UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[Solauren]

Is the size of those supply chain elements a technological limitation or efficiency driven?

Technological, Efficiency, and the laws of physics all come into play.

[LadyTevar]

Is the size of those supply chain elements a technological limitation or efficiency driven?

Technological, Efficiency, and the laws of physics all come into play.

Definitely Technical. There are only so many ways to ship parts, and as the other thread on the Houthi threat to ships heading to the Suez Canal shows, someone can always throw a wrench into the works.

[J]

I do not think this war will end this year, because as was stated, the best way to win this war is to hit Russia hard enough to end it, and Ukraine cannot do that. NATO does not *want* do to that, because no one wants WWIII and haven't wanted it ever since the first Nuke Silos were built.

So we play the game through proxies, and because certain politicians are lil shits playing power games of their own, the US is falling down on supplying our Proxy so other NATO countries are having to try to step up. Which, again, prolongs this War because no one is able to make a Defining Hit to tell Russia to take its toys and go home.

NATO does not want to do that because they'll be slaughtered even worse than the Ukrainians. The talking heads on TV may be drinking their own Kool-aid, however, the people who study & teach strategy have a far more sober view. They know what it will cost if we directly intervene, and the price is unacceptably high.

Excerpt from the US Army War College quarterly publication:
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/vi ... parameters

Twenty years of counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations
in the Middle East, largely enabled by air, signals, and electromagnetic
dominance, generated chains of command reliant on perfect, uncontested
communication lines and an extraordinary and accurate common operating
picture of the battlefield broadcast in real time to co-located staff in large
Joint Operations Centers. The Russia-Ukraine War makes it clear that
the electromagnetic signature emitted from the command posts of the past
20 years cannot survive against the pace and precision of an adversary
who possesses sensor-based technologies, electronic warfare, and unmanned
aerial systems or has access to satellite imagery; this includes nearly every
state or nonstate actor the United States might find itself fighting in the near
future. The Army must focus on developing command-and-control systems
and mobile command posts that enable continuous movement, allow distributed
collaboration, and synchronize across all warfighting functions to minimize
electronic signature. Ukrainian battalion command posts reportedly consist
of seven soldiers who dig in and jump twice daily; while that standard will
be hard for the US Army to achieve, it points in a very different direction than
the one we have been following for two decades of hardened command posts.

The Russia-Ukraine War is exposing significant vulnerabilities
in the Army’s strategic personnel depth and ability to withstand and replace
casualties.11 Army theater medical planners may anticipate a sustained
rate of roughly 3,600 casualties per day, ranging from those killed in action
to those wounded in action or suffering disease or other non-battle injuries.12
With a 25 percent predicted replacement rate, the personnel system will
require 800 new personnel each day. For context, the United States sustained
about 50,000 casualties in two decades of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan.
In large-scale combat operations, the United States could experience that same
number of casualties in two weeks.

In addition to the disciplined disobedience required to execute effective
mission command, the US Army is facing a dire combination of a recruiting
shortfall and a shrinking Individual Ready Reserve. This recruiting shortfall,
nearly 50 percent in the combat arms career management fields, is a longitudinal
problem. Every infantry and armor soldier we do not recruit today is a strategic
mobilization asset we will not have in 2031.14 The Individual Ready Reserve,
which stood at 700,000 in 1973 and 450,000 in 1994, now stands at 76,000.15
These numbers cannot fill the existing gaps in the active force, let alone
any casualty replacement or expansion during a large-scale combat operation.

[Dark Hellion]

Disclaimer: Articles, reviews and replies, and book reviews published in Parameters are unoff icial expressions of opinion. The views
and opinions expressed in Parameters are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Department of Defense,
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information you may f ind at these locations.

For fucks sake J can you stop being an absolutely hypocritical piece of shit.

[Vympel]

I don't remember that being noted, where was that?

Recent example, though it started last year:

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opi ... rcna131581

President Joe Biden has long said he will support Ukraine in its goal of expelling Russia from its territory for “as long as it takes.” But a Politico report indicates that the Biden administration is quietly shifting away from backing Ukraine’s bid for total victory. Instead, the White House is now thinking about how to best position Ukraine for negotiations that are likely to lead to territorial concessions. The news underscores the failure of Ukraine’s widely watched counteroffensive and reflects concern about dwindling resources of both Ukraine and its allies to oust a heavily dug-in Russia.

Why can't Ukraine build it's own weapons?

They don't have the available workforce or the facilities to produce any meaningful quantity of 'big ticket' weapons (I refer to aerius' post in that regard). The entire country is in firing range of Russian cruise and ballistic missiles fired from land air and sea.

Also, why can't the war remain stalemated? Why do you believe Ukraine has to accept a losing peace deal any time soon?

