UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[bilateralrope]

Ukraine isn't denying that they shot down the plane, so that's probably the truth.

As for who/what was on board, I'm not sure.

[Solauren]

I wouldn't put it past Russia to arrange a swap or hand over, and then do something to cause the Ukraine to shot it down. (i.e leaving early, ignoring radio contact, using a different plane then agreed upon, etc).

[LaCroix]

The chances are better than 50-50 that Russia is making it up. It is still possible, but the evidence is not piling up in favor.
Ukraine is calling for an international investigation.

First of all, Russia did not inform Ukraine of the plane and the POW it was carrying for the exchange, which is not only customary and has been done, every time this has happened. Russia is claiming they did inform Ukraine 15 minutes before the flight entered the airspace (which seems like entirely not enought o notify the air defence forces), but Ukraine denies this warning being given.
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/reuters/ru ... s/49158112

There is online footage of the crash site, no bodies littering the place like you would epect in an incident like this. Normally, Russia would have news teams crawl over the place to show how bad people the Ukrainans were, but no - News organizations are not allowed to see the crash site.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qLX19eF6Zo

Condensing the social media:
Reports of private people on the ground are of 5-6 bodies. This is not only reported by people being on the crash site, but the local morgue is also only reporting that number.
Russian TV has posted an alleged list of the POW on board - which contains a sizeable number of people who have already been exchanged, in 2022, afaik.
Just as well, official sources state that along with the 65 POW, and 6 crew members, there were only 3 guards on the plane to watch these men - when in all other instances, they would always have one guard for every 3 POWs. This is so highly unlikely that it borders on ridiculous.

Just as well, the plane has taken OFF from Belgorod, and has been flying due north. This is not consistent with the POW story, but much more with the ukrainian intelligence that it was transporting S300 ammo, most likely for the new batteries moved to St. Petersburg to protect the oil terminal that the Ukrainians have sucessfully attacked last week.

Once more, story still developing, but so far, it deas rater looke like a Russian propaganda hit thatn a true story.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Russia 'faked deaths of 65 Ukrainian prisoners in propaganda stunt plane crash'

Ukraine has rejected Russian claims that 65 captured Ukrainian soldiers were killed onboard the transport plane that was downed this week near Belgogrod.

Ukrainian officials believe the incident to have been a propaganda stunt by Russia and that the Ilyushin II-76 was not transporting PoWs.

The Russian side claimed the transport plane was shot down while delivering captured Ukrainian troops to a prisoner exchange.

Western officials are said to share Kyiv's doubts over the Russian claims with questions asked over the accuracy of the passenger manifest produced by Moscow.

Ukrainian human rights commissioner Dmytro Lubinets said: "We found Ukrainian citizens on the list who have already been exchanged.
"Also, if there were photographs and videos of our PoWs (at the crash site) Russia would already have posted it.

"There are not any signs that there were such a large number of people on the plane."

The Russian Ilyushin Il-76 crashed on January 24 in the city of Belgogrod near the Ukrainian border.

Ukrainian military sources boasted of shooting down the Russian military aircraft using S-300 air defence missiles but later rowed back on the claim.

Shortly before the crash, Belgorod Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov said on his Telegram channel that a "missile alert" had been triggered in the region.

President Zelensky said Ukraine would push for an international investigation of what happened, saying: "It is necessary to establish all the facts, as much as possible, considering that the plane crash occurred on Russian territory - beyond our control."

He added: "It's obvious Russians are playing with lives of Ukrainian PoWs, with feelings of their relatives and emotions of our society."

At a news conference at the United Nations on Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, saying he had "no concern" about the international community believing Moscow's allegations.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

EU ready to strip Orban of voting rights over blocking €50 billion for Ukraine - Politico

EU leaders may exclude Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban from the bloc's voting process if he continues to obstruct the allocation of a €50 billion aid package to Ukraine, according to Politico.

As the agency notes, after several years of softening up to Orban, this time European diplomats are signaling that the "nuclear option" - excluding Budapest from the EU voting process - is no longer unthinkable if it jeopardizes the security of Ukraine, an EU candidate country.

Five European officials and diplomats said other countries in the bloc are ready to take steps against Budapest, a historic move for leaders who rely on cohesion and unanimity.

