potential shutdown issue.

[LaCroix]

Remember the story where russian air defense shot up their own paratroopers doing training near Rostov-on-don because they thought it might be an invasion.

Russian air defense keeps being twitchy, it seems.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-50-il-2 ... ea-1860617
An A50 AWACS was supposedly lost over azov sea after reporting being hit by a missile (a jet fighter later searching the area was not able to find the plane they lost all contact with) , an IL-22 survaillance plane got hit and returned to base(demanding fire brigade and medical assistance on landing), but is severely damaged, maybe rendered unusable, according to intercepted comms.

This happened far south over the azov sea, not even patriot could reach that far, so the only plausible causes are:
Russian air defense,
Russian fighters being stupid
a yet unknown superweapon able to intercept aircraft at 3-400 km range,
or some Ukrainian hotshot flying a jet all across the southern ukraine and half the sea of azov, shooting them down, and then flying back, unnoticed by radar.
The above list is sorted by plausibility.

[Mr Bean]

There's a fifth possibility you left off, that of a sea based or air drone equipped as a one shot sneaking closing enough to pop off a missile re-purposed just to shoot these things down. No super weapon needed but a temporary lash up designed too take advantage of Russian flight patterns. There's initial reports that the A50 flight pattern might have been regular enough to set your watch to and if you know exactly where a plane is going to be at what height and at what time then maybe you can sneak something in close enough to prevent easy interception.

TL:DR not a super weapon but a one shot

[Zaune]

This happened far south over the azov sea, not even patriot could reach that far, so the only plausible causes are:
Russian air defense,
Russian fighters being stupid
a yet unknown superweapon able to intercept aircraft at 3-400 km range,
or some Ukrainian hotshot flying a jet all across the southern ukraine and half the sea of azov, shooting them down, and then flying back, unnoticed by radar.

Another possibility: The Americans have let the Ukrainians borrow a couple of F-19 Ghostriders, and they've taken a slightly unorthodox approach to Suppression of Enemy Air Defences.

Yes, I'm joking. But this incident does bring to mind that part of Red Storm Rising when the US Air Force did basically that with their stealth fighters.

[LaCroix]

Either is marginally possible... But getting two planes in one go with such a hail mary plan would mean the planner was the luckiest SOB on the planet.
I heard some tentative admission that it was friendly fire... not confirmed, though... we'll see.
According to the online chatter this is the same A50 that Ukraine already damaged, once, by landing a bomb UAV on it.

Some other news from over the weekend:
Life just got wayyy harder for Russians - their version of amazon went up in smoke
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 024-01-13/

[Lord Revan]

Either is marginally possible... But getting two planes in one go with such a hail mary plan would mean the planner was the luckiest SOB on the planet.
I heard some tentative admission that it was friendly fire... not confirmed, though... we'll see.
According to the online chatter this is the same A50 that Ukraine already damaged, once, by landing a bomb UAV on it.

Some other news from over the weekend:
Life just got wayyy harder for Russians - their version of amazon went up in smoke
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 024-01-13/

I assume you mean the company and not the region.

[LaCroix]

Either is marginally possible... But getting two planes in one go with such a hail mary plan would mean the planner was the luckiest SOB on the planet.
I heard some tentative admission that it was friendly fire... not confirmed, though... we'll see.
According to the online chatter this is the same A50 that Ukraine already damaged, once, by landing a bomb UAV on it.

Some other news from over the weekend:
Life just got wayyy harder for Russians - their version of amazon went up in smoke
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 024-01-13/

I assume you mean the company and not the region.

Well, according to long-standing reporting about the issues with Chineses ressource plundering, that one might just as well do that in due time, at least figuratively...
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1029724

But I was talking about the first, yes.

[LaCroix]

ooookay - news update - it seems it was the Ukrainians who got the A-50, and these planes were flying much closer to Zhaporisia than first stated. They pretty much hugged the coastline for multiple passes, and got the bill mailed...

Article also linking the X feed where the radar logs of the flights are posted.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/15/7437268/

The story goes that the IL22 was then hit by the panicking AA defense, and got the heck out of dodge all across the southern azov sea to land, rather than dealing with that bullshit, again, for a much closer landing site in southern ukraine or Rostov on Don.
https://airlive.net/military/2024/01/15 ... the-night/
Pictures allegedly showing that plane show a tail completely riddled with holes. The rest is probably in similar condition. That kind or damage is pretty much the end for such an airframe, not even considering other damages, including the fact that the plane was on fire (requesting fire trucks on landing), and people were hurt (requested ambulance). In this kind of plane, people are only sitting next to very expensive and fragile equipment.

