Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[Lord Revan]

I've heard people speculating from the beginning that Putin was counting on a quick victorious war, but I'm increasingly thinking it was more like a Russian version of Bush's "Our troops will be greeted as liberators."

The difference between what happened in Iraq and what happened in Ukraine is that... yeah, Bush was partially right in Iraq (a fairly good sized portion of Iraq wanted Saddam gone and worked with the US, though the later screwups made that moot), while Ukraine knew exactly what would happen if they capitulate.

I think it would be more accurate to say that portion of the population wanting the invaders to arrive was much, much smaller in Ukraine then it was in Iraq, I mean there's those 2 separtist regions in the Ukraine but from what I've heard even those are currently suffering from anti-Russian insurrections cause a large portion of people even if those regions don't want to be Russians.

[Ralin]

I've heard people speculating from the beginning that Putin was counting on a quick victorious war, but I'm increasingly thinking it was more like a Russian version of Bush's "Our troops will be greeted as liberators."

The difference between what happened in Iraq and what happened in Ukraine is that... yeah, Bush was partially right in Iraq (a fairly good sized portion of Iraq wanted Saddam gone and worked with the US, though the later screwups made that moot), while Ukraine knew exactly what would happen if they capitulate.

I think it would be more accurate to say that portion of the population wanting the invaders to arrive was much, much smaller in Ukraine then it was in Iraq, I mean there's those 2 separtist regions in the Ukraine but from what I've heard even those are currently suffering from anti-Russian insurrections cause a large portion of people even if those regions don't want to be Russians.

And also the whole thing made the Ukranian government that much more firmly anti-Russian by removing a big chunk of the voters who liked Russia from the electorate.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

The difference between what happened in Iraq and what happened in Ukraine is that... yeah, Bush was partially right in Iraq (a fairly good sized portion of Iraq wanted Saddam gone and worked with the US, though the later screwups made that moot), while Ukraine knew exactly what would happen if they capitulate.

I think it would be more accurate to say that portion of the population wanting the invaders to arrive was much, much smaller in Ukraine then it was in Iraq, I mean there's those 2 separtist regions in the Ukraine but from what I've heard even those are currently suffering from anti-Russian insurrections cause a large portion of people even if those regions don't want to be Russians.

And also the whole thing made the Ukranian government that much more firmly anti-Russian by removing a big chunk of the voters who liked Russia from the electorate.

And that portion was armed and supplied by Russian infiltrators from the beginning. The whole thing is a textbook example of Home by Christmas. From that article:

They were so certain of their quick victory that they allegedly brought along parade uniforms for a victorious march through Kyiv's main Khreshchatyk Street, with awards for the "special military operation" already pinned to them.

In summary, Russia's larger war goals are permanently lost regardless of what happens on the battlefield from now on, and what was depicted in their propaganda as a modern, unstoppable army turned out to be little more than a Paper Tiger.

[Lord Revan]

Yeah there's a lot of "didn't think this thru properly" in the Russian planning seems like the Axis (and Soviets during the Winter War) in that their whole war plan seemed to hinge on certain things being a certain highly specific way and if things didn't happen that way the whole house of cards collapses totally.

[KraytKing]

I don't think that fully captures it, though. I doubt they anticipated this level of collapse--near as I can figure, no one did. Everyone thought the Russians really were the second best military in the world, pretty much, and the Russians probably believed it. But that obviously isn't true now and wasn't true then. Is that the result of poor planning? No, of course not. The best laid plans gone awry don't produce a disaster of THIS magnitude unless it was never really the fault of the planning.

I guess I'm saying that the Russian planning leaned on being a competent military, and it turned out they weren't. They didn't plan for things to go a specific way, knowing it was their one shot; they probably expected that they could stand up like any competent military to everything going wrong at some point. I don't really see the comparison with the Axis or the Soviets, here, I think this is a new prototype. Specifics only, mind you. This is the symptoms of autocracy, through and through, we just haven't seen it so obviously laid out for us in a while.

[Ralin]

I don't really see the comparison with the Axis or the Soviets, here, I think this is a new prototype. Specifics only, mind you. This is the symptoms of autocracy, through and through, we just haven't seen it so obviously laid out for us in a while.

The Soviets were autocratic too. To say nothing of the Axis. All of them displayed much more military and institutional competence than we've been seeing with Russia. So I don't think that's enough of an explanation by itself

[Lord Revan]

Yeah this isn't so much a totally new thing as it's a more serious case of the same symptoms. During the Winter War, Finns captured condoms and silk stockings among the soviet supplies (for the victory parade) but no winter uniforms. in Finland during one the coldest winters in living memory (at the time). Since Soviet war plans were based on the idea Finland would offer essentially no resistance.

