COVID-19 ongoing thread part 2

[ray245]

America is back up to 30,000 plus cases a day for the first time since May:

https://forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfi ... 7fdcd344a7

Making America Great Again.

Not surprised. The lockdown did not stop the virus from spreading from the heavily hit states to the more rural states. So the easing of the lockdown has made it worse.

[mr friendly guy]

I thought the supply reason was common knowledge?

Lack of supply was common knowledge. However at the start there were news articles about the controversy for the average person to wear masks, with some reports that it should be reserved for health care workers as it wouldn't help the public.

[ray245]

Lack of supply was common knowledge. However at the start there were news articles about the controversy for the average person to wear masks, with some reports that it should be reserved for health care workers as it wouldn't help the public.

Asymptomatic transmission make it a problem.

[PainRack]

The pandemic and the CARES act is exposing critical flaws in the nursing home industry.







https://www.npr.org/2020/06/21/880945464/nursing-homes-struggle-as-staff-choose-unemployment-checks-over-paychecks

LaFountain is not alone. As part of the CARES Act, the federal government added an extra $600 per week to individuals' unemployment checks. Such benefits may be available not only to those who were let go but also to those who quit their jobs due to the virus.



While a Federal Reserve report said the expanded benefits provide a critical lifeline to many individuals, there is concern that the additional money is leading crucial workers to stay home. Nursing homes and long-term care facilities, hard hit by the pandemic, have been struggling with understaffing.

CNA in general has long been underpaid throughout the world. This is a major problem in the US though due to cost of living in certain cities such as New York and lack of a social welfare net such as subsidised/free daycare. For LaFountain with home schooling needed, she chose the choice to stay home to take care of her kids and rely on CARES, as unemployment gave her more pay than working.



The article portrays this as purely money driven but the end quote "the pay isn't worth the risks" is telling.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/04/nursing-homes-coronavirus-deaths/

Nursing homes has become an epicenter of the pandemic . They lack enough PPE to protect their staff and a CRUCIAL aspect of isolation protocol relies on having more staff to meet patient need. This becomes even more exaggerated in the case of fragile or at need patients. While assisted living facillities in theory would need less aid for their clients, clients who are sick present a major escalation in care burden.



Note that we aren't talking about the skill mix and the chronic hard work/underpayment. Or the chronic profit driven abuses. Profit driven incentives isn't unique for the US, as most other facillities worldwide face budget constraints that end up in them duplicating such practices.





But it's safe to say that the chickens have come home to roost to anyone who has followed nursing homes. Ultimately, long term care facillities at this point in time worldwide will require accurate staging and appropriate placement. And the US, if not the world has to consider issues with how a pandemic ripple effects on the nursing homes, from escalation in need of care, resources needed and staff shortages/skillmix will affect them.

[PainRack]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlYanoVCWTM

Fauci Admits Authorities Lied About Masks Not Working

I remember early on people were saying masks was less useful for the general public. It turns it was because they wanted the resources for front line workers. Of course they could have said it like that in the first place.

On another message board I remember people attacking Chinese people for wearing masks as that causes a shortage for front line workers as it doesn't work for people who aren't front line workers. There were differences in medical opinions which fluctuate for pro mask from Asian doctors (not just in China) to anti mask, who are mainly western medics. It turns out Anthony Fauci agrees with the Asian viewpoint all along and they covered it up.

So I guess the US lied and people died.

Err. Fauci didn't lie in that interview.

The supply issue was something endorsed by WHO in the first place, who said we should not allow frivolous diversion of masks.

https://time.com/5785223/medical-masks- ... /?amp=true

In early February, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO) warned that the fight against coronavirus was being hampered by “widespread inappropriate use” of protective gear by those who are not front line medical staff, and he cautioned against stockpiling masks.

“Demand is up to 100 times higher than normal, and prices are up to 20 times higher,” he said. “Global stocks of masks and respirators are now insufficient to meet the needs of WHO and our partners.”

I forgot to save the actual WHO press release where Tedros said that diversion of masks to non medical was a problem so here's Time quote about it.

Furthermore, in February before presymptomatic transmission was available and we were operating off its SARS, just more infective, we weren't considering whether masks would prevent spread. And that becomes.... Problematic.

Cochrane special Covid collection and it's meta analysis was mixed with regards to community wearing masks and effective in protection, with hazard ratio jumping around although Cochrane argued it should be done.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals ... ore-reader
The meta review here. Argued that community studies show it's effectiveness is limited

Another recent study randomized 145 symptomatic index cases aged 0–15 years from outpatient clinics and their household members to three arms: control, surgical masks (worn by household contacts only), or N95-type respirators (worn by household contacts only) without fit-testing [16]. There were no differences in ILI in household contacts across intervention arms. A secondary per-protocol analysis found that adherent use of N95 or surgical masks significantly reduced the risk for ILI in household contacts (hazard ratio 0·26, 95% CI 0·09–0·77) compared to non-adherent mask use or allocation to the control arm.

The argument on why the evidence don't follow the science is beyond my ken.

I will critique however that even the Covid 19 study is problematic.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7177146/

The authors had data shows places which required masks had less rates than areas which dont. To compensate for factors such as how aerobics will spread virus more effectively, they then compared HK caseload to other nations.

The problem is when they compare it to Singapore/Korea and other Asiatic countries. Looking at Western countries, it's looks clear that mask wearing results in a lower R value. But Singapore/Korea didn't implement mandatory mask wearing and it's only in the last few days of the day 70 that HK caseload is less than Singapore and it's not statistically significant.

The problem is more WHO and CDC took a hard stance on a nuanced and controversial topic that hasn't been settled in medical science. BUT. Given how nuanced statements such as China found no indication of human to human transmission has been abused by science adverse public and media, can you blame them ?


Knowing what we know now and the changes in our situation, as Fauci said, people should wear masks now. But without the presymptomatic 2 days transmission or potentially longer data, you can't fault scientists for not knowing things in February.

[mr friendly guy]

Err. Fauci didn't lie in that interview.

The supply issue was something endorsed by WHO in the first place, who said we should not allow frivolous diversion of masks.

You misunderstood my point. There is controversy about the effectiveness of masks for the general public, however my point was at the time they were saying it wasn't effective, when they believed it was. That's lying. I am not talking about whether their belief is correct, only that they did believe a certain thing.

