Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[LadyTevar]

Isn't this also what happened to the Wehrmacht in WW2? Not bringing winter clothing and provisions because it was "a short war?"

Or the Soviet forces during the Winter War, it's hardly a new or unique thing, though it's always a major mistake.

It should be noted that Nicholas II was really, really poorly liked even before World War I (as in there had already been a revolution in 1905 due to how poorly the Tsar was handling things). This could be the end for Putin or it could not, it's still too early to say.

Well, it's certainly been a death sentence for his Oligarch friends. Perhaps because they were questioning how far he was taking it, now that it's looking more and more unprofitable?
Putin's neo-KGB is fighting with his Mercs over supplies, and the regular army is getting shafted. The Mercs are dredging the prisons for recruits, and using them as cannon fodder. The Russian Army isn't much better, and Ukrainian Sources claim there's a lot of deserters fleeing the Russian Army, with or without their weapons. The common Russian man does not want to fight a war, and while currently those at home are buying the propaganda, once they hit the front lines Putin can't hide the shit show.

The question now is Putin going to go full Baghdad Bob denial mode, or will he push all the way to Nukes. Because I really doubt he's any more capable of admitting his mistakes and wrongdoing than Trump could.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

The grim thing about nukes is that there's really nothing we can do to prevent it; at least in terms of Putin's decision-making. If he wants to press the button, he can press it any time he wants, and for any reason he wants.

Appeasement is pointless in this case, because there's no real way to establish a limit. Pre-WW2, the point of appeasement was to buy time to rearm, so there was at least a time limit. In this case, there's no such limit. Even if Ukraine pushed Russia out of its territory, Russia would still exist (assuming it didn't collapse due to internal unrest) and would still have nukes. So long as Putin has a functioning nuclear arsenal, he can go on making whatever demands he likes. The only options are to give in or call his bluff.

This has gotten me thinking. Even during the Cold War, an idea took root that nuclear weapons made for good neighbours. So long as nuclear deterrence existed, conventional inter-state wars could not happen; except maybe on a very limited, localised scale. So long a nuclear-armed states and their vital interests were not threatened, all would be well. All anyone had to do is live in peace with one-another and not fight any silly wars. Is that really so hard?

Except that even if this was true, it is no longer the case. Putin has not directly attacked a nuclear-armed state, but he has engineered a situation that could all too easily escalate; and has at least hinted at nuclear blackmail. This is the sort of scenario that was only supposed to happen in technothrillers or video games; yet here it is. Nuclear deterrence, supposedly the ultimate security guarantee, has been found wanting. Nuclear weapons have not saved Ukraine. Indeed, their existence has made the situation worse; because it puts limits on how much help Ukraine's allies dare provide. Sure, they can send weapons and train personnel, but they don't dare deploy actual troops, or attack Russia directly.

This all begs the question; what should the world do about it? Give up nuclear weapons is the obvious answer, but it's not going to happen. International agreements may lead to reduced arsenals, but it's unlikely that anyone will give up all their nukes. At the same time, simply acquiring nukes doesn't really help either; not if there exists a nuclear-armed rogue state that might not respond to deterrence in the required way.

I have a sneaking feeling that we will see more and more interest in ballistic missile defence over the coming years; assuming human civilisation survives that long. ABM may not be much to speak of right now, but the technology has improved a bit over the years, and I'm not currently seeing any alternative.

[Highlord Laan]

The US is actually in a good spot with ABM capability. Aegis allows missiles to shoot down satellites in stable orbit, which means they can shoot down ballistic missiles, too. We just don't advertise the fact.

One thing the US could also do is take a page from ruzzia's and north korea's books and conduct a missile test than lands in the Sea of Japan. The USN would just be launching the test missile from the North Atlantic. Just to make sure the point is very blatantly made.

Poot-poot is the kind of wannabe warlord shitstain that only understands force. He won't back down until he's slapped down.

[LadyTevar]

One thing the US could also do is take a page from ruzzia's and north korea's books and conduct a missile test than lands in the Sea of Japan. The USN would just be launching the test missile from the North Atlantic. Just to make sure the point is very blatantly made.

As amusing as that would be, it'd be a trigger for a shit show. It wouldn't shut Putin or Kim down, it'd just make them piss their pants and double down.

I'd still LOVE to see the USN do that.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Poot-poot is the kind of wannabe warlord shitstain that only understands force. He won't back down until he's slapped down.

