UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[Gandalf]

If Ukraine surrenders right now they'll end up in a similar situation as Chechnya. It's not pretty, we're not going to like it, but it's a path towards peace which leaves what's left of the Ukraine with some degree of autonomy. Keep fighting long enough and they'll suffer the same fate as the Circassians - most of the people will be driven into exile or killed and those who remain will be assimilated into Russia. Ukraine will be erased and become part of Russia.

That's one of the things that doesn't come up in these discussions; the viability of post conflict Ukraine. The longer the conflict goes on, the fewer workers in the economy afterwards, and the more rebuilding required. A fucked up Ukraine may just wind up as someone's economic vassal.

At this point they may need to pray for a Marshall Plan.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Did you even read those articles? Because in neither of them do they say what the terms of any ceasefire would be or that Putin has changed his position in any way.

Jesus Christ - the entire point of negotiations is to seek to come to an agreement in a dispute where before there was none. Like good grief, your rationale for refusing to entertain negotiations is apparently "I have seen no evidence that Putin has indicated what he will agree to before it starts".

That's what the negotiation process is for! To see what the parties will actually agree to. To come to terms. Not to already agree on terms before walking into it.

Nothing is lost by trying to negotiate! Nothing. I have made this point a million times at this point and your refusal to engage with it is patent.

Because your entire argument is fundamentally flawed and based on the notion that Putin might offer something that he hasn't offered before, despite making absolutely no indications of doing so and if anything is doubling down. To assume he's going to suddenly change is, frankly, absurd.

[3-Body Problem]

Because your entire argument is fundamentally flawed and based on the notion that Putin might offer something that he hasn't offered before, despite making absolutely no indications of doing so and if anything is doubling down. To assume he's going to suddenly change is, frankly, absurd.

If we're being honest, Ukraine has no hope of getting better terms via strength at arms so what does losing a slow bloody meatgrinder of a war get them in the end besides, at best, a pyrrhic victory?

[Vympel]

Because your entire argument is fundamentally flawed and based on the notion that Putin might offer something that he hasn't offered before, despite making absolutely no indications of doing so and if anything is doubling down. To assume he's going to suddenly change is, frankly, absurd.

You know how you would find out if this was correct?

By doing negotiations, lol.

But you don't want to do that because you don't actually want the war to end with a negotiated settlement, right?

That's why you're just endlessly manufacturing silly justifications to not even try.

Many such cases.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Because your entire argument is fundamentally flawed and based on the notion that Putin might offer something that he hasn't offered before, despite making absolutely no indications of doing so and if anything is doubling down. To assume he's going to suddenly change is, frankly, absurd.

You know how you would find out if this was correct?

By doing negotiations, lol.

But you don't want to do that because you don't actually want the war to end with a negotiated settlement, right?

That's why you're just endlessly manufacturing silly justifications to not even try.

Many such cases.

Except that Russia has not shown any willingness to compromise, whatsoever. That you don't know that's the sort of thing that has to happen before any negotiations take place speaks volumes.

How much baling twine have you used to make all those strawmen now?

[Ralin]

The problem I'm seeing here is that yeah, despite his public statements Putin would probably be willing to accept something other than the complete destruction of Ukraine and Ukranian culture as a collective entity since his public statements probably include some degree of posturing. But opening negotiations would also serve as confirmation that if he stays the course long enough the Ukrainian government will eventually agree to eat shit and accept a negotiated settlement that amounts to a partial surrender. Hanging on and hoping that the US steps in directly or Putin is overthrown or something else happens that makes actual victory possible may be a longshot, but backing down would ensure it.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Because your entire argument is fundamentally flawed and based on the notion that Putin might offer something that he hasn't offered before, despite making absolutely no indications of doing so and if anything is doubling down. To assume he's going to suddenly change is, frankly, absurd.

If we're being honest, Ukraine has no hope of getting better terms via strength at arms so what does losing a slow bloody meatgrinder of a war get them in the end besides, at best, a pyrrhic victory?

If we assume that's true, losing gets them the same thing as surrendering does- Ukraine ceases to exist.