We can have a look back and see what US health authorities said in those early months, for example in January
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-c ... 2020-01-30

In fact the U.S. surgeon general recently urged the public to “STOP BUYING MASKS!” “They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!,” wrote Surgeon General Jerome Adams on Twitter US:TWTR

By April CNN reported people were coming around to the Asian way of thinking in regards to masks
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/01/asia ... index.html

If US health authorities believed it didn't work in the early stages of the pandemic and told the public so, I wouldn't fault them. If they changed their minds now because of new evidence, I wouldn't fault them. If he believed it worked but felt it was more important to give to healthcare workers, I wouldn't fault them as long as they outright said that to the public. But that wasn't what happened, at least from the interview with Fauci. It was we (the public health community was the term Fauci used) believed they helped the public, and it was more important to give to healthcare workers, so we will tell the public it doesn't work.

Would if have worked out better or worse if people were told the truth? Hard to say, as people could have hoarded if they were selfish. Or it could have driven more impetus to acquire PPEs.

[PainRack]

Err. Fauci didn't lie in that interview.

The supply issue was something endorsed by WHO in the first place, who said we should not allow frivolous diversion of masks.

You misunderstood my point. There is controversy about the effectiveness of masks for the general public, however my point was at the time they were saying it wasn't effective, when they believed it was. That's lying. I am not talking about whether their belief is correct, only that they did believe a certain thing.

We can have a look back and see what US health authorities said in those early months, for example in January
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-c ... 2020-01-30

In fact the U.S. surgeon general recently urged the public to “STOP BUYING MASKS!” “They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!,” wrote Surgeon General Jerome Adams on Twitter US:TWTR

By April CNN reported people were coming around to the Asian way of thinking in regards to masks
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/01/asia ... index.html

If US health authorities believed it didn't work in the early stages of the pandemic and told the public so, I wouldn't fault them. If they changed their minds now because of new evidence, I wouldn't fault them. If he believed it worked but felt it was more important to give to healthcare workers, I wouldn't fault them as long as they outright said that to the public. But that wasn't what happened, at least from the interview with Fauci. It was we (the public health community was the term Fauci used) believed they helped the public, and it was more important to give to healthcare workers, so we will tell the public it doesn't work.

Would if have worked out better or worse if people were told the truth? Hard to say, as people could have hoarded if they were selfish. Or it could have driven more impetus to acquire PPEs.

Yeah. What he said was
"They were concerned that PPE including surgical masks and N95 was in short supply and that healthcare workers need it more. Now we have masks, we know you don't need a N95 if you're an ordinary person on the street, we also now know that a simple cloth covering work so etcetcetc. And the circumstances has changed."
He didn't say he knew it was effective then . What he said was we now know that a simple cloth covering works and he's still saying you don't need N95. Which TBH in my opinion, is going the OPPOSITE direction since a study on that had the cloth mask arm having more ILI than the surgical mask arm,although the control group who wasn't randomised to either arm and wore either mask, respirators or not at all was N=3 for some strange reason. Don't really understand the methodology and stats behind that.

The youtube video is factually wrong on a lot of its facts. The youtube show attempted to also say WHO told people not to get masks because it was ineffective. As I ponted out, Tedros did explicitly say that diversion to the public was shortchanging medical staff. The WHO directive on masks https://www.who.int/news-room/articles- ... 9-outbreak
was that well people don't need masks, a direction they have since flipped once presymptomatic transmission became known as a factor.

[mr friendly guy]

Yeah. What he said was
"They were concerned that PPE including surgical masks and N95 was in short supply and that healthcare workers need it more. Now we have masks, we know you don't need a N95 if you're an ordinary person on the street, we also now know that a simple cloth covering work so etcetcetc. And the circumstances has changed."
He didn't say he knew it was effective then . What he said was we now know that a simple cloth covering works and he's still saying you don't need N95. Which TBH in my opinion, is going the OPPOSITE direction since a study on that had the cloth mask arm having more ILI than the surgical mask arm,although the control group who wasn't randomised to either arm and wore either mask, respirators or not at all was N=3 for some strange reason. Don't really understand the methodology and stats behind that.

The youtube video is factually wrong on a lot of its facts. The youtube show attempted to also say WHO told people not to get masks because it was ineffective. As I ponted out, Tedros did explicitly say that diversion to the public was shortchanging medical staff. The WHO directive on masks https://www.who.int/news-room/articles- ... 9-outbreak
was that well people don't need masks, a direction they have since flipped once presymptomatic transmission became known as a factor.

The commentator may be remembering wrongly what the WHO said, but its very hard to argue when the video shows Fauci saying the following

Getting back to your first question, which was what about a month or so or two or three ago, where people were saying you don't really need to wear a mask. Well the reason for that was we were concern , the public health community, and many people were saying this were concerned that it was at a time where personal protective equipment including the N95 mask and the surgical mask were in very short supply and we wanted to make sure the people namely, the healthcare workers who were brave enough to put themselves in harm's way to take care of people who you know were infected with the coronavirus and the danger of them getting infected, we did not want them to be without the equipment they needed.

He then goes on to talk about needing to wear a mask as well as keep social distancing at the present time.

We can nitpick what "need to wear a mask" means in this context, but I would normally interpret that to mean its protective. It could be he just worded it very poorly, but lets face it, if a officials from a non western country used those exact words, you know BBC and NYT will be jumping up and down criticising it. We should apply the same standards.

[PainRack]

Yeah. What he said was
"They were concerned that PPE including surgical masks and N95 was in short supply and that healthcare workers need it more. Now we have masks, we know you don't need a N95 if you're an ordinary person on the street, we also now know that a simple cloth covering work so etcetcetc. And the circumstances has changed."
He didn't say he knew it was effective then . What he said was we now know that a simple cloth covering works and he's still saying you don't need N95. Which TBH in my opinion, is going the OPPOSITE direction since a study on that had the cloth mask arm having more ILI than the surgical mask arm,although the control group who wasn't randomised to either arm and wore either mask, respirators or not at all was N=3 for some strange reason. Don't really understand the methodology and stats behind that.

The youtube video is factually wrong on a lot of its facts. The youtube show attempted to also say WHO told people not to get masks because it was ineffective. As I ponted out, Tedros did explicitly say that diversion to the public was shortchanging medical staff. The WHO directive on masks https://www.who.int/news-room/articles- ... 9-outbreak
was that well people don't need masks, a direction they have since flipped once presymptomatic transmission became known as a factor.

The commentator may be remembering wrongly what the WHO said, but its very hard to argue when the video shows Fauci saying the following

Getting back to your first question, which was what about a month or so or two or three ago, where people were saying you don't really need to wear a mask. Well the reason for that was we were concern , the public health community, and many people were saying this were concerned that it was at a time where personal protective equipment including the N95 mask and the surgical mask were in very short supply and we wanted to make sure the people namely, the healthcare workers who were brave enough to put themselves in harm's way to take care of people who you know were infected with the coronavirus and the danger of them getting infected, we did not want them to be without the equipment they needed.