Because their resources are less than Russia and so is Western interest in sustaining Ukraine in the conflict, which is clearly already flagging.

The 'stalemate' characterisation is in and of itself, wrong. Ukraine is clearly in the process of losing an attrition war. Something has got to give.

And, in answer to Dominus' question "Why Can't Ukraine Build it's Own Weapons"

Russia bombed their industrial complex back in 2016, and again, repeatedly, during this current war.

Russia absolutely did not bomb Ukraine's military-industrial complex before the invasion began in 2022.

I understand that Ukraine probably won't be making new aircraft, or even too many new tanks, but Russian sympathizers are claiming that Ukraine has to capitulate soon because they will run out of artillery shells if the west doesn't give them more. I want to know why they think Ukraine can't produce artillery shells, or other basic war materials that would keep them at least at a stalemate.

They're never going to entirely run out of artillery shells. They simply don't have enough and that puts them at a significant disadvantage.

Article about how Ukraine has been ramping up their production by quite some margins.

"Ukrainian Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin stated on December 27 that Ukraine increased the production of mortar rounds by a factor of 42 and the production of artillery shells by a factor of 2.5 in 2023."

This alongside with a huge rampup in drone procuction, development of naval drones, refitting their domestic neptune missiles into AA systems, and creating domestic ballistic missiles, APVs, SPGs, among other things.

https://understandingwar.org/background ... trial-base

This, along with the joint venture projects and the increasing support from EU nations is why Russia is trying to get a ceasefire as soon as possible.

LaCroix posting from the parallel universe where 'Russia wants a ceasefire as soon as possible' (absolutely no evidence for this absurd claim) because apparently they're afraid a dysfunctional state ravaged by wartime damage has increased production of stuff it produced in the single digits before the war by 'X' times, lol.

Like seriously, did you even read the piece?

The United States will not need to send large security assistance to Ukraine indefinitely if Ukraine manages to produce its weapons in Ukraine and through joint production in Europe—assuming Ukraine can liberate strategically vital areas currently occupied by Russian forces. The Ukrainian strategy to reduce its dependency on Western security assistance in the long term depends on Ukraine liberating its southern territory and setting conditions for a more sustainable defense, as ISW has discussed at length elsewhere.[125] The current frontlines are not sustainable in the long term. Ukraine must therefore still get over an immediate hurdle: liberate strategically critical territory in Russian-occupied Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts and ideally liberate much of occupied Donbas, where Ukraine’s resource extraction and related industrial facilities are located.[126] Ukraine will very likely remain dependent on high levels of Western security assistance so long as Russia occupies much of this territory.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Russia Suffers Heavy Losses as Ukraine Marines Repel Troops, Hold Territory at Dnipro River

While the advancement of the forces of Ukraine has been stagnant at the Dnipro River bridgehead, they have dealt significant damage at the Russia-occupied region.

Knewz.com has learned that some Russian troops have started refusing direct orders to attack from their commanders as a result of the losses.

The Dnipro River bridgehead is located in the Russia-controlled Krynky region on the left bank of the river.

When the armed forces of Ukraine deployed Marines to fight the occupational forces and gain ground in the bridgehead in October 2023, it was considered a foolhardy decision, given what became of the Ukrainian forces within months of their arrival.

A New York Times report from December 2023 described the deployment as a "suicide mission," and called the battle in the region "murderous."
"Soldiers and marines who have taken part in the river crossings described the offensive as brutalizing and futile, as waves of Ukrainian troops have been struck down on the river banks or in the water, even before they reach the other side," the December report read.

"Conditions are so difficult, a half-dozen men involved in the fighting said in interviews, that in most places, there is nowhere to dig in. The first approaches tend to be marshy islands threaded with rivulets or meadows that have become a quagmire of mud and bomb craters filled with water," the report further read.

An unidentified Ukraine soldier had told BBC News at the time that some troops helping defend Ukrainian advances on the Dnipro river were incredibly inexperienced.

However, as opposed to what previous reports had stated or predicted about the conflict in the Dnipro River bridgehead, the tide seems to be gradually turning in favour of Ukraine.

Forbes recently reported, citing a January 14 press release from the Center for Defense Strategies of Ukraine, that Russian forces have been forced to deploy a tank regiment to retrieve the wreckage of vehicles lost in the fight with Ukrainian marines.

"Russian forces have made slight advancements in the eastern part of Krynky. The 17th Tank Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division has been trying for two weeks to evacuate damaged and inoperational armored vehicles from the active combat zone in the Krynky area, particularly north of the T2206 road," read the press release.

"That a whole tank battalion with potentially tens of T-90 tanks apparently is dedicated to the recovery task speaks to the intensity of Russian losses around Krynky," Forbes wrote.

