Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[The_Saint]

From the discussion the other day regarding Russian production of missiles vs purchasing drones from Iran... Russia has a major issue with importation or home production of microchips that currently Iran is, at the least, better able to circumvent any restrictions placed on it.

[Shroom Man 777]

Just wait for the guy to die, that's the most valid strategy and a newish level of "war of attrition."

The next guy is more likely to be a complete hardline psychopath than someone that we can reasonably deal with.

Yeah I agree I think that even pre-war Putin wasn't just a lone super-psycho but acting on entrenched state interests and while war may not have been a guaranteed outcome, well we're past that point.

[LadyTevar]

Putin announces a 36hr Cease-Fire for the Orthodox Christmas Holiday.
His Artillery didn't get the message, they've not stopped bombardment at all.

[Prannon]

Putin announces a 36hr Cease-Fire for the Orthodox Christmas Holiday.
His Artillery didn't get the message, they've not stopped bombardment at all.

The man thinks like an abuser.

"Oh, I offered a cease fire from my punitive invasion, in my mercy. But you didn't take it for some reason. So ungrateful. Well, guess the beatings will continue! I was the one being so merciful."

[Zaune]

Unless of course the Russians have run out of new radio batteries, half their staff officers can't get into their email because someone's trying to download porn over the satellite link and the dispatch riders keep getting stuck in traffic or mugged when they stop for a piss break, so the battery commanders didn't know there was supposed to be a ceasefire until they found out from the BBC World Service.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

I thought they were using the opportunity to conserve their dwindling ammo supplies but it seems they cannot even do that properly

[bilateralrope]

Unless of course the Russians have run out of new radio batteries, half their staff officers can't get into their email because someone's trying to download porn over the satellite link and the dispatch riders keep getting stuck in traffic or mugged when they stop for a piss break, so the battery commanders didn't know there was supposed to be a ceasefire until they found out from the BBC World Service.

Don't forget about Russian forces using smartphones that Ukraine can easily intercept and track because Ukraine controls the cell towers.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

Sounds exactly like a certain StarCraft character I know of.

Yep, and that's the situation we are facing.

Is it? I was flat out wrong about the willingness of Russia to do a crazy invasion. Am I wrong about the willingness of all of the Russian elite to attempt to burn the world down? They have lost a huge amount of military readiness credibility. I can imagine discussions about whether Nato can intercept or tank the majority of their nuclear aresenal without loosing functionality in the future world. I can possibly imagine China seeing this as good or bad for themselves.

You haven't read history then, haven't you?

To give a quick summary, after France got its ass handed to it during Franco-Prussia, for all intents and purposes, the entire nation went crazy with revenge. To get anywhere within France's political structure, you had to be pro-revenge or be screwed over and/or sidelined. This led to a lot of events that ended up putting eggs on various political leaders' faces due to this. It also culminated in France telling Serbia to go to war against Austria-Hungry, knowing full well that it would get Germany involved one way or another. Then WW1 happens, France's military gets decimated to the point that mutinies were becoming a regular occurrence, especially during the later stages of the war before the US got involved with some severe shenanigans by Britain (including causing a scenario where Germany had to reopen unrestricted naval warfare and use the Lusitania as a sacrificial lamb)...

Now we've got a similar situation, but with nukes.

The next guy is more likely to be a complete hardline psychopath than someone that we can reasonably deal with.

Given that the likely candidate to replace Putin is someone that makes Putin look sane? Yeah... you can do the math on that one.

[madd0c0t0r2]

You haven't read history then, haven't you?

I really havent. Up to 14+ we really only covered romans vs celts, 1066-tudors, cromwell and a version of the Industrial Revolution that glossed heavily over the empire. History was optional at 14+, and the way the timetable options were arranged I expect it clashed with something I needed for an engineering degree

To give a quick summary, after France got its ass handed to it during Franco-Prussia, for all intents and purposes, the entire nation went crazy with revenge. To get anywhere within France's political structure, you had to be pro-revenge or be screwed over and/or sidelined. This led to a lot of events...