He then goes on to talk about needing to wear a mask as well as keep social distancing at the present time.

We can nitpick what "need to wear a mask" means in this context, but I would normally interpret that to mean its protective. It could be he just worded it very poorly, but lets face it, if a officials from a non western country used those exact words, you know BBC and NYT will be jumping up and down criticising it. We should apply the same standards.

... Yeah... It still reads like Fauci changed his mind after he found out cloth coverings can work and you don't need a N95 mask to protect yourself.


Also, I haven't seen the BBC/NYT jump on Singapore you don't need a mask comments yet .

[mr friendly guy]

... Yeah... It still reads like Fauci changed his mind after he found out cloth coverings can work and you don't need a N95 mask to protect yourself.


Also, I haven't seen the BBC/NYT jump on Singapore you don't need a mask comments yet .

1. I might be inclined to put this down to bad word choice, but I should also note I am not the only one who sees that and interprets it differently from you since he never mentioned anything about changing his mind in that interview. His comments regarding 1-3 months ago were purely related to keeping PPE for medical workers. If he said we changed our minds it wouldn't be a big deal and I am going to say his critics from the "anti establishment Left," wouldn't be metaphorically jumping on him.

2. In case it wasn't clear, I was referring to "not wearing a mask even though they work because we want to preserve them for medics AND we will lie to you about it," as opposed to "not wearing a mask because we believe they aren't effective."

[bilateralrope]

Covid-19: US 'three weeks away' from being overwhelmed

TAMARA LUSH, NATHAN ELLGREN and TAMMY WEBBER
07:48, Jun 23 2020

Coronavirus cases in Florida in the US have now surpassed 100,000, part of an alarming surge across the South and West as states reopen for business and many Americans resist wearing masks or keeping their distance from others.

The disturbing signs in the Sunshine State as well as places like Arizona, Alabama, Louisiana, Texas and South Carolina - along with countries such as Brazil, India and Pakistan - are raising fears that the progress won after months of lockdowns is slipping away.

“It is snowballing. We will most certainly see more people die as a result of this spike,'' said Dr. Marc Boom, CEO and president of Houston Methodist Hospital, noting that the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions has tripled since Memorial Day to more than 1,400 across eight hospital systems in the Houston metropolitan area.

He predicted that in three weeks hospitals could be overwhelmed, and he pleaded with people to cover their faces and practise social distancing.

"It is possible to open up at a judicious pace and coexist with the virus, but it requires millions and millions of people to do the right thing. Right now, we don't have that'' because people have let their guard down, Boom said.

The number of newly confirmed coronavirus cases across the country per day has reached more than 26,000, up from about 21,000 two weeks ago, according to an Associated Press analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

The analysis looked at a seven-day rolling average through Sunday.

Over 120,000 deaths in the US have been blamed on the virus.

Over the weekend, the virus seemed to be everywhere at once: Six staff members helping set up for US President Donald Trump's rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, tested positive, as did 23 Clemson University football players in South Carolina.

At least 30 members of the Louisiana State University football team were isolated after becoming infected or coming into contact with someone who was. Meatpacking plants were also hit with outbreaks.

In Orlando, 152 coronavirus cases were linked to one bar near the University of Central Florida campus, said Dr. Raul Pino, a state health officer in the resort city.

"A lot of transmission happened there,'' Pino said.

"People are very close. People are not wearing masks. People are drinking, shouting, dancing, sweating, kissing and hugging, all the things that happen in bars. And all those things that happen are not good for COVID-19.''

Although he asked health officials to renew calls for people to wear masks and keep their distance, Gov. Ron DeSantis has not signalled he will retreat from reopening the state after three months of shutdowns that have damaged the economy.

Dr. Michael Ryan, the World Health Organisation's emergencies chief, said that the outbreak is "definitely accelerating'' in the US and a number of other countries, dismissing the notion that the record daily levels of new COVID-19 cases simply reflect more testing. He noted that numerous countries have noted marked increases in hospital admissions and deaths.

"The epidemic is now peaking or moving towards a peak in a number of large countries," he warned.

Arizona, in particular, is seeing disturbing trends in several benchmarks, including the percentage of tests that prove positive for the virus. Arizona's is the highest in the nation.

The state's positive test rate is at a seven-day average of 20.4%, well above the national average of 8.4 per cent and the 10 per cent level that public health officials say is a problem.

When the positive test rate rises, it means that an outbreak is worsening - not just that more people are getting tested.

At Maryland's Fort Washington Medical Centre on the outskirts of the nation's capital, workers described a scramble to find new beds, heartbreaking interactions with family members of critically ill patients and their frustration with Americans who do not believe the coronavirus threat is real.

"Everybody is out lounging on the beaches. Just thinking that it's over. And it's not,'' respiratory therapist Kevin Cole said.

"It's far from being over. And unfortunately, it's those people that keep we'll keep this pandemic going.''

Meanwhile, New York City, once the most lethal hot spot in the US, lifted more of its restrictions Monday, moving a big step closer to normal.

Eve Gonzalez, a 27-year-old food industry worker in New York whose job had not yet resumed, said it was too soon: "I'm dying to go out, but people's health is more important."

Nine million people have been confirmed infected by the virus worldwide and about 470,000 have died, according to Johns Hopkins, though experts say the actual numbers are much higher because of limited testing and cases in which patients had no symptoms.

Amid the global surge, the head of WHO warned that world leaders must not politicize the outbreak but unite to fight it.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who has faced criticism from US President Donald Trump, said during a video conference for the Dubai-based World Government Summit that it took over three months for the world to see 1 million confirmed infections, but just eight days to see the most recent 1 million cases.

Tedros did not mention Trump by name or his determination to pull the United States out of the UN health agency but warned against "politicising'' the pandemic.

"The greatest threat we face now is not the virus itself, it's the lack of global solidarity and global leadership,'' he said. "We cannot defeat this pandemic with a divided world.''

Trump has criticised the WHO for its early response to the outbreak and what he considers its excessive praise of China, where the outbreak began, though his own administration's response in the US has come under attack. Trump has threatened to end all US funding for the WHO.

Companies around the world are racing to find a vaccine, and there is fierce debate over how to make sure it is distributed fairly. WHO's special envoy on COVID-19, Dr. David Nabarro, said he believes it will be "2 1/2 years until there will be vaccine for everybody in the world.''

India's health care system has been slammed by the virus. The country's caseload climbed by nearly 15,000 Monday to over 425,000, with more than 13,000 deaths.

After easing a nationwide lockdown, the Indian government in recent weeks ran special trains to return thousands of migrant workers to their home villages.