"In three months of failed counterattacks through Ukrainian drone and artillery kill-zones, and across mines that the drones drop at night, the 18th CAA and other formations in Kherson have lost at least 163 tanks, fighting vehicles, howitzers, rocket launchers, and trucks. Ukrainian forces have lost just 33 vehicles, mostly on the Dnipro’s right bank," the publication added.

The condition of Russian troops at the bridgehead has deteriorated to the level where better-trained and equipped paratroopers and naval infantry were refusing to continue the Dnipro assault, the news outlet Kyiv Post reported.

"At present, in our sector, the number of units of the type 'Storm-Z' is falling and we are seeing more naval infantry and paratroopers," Nataliya Humenyuk, press secretary for the AFU’s Joint Command South, said in a televised interview, per the outlet.

"But they consider themselves ‘elite troops’ and they don’t want to go into frontal assaults like that," Humenyuk added.

While the Ukrainian forces have not made advances in the ongoing Dnipro River bridgehead, the AFU press secretary claimed that Ukraine has been conducting local counterattacks and added that Russian forces have been facing more than 50% losses at every ground assault.

However, Kyiv Post reported that her claims have not been verified yet and she has not provided any evidence in support of her statements.

[LadyTevar]

I do not think this war will end this year, because as was stated, the best way to win this war is to hit Russia hard enough to end it, and Ukraine cannot do that. NATO does not *want* do to that, because no one wants WWIII and haven't wanted it ever since the first Nuke Silos were built.

So we play the game through proxies, and because certain politicians are lil shits playing power games of their own, the US is falling down on supplying our Proxy so other NATO countries are having to try to step up. Which, again, prolongs this War because no one is able to make a Defining Hit to tell Russia to take its toys and go home.

NATO does not want to do that because they'll be slaughtered even worse than the Ukrainians. The talking heads on TV may be drinking their own Kool-aid, however, the people who study & teach strategy have a far more sober view. They know what it will cost if we directly intervene, and the price is unacceptably high.

J?
You're not supposed to smoke your own product, so lay off the bullshit. Dark Hellion just explained why your sources are OP-EDS and do not reflect the reality of the situation any more than the people praising Trump for winning Iowa.

The only thing saving Russia from a full attack is the threat of NUKES.
NATO outguns Russia. NATO has more trained and ready troops right now than Russia. The US could leave The Kremin a smoking hole without damaging any other building nearby, and there's plenty of video proving the US has that ability where it's been done to other targets.
Right now, NATO vs Russia would be a CurbStomp not seen since Desert Storm, and NATO would probably fuck up the repair and recovery just as badly.

But Russia has NUKES, and as I said NO ONE wants to be the one triggering that shitstorm.

[LadyTevar]

Russian Oil Depot Hit By Ukrainian Drone

Fire has broken out over a large area of an oil storage depot in southern Russia after officials say it was hit by a Ukrainian drone.

Russian media say four oil tanks caught alight and the fire then spread over an area of 1,000 sq m (10,763sq ft).
Russian authorities in the Bryansk region say no-one was hurt.
The Bryansk governor said the drone was intercepted near the town of Klintsy and its explosives then fell on the oil depot.
The drone strike is the second on Russian oil facilities in two days.
An unprecedented attack targeted a major oil loading terminal in Russia's second city, St Petersburg, on Thursday.
Russian reports suggested that drone was shot down without causing damage but there were indications in Kyiv that the attack, so far from the Ukrainian border, marked a new phase in strategy.
"Yes, last night we hit the target. This thing crossed 1,250km (776 miles) last night," said Ukraine's Strategic Industries Minister Oleksandr Kamyshin on Thursday.
Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that its air defence systems had brought down a Ukrainian drone over Bryansk at 06:40 local time (03:40 GMT) and regional head Alexander Bogomaz said later that two further drones had been destroyed without damage.
As the fire raged for several hours at the Klintsy oil depot some 70km north of the Ukrainian border, black smoke was seen billowing over neighbouring railway tracks. More than 30 people were evacuated, the governor added.

Ukraine is disputing the "shot down" part, but whatever hit the oil depot it did the job.

[J]

The only thing saving Russia from a full attack is the threat of NUKES.
NATO outguns Russia. NATO has more trained and ready troops right now than Russia. The US could leave The Kremin a smoking hole without damaging any other building nearby, and there's plenty of video proving the US has that ability where it's been done to other targets.
Right now, NATO vs Russia would be a CurbStomp not seen since Desert Storm, and NATO would probably fuck up the repair and recovery just as badly.

But Russia has NUKES, and as I said NO ONE wants to be the one triggering that shitstorm.