Because his invasion force getting slaughtered wasn't enough?
Three killed in ‘Ukrainian drone attack’ on air base deep inside Russia, Moscow says.

Three servicemen have been killed as a Ukrainian drone was shot down at an air base deep into Russian soil, Moscow has said.

It marks the second attack on Engels air base in a matter of weeks, a key facility situated some 300 miles from Russia’s border with Ukraine and a further 100 miles from the current frontline in the Donbas region.

Three technical staff died “as a result of the fall of the wreckage of the drone” as it was shot down in the early hours of Boxing Day, Russia’s defence ministry claimed.

Despite some unverified claims to the contrary, Moscow insisted that no aviation equipment had been damaged at the air base in Russia’s Saratov region, which houses long-range strategic bombers implicated in Vladimir Putin’s recent bombardment of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

“A Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle was shot down at low altitude while approaching the Engels military airfield in the Saratov region” just after 1:30am, Russian news agencies reported the defence ministry as saying.

“As a result of the fall of the wreckage of the drone, three Russian servicemen of the technical staff who were at the airfield were fatally wounded.”

Expressing condolences to the men’s families, Saratov governor Roman Busargin said there was “absolutely no threat to residents” in the city of Engels – and insisted that talk of a state of emergency and an evacuation of the city was “blatant lies”.

According to Russian news outlet Baza, which initially reported that air raid sirens could be heard near the air base, an area of 120 square metres was left burning in the wake of the explosion, which it claimed also injured four people.

The Engels air base, one of two strategic bomber bases housing Russia’s air-delivered nuclear capability, was also hit on 5 December – in a twin attack which analysts said dealt Russia a major reputational blow and raised serious questions about the Kremlin’s air defences.

Those strikes – on both Engels and the Dyagilevo bomber base in Russia’s Ryazan region, situated just 100 miles from Moscow – were also said to have killed a total of three servicemen and injured four others.

“Based on the location of the air base, its jets have played a major role in the recent bombings in Ukraine,” Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, told The Guardian at the time.

Moscow kept 15 to 16 Tu-95MS bombers and 15 Tu-160s at the Engels air base, which represents the largest share of Russia’s Tu-160 arsenal, Mr Lee said, adding: “Ukraine has been warning for weeks now that Russia was preparing for a fresh wave of missile attacks on its energy grid. This could have been a pre-emptive strike.”

Russia has around 60 to 70 strategic bomber planes of two types – the Tu-95MS Bear and the Tu-160 Blackjack, both of which are capable of carrying nuclear bombs and nuclear-armed cruise missiles as well as conventional munitions.

There was no immediate comment from Ukraine, which never officially claims responsibility for attacks on Russian territory.

Speaking to broadcasters on Monday, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat did not directly acknowledge his country’s involvement in the incident, but said: “These are the consequences of Russian aggression.”

He added: “If the Russians thought that the war would not affect them in the deep rear, they were deeply mistaken.”

It came hours after Ukraine accused Moscow of launching more than 10 rocket attacks on the Kupiansk district in the Kharkiv region and shelling more than 25 towns along the Kupiansk-Lyman frontline, with nearly 20 towns also hit in the Zaporizhzhia region.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

This is more important than it looks.

The way I see it, Ukraine should be able to push Russian forces out of its territory within the coming year. I'd be surprised if there wasn't one last major offensive within the next month or two, just before the spring thaw forces another lull. Based on what I'm hearing of Ukrainian troop movements, the thrust will be further into Donetsk or maybe south-east against Mariupol/Melitopol; or maybe both. The point of the latter would be to cut Russia's southern land bridge to Crimea, leaving both isolated and easier to deal with later.

This begs the question; what happens if Russia is forced out of Ukraine, but Putin won't give up? Even if his army can't fight on, he can still launch air and missile strikes; at least until he runs out of missiles and aircraft parts. And to ensure that they do run out, the sanctions will have to continue.

At least this way, Ukraine can launch air/drone strikes into Russian territory on its own. It's not much, but it's something.

[Zaune]

At this rate, by this time next year the only thing stopping the Ukrainians counter-invading Russia will be the Strategic Rocket Forces. Assuming they haven't walked off the job over unpaid wages.