Again in Ukraine we see troops supplied based on the idea the conflict will be so quick that it's more important to have their parade uniforms with them rather then having supplies for a serious conflict.

While the level of collapse is new the flaws in the initial planning that allowed that collapse to happen are nothing new.

[KraytKing]

I don't really see the comparison with the Axis or the Soviets, here, I think this is a new prototype. Specifics only, mind you. This is the symptoms of autocracy, through and through, we just haven't seen it so obviously laid out for us in a while.

The Soviets were autocratic too. To say nothing of the Axis. All of them displayed much more military and institutional competence than we've been seeing with Russia. So I don't think that's enough of an explanation by itself

Right, I agree with you there. It's the bones of autocracy, but a new expression. I'm thinking it must be just a total withering of any kind of bureaucracy to the benefit of personal power. Autocracy, bereft of the government that makes it fitfully functional.

Revan, I think I misunderstood your earlier statement.

[KraytKing]

The dead pile up.

Casualties are of course insignificant compared to some of the big wars in history, but those comparisons don't need to be drawn. Whole battalions being chewed up and destroyed in a single day is shocking in 2022. Not so shocking to some in the world as it is to Americans, or at least me, since there doesn't seem to be mass protest in Russia yet.

But Jesus. Hundreds dead in a single day, repeatedly. Can they even see their folly? Is this the goal? Is Putin just trying to clean out political prisoners? I have to theorize conspiracies, it is difficult to imagine this could be pure incompetence. And yet, that is what the evidence suggests. And so, both Ukraine and Russia lose, and it is the common people who pay the bill. I weep for them, and I weep for the dead in Ethiopia, in Myanmar, in Turkey, Armenia, Sudan, Nigeria, those who have not captured Western imagination and sympathy. We are damned.

[LadyTevar]

The dead pile up.

Casualties are of course insignificant compared to some of the big wars in history, but those comparisons don't need to be drawn. Whole battalions being chewed up and destroyed in a single day is shocking in 2022. Not so shocking to some in the world as it is to Americans, or at least me, since there doesn't seem to be mass protest in Russia yet.

But Jesus. Hundreds dead in a single day, repeatedly. Can they even see their folly? Is this the goal? Is Putin just trying to clean out political prisoners? I have to theorize conspiracies, it is difficult to imagine this could be pure incompetence. And yet, that is what the evidence suggests. And so, both Ukraine and Russia lose, and it is the common people who pay the bill. I weep for them, and I weep for the dead in Ethiopia, in Myanmar, in Turkey, Armenia, Sudan, Nigeria, those who have not captured Western imagination and sympathy. We are damned.

I'd seen a report that yet another Russian battalion was effectively dead, not enough alive/uninjured to be combat-viable.
How many battalions is that now?

[Lord Revan]

there's 2 things to remember first the only that gets to the Russian public is limited we see the battalions destroyed as we got free press for the most part, but in Russia if the Kremlin doesn't want you to see it, it'll be very hard for you to see it. Also there could be a level of disconnect between what's happening at front and what Putin is informed about.

[LadyTevar]

there's 2 things to remember first the only that gets to the Russian public is limited we see the battalions destroyed as we got free press for the most part, but in Russia if the Kremlin doesn't want you to see it, it'll be very hard for you to see it. Also there could be a level of disconnect between what's happening at front and what Putin is informed about.

They've been wondering from the start how much Putin is really being told by his War Cabinet. It's getting harder to hide the losses tho.

[Highlord Laan]

But Jesus. Hundreds dead in a single day, repeatedly. Can they even see their folly?

Bold of you to think Poot-poot gives a shit about his people, or that the russian populace as a whole does.

They actually think wars are won by hordes of untrained conscripts "backed up" by barrier troops. My sympathy only goes so far as "Wow, it sucks to be a vatnik. Oh look, a new meme on r/NCD."

[Lord Revan]

there's 2 things to remember first the only that gets to the Russian public is limited we see the battalions destroyed as we got free press for the most part, but in Russia if the Kremlin doesn't want you to see it, it'll be very hard for you to see it. Also there could be a level of disconnect between what's happening at front and what Putin is informed about.

They've been wondering from the start how much Putin is really being told by his War Cabinet. It's getting harder to hide the losses tho.

true but still at this point they could say "there's been some setbacks" instead "there's been several total disasters of defeats".

[wautd]

Russia's regime announced that they'll pull back from Cherson city as they can't supply their troops across the river anymore. And winter is yet to come

[madd0c0t0r2]

Russia's regime announced that they'll pull back from Cherson city as they can't supply their troops across the river anymore. And winter is yet to come

Some disscussion on the BBC of this.