Congratulations, you're just as knowledgeable on military affairs as a certain retired general.



It's not 1991 anymore. Somewhere around 1/3 to half of US planes are grounded, broken, or otherwise unavailable for use, most of the UK's carriers & subs are laid up in repairs, not to mention a huge amount of equipment was already sent to the Ukraine and destroyed. Also, Russia isn't a poor broken country teetering on the verge of failure like it was 30 years ago, the balance of power has profoundly changed.

And the rest of NATO? Well, it gets worse. How are those Germans doing?
https://www.dw.com/en/only-4-of-germany ... a-43611873

Only a handful of the German Air Force's Eurofighter jets are combat ready, according to a report in the magazine Der Spiegel published Wednesday.

Due to a technical problem with the defense system of the combat aircraft only 10 of the Luftwaffe's 128 Eurofighters are mission ready, according to the report.

The problem stems from a cooling liquid leak in the aircraft's wing pod sensors, which are used to recognize hostile jets or incoming attacks. Without the defense system the Eurofighter jets are not combat ready.

The shortage of aircraft means that Germany is unable to fulfill its NATO obligations to have 82 combat ready jets for crisis situations.

That is your current reality. The Ukraine likely has more firepower even now than the rest of Europe put together. Thinking that NATO could run in and crush Russia like they did to Iraq is delusional.

[Dark Hellion]

Chase Winter
05/02/2018

Half a fucking decade old. Can we just ban this lying piece of shit now?

[LadyTevar]

Congratulations, you're just as knowledgeable on military affairs as a certain retired general.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/42ANwWH.jpg[img]

It's not 1991 anymore. Somewhere around 1/3 to half of US planes are grounded, broken, or otherwise unavailable for use, most of the UK's carriers & subs are laid up in repairs, not to mention a huge amount of equipment was already sent to the Ukraine and destroyed. Also, Russia isn't a poor broken country teetering on the verge of failure like it was 30 years ago, the balance of power has profoundly changed.

SOURCE PLEASE.

And the rest of NATO? Well, it gets worse. How are those Germans doing?
https://www.dw.com/en/only-4-of-germany ... a-43611873

Only a handful of the German Air Force's Eurofighter jets are combat ready, according to a report in the magazine Der Spiegel published Wednesday.

Due to a technical problem with the defense system of the combat aircraft only 10 of the Luftwaffe's 128 Eurofighters are mission ready, according to the report.

The problem stems from a cooling liquid leak in the aircraft's wing pod sensors, which are used to recognize hostile jets or incoming attacks. Without the defense system the Eurofighter jets are not combat ready.

The shortage of aircraft means that Germany is unable to fulfill its NATO obligations to have 82 combat ready jets for crisis situations.

That is your current reality. The Ukraine likely has more firepower even now than the rest of Europe put together. Thinking that NATO could run in and crush Russia like they did to Iraq is delusional.

So how's Canada Doing? I mean, they're NATO as well. What about Great Britain? France?

Because I am hearing a WHOLE FUCKING LOT of "Oh, NATO Sucks" and "USA SUCKS" out of you, and the Aussies like Vympel, but let's talk about how ready your countries are to do shit?
Tell me... how much money/equipment did Canada send to Ukraine so far? I've never heard stats on that. Do you know?

[Ralin]

Tell me... how much money/equipment did Canada send to Ukraine so far? I've never heard stats on that. Do you know?

What does that have to do with literally anything? Because it sounds like your comeback here boils down to "Oh yeah, well how good is YOUR country's military?'"

[J]

It's not 1991 anymore. Somewhere around 1/3 to half of US planes are grounded, broken, or otherwise unavailable for use, most of the UK's carriers & subs are laid up in repairs, not to mention a huge amount of equipment was already sent to the Ukraine and destroyed. Also, Russia isn't a poor broken country teetering on the verge of failure like it was 30 years ago, the balance of power has profoundly changed.

SOURCE PLEASE.

CBO Report on airplane availability
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57713


UK aircraft carrier being stripped for parts
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/0 ... for-parts/

Britain’s £3 billion warship HMS Prince of Wales is being stripped for parts after a major mechanical failure last year.

The aircraft carrier broke down after technical issues centred on the starboard side propeller last August led to the cancellation of a long-planned visit to the US.

The incident, off the coast of the Isle of Wight, occurred less than 24 hours into the passage across the Atlantic.

The warship's port propeller also needs to be replaced as it is suffering from the same issues, according to the Mail on Sunday.

While in dry dock in Scotland, some parts from HMS Prince of Wales are being stripped and used to replace broken items on her sister ship, HMS Queen Elizabeth.