[Lord Revan]

To be fair if even half of what we're hearing is true, this time next year it's possible there won't even be a Russia to invade (or at least a unified Russia that isn't fought over by various warlords)

[EnterpriseSovereign]

To be fair if even half of what we're hearing is true, this time next year it's possible there won't even be a Russia to invade (or at least a unified Russia that isn't fought over by various warlords)

A Russia that's at war with itself is preferable to one that's at war with the rest of the world

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

Eh, not really. The most likely situation is we'll get a palace coup; essentially, the new boss is the old boss but savvier. People forget that, right now, Russia is (politically) in the same spot as France after Franco-Prussia.

... and those who know their history know what sort of 'fun' happens next.

Though, it could be possible that China will get into the situation and effectively installs a Bejing puppet in Moscow... defacto returning Siberia to China...

[Ralin]

To be fair if even half of what we're hearing is true, this time next year it's possible there won't even be a Russia to invade (or at least a unified Russia that isn't fought over by various warlords)

I suspect that focusing on funding internal security will prove to be one of Putin's wiser decisions

[bilateralrope]

To be fair if even half of what we're hearing is true, this time next year it's possible there won't even be a Russia to invade (or at least a unified Russia that isn't fought over by various warlords)

A Russia that's at war with itself is preferable to one that's at war with the rest of the world

Until those warlords start nuking each other.

[Rogue 9]

Also, I guess these missiles were launched from Russia? Do Ukraine have anything that can reach those launch sites? Russian military sites are legitimate targets to Ukraine.

NATO has been careful not to give the Ukrainians anything useful for deep strikes into Russian territory, deeming it provocative if they were to use NATO equipment to do that. So anything they have that can would have to be part of their leftover Soviet arsenal.

[bilateralrope]

Poot-poot is the kind of wannabe warlord shitstain that only understands force. He won't back down until he's slapped down.

Because his invasion force getting slaughtered wasn't enough?
Three killed in ‘Ukrainian drone attack’ on air base deep inside Russia, Moscow says.

I note that Moscow is claiming that the three deaths were because of falling debris from the drone. No mention of any armament on the drone.

So they haven't ruled out the possibility that Ukraine killed 3 russians, deep into Russian territory, with an unarmed drone

[Lord Revan]

To be fair if even half of what we're hearing is true, this time next year it's possible there won't even be a Russia to invade (or at least a unified Russia that isn't fought over by various warlords)

A Russia that's at war with itself is preferable to one that's at war with the rest of the world

Until those warlords start nuking each other.

Or anything close enough to Russia to be still within the danger zone, not to mention some of those warlords might think raiding their neighbors is a good way to get additional income and equipment.

[madd0c0t0r2]

Poot-poot is the kind of wannabe warlord shitstain that only understands force. He won't back down until he's slapped down.

Because his invasion force getting slaughtered wasn't enough?
Three killed in ‘Ukrainian drone attack’ on air base deep inside Russia, Moscow says.

I note that Moscow is claiming that the three deaths were because of falling debris from the drone. No mention of any armament on the drone.

So they haven't ruled out the possibility that Ukraine killed 3 russians, deep into Russian territory, with an unarmed drone

I'm like 80% sure it intercepted a bomber as it took off/came in to land. Hence three crew deaths and bigger bang than a drone can normally manage.

[LaCroix]

There are semi-official rumors that the hit actually destroyed 5 95's. They might have had ready munitions stacked for a strike, and the Ukrainians found out and tried the same trick as last time - hitting to de-synchronise the big volley launch. This time it seems the big strike got postponed because of this.

3 Pilots and another 20-30 other personal WIA/KIA. Not enough intel to say exactly.


In other news/On the bright side, Russia is now having one of the smallest incarceration quotas in the world.

[madd0c0t0r2]

There are semi-official rumors that the hit actually destroyed 5 95's. They might have had ready munitions stacked for a strike, and the Ukrainians found out and tried the same trick as last time - hitting to de-synchronise the big volley launch. This time it seems the big strike got postponed because of this.

3 Pilots and another 20-30 other personal WIA/KIA. Not enough intel to say exactly.


In other news/On the bright side, Russia is now having one of the smallest incarceration quotas in the world.

Penal Legions don't count as Fhreedum!

Has anyone admitted to having slow missiles yet? Stuff like small ornithopters that cross the space slowly, but much harder to pickout because of it?