1) announcement made by generals on Russian state TV
2) such an announcement is really unusual
3) a fighting retreat is really hard to pull off, and really risky to try
4) it also reduces the margin that Crimea has from artillery
5) as such the ua is treating this with suspicion

Last summer the UA was talking up their attack on Kherson before punching the North. Seems likely to be a similar thing here

[Zwinmar]

I do not think they are actually planning to pull back, smells like a trap to me I would place odds that if they are going to deploy a nuke it is going to be a ground detonation as soon as Ukraine troops are well inside the city maybe in conjunction with blowing the dam. As for Putin, he is a KGB spook of the worst sort who bought in fully to the hype, he is every stereotype from the end of the cold war. As for how a withdrawal would go in practice, I see legions of Russian dead as their generals have managed to screw up a wet dream, and they only do worse when they try.

[LadyTevar]

The UA generals are fully expecting Kherson to be mined and booby-trapped for any military force entering.
Planting a nuke there or at the dam would be suicidal for Russia, the international backlash is not worth it. Still, I can see the dam being rigged to blow once UA troops are inside the city.

[madd0c0t0r2]

The UA generals are fully expecting Kherson to be mined and booby-trapped for any military force entering.
Planting a nuke there or at the dam would be suicidal for Russia, the international backlash is not worth it. Still, I can see the dam being rigged to blow once UA troops are inside the city.

and if not, the talk of doing it in the last month means that UA will move cautiously, giving RA time to retreat. Although that would suggest a managed retreat has been planned as a major option for a couple of months.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

I do not think they are actually planning to pull back, smells like a trap to me I would place odds that if they are going to deploy a nuke it is going to be a ground detonation as soon as Ukraine troops are well inside the city maybe in conjunction with blowing the dam. As for Putin, he is a KGB spook of the worst sort who bought in fully to the hype, he is every stereotype from the end of the cold war. As for how a withdrawal would go in practice, I see legions of Russian dead as their generals have managed to screw up a wet dream, and they only do worse when they try.

From another board:

It would be crazy for the Russians to do it, this is because the 3 defence lines the Russians have set up on the east bank are actually on the lowest point down stream from the dam, if the dam were to be destroyed then their defences would be flooded and destroyed, probably killing thousands of Russian soldiers in the process.

[Solauren]

Controlled flooding from the damn is also a possibility.

Russia pulls out, Ukraine moves back in, and... the damn is releasing water. That's no longer a threat, that's a reality.

They'd absolutely have to get the release under control, while at the same time being careful for explosives and traps.

That would be as bad a slow down for the Ukraine military as you could get without blowing the damn and risking massive international backlash.

Also, something like that, you can string up a few sacrifical lambs and claim they opened the flood gates without authorization.
Harder to do that if you prepare and then blow the damn up.

[LadyTevar]

Controlled flooding from the damn is also a possibility.

Russia pulls out, Ukraine moves back in, and... the damn is releasing water. That's no longer a threat, that's a reality.

They'd absolutely have to get the release under control, while at the same time being careful for explosives and traps.

That would be as bad a slow down for the Ukraine military as you could get without blowing the damn and risking massive international backlash.

Also, something like that, you can string up a few sacrifical lambs and claim they opened the flood gates without authorization.
Harder to do that if you prepare and then blow the damn up.

Well, the Russians were already claiming they weren't the ones planning to blow the dam the Ukrainians were. How many False Flags have the Russians claimed UA did so far?

[Solauren]

Well, the Russians were already claiming they weren't the ones planning to blow the dam the Ukrainians were. How many False Flags have the Russians claimed UA did so far?

I believe it averages out to 1 per hour since the build up began. (sarcasm).

I was just thinking the fear would work well in Russias favor.

If you get to area near the damn, and nothing is wrong, the populace should be fairly calm and orderly.
on the other hand, if there is any flooding, the populace is going to be panicking and trying to evacuate (and generally slowing the Ukraine military down just by getting in the way). That would be a massive time boost to Russia.

Which makes me wonder if that's what all this with the damn has been about. Setting it up for sheer fear and giving extra time if it's needed.
Unlikely, but slightly possible.

[Zwinmar]

Well, it may be too early, but it looks like that Russia has retreated across the river giving up Kherson. I am waiting for the other shoe to drop though I hope it doesn't.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Well, it may be too early, but it looks like that Russia has retreated across the river giving up Kherson. I am waiting for the other shoe to drop though I hope it doesn't.

Pretty much everyone is expecting that, I think.