All UK nuclear attack subs are broken and stuck in port
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ected.html

Every British nuclear attack submarine is in port - leaving this country unprotected from Russian vessels loitering off the UK.

The Mail on Sunday can reveal that not one of the six available Royal Navy attack boats is at sea, with most docked awaiting repairs.

Fixing the submarines is taking longer due to shortages of naval engineers and dry dock facilities.

The shocking situation has emerged as military novice Grant Shapps, who has no Armed Forces experience or expertise, was chosen to become Defence Secretary.

The alarming capability gap, which effectively offers the Kremlin's submarines the freedom of the North Atlantic, is one of many maritime issues which Mr Shapps must confront. The Royal Navy also has a chronic shortage of destroyers and frigates - with only '11 or 12' available for operations, according to the Chief of the Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin.

So how's Canada Doing? I mean, they're NATO as well. What about Great Britain? France?

Because I am hearing a WHOLE FUCKING LOT of "Oh, NATO Sucks" and "USA SUCKS" out of you, and the Aussies like Vympel, but let's talk about how ready your countries are to do shit?
Tell me... how much money/equipment did Canada send to Ukraine so far? I've never heard stats on that. Do you know?

Do you have any idea how small & underfunded our armed forces are? Canada has less than 100,000 men including our reserves and to say we're lacking in equipment would be a massive understatement. If we're really lucky we might be able to field a division, realistically, maybe a brigade. Most of our planes are grounded and much of our equipment is older than I am and held together with duct tape. We simply don't have enough of anything to make any kind of difference. We can send over EVERYTHING we have and all of it would be destroyed within weeks at the current attrition rate.

[Dark Hellion]

It's not 1991 anymore. Somewhere around 1/3 to half of US planes are grounded, broken, or otherwise unavailable for use, most of the UK's carriers & subs are laid up in repairs, not to mention a huge amount of equipment was already sent to the Ukraine and destroyed. Also, Russia isn't a poor broken country teetering on the verge of failure like it was 30 years ago, the balance of power has profoundly changed.

SOURCE PLEASE.

CBO Report on airplane availability
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57713


UK aircraft carrier being stripped for parts
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/0 ... for-parts/

Britain’s £3 billion warship HMS Prince of Wales is being stripped for parts after a major mechanical failure last year.

The aircraft carrier broke down after technical issues centred on the starboard side propeller last August led to the cancellation of a long-planned visit to the US.

The incident, off the coast of the Isle of Wight, occurred less than 24 hours into the passage across the Atlantic.

The warship's port propeller also needs to be replaced as it is suffering from the same issues, according to the Mail on Sunday.

While in dry dock in Scotland, some parts from HMS Prince of Wales are being stripped and used to replace broken items on her sister ship, HMS Queen Elizabeth.

All UK nuclear attack subs are broken and stuck in port
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ected.html

Every British nuclear attack submarine is in port - leaving this country unprotected from Russian vessels loitering off the UK.

The Mail on Sunday can reveal that not one of the six available Royal Navy attack boats is at sea, with most docked awaiting repairs.

Fixing the submarines is taking longer due to shortages of naval engineers and dry dock facilities.

The shocking situation has emerged as military novice Grant Shapps, who has no Armed Forces experience or expertise, was chosen to become Defence Secretary.

The alarming capability gap, which effectively offers the Kremlin's submarines the freedom of the North Atlantic, is one of many maritime issues which Mr Shapps must confront. The Royal Navy also has a chronic shortage of destroyers and frigates - with only '11 or 12' available for operations, according to the Chief of the Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin.

So how's Canada Doing? I mean, they're NATO as well. What about Great Britain? France?

Because I am hearing a WHOLE FUCKING LOT of "Oh, NATO Sucks" and "USA SUCKS" out of you, and the Aussies like Vympel, but let's talk about how ready your countries are to do shit?
Tell me... how much money/equipment did Canada send to Ukraine so far? I've never heard stats on that. Do you know?

Do you have any idea how small & underfunded our armed forces are? Canada has less than 100,000 men including our reserves and to say we're lacking in equipment would be a massive understatement. If we're really lucky we might be able to field a division, realistically, maybe a brigade. Most of our planes are grounded and much of our equipment is older than I am and held together with duct tape. We simply don't have enough of anything to make any kind of difference. We can send over EVERYTHING we have and all of it would be destroyed within weeks at the current attrition rate.

You only quoted 1 of the 4 different measures of aircraft availability and try to misrepresent a 3% decrease as crippling.

THe HMS Prince of Wales was not scrapped for parts and is currently in active operation having completed UAV trials and other shit in Sept and Nov 2023.