Now we've got a similar situation, but with nukes.

The next guy is more likely to be a complete hardline psychopath than someone that we can reasonably deal with.

Given that the likely candidate to replace Putin is someone that makes Putin look sane? Yeah... you can do the math on that one.

In that same time period, How often has a country suffered a defeat crippling to it's self image and not gone crazy for revenge?
China, Opium Wars (they're still angry, but not crazy)
Greece vs Turkey 1922ish
Germany, WW2.
Italy WW2

America, Vietnam
Cambodia's reaction to invasion by Vietnam,
Bangladesh, Pakistan (or conversely, Pakistan's defeat by both Pakistan and India)

(Possibly not crippling self image?)
UK, Afghanistan
Russia, Afghanistan
America, Afghanistan

Argentina, Falklands War.
Middle east vs Israel, 12 days war.

There's more ways to go crazy than just with Nukes, but really the only 'crazy, conscript most of the population and keep launching way after waves of attacks until country is depopulated' cases I can think of are France, Napoleonic France, and Nazi Germany.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

You haven't read history then, haven't you?

I really havent. Up to 14+ we really only covered romans vs celts, 1066-tudors, cromwell and a version of the Industrial Revolution that glossed heavily over the empire. History was optional at 14+, and the way the timetable options were arranged I expect it clashed with something I needed for an engineering degree

To give a quick summary, after France got its ass handed to it during Franco-Prussia, for all intents and purposes, the entire nation went crazy with revenge. To get anywhere within France's political structure, you had to be pro-revenge or be screwed over and/or sidelined. This led to a lot of events...

Now we've got a similar situation, but with nukes.

The next guy is more likely to be a complete hardline psychopath than someone that we can reasonably deal with.

Given that the likely candidate to replace Putin is someone that makes Putin look sane? Yeah... you can do the math on that one.

In that same time period, How often has a country suffered a defeat crippling to it's self image and not gone crazy for revenge?
China, Opium Wars (they're still angry, but not crazy)
Greece vs Turkey 1922ish
Germany, WW2.
Italy WW2

America, Vietnam
Cambodia's reaction to invasion by Vietnam,
Bangladesh, Pakistan (or conversely, Pakistan's defeat by both Pakistan and India)

(Possibly not crippling self image?)
UK, Afghanistan
Russia, Afghanistan
America, Afghanistan

Argentina, Falklands War.
Middle east vs Israel, 12 days war.

There's more ways to go crazy than just with Nukes, but really the only 'crazy, conscript most of the population and keep launching way after waves of attacks until country is depopulated' cases I can think of are France, Napoleonic France, and Nazi Germany.

You can add Russia to that list.

Russia is planning to mobilise 500,000 troops but if they don't succeed, it will lead to Vladimir Putin's collapse, Ukrainian intelligence chiefs has claimed. Vadym Skibitsky, Ukraine's deputy military intelligence chief, said would be used in attacks over the spring and summer in the east and south of the country, according to the Evening Standard. He said: "We expect them to conduct offensives in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, as well as possibly Zaporizhzhia but to defend in Kherson and Crimea, this is the number of men they will need for such a task. If Russia loses this time around, then Putin will collapse.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

You can add Russia to that list.

Russia is planning to mobilise 500,000 troops but if they don't succeed, it will lead to Vladimir Putin's collapse, Ukrainian intelligence chiefs has claimed. Vadym Skibitsky, Ukraine's deputy military intelligence chief, said would be used in attacks over the spring and summer in the east and south of the country, according to the Evening Standard. He said: "We expect them to conduct offensives in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, as well as possibly Zaporizhzhia but to defend in Kherson and Crimea, this is the number of men they will need for such a task. If Russia loses this time around, then Putin will collapse.