[J]

That's one of the things that doesn't come up in these discussions; the viability of post conflict Ukraine. The longer the conflict goes on, the fewer workers in the economy afterwards, and the more rebuilding required. A fucked up Ukraine may just wind up as someone's economic vassal.

At this point they may need to pray for a Marshall Plan.

Unfortunately they're getting the Blackrock Plan. Blackrock, JP Morgan, and the usual capitalist vultures are already lining up to asset strip the nation and enslave it to their new corporate masters. They're planning to do the same thing to the Ukraine that they tried to do to Russia until Putin was able to put a stop to it.
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/07/17/t ... y-the-war/

Excerpt:

Western multinationals had long had their eyes on Ukraine’s vast agricultural wealth, but a 2001 moratorium on the sale of land to foreigners had always represented an obstacle to unrestrained privatisation. As post-Maidan governments turned again to the IMF for financing, aid was conditioned on a series of land reforms that would finally allow foreign corporations to acquire vast tracts of the country’s farmland. In 2020, Zelenskyy gave in to the IMF’s demands and finally repealed the moratorium.

“Agribusiness interests and oligarchs will be the primary beneficiaries of such reform,” said Olena Borodina of the Ukrainian Rural Development Network. “This will only further marginalise smallholder farmers and risks severing them from their most valuable resource.” But the World Bank could barely contain its excitement, gushing: “This is, without exaggeration, a historic event.” Even though the new law isn’t set to come into force until next year, US and Western European agrobusinesses have already bought up millions of hectares of Ukraine’s farmland — with 10 private companies reportedly controlling most of it.

[3-Body Problem]

If we assume that's true, losing gets them the same thing as surrendering does- Ukraine ceases to exist.

One of these possibilities at least allows for a sizable Ukrainian diaspora to pick up and rebuild elsewhere. The other sees the ruined corpse of a nation disrespectfully buried after a futile struggle. I know which one I'd prefer.

[Ralin]

Because your entire argument is fundamentally flawed and based on the notion that Putin might offer something that he hasn't offered before, despite making absolutely no indications of doing so and if anything is doubling down. To assume he's going to suddenly change is, frankly, absurd.

I think you're being kinda silly taking wartime rhetoric at face value and treating Putin not offering to negotiate as evidence that he won't, honestly.

[Vympel]

Except that Russia has not shown any willingness to compromise-

The Russians have said they're willing to negotiate. The scope of that is only to be determined if you actually conduct negotiations. You're just doing the broken record thing now. You haven't made a single new point in posts now. All you're doing is finding umpteen new ways to say "Russia is not willing to compromise".

You don't know that, and it would cost absolutely nothing to see if its true or not by attempting to negotiate. Its literally just having a fucking meeting, my man. That's all it is!

At no stage in your stubborn broken record routine have you engaged with this point, because as far as I can tell, for you this is about making up reasons to justify why the war should continue. You simply don't want there to be any negotiations.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

If we assume that's true, losing gets them the same thing as surrendering does- Ukraine ceases to exist.

One of these possibilities at least allows for a sizable Ukrainian diaspora to pick up and rebuild elsewhere. The other sees the ruined corpse of a nation disrespectfully buried after a futile struggle. I know which one I'd prefer.

Is 6 million+ sizable enough for you? That's how many have fled the country so far.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Except that Russia has not shown any willingness to compromise-

The Russians have said they're willing to negotiate. The scope of that is only to be determined if you actually conduct negotiations. You're just doing the broken record thing now. You haven't made a single new point in posts now. All you're doing is finding umpteen new ways to say "Russia is not willing to compromise".

You don't know that, and it would cost absolutely nothing to see if its true or not by attempting to negotiate. Its literally just having a fucking meeting, my man. That's all it is!

At no stage in your stubborn broken record routine have you engaged with this point, because as far as I can tell, for you this is about making up reasons to justify why the war should continue. You simply don't want there to be any negotiations.

What's abundantly clear is that what you don't know could fill a warehouse. Congratulations, you've gone from merely making strawman after strawman, now you're projecting too

[Vympel]

Congratulations, you've gone from merely making strawman after strawman, now you're projecting too

This doesn't even make sense lmao. What is being projected? Am I the one who keeps insisting negotiations are impossible? Please explain yourself, this is baffling.

