Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashpoint

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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by Ace Pace »

And straight back to the Intifada motif.

West bank or Israeli Arab terrorism
Several hours after a man driving a digger used his vehicle to flip over a bus, killing one, a gunman on a motorcycle opened fire Monday on a hitchhiking station on Mt. Scopus in East Jerusalem. Several people were wounded in both attacks.

According to a preliminary investigation of the Mt. Scopus incident, a man dressed in black shot a 20-year-old soldier in the stomach, wounding him seriously, got on a motorcycle that was waiting for him and fled the scene. A security guard standing nearby shot at the suspect, but failed to hit him. Security forces are attempting to apprehend the attacker.

The man killed in the digger attack was Avraham Walles, a 29-year-old father of five. Five others were lightly wounded in the attack: the bus driver, three passengers and a police officer. The incident, which took place in the Shmuel Hanavi neighborhood, has been declared a terrorist attack.

An Israel Prison Service officer who was near the scene as the digger attack unfolded joined a police officer in firing toward the digger driver, who was consequently killed. The IPS officer was lightly wounded while trying to pull the assailant out of the vehicle.

The assailant, Naif Jabis of Jabek Mukaber, drove his vehicle out of a construction site, hit a 25-year-old passerby, then turned toward a nearby square, and after several meters used the digger's arm to flip over the bus.

Four people were hospitalized for light injuries. "We attempted to revive [the driver], but in the end had to declare his death," Fadi Badarna, a medic who was summoned to the scene told Haaretz. "We also treated six others who were suffering light injuries or shock."

"We were expecting such an event," said Jerusalem Police Chief Yossi Pariente, who commended the two policemen and the prison services employee who overcame the attacker.

Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat also offered praise to the men. "This could have been a very serious tragedy, if not for the alertness and resourcefulness of the policemen."

He called on the residents of Jerusalem to refrain from "taking the law into their own hands," and said that anyone who would attempt to do so would "pay a dear price."

After the East Jerusalem attack, Pariente spoke once more to the press. "We will flood Jerusalem with policemen, wherever there are points of friction. We are boosting our forces, and we will return the safety to residents of Jerusalem."

The Hebrew University in Jerusalem sought to stress the fact that the shooting did not occur within its grounds.

Six years since last such attack

In July 2008, three people were killed and dozens were wounded when a Palestinian from East Jerusalem deliberately plowed a bulldozer he was driving into a passenger bus on Jaffa Street in Jerusalem.

Two weeks later, 24 people were wounded when a Palestinian from East Jerusalem plowed a bulldozer into five vehicles before being shot.

Last year, a Palestinian was killed by IDF troops after smashing through the fence around an army base north of Jerusalem, on a bulldozer. One soldier was lightly wounded. The Palestinian apparently planned to commit an attack inside the A-Ram base by running over anyone who happened to cross his path, a senior officer said in a briefing for reporters.
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by AniThyng »

eyl wrote:
How impossible is it to change Israel policy via democracy?
Not quite sure what you mean, could you elaborate?
I mean, leaving aside what Hamas or Fatah or the USA or the arab league do, and people who want Israel itself destroyed completely, how possible/realistic is the idea of Israel itself becoming a state where its own Arab/Muslim population has a meaningful say and ultimately undermine the ethnic/racial characteristic of the conflict?

I may not be making much sense, sorry.
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by cosmicalstorm »

That is the problem of the situation with Israel.
It will not be destroyed by outsiders, maybe a nuclear attack, but they would burn the entire area with their own stuff if that happened.
It will not voluntarily cease to exist to please the enemy.
It will not allow millions of fast-breeding new citizens which are hostile to it's existence into it's democracy.
It will not commit an all-out genocide on the Palestinians which would in the long term cause things to quiet down.

The only possibility is a fast moving pandemic that leaves the Israeli country devoid of people, and frankly I expect Israel to perform a preemptive nuclear attack on their surrounding area if they suspect a biological attack has been successfully mounted, or if they suspect that the natural order of things will leave them seriously weakened after the disaster. If not that, the current conflict will continue indefinitely.
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by His Divine Shadow »

The more and more I read about this, not just this but over the years, allthe shit that just keeps piling, all the shit I keep learning... The more I think Israel is the rabid mad dog of the middle east and it's the place that needs military intervention from the international community and it's leaders arrested and prosecuted for crimes against humanity and the whole place needs to be broken up and reformed ala germany post WW2 & de-nazification. The irony would be laughable if it was a laughing matter.
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by Grumman »

cosmicalstorm wrote:That is the problem of the situation with Israel.
It will not be destroyed by outsiders, maybe a nuclear attack, but they would burn the entire area with their own stuff if that happened.
It will not voluntarily cease to exist to please the enemy.
It will not allow millions of fast-breeding new citizens which are hostile to it's existence into it's democracy.
It will not commit an all-out genocide on the Palestinians which would in the long term cause things to quiet down.