That makes sense for one simple reason. To fake a victory, Russia has to push Ukraine out of the annexed territories at the bare minimum. To do that, Putin has to attack, whether his forces are up to it or not.

On that basis, Ukraine's recent behaviour makes sense too. Rather than try to grab more territory - and risk being caught in the open by a full-scale counter-attack - they intend to dig in and make the Russians pay for every step they take.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

I really havent. Up to 14+ we really only covered romans vs celts, 1066-tudors, cromwell and a version of the Industrial Revolution that glossed heavily over the empire. History was optional at 14+, and the way the timetable options were arranged I expect it clashed with something I needed for an engineering degree

... of course, you weren't. I'm only somewhat knowledgeable because I had history as a hobby of mine.

There's more ways to go crazy than just with Nukes, but really the only 'crazy, conscript most of the population and keep launching way after waves of attacks until country is depopulated' cases I can think of are France, Napoleonic France, and Nazi Germany.

Well, add China into the 'maybe' pile, largely because the fallout of the Opium Wars is still with us today and China has an ego the size of planet Earth...

... but yeah, the right answer is Napoleonic France, 3rd Republic France, and Germany. At least, what we can say with any definity anyway.

Given the circumstances, you might see a 'Novaya Russia' scenario (named after the original Empire Earth's hardest campaign of the same name) as a distinct possibility...

[LaCroix]

The west has been supporting Ukraine with defensive stuff for pretty much a full year, but not allowing them to win outright, trying to give Putin an off-ramp. And another one, and another...

Meanwhile, Vlad has been welding the pedal to the metal and is soloing the highway in a mad dash hoping to win, somehow, making outrageous demands while only managing to stall the ukrainian offensive with a full frontal assault of all their forces. And now tryng to again raise more meat for the grinder, because "Russia stronk and army can win".

The allies have now realized that the only way to end this war is to allow Ukraine to win. Decisively. Only if the Russian army is smashed and forced to flee to their own homeland with it's tail tucked, there is a possibility for Russia to finally wake up to reality. We want the war to be done in 2023, and if the Russians are not backing down, then Ukraine will have their hands untied from their backs and be given permission to go ham.
That's why they are suddely getting long-range strike ammunition like the new "rocket-bombs", IFVs by the hundreds, and even tanks and fighter jets are possible in the future weeks.

[madd0c0t0r2]

The west has been supporting Ukraine with defensive stuff for pretty much a full year, but not allowing them to win outright, trying to give Putin an off-ramp. And another one, and another...

Meanwhile, Vlad has been welding the pedal to the metal and is soloing the highway in a mad dash hoping to win, somehow, making outrageous demands while only managing to stall the ukrainian offensive with a full frontal assault of all their forces. And now tryng to again raise more meat for the grinder, because "Russia stronk and army can win".

The allies have now realized that the only way to end this war is to allow Ukraine to win. Decisively. Only if the Russian army is smashed and forced to flee to their own homeland with it's tail tucked, there is a possibility for Russia to finally wake up to reality. We want the war to be done in 2023, and if the Russians are not backing down, then Ukraine will have their hands untied from their backs and be given permission to go ham.
That's why they are suddely getting long-range strike ammunition like the new "rocket-bombs", IFVs by the hundreds, and even tanks and fighter jets are possible in the future weeks.

Do the allies want to end the war?

[Ralin]

Do the allies want to end the war?

Probably. Mostly, with some caveats about what ending it means and what exactly they're willing to do and accept and so on.

There have been a bunch of snide comments about how this whole thing is a very cost-efficient way for the US government to fuck over the Russian military while also being a great pretext to shovel even more money to the military-industrial complex, and it is, but there are also really good reasons why the US, NATO and other European countries in general would benefit from this not dragging out into a several year forever war the way I strongly suspect it will. Some of them even being genuine humanitarian concern for the Ukranians and regular Russian people.

[Lord Revan]

There's also the matter that Russia too weak to protect its own territory from getting taken by for example China by any other means then nukes would benefit no one and that's another argument of not allowing just to drag on until Russia has literally no troops left to field.