If you could specifically identify what the strawmen you're referring to as well, that would be great.

[3-Body Problem]

Is 6 million+ sizable enough for you? That's how many have fled the country so far.

If the war is already lost, or at least unwinnable, I'd rather see every soul left in Ukraine fleeing into the EU. Better a life in exile than death by shell or bullet. I don't think a long deadly stalemate is ever worth fighting for and I simply can't see this war going any other way.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Congratulations, you've gone from merely making strawman after strawman, now you're projecting too

This doesn't even make sense lmao. What is being projected? Am I the one who keeps insisting negotiations are impossible? Please explain yourself, this is baffling.

If you could specifically identify what the strawmen you're referring to as well, that would be great.

This:

But you don't want to do that because you don't actually want the war to end with a negotiated settlement, right?

You're remanufacturing the same one, over and over again. That's two things, are you going to go for a hat trick?

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Is 6 million+ sizable enough for you? That's how many have fled the country so far.

If the war is already lost, or at least unwinnable, I'd rather see every soul left in Ukraine fleeing into the EU. Better a life in exile than death by shell or bullet. I don't think a long deadly stalemate is ever worth fighting for and I simply can't see this war going any other way.

Is it lost or unwinnable though?

[Vympel]

But you don't want to do that because you don't actually want the war to end with a negotiated settlement, right?

If it's not a strawman, perhaps you could explain why it is then that you continue to stubbornly insist that negotiations are impossible, even though it would cost the parties absolutely nothing but literally going to a meeting to be sure?

It wouldn't be necessary to speculate on the reasons for your insistence that negotiations should not be tried if you offered up a cogent reason beyond rote repetition of your fervent belief they are impossible.

Also, I note you didn't answer what is being projected, either, so I can only assume this was just some nonsense you said for wont of something more meaningful to say?

[3-Body Problem]

Is it lost or unwinnable though?

I asked you what you thought it would take for Ukraine to win and you had nothing to say. So, either shut up or answer the very simple questions posed:

1) Given what we have seen of their war-making capability thus far, which includes support from the West, do you think Ukraine can defeat Russia?

2) If you see Ukraine defeating Russia what does that victory look like?

3) If you don't think Ukraine will defeat Russia what benefit does Ukraine gain by continuing the fight?

4) A year from now do you feel like Ukraine will be stronger relative to their current strength or weaker?

[The Sisko]

Is 6 million+ sizable enough for you? That's how many have fled the country so far.

If the war is already lost, or at least unwinnable, I'd rather see every soul left in Ukraine fleeing into the EU. Better a life in exile than death by shell or bullet. I don't think a long deadly stalemate is ever worth fighting for and I simply can't see this war going any other way.

Is it lost or unwinnable though?

Vympel said earlier that not every war is the 2nd World War, but even in that war, the USSR lost millions in months and kept going ANYWAY. People who expect a plucky Ukrainian victory when massively outnumbered the way Ukraine is are living in Wehraboo fantasy land, where even the Nazis couldn't do it despite harvesting and killing millions of fresh and ripe USSR troops due to Stalin's incompetence, among other things.

So let's ask ourselves, seriously, how many Russians will each Ukrainian soldier have to kill to win? Do you expect each Ukrainian soldier to achieve a 7:1 kill ratio, which would come close to the Wehrmacht in WW2? Do you think that, just maybe, when you're looking to Nazi wet dreams to find success, you've already lost?

And in case you're wondering why I didn't respond to your accusations that I'm 'paid' to post on a dead Star Wars discussion forum, it's because it's the kind of insane, made-up bullshit that anyone participating in this discussion should expect from the Ukrainian hysterics occupying this thread.

Here's how Russia wins the war against Ukraine: waits. But please, share with the west your plan, given the course of the war (in reality, that is), your genius is urgently needed, General.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

But you don't want to do that because you don't actually want the war to end with a negotiated settlement, right?

If it's not a strawman, perhaps you could explain why it is then that you continue to stubbornly insist that negotiations are impossible, even though it would cost the parties absolutely nothing but literally going to a meeting to be sure?

It wouldn't be necessary to speculate on the reasons for your insistence that negotiations should not be tried if you offered up a cogent reason beyond rote repetition of your fervent belief they are impossible.