The only possibility is a fast moving pandemic that leaves the Israeli country devoid of people, and frankly I expect Israel to perform a preemptive nuclear attack on their surrounding area if they suspect a biological attack has been successfully mounted, or if they suspect that the natural order of things will leave them seriously weakened after the disaster. If not that, the current conflict will continue indefinitely.
If you're going to discuss such extreme possibilities, how about not neglecting the other side of the equation? If an earthquake decapitated Hamas by dropping their own tunnels on their heads, and their successors decided not to waste their lives and the lives of their children spitting in Israel's face, the conflict would end. If handing Gaza over to the Palestinians had resulted in nine years of peace instead of years of Hamas trying to murder Israelis, Israel would be far more inclined to perform a similar withdrawal from the West Bank, and to not treat the Palestinians as a hostile power who will do them harm if not held at arm's length.
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by AniThyng »

Grumman wrote:
cosmicalstorm wrote:That is the problem of the situation with Israel.
It will not be destroyed by outsiders, maybe a nuclear attack, but they would burn the entire area with their own stuff if that happened.
It will not voluntarily cease to exist to please the enemy.
It will not allow millions of fast-breeding new citizens which are hostile to it's existence into it's democracy.
It will not commit an all-out genocide on the Palestinians which would in the long term cause things to quiet down.

The only possibility is a fast moving pandemic that leaves the Israeli country devoid of people, and frankly I expect Israel to perform a preemptive nuclear attack on their surrounding area if they suspect a biological attack has been successfully mounted, or if they suspect that the natural order of things will leave them seriously weakened after the disaster. If not that, the current conflict will continue indefinitely.
If you're going to discuss such extreme possibilities, how about not neglecting the other side of the equation? If an earthquake decapitated Hamas by dropping their own tunnels on their heads, and their successors decided not to waste their lives and the lives of their children spitting in Israel's face, the conflict would end. If handing Gaza over to the Palestinians had resulted in nine years of peace instead of years of Hamas trying to murder Israelis, Israel would be far more inclined to perform a similar withdrawal from the West Bank, and to not treat the Palestinians as a hostile power who will do them harm if not held at arm's length.
So, indefinite war it is then...
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by Grumman »

AniThyng wrote:So, indefinite war it is then...
Why are you so dismissive of the idea that the Palestinians have the ability to control their own actions? They are not beasts, they are human adults, just like the Israeli leadership. Why do you refuse to recognise they have the responsibility to not enslave hundreds of their own children and send them to their deaths for yet another fruitless attempt at murdering Israeli civilians?
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by AniThyng »

Grumman wrote:
AniThyng wrote:So, indefinite war it is then...
Why are you so dismissive of the idea that the Palestinians have the ability to control their own actions? They are not beasts, they are human adults, just like the Israeli leadership. Why do you refuse to recognise they have the responsibility to not enslave hundreds of their own children and send them to their deaths for yet another fruitless attempt at murdering Israeli civilians?
If it helps, I am from a muslim majority country and am familiar with mainstream international muslim opinion - and they'd of course turn around and ask why can't the Israeli's control their own actions and so on so forth, so yes, I would be dismissive of the idea that the Palestinian feel themselves the instigators not the victims unless you can show me otherwise?.

What I am not familiar with is the politics within Israel and with regard to its own Arab/Palestinian citizens (as opposed to the ones in the West Bank/Gaza), hence why I ask what the Arab political parties do/feel.
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by cosmicalstorm »

I suspect Israel would eventually drive them off even if they turned to more peaceful ways. The opinion inside Israel seems to be pretty positive with the idea of expanding the territory. I expect this conflict to grind on over the decades until it is interrupted by something else.
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by cosmicalstorm »

His Divine Shadow wrote:The more and more I read about this, not just this but over the years, allthe shit that just keeps piling, all the shit I keep learning... The more I think Israel is the rabid mad dog of the middle east and it's the place that needs military intervention from the international community and it's leaders arrested and prosecuted for crimes against humanity and the whole place needs to be broken up and reformed ala germany post WW2 & de-nazification. The irony would be laughable if it was a laughing matter.
If Israel wanted to go all genocide they could do that so bad. Currently their kill-rate is pitiful compared to their capacity. IS has killed as many Arabs lately and nobody cares. No jew, no news :D
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by eyl »

AniThyng wrote:
eyl wrote:
How impossible is it to change Israel policy via democracy?
Not quite sure what you mean, could you elaborate?
I mean, leaving aside what Hamas or Fatah or the USA or the arab league do, and people who want Israel itself destroyed completely, how possible/realistic is the idea of Israel itself becoming a state where its own Arab/Muslim population has a meaningful say and ultimately undermine the ethnic/racial characteristic of the conflict?