[Zaune]

In other news/On the bright side, Russia is now having one of the smallest incarceration quotas in the world.

Great...

I was listening to a podcast yesterday about strange events that happen during wartime, and the episode in question was a listener-submitted story from a Ukrainian Army officer about something that happened during the 2015 campaign. His motorised infantry platoon were escorting a military ambulance away from an artillery firebase when their small convoy was ambushed by Russian special forces. Despite the fact that this guy was clearly still angry and bitter about losing half his unit to a thermobaric RPG round before they could even de-bus from their BTR-80, he took pains to point out that those Spetznas(?) troops obeyed the laws of war and never fired a single shot towards the vehicle with the red cross emblems on the side.

I wonder how many soldiers Russia has left who know, or care, that they're supposed to do that.

[LadyTevar]

In other news/On the bright side, Russia is now having one of the smallest incarceration quotas in the world.

Great...

I was listening to a podcast yesterday about strange events that happen during wartime, and the episode in question was a listener-submitted story from a Ukrainian Army officer about something that happened during the 2015 campaign. His motorised infantry platoon were escorting a military ambulance away from an artillery firebase when their small convoy was ambushed by Russian special forces. Despite the fact that this guy was clearly still angry and bitter about losing half his unit to a thermobaric RPG round before they could even de-bus from their BTR-80, he took pains to point out that those Spetznas(?) troops obeyed the laws of war and never fired a single shot towards the vehicle with the red cross emblems on the side.

I wonder how many soldiers Russia has left who know, or care, that they're supposed to do that.

They bombed a CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL, back when the war first started, killing several babies, children, and pregnant women.
Some of the Russian Command simply did not care from the start.

Now, with all the evidence we're finding of mass graves full of tortured civilians? Whether Wagner mercs or Russian army, the Commanders allowed this to happen. Did Putin know it was happening on the ground? Unknown. But the graves are there. There's children who were 'evacuated' into Russia from cities the Russians captured, and rumors those children have been adopted/sold into Russian families. There's Ukrainian civilians who have vanished into Russian 'prison camps', and those who got out testify to torture, abuse, rape, and random killings.

I know US Special Forces stick to their Code, and while they'll stretch some Rules of War, others are Sacrosanct. Russia Special Forces are probably no different and respect the rules covering Non-Coms and Medics. The problem is there's only so many Russian SF groups, and the rest of the military ranges from amateurs to bullies to psychopaths.
Oh.. and some men who just want to go home, which as SirPratchett pointed out can commit the most banal of evils simply because it was their job.

[Broomstick]

This all begs the question; what should the world do about it? Give up nuclear weapons is the obvious answer, but it's not going to happen. International agreements may lead to reduced arsenals, but it's unlikely that anyone will give up all their nukes.

Ukraine used to have nukes. They gave them up in return for guarantees of their territorial integrity and sovereignty. Well, behold the results.

No one will ever willingly surrender their nukes again.

[Broomstick]

A Russia that's at war with itself is preferable to one that's at war with the rest of the world

Until those warlords start nuking each other.

Or anything close enough to Russia to be still within the danger zone, not to mention some of those warlords might think raiding their neighbors is a good way to get additional income and equipment.

If Russia fractures into warlord zones and they start nuking each other eventually we all get to breathe the literal fallout.

[Broomstick]

Has anyone admitted to having slow missiles yet? Stuff like small ornithopters that cross the space slowly, but much harder to pickout because of it?

I believe we call those "armed drones" and actually ornithopers are problematic for flying. Which is why a quadcopter design is the usual thing these days.

[Batman]

WTH would an actual ornithopter BE? I know they were a thing in Dune but what IS that? A vehicle that flies by flapping its wings?

[Broomstick]

Yes.

I had a small RC model one for a number of years. Gained some notoriety with it, as mine was the only actually working one most of the RC locals had ever seen, and on top of that I managed to keep it working for years. Always intended to tweak it to work better - it really wasn't as good as it could have been - but it was about the size of a sparrow and weighed as much.

They don't scale up well. I'll just leave it at that. It's a cool idea but for most purposes fixed-wing aircraft are still most efficient, followed by rotorcraft in niche applications.

This is not the one I had - in fact, this one looks like it flies better - but it gives you an idea of a working ornithopter

https://youtu.be/Gtn4PpZEB8I

I am not aware of the existence of any working ornithopter capable of carrying a human being.