[LaCroix]

tl;dr They hoped Russia would stop hurting itself and making things worse for the whole world while doing so - It didn't, and now they equip Ukraine to MAKE Russia stop.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

The west has been supporting Ukraine with defensive stuff for pretty much a full year, but not allowing them to win outright, trying to give Putin an off-ramp. And another one, and another...

Meanwhile, Vlad has been welding the pedal to the metal and is soloing the highway in a mad dash hoping to win, somehow, making outrageous demands while only managing to stall the ukrainian offensive with a full frontal assault of all their forces. And now tryng to again raise more meat for the grinder, because "Russia stronk and army can win".

The allies have now realized that the only way to end this war is to allow Ukraine to win. Decisively. Only if the Russian army is smashed and forced to flee to their own homeland with it's tail tucked, there is a possibility for Russia to finally wake up to reality. We want the war to be done in 2023, and if the Russians are not backing down, then Ukraine will have their hands untied from their backs and be given permission to go ham.
That's why they are suddely getting long-range strike ammunition like the new "rocket-bombs", IFVs by the hundreds, and even tanks and fighter jets are possible in the future weeks.

If you want to see where this goes, take a gander at France after Franco-Prussia. This is going to only make things worse in terms of internal politics. Remember, the guy who is likely to replace Putin is... someone that makes Putin look sane.

tl;dr They hoped Russia would stop hurting itself and making things worse for the whole world while doing so - It didn't, and now they equip Ukraine to MAKE Russia stop.

Yeah, this.

[His Divine Shadow]

The west has been supporting Ukraine with defensive stuff for pretty much a full year, but not allowing them to win outright, trying to give Putin an off-ramp. And another one, and another...

Because they wanted to go back to sucking on putins gas pipe. That looks ever more unlikely so might as well end it.

[Dark Hellion]

tl;dr They hoped Russia would stop hurting itself and making things worse for the whole world while doing so - It didn't, and now they equip Ukraine to MAKE Russia stop.

I am not trying to be condescending but wasn't this the obvious read-between-the-lines of every NATO intelligence agency communication since day 4 of Putin's 3 day war?

I think it took NATO intelligence about 12 hours into the invasion to realize that Russia was even more of a paper tiger than they already believed. After that, it really was them pressing their thumb on the scales of the conflict in a somewhat callously realpolitik way while various smaller political groups have used the conflict to try to score easy victories.

My reading has been that pretty much all the showing of NATO solidarity and demonstrations of NATOs ability to level warfare at an enemy in a variety of economic and technological ways was for the consumption of countries like China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.

This is just all me filling in the various voids in information with other info available from public sources. I also don't think the above was all that coordinated or intentional but was a happy accident made possible by Russia's weakness allowing for a pretty lenient time scale to formulate responses.

I would like input from posters that are closer to the area with points or counterpoints to this. It seems to make the kinda messy sense that most conflicts involve but I'm sure there are a lot of key considerations I am missing.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

The west has been supporting Ukraine with defensive stuff for pretty much a full year, but not allowing them to win outright, trying to give Putin an off-ramp. And another one, and another...

Because they wanted to go back to sucking on putins gas pipe. That looks ever more unlikely so might as well end it.

That's the difference between playing not to lose, and playing to win, which will happen as soon as Western armoured vehicles join the fight like what Ukraine has been asking for. What they really want to do is cut off the land bridge connecting Russia to Crimea.

[LaCroix]

Well, so far, the NATO line was to not let Russia win, but not to beat them too hard, because "what comes after" "nuclear winter"...
Supplies to Ukraine were mostly defensive - anti tank, anti air. Stuff you need to not loose, but hardly enough to win.

When that wasn't enough, they sent some offensive precision stuff, like Himars, but only a few handful of everything - again - not weapons to win a war, but a tool to make the attackers life really hard. You can cut bridges, destroy supply depots and the occasional base with HIMARS, but you can't go on an offensive with what they have.