"If Orban really blocks again an agreement [on the budget and the €50 billion for Ukraine] at the February summit, using Article 7 to strip Hungary of its voting rights could become a real option," says one EU diplomat.

Next week's vote on aid to Ukraine is important both for Ukraine and for the EU's message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that Ukraine has the unanimous support of its Western allies. In December, Orban blocked an EU attempt to send aid to Ukraine as a sign of support for Putin. Orban said at the time that he was willing to override his veto only if the EU unblocked frozen aid to Hungary for its violation of the rule of law.

European leaders are also eager to demonstrate continued support as Washington struggles to agree on its financial assistance to Kyiv.

For years, the European Union has tried to hold back Hungary's democratic backslide by denying aid as the country moved away from the bloc's liberal values. Orban, in turn, has used a tactical veto on a wide range of European affairs to get more money in the past years.

“It’s clear that heads of state and government are fed up with Orbán,” says Steven Van Hecke, a European politics professor at KU Leuven. “It’s time for Orbán to realize that the threat of Article 7 now exists.”

However, diplomats said that some Central and Eastern European countries are afraid to invoke Article 7 because they fear they could face similar rule of law scrutiny at home in the future.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is particularly a wild card, as it remains unclear whether he will ultimately be loyal to Orban or the rest of the bloc.

In December, the Financial Times reported that EU member states were considering stripping Hungary of its voting rights to approve a €50 billion aid package for Ukraine in 2024-2027.

I really hope they do this if Hungary doesn't get out of the way, I'd completely forgotten that Ukraine was a prospective EU member after all.

[LaCroix]

It's especially jarring since Orban has openly stated (at least here in Hungary) that the main reason he's blocking everything is that Ukraine in the EU would mean that money flowing their way could not be spent on Hungary - so he's pretty much trying to make Ukraine lose the war so they can never join, and thus, Hungary can get more subvention money.

https://index.hu/belfold/2023/12/20/orb ... zterelnok/

(This is, of course, n top of the sweet money he's getting from Russia and China to do so...)

[Vympel]

U.S. war plans for Ukraine don’t foresee retaking lost territory

Long article, extract:

In conversations with lawmakers, administration officials have emphasized that only about half of the requested $61 billion is targeted at the current battlefield, while the rest is directed toward helping Ukraine undergird a secure future without massive Western aid.

The U.S. document, according to U.S. officials closely involved in the planning, is being written with four phases in mind: fight, build, recover and reform.

What is needed most immediately for the “fight” phase is “artillery ammunition, some replacement of vehicles” lost in the counteroffensive, “a lot more drones,” said Eric Ciaramella, a former CIA intelligence analyst and now a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who has consulted with administration officials. “A lot of electronic warfare and counter-drone technology — where the Russians have achieved an edge. They need more air defense systems to cover more cities.”

Although Ukraine is still anxiously awaiting the promised delivery of fighter aircraft and more armored vehicles this year, these are “expensive systems with single points of failure,” Ciaramella said. “I think the Ukrainians are realizing there is no silver bullet, having seen a million-dollar tank destroyed by a $10,000 mine” during the counteroffensive.

The “build” phase of the strategy is focused on pledges for Ukraine’s future security force on land, sea and air, so that the Ukrainians “can see what they’re getting from the global community over a 10-year period and ... come out of 2024 with a road map to a highly deterrent military,” the first senior administration official said. At the same time, some of the requested supplemental money is targeted at developing Ukraine’s industrial base for weapons production that, along with U.S. and allied increases, can “at least keep pace with Russian” production.

The plan also includes additional air defense to create protective “bubbles” around Ukrainian cities beyond Kyiv and Odessa and to allow key parts of the Ukrainian economy and exports, including steel and agriculture, to recover. Biden last fall named former commerce secretary Penny Pritzker as U.S. envoy to lead an effort to rebuild Ukraine’s economy and mobilize public and private investment.

Enticing foreign investment back into Ukraine will also require additional efforts to stem corruption, U.S. officials acknowledge. Zelensky has taken some steps, including firing and in some cases arresting allegedly corrupt military procurement officials and judges; other initiatives have been demanded by the European Union as it considers eventual E.U. membership for Ukraine.

But as conversations and planning for the future continue, not every Ukraine backer thinks this is the right moment to shift focus away from sending Ukraine what is necessary to confront the Russians as quickly and decisively as possible on the battlefield this year.