In Pakistan, infections are accelerating and hospitals are having to turn away patients, with new cases up to 6,800 a day.

The government has relaxed its coronavirus restrictions, hoping to salvage a near-collapsed economy in the country of 220 million people.

AP

I hope this three week prediction proves to be pessimistic.

Also, 2 1/2 years until there is enough vaccine for everybody. There will be a period between the vaccine passing all the testing and enough being produced to vaccinate everybody. Which countries should be prioritized ?

Which countries will be prioritized ?

[PainRack]

... Yeah... It still reads like Fauci changed his mind after he found out cloth coverings can work and you don't need a N95 mask to protect yourself.


Also, I haven't seen the BBC/NYT jump on Singapore you don't need a mask comments yet .

1. I might be inclined to put this down to bad word choice, but I should also note I am not the only one who sees that and interprets it differently from you since he never mentioned anything about changing his mind in that interview. His comments regarding 1-3 months ago were purely related to keeping PPE for medical workers. If he said we changed our minds it wouldn't be a big deal and I am going to say his critics from the "anti establishment Left," wouldn't be metaphorically jumping on him.

2. In case it wasn't clear, I was referring to "not wearing a mask even though they work because we want to preserve them for medics AND we will lie to you about it," as opposed to "not wearing a mask because we believe they aren't effective."

Sure:)

In other news
https://www.npr.org/2020/06/22/88160567 ... screenings

The White House is scaling back temperature checks for those entering the complex as tents stationed along the north entrance to the building for conducting screenings were removed Monday morning.

White House deputy press secretary Judd Deere said the move follows Washington, D.C.'s entry into phase two of reopening.

"In addition to social distancing, hand sanitizer, regular deep cleaning of all work spaces, and voluntary facial coverings, every staff member and guest in close proximity to the president and vice president is still being temperature checked, asked symptom histories, and tested for COVID-19," Deere's statement said.

For months, visitors were required to answer questions about their health and undergo a temperature check before entering the White House.

The shift comes two days after six campaign staffers tested positive for the coronavirus ahead of President Trump's Saturday rally in Tulsa, Okla.

Trump is tempting the devil again. That or he truly pledged his soul to Nurgle and is welcoming of all Papa Nurgle gifts.

[The Romulan Republic]

I'm amazed the orange fuck hasn't gotten covid yet. But then, consequences always seem to just slide off of him. His deal with the Devil must have been really good.

[Ralin]

He's a notorious germophobe who probably washes and sanitizes his hands at every opportunity. He also has the best of medical care, and yeah I know he's more than arrogant enough to ignore his doctors but that still helps. And it's well established that he is an extremely lucky man.

[madd0ct0r]

Article from Western immigrant worker in Vietnam

https://medium.com/@stevejacksonHN/covi ... 932a71012d

[The Romulan Republic]

The EU is starting to reopen their borders, but keep a travel ban in place indefinitely for the following countries:

Russia.

Brazil.

The United States.

https://nytimes.com/2020/06/23/world/eu ... l-ban.html

[mr friendly guy]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-slow ... -dont-kid/

Trump says he wasn't joking about testing slowdown: "I don't kid"
BY GRACE SEGERS

UPDATED ON: JUNE 23, 2020 / 2:21 PM / CBS NEWS

Washington — President Trump doubled down on his recent comments about ordering his administration to slow down coronavirus testing, contradicting several White House officials who defended his remarks by claiming they were made in jest.

During a campaign rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, on Saturday, Mr. Trump said, "When you do testing to that extent you're going to find more people, you're going to find cases. So I said to my people, 'Slow the testing down, please.' They test and they test. We got tests for people who don't know what's going on."

A White House official argued to CBS News after the rally that Mr. Trump's comments were "in jest," and Vice President Mike Pence told the nation's governors in a call Monday that the president was making a "passing observation." White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said Sunday that Mr. Trump's remarks were "tongue-in-cheek." Acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf told "Face the Nation" he knew of no directive from the president to slow down testing.

But when asked by CBS News' Weijia Jiang on Tuesday if he was kidding when he made those remarks, Mr. Trump replied, "I don't kid."

[PainRack]

Regarding the 30,000 cases, WHO now says America is back to sustained community transmission and hasn't reached its peak yet

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/24/who ... ricas.html



I have nothing to say.

[mr friendly guy]

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... 0-n1232134

CDC says COVID-19 cases in U.S. may be 10 times higher than reported
The estimate comes from a nationwide look at antibody tests.

June 26, 2020, 1:28 AM AWST / Updated June 26, 2020, 5:16 AM AWST
By Erika Edwards
The true number of Americans who've been infected with COVID-19 may top 20 million, according to new estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"Our best estimate right now is that for every case that's reported, there actually are 10 other infections," CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield said on a call with reporters Thursday.

Full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak

The assessment comes from looking at blood samples across the country for the presence of antibodies to the virus. For every confirmed case of COVID-19, 10 more people had antibodies, Redfield said, referring to proteins in the blood that indicate whether a person's immune system has previously fought off the coronavirus.

Those samples aren't just from people who have had antibody testing. They also come from testing performed on donated blood at blood banks or from other laboratory testing of blood.

Currently, there are 2.3 million COVID-19 cases reported in the U.S. The CDC's new estimate pushes the actual number of coronavirus cases up to at least 23 million.

-----

I cut out the pertinent parts of the article, but others can click on the link and read the rest.

[mr friendly guy]

An older article, but one which I think needs to be considered.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/coro ... ?r=US&IR=T

There is a shortage of vials for the vaccines. Summary of the points.
1. Vials have to be specially made to allow storage under various conditions.
2. In late April there was estimated around 200 million vials available. The world's population is 7.5 billion. That is also assuming its just a single dose vaccine. Some vaccines like hepatitis B for example requires 3 doses.

3. (my own point) - who is willing to invest in billions of vials required and take the risk that the vaccine fails? Because we better get a move on to have the number of vials when a vaccine comes out.

4. From the article

In a whistleblower complaint publicly released Tuesday, Dr. Rick Bright – who was recently fired as the head of the US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) – said he had warned the Department of Health and Human Services of a “critical shortage” of glass vials.

“It could take up to two years to produce enough vials for US vaccine needs,” Bright said, according to the complaint.

[PainRack]

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... 0-n1232134

CDC says COVID-19 cases in U.S. may be 10 times higher than reported
The estimate comes from a nationwide look at antibody tests.

June 26, 2020, 1:28 AM AWST / Updated June 26, 2020, 5:16 AM AWST
By Erika Edwards
The true number of Americans who've been infected with COVID-19 may top 20 million, according to new estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"Our best estimate right now is that for every case that's reported, there actually are 10 other infections," CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield said on a call with reporters Thursday.