There was a short period were all British attack subs where all in dock. 2 deployed afterward. Instead of quoting the Dailymail, maybe you could have gotten something like this:
https://www.navylookout.com/why-are-no- ... es-at-sea/
Of course, there you can get a much different year in review for the British Navy:
https://www.navylookout.com/a-year-in-r ... y-in-2023/

Maybe stop misrepresenting every fucking thing you are saying.

[J]

You only quoted 1 of the 4 different measures of aircraft availability and try to misrepresent a 3% decrease as crippling.

Learn to read.

THe HMS Prince of Wales was not scrapped for parts and is currently in active operation having completed UAV tri

als and other shit in Sept and Nov 2023.

Stop putting words in my mouth. I never said it was being scrapped, my exact words were it was being stripped for parts.

There was a short period were all British attack subs where all in dock. 2 deployed afterward. Instead of quoting the Dailymail, maybe you could have gotten something like this:
https://www.navylookout.com/why-are-no- ... es-at-sea/
Of course, there you can get a much different year in review for the British Navy:
https://www.navylookout.com/a-year-in-r ... y-in-2023/

Maybe stop misrepresenting every fucking thing you are saying.

Maybe you can start reading your own links. Oh, I forgot, you have a reading comprehension problem.
https://www.navylookout.com/a-year-in-r ... y-in-2023/

The Submarine Service has also been badly hit. This year HMS Vanguard finally put to sea after a refit lasting a whopping 7 years and in the mean time, deterrent patrol lengths have increased with one boat underwater for more than 6 months. HMS Anson was formally commissioned in August 2022 and left the shipyard in February 2023 but has spent most of this year conducting sea trials and has yet to deploy operationally. During the Summer there were several days with no SSNs at sea at all and this situation appears to have been repeated over the Christmas period.

The most serious problem that the RN must face right now is the personnel crisis that has accelerated this year. While retaining enough qualified and experienced people has long been a difficult and complex challenge, the apparently simpler aspect of the personnel equation is recruiting yet the RN is now failing to get enough applicants into basic training. If high outflow is paired with low inflow, the RN will soon start to grind to a halt as operations are curtailed, deployments have to be over-extended or ships cannot sail at all. Without a very concerted and well-resourced effort to grip this situation, there will be major problems in 2024 and beyond, foreshadowed by what has happened to the Royal Fleet Auxiliary which has already been forced to lay up good ships for lack of sailors.

Which is why they're now trying to recruit admirals on LinkedIn.
https://www.businessinsider.com/britain ... ear-2024-1

A new job advertisement posted by the British Royal Navy on LinkedIn is calling for candidates interested in the role of submarine Rear-Admiral, The Telegraph reported.

The Navy is seeking a candidate to replace the current Rear-Admiral Simon Asquith as Director of Submarines and become responsible for "highly classified stealth, elite operations and Trident, our nuclear deterrent," per the report.

The chosen applicant, who will reportedly earn a salary of around $190,000 a year, must be a member of the reserves or have served in the regular forces, the advertisement said.

The unusual recruitment process for such a senior role was described as "utterly shameful" by one former senior submariner, The Times of London reported.

Now kindly fuck off and go back to the children's table. Stop bothering the adults with your incessant nitpicking.

[J]

Speaking of ships, 2 more Royal Navy ships out of service after a docking accident in Bahrain
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/25427119/ ... e-sailors/

SAILORS are fighting to stop one Navy minehunter from sinking after another reversed into it.

A mechanical fault was blamed for HMS Chiddingfold lurching backwards, leaving HMS Bangor with a gaping hole in its side.

Video of the incident
https://twitter.com/MilitaryBanter/stat ... 8792769912

[PainRack]

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/sta ... WZ3iQ&s=19



Big FAFO energy. The translation is pretty accurate. Chinese man acts real macho in begining about signing up and joining the Russians to fight in Ukraine, deploys ... Then says he's dying in Ukraine as he has a bad cold, his throat is ulcerated, claims there's "no medical treatment", he wants to nullify his contract as he has a heart problem. Chinese embassy says that's your own problem, Karen now seeks public support to spam Chinese embassy to help.

[Ralin]

Whelp, that's funny and all, but helping citizens abroad when they do stupid shit is part of what embassies are supposed to do.

How long was he there before he started begging to leave? Heart problems are a legit reason for discharge if he's not bullshitting.

[Ralin]

Also it occurs to me that it would be really interesting to see a comparison to how many equivalent Russian ships and planes were unavailable for use for various reasons during that same general time frame. Not sure where to go looking for that, but maybe J does because she seems to be up on this subject and is definitely not trolling because she enjoys smugging about how she knows better than the Ukrainian-loving sheeple?

