Thanas wrote:It took over 50 years to get the EU to where it is now. You just cannot take so many different societies and say "blow it all up and let's reform". It is a pipedream. It is the sort of thing nobody even remotely familiar with the EU thinks possible, except for the Neonazis of Pegida and AFD. The challenge alone of trying to recreate the customs treaties the EU has with other nations is beyond stupid.
Can the EU be changed or is it currently writ in stone forever? No, I'm not that familiar with the details of how the EU is structured. What mechanism for change exists?
It would be (in practical, not legal terms) akin to the states of the USA seceding from Washington over Obama's policies and then attempting to recreate the union while missing all the federal money, buildings, powers etc.
That would be exceedingly strange. There is a mechanism to entirely re-write the US constitution, basically, re-invent the government from scratch, but it's never been implemented since the current form was initiated. It's certainly not something to be done lightly but it could be done. As I said, what mechanism for change is there within the EU?
All the while being in the worst financial crisis of the last 30 years. BTW, when Germany would announce such a plan, half of Europe is pretty much going to declare bankruptcy. What do you think is the lesser evil of the two?
I don't know – is bankruptcy always the worst possible choice?
A bankruptcy where the debtor is able to start over and
has actually learned something so as not to wind up in the same pit again is arguably beneficial despite the pain. Putting off bankruptcy too long can result in more pain so if it's inevitable then getting it over with has some merit.
Of course, if the debtor has learned nothing and returns immediately to bad habits that's a different story entirely.
Part of the problem here is that while Greece's new government has been in power what, less than a week, there seems to be assumption they are no different than their predecessors. I am not conversant enough with Greek politics to be able to say either way, although it's a legitimate concern. However, is it that inconceivable that the new crowd should be given at least a token chance to make a change?
Maybe this is a worthy attempt once the storm has passed. In the current climate, it would be economic suicide.
OK, then once the crisis is over maybe the EU should consider some changes to avoid such a situation happening again.
Which is why I suggest you try something else. Like a jobs program, maybe? Put that 25% unemployed to work so they'll be paying taxes again?
Read my post again, you'll find me in favor of such programs. But these programs do not equal debt slashing, nor do they need it.
Read my post again – I was suggesting a jobs program rather than more loans. Greece needs help but if you can't trust them with money then assistance will have to take a different form.
I'm not familiar with how the Greek tax collection system is supposed to work. Over here, taxes are customarily withheld from a worker's paycheck, sent to the government by the employer, and if said worker wants anything back (a “refund”) then said worker must fill out forms and prove he/she is entitled to such a refund. Does Greece have an analogous system? If so, could a foreign investor insisted a condition of employment is participation in such a program, thereby ensuring that taxes are paid by the employees? Would that be an acceptable way to enforce the law? Jobs for compliance with tax law.
Besides, even when the economy was good the tax evasion rates remained the same among the working population. In 2005 49% of the Greek population were evading taxes. This problem is a recurring one and not the result of austerity measures. In fact, in the first year of austerity measures the corruption actually went down several percent.
Well, maybe some Greeks actually decided the culture that had gotten them into such a mess was a problem and decided to start doing the right thing in the form of paying their taxes?
In any case, you're not going to fix such an entrenched problem overnight, you might need to settle for incremental improvements over time.
No one is disputing that. However, no one has a time machine, either. The past can not be fixed. Going forward how will this crisis be resolved?
Starting to fix the problems would be a good option. But Tsipras is unwilling to do so, as his refusal to break up the state monopoly on electric power has shown and his program to rehire thousands of the corrupt bureaucrats who were tossed out.
Are there people who are qualified to perform that work who
don't have a tainted history?
Germany offered experts and investigators to help built an enforcement arm. This offer has not been taken up.
Not to put too fine a point on it, I suspect the Greeks, like a lot of Europeans, might be wary of having Germany too involved in running their lives. I realize that the current generation of Germans are very different from those of the Nazi era but the fact remains that the last time Germans were running Europe things turned out very badly for a lot of people. Is that fair to your generation? No. That is one of the suckitudes of war, it leaves people with unfair legacies like that.
Maybe it would work better it
someone else sent experts and investigators to build an enforcement arm? Could such a one be assembled by an international group of experts? Could a third party be enlisted to do this, is there such a third party that could be trusted by both Germany and Greece?
Yes, I remember back then, and I remember dissenting voices that said the plan wouldn't work, which were ignored and shouted down. There were voices that said austerity policies were a mistake.
And if "Greece defaults anyway" was always a risk then maybe it's time to admit that, in fact, that actually happened and Greece is bankrupt.
Oh, and I believe we are all still at risk of another Great Depression - the world economy is still pretty shaky.
However, Greece can pay their interests payments in their current form. I don't know why people claim they cannot when they pay less than half of what other nations pay.
Here's the thing – you say one thing, J says another. Who do I believe?