Full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak

The assessment comes from looking at blood samples across the country for the presence of antibodies to the virus. For every confirmed case of COVID-19, 10 more people had antibodies, Redfield said, referring to proteins in the blood that indicate whether a person's immune system has previously fought off the coronavirus.

Those samples aren't just from people who have had antibody testing. They also come from testing performed on donated blood at blood banks or from other laboratory testing of blood.

Currently, there are 2.3 million COVID-19 cases reported in the U.S. The CDC's new estimate pushes the actual number of coronavirus cases up to at least 23 million.

-----

I cut out the pertinent parts of the article, but others can click on the link and read the rest.

I don't trust Robert Redfield proclaimation, especially since the CDC hasn't produced the data and their own guidelines say that

Minimize false positive results by choosing an antibody test with high specificity and by testing populations and people who are likely to have had COVID-19. When testing people who live in an area where not many people have had COVID-19, consider using a second antibody test in addition to the first to better understand whether the initial result may have been a false positive.

In most of the country, including areas that have been heavily impacted, the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibody is expected to be low, ranging from <5% to 25%, so that testing at this point might result in relatively more false positive results and fewer false-negative results.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... lines.html

Anything that sounds positive coming out of a Trump appointee should be viewed with suspicion unless they actually produce the data.

An older article, but one which I think needs to be considered.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/coro ... ?r=US&IR=T

There is a shortage of vials for the vaccines. Summary of the points.
1. Vials have to be specially made to allow storage under various conditions.
2. In late April there was estimated around 200 million vials available. The world's population is 7.5 billion. That is also assuming its just a single dose vaccine. Some vaccines like hepatitis B for example requires 3 doses.

3. (my own point) - who is willing to invest in billions of vials required and take the risk that the vaccine fails? Because we better get a move on to have the number of vials when a vaccine comes out.

4. From the article

In a whistleblower complaint publicly released Tuesday, Dr. Rick Bright – who was recently fired as the head of the US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) – said he had warned the Department of Health and Human Services of a “critical shortage” of glass vials.

“It could take up to two years to produce enough vials for US vaccine needs,” Bright said, according to the complaint.

And as an interesting corrollary
https://www.propublica.org/article/the- ... da-bottles

Since May, the Trump administration has paid a fledgling Texas company $7.3 million for test tubes needed in tracking the spread of the coronavirus nationwide. But, instead of the standard vials, Fillakit LLC has supplied plastic tubes made for bottling soda, which state health officials say are unusable.

The state officials say that these “preforms,” which are designed to be expanded with heat and pressure into 2-liter soda bottles, don’t fit the racks used in laboratory analysis of test samples. Even if the bottles were the right size, experts say, the company’s process likely contaminated the tubes and could yield false test results. Fillakit employees, some not wearing masks, gathered the miniature soda bottles with snow shovels and dumped them into plastic bins before squirting saline into them, all in the open air, according to former employees and ProPublica’s observation of the company’s operations.

“It wasn’t even clean, let alone sterile,” said Teresa Green, a retired science teacher who worked at Fillakit’s makeshift warehouse outside of Houston for two weeks before leaving out of frustration.

[mr friendly guy]

https://www.catalannews.com/society-sci ... march-2019

SARS-CoV-2 detected in Barcelona water study from March 2019
Research led by University of Barcelona shows Covid-19 in Catalonia a year before first case confirmed
SHARE 26 June 2020 05:32 PM byACN | Barcelona
A study led by the University of Barcelona (UB) has detected the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater samples from Barcelona on March 12, 2019.

The results of the research, published on the medical research website medRxiv, would indicate that the virus was present long before any case of Covid-19 was discovered, the university reports.

The research is part of a project on the coronavirus that aims to detect it in wastewater to facilitate the adoption of early measures. The results come from the analysis of frozen samples, showing the virus present in the water on January 15 this year but also in a sample from March 2019, although at "very low" levels.

Although Covid-19 is a respiratory disease, it has been shown that there are large amounts of the coronavirus genome in feces, which subsequently reach wastewater. This makes wastewater-based epidemiology a potential tool for early warning of virus circulation in the population, especially important given the numbers of asymptomatic or presymptomatic people.

Since 13 April, researchers have been analyzing samples obtained at two large wastewater treatment plants in Barcelona. The professor of the Faculty of Biology at the UB and coordinator of the work, Albert Bosch, explained that the levels of the genome of SARS-CoV-2 coincided "clearly" with the evolution of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the population.

Subsequently, the researchers analyzed frozen samples from the months prior to the confirmation of cases among citizens. These analyses revealed the growing appearance of SARS-CoV-2 genomes between early January and early March this year, advancing the chronology of the arrival of the coronavirus in Spain.

The presence of viruses was already detected on January 15, 41 days before the declaration of the first case, which was reported on February 25.

The researchers pointed out that the results show the validity of wastewater monitoring. Bosch has claimed that those infected with Covid-19 could have been erroneously assigned as common flu diagnoses in primary care, "contributing to community transmission before public health measures were taken."

Bosch, who is also president of the Spanish Society of Virology, stated that in the specific case of Barcelona, "having detected the spread of SARS-CoV-2 a month in advance would have allowed a better response to the pandemic."

These results prompted the researchers to analyze frozen samples between January 2018 and December 2019 and that was when they detected the presence of SARS-CoV-2 genomes in March 2019.

"All samples were negative, with the exception of March 12, 2019, where SARS-CoV-2 levels were very low but clearly positive for PCR and also using two different targets," the researcher explained.

He added that Barcelona receives many visitors and considered it "more than likely" that a similar situation has occurred in other parts of the world. “Since most cases of Covid-19 show flu-like symptoms, the former should have been masked as undiagnosed flu cases,” he concluded.

Catalan president: 'health and lives first'

Meanwhile, and following news of recent Covid-19 outbreaks in Catalonia, president Quim Torra affirmed on Friday that his government would not hesitate to put in place stricter measures in the future if necessary: "We will not hesitate to make any decision that must be made. The Catalan government always puts people’s health and lives first "

This is interesting since scientist think given the rate of mutation the virus is most probably only as old as September 2019. Apparently the University of Barcelona detected it from samples way earlier in March 2019. I am inclined to think its an error but they said they used two different targets to test it. Also confusing it was only detected in that one month, so they think it could have been a foreign visitor. Yet the infection didn't spread. Maybe the foreign visitor had flu like symptoms and didn't go out much preferring to stay in the hotel. In any event we already know the virus had spread earlier than when China first detected an atypical pneumonia case on December 26 2019.

