cosmicalstorm wrote:For starters lets remeber Crimea which started this whole affair. It was also supposedly a purely local affair. A year or two from now when even Russia recognizes this invasion I will bring this thread back up and shame you Vympel...
Thing is, Crimea was 'supposedly a purely local affair' for, what, a few days? It became obvious
soon that entire Russian army units had basically taken off their uniforms and moved in to occupy the territory. It didn't take a month or two for evidence of this to come to light.
Whereas here, with the Ukrainian government having had plenty of time to locate some of these supposed Russian regulars and capture them in battle. They've had plenty of time to collect evidence for their presence. And they have lots of incentive to collect or even outright
make up evidence that this secessionist movement they're trying and failing to defeat is actually a Russian invasion.
And yet,
the Ukrainian government does not claim this.
If they haven't presented evidence and haven't claimed that the Donbass separatists are a Russian invasion at this late date, that strongly suggests the evidence isn't there.
Well here are a few things
Although probably accidentally,
the document provided proof of
direct Russian military involvement
in the conflict. Among the
heavy weapons to be withdrawn is
the Tornado-S, which is explicitly
mentioned. This high-tech, longrange
multiple-launch rocket system
(MLRS) entered into service in the
Russian Federation in 2012, and is
operated by no other state. Hence, if
Tornados are to be withdrawn from
the conflict zone, they could not
have originated from anywhere but
Russia
http://www.fiia.fi/en/publication/485/t ... ceasefire/
Alternatively, the cease-fire agreement specifies that
all long range bombardment rockets be removed, and names every system that could conceivably be in the area, rather than leave open the possibility of lawyering by the Russians at some later date.
I could spend all day posting pictures of Russian tanks and various russian weapon-systems.
This does not prove what you claim to prove. Russian heavy weapons in the hands of ethnic-Russian rebels in the Ukraine proves that Russia supplies them with weapons. It even might prove that some Russian operators are being supplied to operate those weapons. But it does
not prove that entire 'battalions' of Russian soldiers are being funneled into the Donets Basin and pretending to be local rebels in an attempt to covertly invade the area.
Let's have some intellectual integrity here, shall we?
I'm not going to waste the entire day on this. Maybe a majority of the rebel fighters are in fact from Ukraine, maybe they are a minority now that Russian army battalions are moved en masse across the border.
The core point: If there was no Russian Army in this conflict Ukraine would have been more than capable of rolling tanks and dropping bombs from MIG's over a couple of insurgents armed with AK-47's, machineguns, some RPG's and maybe even a couple of stolen armored vehicles. The conflict would have ended just like it was about to end a couple of months ago, before the Russian invasion.
You are aware that the Russian army can supply the Donbass separatists with weapons,
without physically invading the Donbass, right?
The Donbass rebels include plenty of former Ukrainian army (and for that matter former Soviet army) soldiers who know perfectly well how to operate heavy Russian military equipment. While it would no doubt be a huge help to them to have 'advisors' from Russia help train them with these weapons, or even use these weapons personally, Russia does not have to send whole formed units of its own army over the border to accomplish that goal.
There is a huge difference between sending your own army to fight in a territory, and shipping weapons to the locals who were already fighting there. A difference large enough that one is sometimes considered an act of war while the other is not.
Again, let's have some intellectual integrity here, and respect the differences between different things.
Now, the second article you cite at least provides some evidence that
some Russian units have crossed the border. But as noted, they provide no evidence of the scale of the Russian troop movements, only that some Russian units entered the Donbass at some point in time. Which is still provocative and a violation of basic principles of modern international law- but is
not the same as saying the entire rebel movement is just the Russian army pretending to be local rebel formations.