“Whatever strategy you use, you need all the weapons you can think of,” former NATO secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen said during a visit last week to press Republican lawmakers to approve Ukraine funding.

“You cannot win a war by pursuing an incremental step-by-step approach,” he said. “You have to surprise and overwhelm your adversary.”

This is like, the third article where the US is putting out signals that they're just going to hold on and somehow employ mass amounts of hopium in the belief that Ukraine is somehow gonna be able to develop significant indigenous war production with wrecked infrastructure and a zombie economy entirely dependent on endless western aid. Dire.

Especially bleak is the idea foreign investors are going to be keen to dump money into an open warzone where a Russian cruise missile can land anywhere at anytime.

[Ralin]

So Vympel, what exactly would you propose Ukraine and its allies in Europe and North America do about this whole being invaded and partially conquered by Russia situation?

[Vympel]

So Vympel, what exactly would you propose Ukraine and its allies in Europe and North America do about this whole being invaded and partially conquered by Russia situation?

Negotiate with the Russians along the lines of what was being discussed at the beginning of the war.

Don't need to know how much clearer it can be that there is no victory here and continuing to fight until the bitter end is fundamentally irrational and is only going to result in Ukraine losing more territory than it otherwise would have. Arguments for continuing the war are based on two things*:

1. Moral outrage - worth jack and shit, and jack just left town;
2. Insistence that the Russians can't be trusted and will attack again to 'finish the job' at a time of their choosing, which even if true (and there's no compelling reason to think so) presupposes that Ukraine is in the best position to continue the war now, when it clearly is not.

*Before the counteroffensive was smashed, it was also based on the fantasy of total Ukrainian victory, even though people with a clue knew it was a deeply unserious offensive plan with a vanishingly small prospect of success. Now that's gone.

As Milley argued back in late 2022 when Ukraine was at an obvious high water mark, the time for opening negotiations was then. Now any potential deal is going to be worse given the main feature of 2023 was Ukraine suffering a crushing fiasco of a totally defeated offensive, and Ukraine is never going to be as strong as it was before it floundered for 6 months smashing its head into a brick wall.

[Zwinmar]

Except, you know, Russia invaded after annexing Crimea, which was after Ukraine gave up nukes for security guarantees. Russia can only be trusted to stand act as a bully then cry foul when anyone stands up to their crap.

[J]

Radio France Internationale (French national radio & news network) does not support the Western propaganda
https://www.rfi.fr/fr/europe/20240125-a ... %C3%A7aise

Avion russe abattu: un missile Patriot à l'origine du crash, selon une source militaire française

En Ukraine, les informations sur le crash d'un avion de transport militaire russe Iliouchine, ce mercredi 24 janvier, dans la région de Belgorod, sont prises avec beaucoup de prudence. Depuis mercredi matin, le ministère de la Défense russe accuse Kiev d’avoir abattu ce cargo militaire où se trouvaient, selon Moscou, 65 prisonniers ukrainiens à bord. Une thèse que refusent de confirmer ce matin les autorités ukrainiennes.

Les autorités ukrainiennes communiquent au compte-gouttes, 24 heures après l’annonce du crash de l’Iliouchine 76 dans la région de Belgorod, relate notre correspondant à Kiev, Stéphane Siohan. Jeudi matin, Dmytro Loubinets, le commissaire ukrainien aux droits de l’homme, chargé du dossier des échanges de prisonniers, a déclaré à la télévision que l’Ukraine ne disposait d’aucune preuve qu’un grand nombre de prisonniers de guerre se trouvaient à bord de l’avion de transport militaire.

Qui était présent à bord ? « Nous ne le savons pas », a répondu franchement Loubinets, l’homme qui négocie pourtant avec les Russes le retour des prisonniers échangés. Le commissaire aux droits de l’homme estime également que si la Russie avait des photos ou des vidéos étayant la théorie des 65 prisonniers, elle les aurait déjà diffusées.

De manière générale, les commentateurs et les médias sont extrêmement prudents à Kiev où l’on est échaudé après les mensonges russes autour du vol MH17 en 2014, ou de l’explosion du barrage de Nova Kakhovka l’an dernier.