Germany really shouldn't get into a pissing contest regarding which countries in recent history have done the most horrible things.
Why not? Since the founding of the federal republic of Germany we haven't done a fraction of the shit.
That's like saying the US shouldn't be saddled with the taint of the slave trade because we haven't officially had slavery since the 1960's, or that the current administration shouldn't have to address historical wrong against Natives since the Feds haven't engaged in any massacres lately.
The world is very happy that Germany has made some profound changes in recent generations. That doesn't mean you're free of that taint of WWII.
(And if you claim Nazi Germany is recent history then you must be joking. Anything that happened before your lifetime cannot possibly be recent history to you).
Even if I accept your definition of “recent history”, it IS recent history to people who are still alive. Granted, they're all elderly now but first person memory hasn't vanished yet. Sorry, Germany – even if the government has changed – doesn't escape the taint that easily. You don't understand why your neighbors might have trust issues?
I fully support dismantling corrupt Greek political structures. However, I question if the current approach is getting the job done. If it turns out that the corrupt oligarchs are willing to throw the little people under the bus, literally let them starve to maintain their money and privilege, what can be done about it?
A lot. You could for example threaten the swimming pools with demolition. After all, they are clearly illegal buildings. You could seize assets. You could even make an actual attempt to tax the rich.
Who is going to be the enforcement arm for that?
Granted that things don't scale up exactly, but after 30 years of living in and around Chicago I've become a little familiar with government corruption. The only time any sort of dent has been made in it has been when an external authority has used force. In Chicago, that's typically the FBI and Federal Marshalls, who really do carry guns. Who is going to enforce the law on the Greek oligarchs? Germany? Wow, I can see some issues with armed Germans marching into Greece no matter how pure the intentions, starting with elderly folks having flashbacks to the 1930's and 1940's whether they should or not. Does the EU have some sort of EU police force with sufficient force to actually pull this off? Are you going to call in the UN?
See, that's one of the fundamental flaws of the EU – lack of forcible enforcement. You're relying on the honesty of human beings to follow the law and nothing else. That doesn't work reliably with most individuals, much less entire nations.
And that is just one of many examples. I think you will find it fair that before the Greeks ask for more money from Europe, they have a duty to do their best to root out corruption and tax their people. IMO this does not even approach a half-hearted attempt.
OK, I can see your position. So... if there is legitimate suffering (it does seem the oligarchs are sucking the life out of the proles) is there a way to render aid to the needy without it being diverted? Probably without it being frank cash.
If more money will just be sucked up by the same corrupt parties then for damn sure you don't want to make any more loans, right? So... what are the alternatives?
That's part of the PR issue here - Germany has been the recipient of both loans and outright charity in recent history,
No, we haven't. The vast majority of Germans were not even alive back then.
If Germany hadn't been rebuilt and assisted after WWII by outsiders, your former enemies, what state do you think Germany would be in today? You owe at least a part of your current prosperity and security to the goodwill of people who had little reason to trust your parents and grandparents.
Edi wrote:I think now is a good time to ask who slipped some heavy duty mind altering substances to your morning tea, Broomstick. There is no possible way this bit makes any sense in any real world context. There is absolutely no reason to disband the EU just because Greece happens to be a problem case. The benefits member states have gained from the cooperation in the Union meant that suggestion is absolute nonsense.
Thanas keeps saying the EU can't be changed. Why not?
If the EU is beneficial that's fantastic – but if the current structure of that union is leading to a problem like one of the members careening towards default and the rest of the union helpless to do anything about it that's a problem that should be fixed. Up until now the EU might have done well enough with voluntary compliance but what is supposed to happen when one party basically says “fuck you, we'll do what we want”?
You also seem to completely ignore the reality of government as it has been in Greece and as it currently is. For all intents and purposes, Greece has no tax system. They have something called that, but none of it works, as detailed earlier. Even if they find jobs for 100% of their population, that is not going to change a single thing because there is effectively no penalty for not paying taxes, so few people do.
Then you have all hitched your wagons to one that doesn't have a driver or a set of brakes and is threatening to go over a cliff.
If Greece refuses to fix the structural problems in that nation what is the rest of the EU going to do about it? Let Greece flounder? Give them more money? Something else? If something else then what? If the “solution” is for those in power to grind down the have-nots until they are literally starving what, if anything, will the rest of the EU do? Stand by and watch? Or something else? And if something else, what?
It's also telling that in terms of the aid Greece got and some of the austerity measures related to that, they chose to cut the welfare state to the bone, but did not do anything to fix the tax system, corruption etc. Had they done so, even halfway, they could have their welfare state AND be paying down the debt. But apparently this is not acceptable to Greece.
Not acceptable to the government that was in power. Do you think the new guys will make any headway into the mess or not? Not have they – a week in power isn't enough to make actual change – but will they? I can certainly see our Greek members here have a desperate optimism that could happen. I can certainly see a great deal of skepticism on the part of other EU members