I may not be making much sense, sorry.
Depends.

Israeli Arabs enjoy full equality de jure. In practise it's somewhat more complicated. While there are Arabs in Israel's legislature, courts (including the Supreme Court) and other bodies, the proportion of representation, as well as the proportion of the budget they get, is below their proportion in the opulation. Successive Israeli governments have failed to rectify it, although to be fair, their own leaders (including the Arab parties' MKs) are often a significant stumbling block to integration as well. If the government gets serious about it, they could close the gap between the populations. I doubt it would have any effect on the conflict, however, unless you get to a situation where Israel is an Arab state (with a large Jewish minority) in practise.
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by Simon_Jester »

AniThyng wrote:
Grumman wrote:
AniThyng wrote:So, indefinite war it is then...
Why are you so dismissive of the idea that the Palestinians have the ability to control their own actions? They are not beasts, they are human adults, just like the Israeli leadership. Why do you refuse to recognise they have the responsibility to not enslave hundreds of their own children and send them to their deaths for yet another fruitless attempt at murdering Israeli civilians?
If it helps, I am from a muslim majority country and am familiar with mainstream international muslim opinion - and they'd of course turn around and ask why can't the Israeli's control their own actions and so on so forth, so yes, I would be dismissive of the idea that the Palestinian feel themselves the instigators not the victims unless you can show me otherwise?.
The question is not whether the Palestinians feel themselves the instigators. The question is, if we're going to say that the Israeli leadership is vile because the war would end tomorrow if they woke up and saw sense and stopped pursuing it... it would seem logical to say the same of Hamas, who if anything have greater power to make the conflict stop by just waking up one morning and deciding to stop.

There are plenty of reasons why no Palestinian party ever seriously considers a unilateral cease-fire as an alternative to firing rockets and training suicide bombers. The fact remains that such a cease-fire could be put enacted unilaterally by the Palestinians, would end most if not all of the actual violence between the two sides. And it would probably have a better chance than any other thing of getting a satisfactory resolution for the Palestinians in the West Bank, who right now stand zero chance of being given the kind of autonomy the Gaza Strip got because of the sheer disaster for Israel that the Gaza Strip has become.

And the Palestinian leaders, like the Israeli leaders, are adults who are objectively intelligent and logical humans, not some kind of child or animal that can't be expected to think logically and perform rational actions in pursuit of their own interests. So if they fail to pursue a course of peace when peace has every chance of achieving better results than war, and instead prefer to launch attacks against civilians which have no real chance of ending the conflict or even changing the situation in their favor, then they should be criticized for making such a decision, which is terrible on literally every possible level.
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by Thanas »

Can you really blame people for just refusing to engage when the only option Israel will pursue seems to be "apartheid with you as Untermenschen workers" or "ethnic cleansing"? I mean, Israel is totally unwilling to halt settlements and encroachment.

The situation is equivalent to me punching you in the balls and then asking you to discuss with me whether you'd like me to punch you two or three times a minute. After you then kick me, I proclaim that you are a vile person for not having me punch you in the balls.
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by Beowulf »

Well, the official Hamas line on the territory of Palestine is "from the River to the Sea", IIRC, which leaves the spot for the Jews as being about 3 miles west of the Med. coast. Which is to say, Hamas wouldn't be happy if Israel stopped the settlements, because their opinion on the occupied territory is the entirety of Israel.
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by Thanas »

That is true, much like the opinion of members of the Israeli government is that the Palestinians have no right to exist at all. Extremists will always be the loudest.
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by Block »

And who are the non extremists on the Palestinian side again?
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by Thanas »

I fear that after decades of Israeli oppression there are no moderates left in power on any side.
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by Beowulf »

Fatah is slightly more moderate than Hamas. They've publically backed away from the assertion that all of Israel is occupied territory. (Whether they mean that in private, *shrug* ). That said, subfactions of Fatah are part of the groups firing rockets at Israel.
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by Simon_Jester »

The thing that strikes me here is that nothing Hamas does actually correlates to Israel not punching Palestine in the balls.

Literally, their 'counterattack' accomplishes exactly zero to further their objectives. Attacks launched from the Gaza Strip don't even hurt the parts of Israel that are causing an immediate threat (settlements in the West Bank). They don't hit military targets, they don't disrupt the Israeli military's ability to launch raids or incursions in the territory Palestinians hold.

I can't quite bring myself to say "well, they're angry, so they can be forgiven for not doing a cost-benefit analysis and deciding to stop killing civilians in attacks that do them no good."

Among people who are given anything like a mixed historical evaluation* and are viewed as anything other than evil criminals, that's pretty rare. Even that poster-boy for murdering innocents in the name of a war effort, Arthur Harris, seriously believed that his bombing campaign would actually hurt the enemy's ability to wage war, that it was murder for the sake of a goal and not murder for the sake of accomplishing nothing.