[PainRack]

Also it occurs to me that it would be really interesting to see a comparison to how many equivalent Russian ships and planes were unavailable for use for various reasons during that same general time frame. Not sure where to go looking for that, but maybe J does because she seems to be up on this subject and is definitely not trolling because she enjoys smugging about how she knows better than the Ukrainian-loving sheeple?

The idea that the US is unable to fight Russia when Ukraine, a much smaller military with less tanks, aircraft, artillery etc can is pretty laughable.

Similarly, while NATO forces can't engage in this kind of attritional war, there's a reason why the whole Revolution in Military affairs occurred. To avoid fighting this kinda war. And Ukraine is showing that in a contested war against Russia, drones work, intelligence can be shared, precision fires used, the side with more and longer range precision fires advances, firepower >>>>> all... And it's not just Ukranians proving that, it's the Russians with their artillery pool and etc.

All things that the US does really really well....



As for the Chinese fellow. Like the British guy who wanted out after being shelled by Russia, the stance of the Chinese is you signed a valid contract to be a mercenary, we can't do anything about it, you have to appeal to Russian chain of command to nullify your contract.

[LadyTevar]

AS THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL PEOPLE REPORTED FOR MISINFORMATION, POSTING OF MISLEADING LINKS, AND GENERAL STONEWALLING

THIS THREAD IS NOW LOCKED, AND ANY ATTEMPTS TO RESTART THIS THREAD WITHOUT MOD PERMISSION WILL BE BLOCKED.

DO I MAKE MYSELF CLEAR?

Congrats J, you got the most reports for misrepresentation as well. I highly suggest taking a break from posting anywhere on SDNet for a while.

[LadyTevar]

I am going to Unlock this thread, because something major has happened.

Stick to the OP. Any sidetracks or rantage like higher up on this page, I'll lock it again.
Any valid Reports/Warnings against anyone, I will Lock it again.

You have been warned.
Valid Reports/Warnings against posts, especially repeated Reports against an individual, will result in TempBans.

If that is understood, you may begin posting.

[LadyTevar]

TL:DR: Russian Plane went down, Russia Claims Ukraine shot down the plane, which was full of Ukrainian POWs headed for a Swap. Ukraine has been quiet.
Downed Plane -- Questions Unanswered

24/01/2024
There are shooting wars and there are information wars and countries that are fighting do battle on both fronts.
For the rest of us, it can make establishing facts very difficult

But whilst that's true in this war as in any, it's important to remember that Russia specifically has a long history of brazen lies and disinformation.
That was proven with the shooting down of MH17 and the Salisbury Novichok poisonings, to name just two major incidents in the past decade.
Even the full-scale invasion of Ukraine was launched on a lie: the false claim that a "Nazi" regime was putting Russian speakers here at risk of "genocide".

That doesn't mean every word from the Russian Defence Ministry and the Kremlin is untrue - or from MPs and the state media.
But they often are, so they need checking carefully before repeating.

This time, the reports that an Il-76 transport plane had crashed first appeared on Russian state news agencies.
They quoted the Defence Ministry in Moscow claiming that dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war had been on board the flight, on their way to a prisoner exchange.
Kyiv did not confirm that and from Russia there was no proof.

A Russian MP, Andrei Kartapolov, began expanding on the statement almost immediately, even suggesting Ukraine might have used a Patriot missile to hit the Ilyushin plane.
That would mean a Western-supplied weapon - a big claim, with as yet no evidence to support it.
As such talk grew louder and spread around the world, Ukraine still made no comment.
Russia's noise inevitably filled the silence.

In Kyiv, we started to hear rumours that a prisoner swap had been planned for today - then confirmation of that from a source. But no-one in Kyiv would say so officially.
Everyone we called for information told us, "not yet", or "we're checking information" or "just wait". For eight hours, there was nothing.

That didn't stop the speculation from Russia, including wild claims that Ukraine had killed its own soldiers on purpose. The supposed rationale for that is so twisted, it's not worth repeating.
But dismissing such talk doesn't mean dismissing the chance that Ukraine has made a terrible mistake. After all, we do know the plane came down - and Ukraine has the capacity for that.
Early on, the Ukrainska Pravda news website quoted an armed forces source saying it was "their job", and that the plane had been carrying Russian S300 missiles. A success, in other words.
That was later corrected, to say the source had not been corroborated.

Then this evening, we finally got two official statements.
They came from the General Staff and from Ukrainian Military Intelligence, and together amount to acknowledgement that Ukraine may have shot the plane down - though neither said so directly.
Ukraine stresses that it has no reliable information about who was on board. But it did confirm that a prisoner swap was planned for Wednesday and didn't happen.
It also said that Russia usually provides information on the route and transport that's to be used for a swap, to make sure it's safe.
This time, Ukraine says, there was none of that.