[LaCroix]

Something I stumbled upon:

Russia is planning to build a second (or maybe call it first, since the Kuznetsov never worked, and keeps getting destroyed by the repair efforts) aircraft carrier.

https://tass.com/defense/1730443

Another prestige project, mostly - or maybe they really gave up on the old rustbucket.

[Vympel]

Another negative article amongst a wave of them:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/13/worl ... a-war.html

The Ukrainian soldier stared at the Russian tank. It was destroyed over a year ago in the country’s east and now sat far from the front line. He shrugged and cut into its rusted hull with a gas torch.

The soldier was not there for the tank’s engine or turret or treads. Those had already been salvaged. He was there for its thick armor. The metal would be cut and strapped as protection to Ukrainian armored personnel carriers defending the embattled town of Avdiivka, around 65 miles away.

The need to cannibalize a destroyed Russian vehicle to help protect Ukraine’s dwindling supply of equipment underscores Kyiv’s current challenges on the battlefield as it prepares for another year of pitched combat.

“If our international partners moved faster, we would have kicked their ass in the first three or four months so hard that we would have gotten over it already. We’d be sowing fields and raising children,” said the soldier, who went by the call sign Jaeger, in keeping with military protocol. “We’d be sending bread to Europe. But it’s been two years already.”

Ukraine’s military prospects are looking bleak. Western military aid is no longer assured at the same levels as years past. Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive in the south, where Jaeger was wounded days after it began, is over, having failed to meet any of its objectives.

And now, Russian troops are on the attack, especially in the country’s east. The town of Marinka has all but fallen. Avdiivka is being slowly encircled. A push on Chasiv Yar, near Bakhmut, is expected. Farther north, outside Kupiansk, the fighting has barely slowed since the fall.

The joke among Ukrainian troops goes like this: The Russian army is not good or bad. It is just long. The Kremlin has more of everything: more men, ammunition and vehicles. And they are not stopping despite their mounting numbers of wounded and dead.

But the soldiers’ joke had another certain truth to it. Neither side has distinguished themselves with tactics that have led to a breakthrough on the battlefield. Instead, it has been a deadly dance of small technological advances on both sides that have yet to turn the tide, leaving a conflict that looks like a modernized version of World War I’s Western Front: sheer mass versus mass.

It is that tactic that provides Russia the advantage as it pushes to secure Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, Moscow’s primary war aim after its defeat in 2022 around Kharkiv, Kherson and the capital, Kyiv. Russia has a population three times the size of Ukraine’s, and its military industrial base is operating at full tilt.

“The Russian advantage at this stage is not decisive, but the war is not a stalemate,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who recently visited Ukraine. “Depending on what happens this year, particularly with western support for Ukraine, 2024 will likely take one of two trajectories. Ukraine could retake the advantage by 2025, or it could start losing the war without sufficient aid.”

For now, Ukraine is in a perilous position. The problems afflicting its military have been exacerbated since the summer. Ukrainian soldiers are exhausted by long stretches of combat and shorter rest periods. The ranks, thinned by mounting casualties, are only being partly replenished, often with older and poorly trained recruits.

One Ukrainian soldier, part of a brigade tasked with holding the line southwest of Avdiivka, pointed to a video he took during training recently. The instructors, trying to stifle their laughs, were forced to hold up the man, who was in his mid-50s, just so he could fire his rifle. The man was crippled from alcoholism, said the soldier, insisting on anonymity to candidly describe a private training episode.

“Three out of ten soldiers who show up are no better than drunks who fell asleep and woke up in uniform,” he said, referring to the new recruits who arrive at his brigade.

Kyiv’s recruiting strategy has been plagued by overly aggressive tactics and more widespread attempts to dodge the draft. Efforts to rectify the problem have spawned a political argument between the military and civilian leadership.

Military officials reinforce the need for wider mobilization to win the war, but the office of President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine is apprehensive about introducing unpopular changes that could end with a drive to mobilize 500,000 new soldiers. That number, analysts say, takes into account Ukraine’s staggering losses and what is likely needed to push back the Russians.