[PainRack]

1. I might be inclined to put this down to bad word choice, but I should also note I am not the only one who sees that and interprets it differently from you since he never mentioned anything about changing his mind in that interview. His comments regarding 1-3 months ago were purely related to keeping PPE for medical workers. If he said we changed our minds it wouldn't be a big deal and I am going to say his critics from the "anti establishment Left," wouldn't be metaphorically jumping on him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sqex07kJhzU
I was wrong, you were right.

Dr Fauci testimony to R David McKnightly here says that the key was the paucity of equipment. IT might still be bad word choice since R David McKnightly was deliberately trying to lead the argument to exonerate Trump by blaming Fauci, from Trump is treated unfairly to it was Fauci fault that Trump isn't telling people to wear trump. Ditto to his early statement captured on Cspan that Trump is the one that's somehow generating a vaccine so fast but its CNN fault, so, Fauci contradicting Trump is enough to be bad. Mcknightly cutting him off when he's explaining it is obvious enough to have him pissed.


https://www.c-span.org/video/?473229-1/ ... e-pandemic

The section is............. clearly McKnightly trying to fish for comments to attack Democrats or the Media and that Trump is right as said by Fauci/Redfield, we were wrong.

[The Romulan Republic]

Hand sanitizers recalled due to containing methanol:

https://cbc.ca/news/canada/british-colu ... -1.5630179

The B.C. Centre for Disease Control is advising people not to use hand sanitizer products manufactured by Eskbiochem SA de CV in Mexico, due to the potential presence of methanol (wood alcohol), a substance that is toxic if ingested.

Methanol, when absorbed through the skin or ingested can cause nausea, vomiting, headache, blurred vision, permanent blindness, seizures, coma, and is potentially life threatening, according to the BCCDC.

People most at risk of ingesting hand sanitizer include children, people with dementia, and people using it as a substitute for alcohol.

The warning follows a similar advisory from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration last week about the possible presence of methanol in products from the same company.

The list of recalled products by the FDA are:

All-Clean Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-002-01)
Esk Biochem Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-007-01)
CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 75% Alcohol (NDC: 74589-008-04)
Lavar 70 Gel Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-006-01)
The Good Gel Antibacterial Gel Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-010-10)
CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 80% Alcohol (NDC: 74589-005-03)
CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 75% Alcohol (NDC: 74589-009-01)
CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 80% Alcohol (NDC: 74589-003-01)
Saniderm Advanced Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-001-01)
Consumers are advised to dispose of the product immediately in hazardous waste containers, rather than flushing or pouring the product down the drain.

Health Canada recalls some hand sanitizers over industrial-grade ethanol content
There have been no reported illnesses connected to the products in B.C. but the province's Drug and Poison Information Centre has received four calls from people reporting they had products from the recall list.

If you think someone has swallowed any amount of hand sanitizer, BCCDC advises you to call your local poison control centre or the B.C. Drug and Poison Information Centre at 1-800-567-8911.

[mr friendly guy]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-30/ ... s/12384966

Anders Tegnell, the man behind Sweden's contentious coronavirus plan, has a legion of fans — and critics
Foreign Correspondent / By Mark Corcoran and Bronwen Reed
Posted 13hhours ago, updated 10hhours ago
Swedes gather in the sun around a lake.
Summer in Stockholm ... it's "lockdown lite". Sweden's strategy for fighting coronavirus has been based around individual responsibility.(Reuters: Stina Stjernkvist)
Share


As the architect of Sweden's controversial COVID-19 strategy, Anders Tegnell is a scientist with security.

Sweden's chief epidemiologist routinely walks the short distance through Stockholm's streets from his office to the Health Ministry Press Centre, flanked by two no-nonsense men with earpieces.

He's become a deeply polarising figure in the global debate on how best to combat coronavirus.

Anders Tegnell
Sweden's chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell's plan has been likened to a herd-immunity strategy — a charge he denies.(Foreign Correspondent)
Under his guidance, Sweden was the only EU country not to impose tough, extensive, mandatory lockdowns. As the country's death toll rises, Tegnell faces a growing chorus of international condemnation and recently, a few death threats.

But, this being Sweden, a proudly egalitarian society, he's still on the street and accessible to foe and friend alike. "Good work, gang!" yells a supporter as she whizzes past Team Tegnell on her bicycle.

Anders Tegnell is not bowing to pressure. He still believes tough, short-term lockdowns are not the way to beat COVID-19, and that his strategy of keeping society largely open and the economy running will be proven right in the long term.

The man with the plan
Tegnell typifies Swedes' self-image as low-key, no-nonsense types. Fielding questions from journalists in the street, he doesn't even break his stride.

Journalist: A fair amount of pressure in your life these days?

Tegnell: Ah. Not that bad.

Journalist: You're one of Sweden's most famous men?

Tegnell: It will pass.

Journalist: Isn't there something you like about celebrity?

Tegnell: Not at all — I prefer to do my work.

This is not his first high-pressure assignment. Tegnell cut his epidemiological teeth during a deadly Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo in the 1990s.

As he fronts up to face the world's cameras, he calmly takes all questions, explaining why Sweden's pandemic plan is still working despite a COVID death toll that now rises beyond 5,000.

Anders Tegnell.
Tegnell has become a national celebrity, not just for Swedes but among many around the world who have questioned mandatory lockdown measures.(Foreign Correspondent)
"Do you think in retrospect now that actually trying to stop the disease — immediately — would have been a wiser solution," he's asked, "or do you still believe this long term strategy is the way to go?"

"We basically still think that this is the right strategy for Sweden," Tegnell replies.

"This is a bit like having an ocean liner and trying to steer it with a lag of three or four weeks. I think we are too early to both say Sweden was right or anybody else was right."

It's increasingly a tough message to sell, particularly when other Nordic countries that went into lockdown are now seeing infection rates decline. Controls are being relaxed and their regional borders are reopening — except to Sweden.

The Tegnell approach
When it comes to COVID-19, Sweden has been doing it differently. There have been no "go-hard, go-early" lockdowns; no chaos, no dramatic TV images of over-crowded intensive care hospital wards.

Tegnell's high-risk strategy centres on not doing very much at all, imposing a kind of "lockdown lite", relying on a national culture of individual responsibility, where social distancing and working from home are voluntary.

School students run down a red carpet.
Stockholm school students recently celebrated their high school graduation. Gatherings of more than 50 are banned.(Reuters: Jessica Gow)
Mandatory closures have been few, largely limited to high schools, universities and retirement homes, while public gatherings of more than 50 people have been banned.

The rest has been largely left to the discretion of individual Swedes. Sweden's Government says it's taking a long-term strategy in combatting COVID-19, intended to keep society — and the economy — running.