The General Staff statement amounted to a justification for firing on such a plane - without saying openly what it did.
Russia has increased its missile attacks from Belgorod lately, especially on Kharkiv where it has killed and injured dozens of civilians. Transport planes like that one that crashed on Wednesday morning deliver the weapons that are then launched across the border.
So this evening there are some answers, more hints and lots of claims. But there are still questions.
We can't be sure yet who or what was on the plane that came down. We don't know how much more officials here in Kyiv may already know and not be saying.

If there were Ukrainian soldiers on board the transport plane, then Russia will eventually have to provide the proof. And Ukraine will have to give fuller answers.
Because there will be thousands of families across this country tonight, who have soldier relatives in Russia as prisoners of war, who are now waiting - and worrying.

But wait, new Day, New News.

Ukrainian President claims Russia Risked Lives in Downed Airplane.

24/01/2024
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Moscow of "playing with the lives of Ukrainian prisoners", after a deadly plane crash in western Russia.
He demanded an international inquiry after Wednesday's crash in the Belgorod region near Ukraine's border.

Russia said there were no survivors after Kyiv had downed the Il-76 plane with 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war, six Russian crew and three escorts.
Moscow claimed the Ukrainians were being flown for a prisoner exchange.
Ukraine's military intelligence (GUR) said it had not been told to ensure safe airspace, as on previous occasions.

The GUR comments have been seen as a tacit acknowledgement that Ukraine shot the military transport plane down, although it stressed it had no reliable information about who was on board and warned the incident may have involved "planned and deliberate actions by Russia".

In his video address late on Wednesday, President Zelensky said it was "obvious that the Russians are playing with the lives of Ukrainian prisoners, with the feelings of their relatives and with the emotions of our society".
The Ukrainian leader, who has cancelled a planned regional trip linked to his birthday on Thursday, stressed that "all clear facts must be established".
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov condemned the downing of the plane as a "monstrous act", according to Russian news agencies. He told reporters that if Mr Zelensky meant an international inquiry into "the criminal actions of the Kyiv regime", it was definitely needed.

Video shared on social media showed a plane going down followed by an explosion and a fireball near the village of Yablonovo, 70km (44 miles) to the north-east of the city of Belgorod, at about 11:00 local time (08:00 GMT).
Belgorod regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said the plane crashed in a field near a residential area and that everyone on board had died.

Ukraine's general staff, quoted by the Ukrainska Pravda website, said initially that the plane was transporting missiles for Russia's S-300 air defence systems. It made no mention of PoWs.
None of the details surrounding those on board can be independently verified, but Ukraine's military intelligence said it was Russia's responsibility "to ensure the safety of our defenders under the agreements that had been reached".
On this occasion it said it had not been informed that the airspace had to be safeguarded "at the defined time, which is something that had happened on numerous occasions before".
"This can point to Russia's deliberate actions aimed at putting the lives and safety of the PoWs under threat," it added.

Ukraine and Russia have taken part in a number of prisoner swaps since the start of the war.
Ukrainian air force chief Mykola Oleschuk warned that throughout Wednesday Russian propaganda had tried to discredit Ukraine internationally. Ukraine had the right to destroy Russia's means of aerial attacks, he said.
Russia has repeatedly targeted Ukraine's second city Kharkiv with S-300 guided missiles from the Belgorod region in recent days.

Ahead of Wednesday's planned prisoner exchange, Ukrainian officials said the captured Russian military servicemen were "delivered to the agreed location in time to be exchanged, and they were safe there".
Russia's defence ministry said the swap had been due to take place on Wednesday afternoon at a border checkpoint 100km (60 miles) to the west of Belgorod.
The ministry said a military transport plane had taken off from Chkalovsky air base north-east of Moscow en route to Belgorod, alleging that Ukraine's air force had fired two anti-aircraft missiles from the Lyptsi area south of the Ukrainian border.

The Ukrainian government body in charge of PoWs warned that Russia was "actively carrying out special information operations against Ukraine, which are aimed at destabilising Ukrainian society".
Dmytro Lubinets, Ukraine's parliamentary human rights commissioner, appealed to Ukrainians to trust only official sources: "Do not be fooled by provocations. More detailed information will be provided later."

Andrei Kartapolov, chairman of Russia's parliamentary defence committee, claimed there had been a second plane in the air transporting 80 Ukrainian prisoners, although that plane had then changed course.
"There can now be no talk of any other [prisoner] exchanges," Mr Kartapolov told Russian TV.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

I heard about this, at this point it could just as easily be from shoddy maintenance as hostile fire as to why the plane went down.

[Broomstick]

I thought there was video of some sort of missile hitting the airplane...?

If so - well, it could have been from either side.

If not - well, lots of bogus reporting in this war.