Volodymyr Zelensky s’est exprimé tard mercredi soir, rappelant l’importance de l’établissement des faits de manière indépendante, sachant que le crash s’est déroulé sur le territoire russe.
L'œuvre d'un missile Patriot

Reste la question de l'origine du – ou des tirs. Ce jeudi matin encore, le chef de l’armée de l’air de Kiev, Mykola Oleschuk, a rappelé que ses hommes continueraient à viser, dans l’air ou au sol, tout appareil militaire ennemi. Or, de source militaire française, c'est bien un missile Patriot qui a abattu l'Iliouchine 76, explique Franck Alexandre, spécialiste défense à RFI.

Pourtant, dans la doctrine, le système Patriot est fixe et destiné à la protection des villes. Mais les Ukrainiens l'ont rendu mobile. En tout cas, c'est un système qu'ils déplacent au plus près de la ligne de front, pour tendre des embuscades.

Et pour rester discret et ne pas dévoiler la position du Patriot, les Ukrainiens, estiment les experts, n'allument pas son radar, bien trop signant. Ils utilisent plutôt celui d'un système de facture russe S-300, placé à distance : celui-ci illumine la cible, ensuite détruite par un missile d'interception Patriot.

La méthode n'est pas orthodoxe, mais elle se révèle redoutable. Fin décembre, ils ont ainsi, en quelques minutes, envoyé au tapis cinq avions de chasse, et le 15 janvier, ce fut le tour d'un A50, un avion de guet aérien stratégique. À chaque fois, des cibles à haute valeur ajoutée, c'est la stratégie d'usure ukrainienne contre la Russie.

For those who don't read French, their claim is the plane was downed by a Patriot missile system. Which supports Russian statements that the plane was struck by a missile of some type, probably a Patriot or more likely something French made.
https://tass.com/politics/1738007

SAINT PETERSBURG, January 26. /TASS/. A special expert group will reveal in 2-3 days results of its investigation into the crash Russia’s Il-76 transport military aircraft which was allegedly downed by the Ukrainian military, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday.

"All fragments that could have caused the [fatal] destruction have been recovered from the scene. They point to the fact that the aircraft was shot down by an air-defense rocket," Putin said.

"This incident should be either attributed to their poor [Air Defense] training or their incompetence of handling such systems," the Russian president said. "Most likely the strike was delivered by a US system Patriot system but even more likely by a French-made air-defense system."

"A clear-cut answer to this issue will be voiced in two-three days," the Russian president added.

[bilateralrope]

2. Insistence that the Russians can't be trusted and will attack again to 'finish the job' at a time of their choosing, which even if true (and there's no compelling reason to think so) presupposes that Ukraine is in the best position to continue the war now, when it clearly is not.

Why do you think Russia's peace offers have included terms about Ukraine reducing it's military and/or never joining NATO ?

Because the only reason I can see is that they are planning to try again sometime in the future.

[bilateralrope]

Radio France Internationale (French national radio & news network) does not support the Western propaganda
<snip>

For those who don't read French, their claim is the plane was downed by a Patriot missile system. Which supports Russian statements that the plane was struck by a missile of some type, probably a Patriot or more likely something French made.

Is there anyone who is saying that Ukraine didn't shoot down the plane ?

The questions are all around who was on board.

[J]

Is there anyone who is saying that Ukraine didn't shoot down the plane ?

The questions are all around who was on board.

Are you even reading this thread?

From only a few posts back
viewtopic.php?p=4134474#p4134474

Ukrainian military sources boasted of shooting down the Russian military aircraft using S-300 air defence missiles but later rowed back on the claim.

In literally 3 days the narrative has changed from "Ukrainians shot it down with S-300" to "Ukrainians didn't do it" and it's now "there were no prisoners on board" When the results of the Russian investigation are released it will undoubtedly change again to something like "it's all Russian propaganda anyway".

[bilateralrope]

Is there anyone who is saying that Ukraine didn't shoot down the plane ?

The questions are all around who was on board.

Are you even reading this thread?

From only a few posts back
viewtopic.php?p=4134474#p4134474

Ukrainian military sources boasted of shooting down the Russian military aircraft using S-300 air defence missiles but later rowed back on the claim.

In literally 3 days the narrative has changed from "Ukrainians shot it down with S-300" to "Ukrainians didn't do it" and it's now "there were no prisoners on board" When the results of the Russian investigation are released it will undoubtedly change again to something like "it's all Russian propaganda anyway".