There is no plausible way that Hamas's rocketeers in Gaza can rationally think that they're doing anything that helps their side win. The rocket attacks don't bring their goals even one day closer to success. And they do have the effect of drawing constant Israeli retaliatory attacks and the blockade, which Israel might well see no reason to bother with even given their expansionism... if only it weren't for the rocket attacks.

So as far as I'm concerned, Hamas and its supporters are just waging violence for the sake of violence, against people who as individuals have done them no harm other than to physically occupy land Hamas one day hopes to (re)conquer. Not 'drive them out' of land they have occupied recently, either.

It's hard for me to have any respect for that, no matter how big and complex their causes for wanting revenge may be. It's like, I can understand if a vengeful man (call him Bob) attacks the person who did him harm, or damages his property, or does things that are rationally calculated to bring about his downfall. But if Bob instead decides to go over and beat up his enemy's six-year-old nephew, I lose all respect for Bob. Because it's clearly immoral, and unlike most of the immoral acts we justify in wartime, it is immorality that will not bring about the downfall of the enemy.

And saying "but Bob is really vengeful and he's tired of trying peaceful solutions!" doesn't restore that respect. Bob is still acting in a way that is clearly wrong, to anyone who can tell the difference between right and wrong.
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by Thanas »

So when you realize that you cannot win and your tactics are failing you are supposed to give up and just take it, even if there is no benefit to be had? Is that what you are arguing here?

You misunderstand the purpose of the rocket attacks. They force Israel to spend money. They are part of an overall strategy making it just not worth it. Such a strategy has been done by a lot of people (see Ireland - they never could win against GB until they did). They are targeting towns because that is all they can hit. To my knowledge, Hamas is not targeting individual civilians (as in, kill Mr X living in Y). They are firing against whatever they can hit.

And I don't see the Israelis having any moral high ground considering how they are acting and how they punish entire families for the deeds of one member.
And as posted before, Israel lied about the reasons for the war.

Besides, this is just ridiculous:
I can't quite bring myself to say "well, they're angry, so they can be forgiven for not doing a cost-benefit analysis and deciding to stop killing civilians in attacks that do them no good."
Considering the relative death toll in civilians on both sides. Israel killed more civilians already than Hamas ever could with rocket attacks in an entire year.
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by Beowulf »

The relative death toll is not from lack of Hamas trying. They do not aim at towns because they contribute to military force. They aim at towns because they have people in them. They do not succeed both because they don't have good rockets (a result of the Israeli blockade), and because the Israelis have invested in counter rocket technology. They may not be targetting individual civilians, but they are targetting civilians in general.
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by AniThyng »

Beowulf wrote:The relative death toll is not from lack of Hamas trying. They do not aim at towns because they contribute to military force. They aim at towns because they have people in them. They do not succeed both because they don't have good rockets (a result of the Israeli blockade), and because the Israelis have invested in counter rocket technology. They may not be targetting individual civilians, but they are targetting civilians in general.
And Israel may not be targeting civilians in specific, but they kill lots of civilians in general regardless. And yes I know Hamas uses civilian buildings as shields. But what people see is a lopsided death toll, and some ask, why shouldn't Hamas use whatever underhanded method it can in the face of weapons it can never match?
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by Thanas »

Beowulf wrote:The relative death toll is not from lack of Hamas trying. They do not aim at towns because they contribute to military force. They aim at towns because they have people in them. They do not succeed both because they don't have good rockets (a result of the Israeli blockade), and because the Israelis have invested in counter rocket technology. They may not be targetting individual civilians, but they are targetting civilians in general.
That is certainly true though does it really impact the general picture?
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by Beowulf »

Targetting civilians in general has no military value. It is thus, inarguably a war crime. Israel claims their objective is to destroy the ability to conduct rocket attacks (a legitmate military value), and has some evidence that they're attempting such (secondary explosions indicative of weapon storage, etc). It's arguable about whether the Israeli attacks are proportional to the military value gained. It's inarguable that there's no military value to the rocket attacks, and that said rocket attacks have the intent to destroy, in whole, or in part, a religious or ethnic group (by killing them). It is therefore inarguable that Hamas is attempting genocide. I'm not going to argue about Israeli settlements in the West Bank (they're wrong to be constructing them). But intent in military situations matters. And the intent of Hamas is to commit genocide, while the intent of the IDF is to stop said attacks. To look solely at casaulty ratios is to deny the importance of intent.
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Re: Intifada 3? Kidnapped Israeli citizens might be a flashp

Post by AniThyng »

Intent matters but so does outcome. And the outcome is that the IDF is closer to effecting genocide than Hamas is to attempting it.
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