Also, I note you didn't answer what is being projected, either, so I can only assume this was just some nonsense you said for wont of something more meaningful to say?

Is accusing me of acting like a broken record, while acting like a broken record not the very definition of projecting?

Perhaps because like you, Putin has brought nothing new to the table. All he has said is that he is "willing" to negotiate. Do you have the faintest idea of why negotiations broke down in the first place? Evidently not. Russia’s idea of Ukraine as an integral part of itself was incompatible with Ukrainian nationalism. At the same time, Ukraine’s claim, backed by the West, to total sovereignty in foreign policy, is incompatible with Russia’s historical conception of its security needs. The disparity between these two mental fabrics is the biggest structural obstacle to peace.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Is it lost or unwinnable though?

I asked you what you thought it would take for Ukraine to win and you had nothing to say. So, either shut up or answer the very simple questions posed:

Fuck off, you don't get to tell me what to do, asshole.

[Gandalf]

Unfortunately they're getting the Blackrock Plan. Blackrock, JP Morgan, and the usual capitalist vultures are already lining up to asset strip the nation and enslave it to their new corporate masters. They're planning to do the same thing to the Ukraine that they tried to do to Russia until Putin was able to put a stop to it.
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/07/17/t ... y-the-war/

If the war goes on longer, they can presumably get the country cheaper. I guess that explains why Biden isn't trying to broker peace.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

If the war is already lost, or at least unwinnable, I'd rather see every soul left in Ukraine fleeing into the EU. Better a life in exile than death by shell or bullet. I don't think a long deadly stalemate is ever worth fighting for and I simply can't see this war going any other way.

Is it lost or unwinnable though?

Vympel said earlier that not every war is the 2nd World War, but even in that war, the USSR lost millions in months and kept going ANYWAY. People who expect a plucky Ukrainian victory when massively outnumbered the way Ukraine is are living in Wehraboo fantasy land, where even the Nazis couldn't do it despite harvesting and killing millions of fresh and ripe USSR troops due to Stalin's incompetence, among other things.

So let's ask ourselves, seriously, how many Russians will each Ukrainian soldier have to kill to win? Do you expect each Ukrainian soldier to achieve a 7:1 kill ratio, which would come close to the Wehrmacht in WW2? Do you think that, just maybe, when you're looking to Nazi wet dreams to find success, you've already lost?

And in case you're wondering why I didn't respond to your accusations that I'm 'paid' to post on a dead Star Wars discussion forum, it's because it's the kind of insane, made-up bullshit that anyone participating in this discussion should expect from the Ukrainian hysterics occupying this thread.

Here's how Russia wins the war against Ukraine: waits. But please, share with the west your plan, given the course of the war (in reality, that is), your genius is urgently needed, General.

This coming from the guy who said this whole thing was America's fault? It's immediately clear whose side you are on.

[The Sisko]

Is it lost or unwinnable though?

Vympel said earlier that not every war is the 2nd World War, but even in that war, the USSR lost millions in months and kept going ANYWAY. People who expect a plucky Ukrainian victory when massively outnumbered the way Ukraine is are living in Wehraboo fantasy land, where even the Nazis couldn't do it despite harvesting and killing millions of fresh and ripe USSR troops due to Stalin's incompetence, among other things.

So let's ask ourselves, seriously, how many Russians will each Ukrainian soldier have to kill to win? Do you expect each Ukrainian soldier to achieve a 7:1 kill ratio, which would come close to the Wehrmacht in WW2? Do you think that, just maybe, when you're looking to Nazi wet dreams to find success, you've already lost?

And in case you're wondering why I didn't respond to your accusations that I'm 'paid' to post on a dead Star Wars discussion forum, it's because it's the kind of insane, made-up bullshit that anyone participating in this discussion should expect from the Ukrainian hysterics occupying this thread.

Here's how Russia wins the war against Ukraine: waits. But please, share with the west your plan, given the course of the war (in reality, that is), your genius is urgently needed, General.

This coming from the guy who said this whole thing was America's fault? It's immediately clear whose side you are on.

You've gone from attempting to fuse talking points into something cogent to just telling people to shut up. Wow, sure showed me!