I went back through this thread from when LadyTevar reopened it. I'm not seeing anyone who denies that Ukraine shot it down, just a few posts from people who weren't sure.

So I have two questions for you:
- Who is saying that Ukraine didn't shoot down the plane ?
Not people who were unsure at the time. People who were sure that Ukraine didn't shoot it down.
- Where exactly did Radio France Internationale get their information from ?
I don't read french, so I can't see if they state their source in that article.

[LadyTevar]

Radio France Internationale (French national radio & news network) does not support the Western propaganda
https://www.rfi.fr/fr/europe/20240125-a ... %C3%A7aise

Avion russe abattu: un missile Patriot à l'origine du crash, selon une source militaire française

SDNET HAS ALWAYS BEEN AN ENGLISH-ONLY SITE.

PROVIDE A TRANSLATION IN FULL FOR THIS ARTICLE SO WE MAY UNDERSTAND EXACTLY WHAT IT SAYS.

[J]

PROVIDE A TRANSLATION IN FULL FOR THIS ARTICLE SO WE MAY UNDERSTAND EXACTLY WHAT IT SAYS.

It's 2024, google translate works fairly well for common languages such as French. The details are correct though it misses some of the nuances.

https://www-rfi-fr.translate.goog/fr/eu ... r_pto=wapp

Russian plane shot down: a Patriot missile at the origin of the crash, according to a French military source

In Ukraine, information on the crash of a Russian Ilyushin military transport plane this Wednesday, January 24, in the Belgorod region is being taken with great caution. Since Wednesday morning, the Russian Defense Ministry has accused kyiv of having shot down this military cargo ship where, according to Moscow, there were 65 Ukrainian prisoners on board. A thesis that the Ukrainian authorities are refusing to confirm this morning.

The Ukrainian authorities are communicating slowly, 24 hours after the announcement of the crash of the Ilyushin 76 in the Belgorod region, reports our correspondent in Kiev, Stéphane Siohan . On Thursday morning, Dmytro Loubinets, the Ukrainian human rights commissioner in charge of the prisoner exchange file, said on television that Ukraine had no evidence that large numbers of prisoners of war were being held on board the military transport plane.

Who was on board? “ We don't know ,” replied Loubinets frankly, the man who nevertheless negotiates with the Russians the return of the exchanged prisoners. The human rights commissioner also believes that if Russia had photos or videos supporting the 65 prisoners theory, it would have released them by now.

In general, commentators and the media are extremely cautious in kyiv, where people are heated after the Russian lies surrounding flight MH17 in 2014, or the explosion of the Nova Kakhovka dam last year.

Volodymyr Zelensky spoke late Wednesday evening, recalling the importance of establishing the facts independently, knowing that the crash took place on Russian territory.

The work of a Patriot missile

There remains the question of the origin of the – or the – shots. This Thursday morning again, the head of the Kiev air force, Mykola Oleschuk, recalled that his men would continue to target, in the air or on the ground, any enemy military aircraft. However, according to a French military source, it was indeed a Patriot missile which shot down the Iliouchine 76, explains Franck Alexandre , defense specialist at RFI.

However, in doctrine, the Patriot system is fixed and intended for the protection of cities. But the Ukrainians made it mobile. In any case, it is a system that they move as close as possible to the front line, to set up ambushes.

And to remain discreet and not reveal the Patriot's position, the Ukrainians, according to experts, do not turn on his radar, which is far too significant. They instead use that of a Russian S-300 system, placed remotely: this illuminates the target, then destroyed by a Patriot interception missile.

The method is not orthodox, but it turns out to be formidable. At the end of December, in just a few minutes, they knocked down five fighter planes, and on January 15, it was the turn of an A50, a strategic air surveillance plane. Each time, targets with high added value, this is the Ukrainian strategy of attrition against Russia.

[Ralin]

Why do you think Russia's peace offers have included terms about Ukraine reducing it's military and/or never joining NATO ?

Because the only reason I can see is that they are planning to try again sometime in the future.

The positive spin is that eliminating Ukraine as a potential military threat/NATO outpost is a major part of what it would take to stop them from needing to try again. If you'd asked me a couple years ago I'd have said that was a legitimate concern on Russia's part and that whether it's fair or not the Ukrainian government needed to reach some sort of accomodation both sides could live with. The intervening time has made me lean much more strongly towards believing there's no agreement they can reach that doesn't turn Ukraine into some sort of Russian vassal at best. And I haven't had to actually live there through all this.