Sweden's COVID-19 cases vs Nordic neighbours
0
20
40
60
80
100
Days since 100th case
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
50k
60k
Cumulative known casessince 100th case
Australia
Denmark
Finland
Norway
Sweden
But the casualty list of the Swedish Model is growing. More than 65,000 people have been infected with COVID-19.

Unlike Sweden, the other Nordic countries swiftly imposed tough mandatory lockdowns. Today, the Swedes have double the number of confirmed cases as Denmark, Norway and Finland combined.

And the fatality rate is even worse — more than 5,200 have died from a population of just 10 million. That's five times the combined total of the other Nordic nations.

Sweden's COVID-19 deaths per million vs Nordic neighbours
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Days since 1st death
0
100
200
300
400
500
Cumulative known deaths permillion people since 1st death
Australia
Denmark
Finland
Norway
Sweden
Tegnell admits there have been failures. One of the relatively few government directives was to lock down aged care facilities. He concedes the order came too late and casualties have been high — of the 5,000 deaths, 88 per cent have been people aged over 70, many of them in retirement homes.

Exactly how many elderly Swedes have died of COVID-19 has been difficult to determine. During the first couple of months of the crisis, there was a lack of comprehensive testing making it hard to know the cause of death.

"We are doing a lot of things now and we see that the number of cases in those facilities is slowly falling," says Tegnell, "so we believe that even that can be rectified and our strategy will be even more sustainable."

To keep the COVID-19 outbreak under control we need to keep growth factor below 1.0
Sweden's current
growth factor is
1.04
May 16Jun 29
Average 1,248 cases per day for the past 7 days

HIGHEST
1.65 Mar 4th
LOWEST
0.97 May 7th
FIND OUT MORE →
To date, around 7 per cent of Sweden's population has been infected and developed COVID-19 antibodies, well short of the so-called "herd immunity" rate of at least 70 per cent, where so many people in the community become infected that the virus is theoretically controlled.

Swedish public health experts, critical of the Tegnell plan, say herd immunity was always the implied cornerstone of the national strategy. But Tegnell denies this was ever his goal.

He says his strategy has been misunderstood and championed by opponents of lockdowns who support a herd-immunity solution. As a result, he's getting an international pummelling.

"Sometimes I feel like a personal punchbag. But that's OK, I can live with that."

Say it with ink
A man is tattooed.
Stockholm tattoo artist Zashay Tastas is among Anders Tegnell's legion of fans in Sweden for his coronavirus response plan.(Foreign Correspondent)
Tegnell has become an unlikely Swedish hero. His regular briefings have brought him national fame and huge popularity. A rapper has sung his praises; his image adorns t-shirts and poster art.

Stockholm tattoo artist Zashay Tastas is a big fan. Tegnell, he says, radiates a kind of dad-like Swedish cool.

"He's kind of like the typical Swede," says Zashay, as he powers up the ink gun and gets to work on a client.

"He's calm — he has big-dick calmness over him — and he's very competent, not braggy about it."

The customer in the chair is mining-equipment salesman Gustav Agerblad, and he's getting some more work done to the inked Tegnell portrait that now adorns his arm.

A tattoo of Anders Tegnell's face.
Gustav Angerblad has been so impressed with Anders Tegnell's pandemic response he's had his face inked onto his arm.(Foreign Correspondent)
"I got it 'cause Anders Tegnell has been doing a really good job," says Gustav.

"When I watch the news and he's standing there, I feel that we are in good hands. Before this crisis, he was like nobody for the Swedish people. Now he's a rock star."

Opinion polls confirm it's a sentiment shared by many Swedes. Tegnell's popularity has dipped slightly in recent weeks but he still enjoys majority support. Most don't want a tattoo, but they appreciate the Tegnell philosophy: that Swedes can be trusted to do the right thing.

"I want to have the free will of my own and I really put the high price on that," says Gustav.

"To have a choice to go to the store when I want; to have a choice to work."


YOUTUBERap artist Shazaam's tribute to Anders Tegnell.
And there's not much empathy in the tattoo parlour for the collateral damage of the Swedish Model — the growing list of casualties.

"Yeah, bad luck I guess," Gustav says.

"Sorry that sounds harsh, but I mean I would rather have it like we have in Sweden than having it like in Poland, or in China, or in Lombardy in Italy, where they have closed down societies almost."

A Swedish Model family
Late Spring in Stockholm and the streets and parks are full of Swedes basking in the sunshine.

Despite the social-distancing signs on paths, bus stops and cafe walls, the freedoms of the pre-COVID world never really went away here. The bars and restaurants never closed and the gyms remain open.

People sit drinking beer in Stockholm.
For a few days in June, Sweden had one of the world's highest per capita death rates. With a few exceptions, the country has remained mostly open during the pandemic.(Reuters: Anders Wiklund)
For Stockholm couple Mina and Mathias, ensuring they and their three young children stay safe means following the Tegnell plan, with its emphasis on personal responsibility.

"I think it worked really well in the beginning when COVID came," says Mina.

Mathias and Mina pose with their daughter.
Mina has already had COVID-19 and Mathias suspects he may also have been infected. But Sweden has offered very little community testing so getting a diagnosis has been difficult.(Foreign Correspondent)
"People planned their grocery shopping better. I would think there weren't as many people at the shops.

"I think it's good that we have a more open, relaxed attitude. I don't believe in shutting down societies but feel safe in the Swedish Model still."

Mina works as an assistant director of an aged care facility and has just recovered from COVID. To protect patients and staff, she self-isolated at home when her symptoms first appeared.

Mina is relieved to have had only a mild case. Her partner Mathias also suspects he's had COVID, but confirming a diagnosis was difficult.

"I don't know if I've had it, but I think so," says Mathias.

"You live close to each other in a family and I've had a cold and a bit of a sore throat … nothing serious but that may have been a very mild version of corona. You hope so but you don't know."

Until recently, Sweden did very little community COVID testing. With a nationwide shortage of kits, testing was mainly reserved for the very sick who'd been hospitalised, or those in high-risk jobs like Mina.

Mina and Mathias.
Stockholm couple Mina and Mathias say compliance with the Tegnell plan was strong to begin with but has been fading with the onset of the Swedish summer.(Foreign Correspondent)
Despite much of Sweden staying open for business during the pandemic, GDP is predicted to fall by 7 per cent this year. It's a better forecast than the UK or Italy can expect, but really no better than Sweden's Nordic neighbours who did impose tough, early lockdowns.

Yet Mina believes the national economy would have taken a bigger hit without the Swedish Model.

"Of course there are individuals who have been affected more severely in Sweden, who have actually lost their jobs," she says.

"But I think that Sweden will gain its feet faster than many other countries."