Till the end of the Kherson offensive, they were hoping Russia would see the writing on the wall, and call it quits.

Now NATO is being done with hoping and thoroughly pissed, and start sending IFVs, and now most likely tanks and fighter airplanes, along with long-range disruptive munitions that can strike twice as deep as HIMARS, for half the cost.
That's the stuff you need to drive an army out - that is offensive stuff, which Ukraine has been begging for, since pretty much april/may.
Germany is still dragging its feet, but they are starting to see the light, as well.

So there has been a distinct switch in general NAto opinion from "don't let Ukraine win too hard" to "Make Russia cry mommy".

[Solauren]

Quite frankly, Russia being dealt with needs to happen.

Otherwise, if Putin remains in control of Russia, he'll just purge out anything he considers problematic, blaming them for the failure of the 'special operation', and then rebuild the Russian military. Probably under KGB level monitoring to prevent the problems it's had during the 'special operation'.

Effectively burning the 'paper tiger', and replacing it with a pride of lions.

Then, Putin will just order another invasion, but with a far better military.

The Russian military needs to be ground down to just the units Putin is keeping in defensive reserve (i.e his personnel guard).

Then Russia needs to be hit, hard. Hard enough, the Russian people go 'now is our chance', and remove the last bit of the old USSR that is still around (Putin and his cronies).

I'm not to worried about it getting to the point of Nuclear Weapons being used. As previously stated, given how bad the Russian military has performed, I expect a Simpson-esque moment with Russias nuclear warhead with Putin reading them and seeing 'Best before 1981' or similar.

That, or the missiles not having fuel, or had parts stolen from them, or launch doors refusing to open, or never existed in the first place.....

[ray245]

Quite frankly, Russia being dealt with needs to happen.

Otherwise, if Putin remains in control of Russia, he'll just purge out anything he considers problematic, blaming them for the failure of the 'special operation', and then rebuild the Russian military. Probably under KGB level monitoring to prevent the problems it's had during the 'special operation'.

Effectively burning the 'paper tiger', and replacing it with a pride of lions.

Then, Putin will just order another invasion, but with a far better military.

The Russian military needs to be ground down to just the units Putin is keeping in defensive reserve (i.e his personnel guard).

Then Russia needs to be hit, hard. Hard enough, the Russian people go 'now is our chance', and remove the last bit of the old USSR that is still around (Putin and his cronies).

I'm not to worried about it getting to the point of Nuclear Weapons being used. As previously stated, given how bad the Russian military has performed, I expect a Simpson-esque moment with Russias nuclear warhead with Putin reading them and seeing 'Best before 1981' or similar.

That, or the missiles not having fuel, or had parts stolen from them, or launch doors refusing to open, or never existed in the first place.....

Hey, stop fantasizing about World War 3. Gee, the western delusion of power fantasy is becoming problematic.

There's a whole Iraq War-style power fantasy that has came back with far too many westerners. The whole "let's wish for more war because I'm sitting safely in my couch at home" needs to go.

Anyone who keeps calling for the expansion of war is ultimately just a war-monger at the end of the day.

[bilateralrope]

Otherwise, if Putin remains in control of Russia, he'll just purge out anything he considers problematic, blaming them for the failure of the 'special operation', and then rebuild the Russian military. Probably under KGB level monitoring to prevent the problems it's had during the 'special operation'.

Effectively burning the 'paper tiger', and replacing it with a pride of lions.

Then, Putin will just order another invasion, but with a far better military.

The time it takes Putin to rebuild the Russian military also gives time for the countries around Russia to join NATO if they don't want to become part of Russia. It's clear now that Russia isn't going to allow anyone to take any middle ground there. The next war, if it happens, will immediately be Russia VS NATO. Not the rest of the world walking a thin line trying to support Ukraine as much as possible without actually joining the conflict.