[vakundok]

So, elimination, "russialization" or the hope that Russia will never go for a "wheat world monopoly"? Definitely not fair options for Ukraine.

[LadyTevar]

It's 2024, google translate works fairly well for common languages such as French. The details are correct though it misses some of the nuances.

OFFICIAL BOARD POLICIES
RULE NUMBER ONE.
Use Proper English. This is an English language forum, and we expect a decent attempt at proper English. This means decent spelling, grammar, punctuation, etc. In particular, do not use annoying SMS-speak such as "ur" instead of "you are" or "b4" instead of "before". We understand that not everyone has English as a first language and we can make allowances for that, but you should at least make the effort.

Yes he talks more about not using L337 Speak, but if you want to post something here, English Language Only. You've been on this board long enough I shouldn't have to tell you this.

If this is a problem with you please see "Administrative Rules #2."
And if you have a problem with "Administrative Rules #2" please see #3, directly beneath it. Go talk to Dalton.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

A Ukrainian sniper broke the world record for longest kill shot

In November 2023, a sniper operating under the Ukrainian Security Service named Vyacheslav Kovalskiy set a new record for the world's longest kill shot when he fired a bullet that took out a Russian soldier almost two and a half miles from his position.

Kovalskiy's shot took nine seconds to reach its target, and a video recording of the incident that the Wall Street Journal reviewed confirmed that the Ukrainian sniper had set a gruesome new record.

“I was thinking that Russians would now know that is what Ukrainians are capable of,” Kovalskiy told the Wall Street Journal about his record-setting shot. “Let them sit at home and be afraid,” he added.

Kovalskiy's bullet travelled about 12,470 feet before it hit its intended target, and while the achievement showed off the skills of Ukraine's formidable snipers, the country's secret assassins have been making the frontlines a chaotic mess for Russian soldiers since the very beginning of the war.

On the frontlines of the brutal fight to push Russian forces out of the occupied, there is a strategy that has emerged to sow chaos and fear among the Kremlin’s invading armies.

In August 2023, The Wall Street Journal reported on Ukraine’s secretive snipers and their mission aimed at targeting high-value Russian commanders and demoralizing Vladimir Putin’s soldiers.

There was one sniper team in particular that had been picking off senior commanders and they dubbed themselves “Devils and Angels,” but they weren’t just killing military leaders.

The group had also been tasked with terminating the vital members of artillery teams as well as eliminating any other high-profile marks they’re sent out to find on the battlefield.

“We work quietly, we are invisible,” one of the sniper team’s three members explained to the Wall Street Journal. But just how effective have sniper teams been on a modern battlefield in Ukraine?

Retired Army Major General and Military Historian Robert Scales told The Journal that snipers could still have an outsized effect in today’s combat due to the nature of their role.

“If you’re assembling to attack and your lieutenant is picked off,” Scales explained, “the unit goes into disarray,” which makes snipers an extremely effective battlefield tool.

“When you kill a Russian small-unit leader, you completely discombobulate the unit,” the retired major general added—and it’s something Ukrainian snipers have gotten good at.

The most high-profile example of a commander killed by a sniper’s bullet occurred in March 2022 when Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky was eliminated by sniper fire.

Sukhovetsky was the commanding general of Russia’s 7th Airborne Division as well as the deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army according to Business Insider.

However, Sukhovetsky death was only one of the several impressive feats Ukrainian snipers have been credited with achieving. In August 2023, a sniper team allegedly took twenty Russian soldiers prisoners.

The Press Service of Ukraine's Special Operation Forces revealed the story that snipers from the 3rd Special Purpose Regiment took all 20 soldiers without firing a single shot.

The Wall Street Journal noted that snipers have proved to be particularly effective in the battle for the city of Bakhmut, where they helped to repel waves of attacking Wagner soldiers before its ultimate capture.

In July 2023, a BBC News team interviewed members of a team of elite snipers known as “the ghosts of Bakhmut” and discovered that the group had killed a confirmed 524 soldiers.

"It's nothing to be proud of,” one member of the sniper team with the callsign Kuzia said. “We're not killing people, we're destroying the enemy,” he added.