Stockholm's forgotten people
In a neat cemetery in Stockholm's northern suburbs, it's easy to spot the recent COVID graves. The green manicured lawns are ruptured by mounds of fresh earth, covered in wilting flowers and treasured mementos of lives extinguished.

Mirrey Gourie kneels at her father's grave.
Mirrey Gourie's father Josef died of COVID-19 the day before his 64th birthday.(Foreign Correspondent)
It's here that a young woman, Mirrey Gourie, comes every day to visit the resting place of her father Josef, who died of coronavirus the day before his 64th birthday.

"I usually walk here in the morning, early, because then there are less people here … then I arrive, visit my dad of course and think, 'How could this have happened?'" she says.

Mirrey Gourie.
Mirrey believes her father would still be alive if the Swedish Government had moved more quickly to ban large gatherings during the early days of the COVID-19 outbreak.(Foreign Correspondent)
Fit and active, Josef was goalkeeper on the national soccer team of his native Syria before he emigrated to Sweden in 1990 with his wife and three children. When the pandemic struck, Mirrey says he was carefully following the recommendations issued by Tegnell and his team.

"Dad only moved between his home, his work and the church. The 15th of March he was at church and we found out he became sick after that ceremony," she recalls.

Just days later, the Government recommended the maximum number for a gathering be reduced from 500 to 50. But it was too late for Josef.

Mirrey believes had those measures been brought in sooner, her father would still be alive.

Scattered across the cemetery are other lonely figures, paying their respects, attempting to process the tragedy that's consumed their lives.

"Here we see really new graves and the majority have died from COVID 19," she says. "I think this is the proof about what really is happening in our society in Sweden."

During the past decade there's been a dramatic shift in Sweden's demographic. A quarter of the population now has a migrant background. The predominately migrant area here in Stockholm's north is one of the worst-hit in Sweden, with COVID infection rates up to three times higher than the greater Stockholm region.

Mirrey Gourie waters the flowers on her father's grave.
Mirrey's family live in the suburbs of northern Stockholm, a migrant area with infection rates up to three times higher than the rest of Stockholm.(Foreign Correspondent)
Writer and activist Nuri Kino is drawing attention to the devastating effects of the pandemic on foreign-born Swedes, particularly in his own community of Assyrian Christians.

Unlike Nordic Swedes, who largely live in small family groups or alone, migrant households often comprise three generations under one roof.

Nuri blames the health authorities for misunderstanding the different social structures of migrant communities and for failing to effectively warn of the dangers.

Nuri Kino.
Activist and author Nuri Kino says Swedish authorities failed to understand migrant communities.(Foreign Correspondent)
"The information that came to immigrant towns, districts or areas, was delayed, confusing and even in wrong languages," Nuri says.

"We socialise differently, the culture is different to the Swedish ethnic culture when it comes to social life. It's another of the reasons why we were more affected by the coronavirus, unfortunately."

In stark contrast to confident, bustling downtown Stockholm, the streets in Nuri's old neighbourhood are now eerily quiet. People keep their distance and turn away as they see him approach.

"If I come here, I always meet relatives, friends, children of friends. People have become aware of the situation and are more cautious," he says.

"Everyone here more or less knows someone who has passed away."

Critics of the plan
On first impressions, Anders Tegnell and Stefan Hanson seem to have a lot in common. Both are esteemed Swedish health scientists, in late middle age, who display a no-nonsense approach in getting on with their work.

But when it comes to the Swedish Model, they are diametrically opposed.

Stefan Hanson.
Stefan Hanson was among a group of leading doctors, virologists and researchers who called for the Swedish Model to be replaced by a "go hard, go early" strategy.(Foreign Correspondent)
Hanson, an infectious disease expert, was among a group of 22 leading doctors, virologists and researchers who called for the Swedish Model to be replaced by the Go Hard, Go Early approach of other Nordic countries.

"The problem is that I don't see any science — there is no scientific background to this strategy," Hanson says.

"I woke up in the night because I was thinking, 'This is terrible, people are dying and we are letting the infection spread.'

"From the very start they didn't believe it was going to become an epidemic in Sweden so they didn't take any measures to be prepared for an epidemic. The attitude is taking things too lightly and not to cause panic."

Hanson has turned his protest into action. In a suburban Stockholm shopping centre in a migrant neighbourhood, Hanson and his team have set up a clinic in an open space next to the first-floor escalators.

A nurse wearing a face shield and full protective gear sets up a table and unpacks equipment. The clinic offers an immediate test for COVID-19 antibodies, confirming if patients have already caught the virus.

Stefan Hanson wearing PPE.
Stefan Hanson runs a coronavirus testing desk in a Stockholm shopping centre with kits donated by a local university.(Foreign Correspondent)
For months, the Government did very little community testing, so Hanson started collaborating with a local university that provides the small kits that analyse blood samples while people wait.

A small crowd soon gathers, all quietly waiting their turn. In the eagerness to get tested, social distancing is forgotten.

"Positive!" declares Hanson to a young Somali man. "I knew it!" says the clearly relieved Somali, "That's why I spent about a month in my room." He thanks the team then promptly walks out of the shopping centre

"So the last gentleman — a Somali gentleman — he had symptoms three months ago and he has weak positivity," Hanson says, watching his test subject disappear.


About 8 per cent of those tested in the shopping centre returned positive results.(Foreign Correspondent)
There's no sense of drama nor heightened precautions around those who test positive. The lucky few who manage to get tested are relieved.

"People just want to know … we come here and they just show up. We are just trying to do this to be able to show that what the Government is doing is not sufficient. They have to do more."

Hanson says more testing will mean more contact tracing due to laws making it obligatory for authorities to follow up confirmed cases.

Today, there are just 24 kits and all too soon, the team starts to turn people away.

"That was 24 approved and three positives out of 24, so some 8 or 9 per cent [infection rate]," Hanson notes.

"We could test everybody here, for sure, we could test the whole day."

Swedish authorities are now, belatedly ramping up a national COVID-19 testing campaign, but for Stefan Hanson, it's too little, too late.

As he pulls off his face shield and packs up, Hanson's stoic facade slips just for a moment, in bitter reflection.

"Herd immunity is very far … and so many dead. The Government is doing nothing, just standing there and doing nothing."

Watch Foreign Correspondent's 'The Swedish Model' tonight at 8pm on ABC TV and iview, and streaming live on Facebook and YouTube.

Click on the link and look at the graphs. Essentially Sweden's economic growth seems as bad as its neighbours but with much higher casualty rate. The only saving grace is the believe that over the long term, their neighbours will get worse casualty rates so it evens out, while Sweden gets herd immunity.