While Ukrainian casualties remain a closely guarded secret, U.S. officials over the summer estimated deaths and injuries to be well over 150,000. Russian forces have also taken huge numbers of casualties, according to those officials, but the Kremlin’s forces still managed to repel a concerted Ukrainian counteroffensive, regroup and are now assaulting in frigid winter conditions.

“We’re tired,” a Ukrainian platoon commander said, speaking anonymously given the sensitivity of his comments. “We could always use more people.”

The shortage of troops is only one part of the problem. The other and currently more pressing issue is Ukraine’s dwindling ammunition reserves as continued Western supplies remain anything but certain. Ukrainian commanders now have to ration their ammunition, not knowing whether every new shipment might be their last.

At the end of 2023, members of a Ukrainian artillery crew from the 10th Brigade sat inside a bunker nestled into a bare tree line in the country’s east, their Soviet-era 122-millimeter howitzer draped in camouflage netting and leafless branches.

Only when a truck carrying two artillery shells arrived could the crew get to work for the first time in days. They quickly loaded the shells and fired toward Russian soldiers attacking Ukrainian positions three miles away.

“Today we had two shells, but some days we don’t have any in these positions,” said the crew’s commander, who goes by the call sign Monk. “The last time we fired was four days ago, and that was only five shells.”

The shortage of ammunition — and the shifting battlefield momentum — means the gunners are no longer supporting Ukrainian attacks. Instead, they only fire when Russian troops are storming Ukrainian trenches.

“We can stop them for now, but who knows,” Monk said. “Tomorrow or the next day, maybe we can’t stop them. It’s a really big problem for us.”

Near Kupiansk, a deputy battalion commander from the 68th Brigade, who goes by the call sign Italian, echoed Monk’s concerns.

“I have two tanks, but only five shells,” said Italian, as he walked through a denuded tree line splintered by shelling about 500 yards from Russian positions in the Luhansk region. “It’s a bad situation now, especially in Avdiivka and Kupiansk.”

This ammunition imbalance has been felt across much of the more than 600-mile front line, Ukrainian soldiers said. The Russian units are in a position similar to the summer of 2022, where they can simply wear down a Ukrainian position until Kyiv’s forces run out of ordnance. But unlike that summer, there is no longer a frantic scramble in Western capitals to arm and re-equip Ukraine’s troops.

And unlike that summer, drones have assumed a much larger presence in the arsenal of both sides — especially the FPV racing drones affixed with explosives and used like remote-controlled missiles.

These drones have supplemented traditional artillery as both Russia and Ukraine wrestle with stockpiling enough shells to wage a protracted and bloody war. In the past nine months, the FPV drone numbers have surged by at least 10 times, and more casualties are caused by drones than artillery on some parts of the front, Ukrainian soldiers said.

Even the tranche of United States-supplied cluster munitions, controversial because they harm civilians long after a war’s end, has lost some of its potency on the battlefield.

“Initially in September, we could hit large groups, but now they assault in much smaller units,” said the platoon commander, who was fighting outside Bakhmut. He added that the Russians have made their trenches even deeper and harder to hit.

Outside Avdiivka, where Russian forces are concentrating much of their forces in the east, the rumble of artillery on one recent afternoon was almost nonstop. It was a soundtrack not heard since the war’s earlier months, when Russian paramilitary forces assaulted Bakhmut, eventually capturing it.

The soldiers defending Avdiivka’s flank said that some days, Russian formations had assaulted in nine separate waves, hoping for Ukrainian trenches to fold. It is a tactic replicated across the front by Moscow’s infantry, with little sign of stopping despite a high attrition rate common for a force attacking dug-in positions.

Washington’s suggestion for Ukraine to go on the defensive in 2024 will mean little if Kyiv does not have the ammunition or people to defend what territory it currently holds, analysts have said.

“Our guys are getting pounded heavily,” said Bardak, a Ukrainian soldier working alongside Jaeger next to the derelict tank. “It’s hot all over now.”

TL;DR

- Russian superiority in manpower, equipment and industrial output
- Russians on the attack in the south, east and north
- Ukrainian ammunition and equipment shortages
- Low quality of Ukrainian conscripts
- Recruiting issues

On the 'new' front, it has one of the few mentions in western sources I've seen over the political fight in Ukraine over conducting a further mobilisation.