Snipers can become extremely important assets when frontlines stabilize according to Mark Cancian, an advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“Stable front lines allow snipers to develop good ‘hides’ and fields of fire,” Cancian told The Wall Street Journal, which is exactly what happened in Ukraine since the summer of 2023.

[Vympel]

Except, you know, Russia invaded after annexing Crimea, which was after Ukraine gave up nukes for security guarantees. Russia can only be trusted to stand act as a bully then cry foul when anyone stands up to their crap.

I don't know what's more baffling about this post, the idea that it is an "Except" to anything, the way it totally erases 30 years of post-Cold War history from 1991 to 2014, or the nonsensical claim that "Ukraine gave up nukes for security guarantees" - nukes it never owned and could not maintain let alone operate, in exchange for security guarantees it actually never received.

2. Insistence that the Russians can't be trusted and will attack again to 'finish the job' at a time of their choosing, which even if true (and there's no compelling reason to think so) presupposes that Ukraine is in the best position to continue the war now, when it clearly is not.

Why do you think Russia's peace offers have included terms about Ukraine reducing it's military and/or never joining NATO ?

Because the only reason I can see is that they are planning to try again sometime in the future.

Because they perceive NATO as a security threat and will not tolerate NATO military infrastructure on Ukrainian territory, which would potentially place NATO forces within striking distance to Moscow along a favourable (and traditional) Europe-to-Russia invasion route. That's the reason they invaded in the first place, and it was at the core of their demands before they did so.

This idea that they are "planning to try again sometime in the future" is eliding the entire reason they started the war in the first place.

Like again, there's a deal to be had here, but if people want to keep pretending Ukraine should just fight to the end they should explain how their idea of victory vs Russia is going to be achieved. Because the writing is on the wall.

[Ralin]

Because they perceive NATO as a security threat and will not tolerate NATO military infrastructure on Ukrainian territory, which would potentially place NATO forces within striking distance to Moscow along a favourable (and traditional) Europe-to-Russia invasion route. That's the reason they invaded in the first place, and it was at the core of their demands before they did so.

This idea that they are "planning to try again sometime in the future" is eliding the entire reason they started the war in the first place.

Could you give proof that is the reason why they started the war in the first place? Because to all appearances they're doing it because Putin considers Ukraine a bullshit breakaway province, and that sounds like a great reason why they should build NATO military infrastructure there.

Like again, there's a deal to be had here, but if people want to keep pretending Ukraine should just fight to the end they should explain how their idea of victory vs Russia is going to be achieved. Because the writing is on the wall.

By massively increasing international military aid to Ukraine, including sending troops from the US and other NATO countries to directly take part in the fighting.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Well trying to curb NATO didn't exactly work out for Russia, did it? Along with neighbouring Sweden, Finland applied to join NATO on 18 May 2022. Following ratification, Finland became a member of NATO on 4 April 2023. Finland has a 1,340-kilometre (830 mi) border with Russia, which upon accession more than doubled NATO's pre-existing border with Russia.

[aerius]

Except, you know, Russia invaded after annexing Crimea, which was after Ukraine gave up nukes for security guarantees. Russia can only be trusted to stand act as a bully then cry foul when anyone stands up to their crap.

What a load of bullshit.
1) Those were Soviet nukes which just happened to be in the Ukraine when the USSR broke up.

2) You conveniently leave out the 2014 US supported coup in the Ukraine led by Victoria Nuland and friends which literally installed a bunch of fucking Nazis in their government. I've gone over this in a previous thread.
viewtopic.php?f=22&t=167839&p=4068107&h ... d#p4068107

3) Crimea is historically part of Russia and damn near everyone there is either Russian or supports the Russians. Following the 2014 coup which installed a hostile government in the Ukraine, the people of the Crimea held a referendum where they overwhelmingly voted for independence from the Ukraine, after which they became part of Russia.

I mean, let's put this shit into terms that your average person with no comprehension of world affairs can understand. Imagine if Russia sponsored a coup in Mexico and installed a bunch of Nazis in power. They then start arming the shit out of Mexico and along with supporting Mexican militias & mercenaries near the border who are shelling US cities with artillery along with staging cross border raids which kill many thousands of Americans. And finally they start massing troops on the border along with stepping up their artillery attacks several fold.

How long do you think the US would tolerate this shit? Because that's exactly what the US and NATO have done to Russia since 2014.