WTF Are the North Koreans Smoking Now?

[LaCroix]

This might be a situation where the best defense would be a good offense. Namely, if it seems like an attack is probable then take out as many launchers as you can in a crippling first strike, and hope your iron dome like system can catch the ones you miss.

True. And that's why the Norks are telling the US that they will go all-out at the first sign of this maybe happening...

[Stark]

Its just amazing that people can honestly say 'the response to this deterrant or defensive measure is EVEN MORE THREATS' and not see that this is either a poor decision or actually playing into the hands of the other party.

We're not threatening North Korea, we're just constantly talking about all the ways we need to utterly blow them up. What do they have to be afraid of? Why do they want nukes? Clearly they are paranoid.

[PhilosopherOfSorts]

So the US does exercises as a thinly veiled threat, reminding them that our bombers can reach them with very little notice, and they up the saber-rattling by promising a preemptive strike if anyone they don't like so much as twitches.

Is it OK to worry just a bit now?

Are you in North Korea? Because when the Norks are bullshitting on TV, and the Americans respond by actually going and actually doing an actual military exercise, yeah that's a cause for concern. Worry, even. Go as far as to be... scared. Seriously the Norks are upping the ante?

Apparently people think that flexing your muscles intimidates a guy. The guy is already intimidated by the muscle itself; flexing it won't do anything further, except cementing the guy's fear that you're about to kick his ass. Am I saying what Stark tries to say already, or I need more effort?

Wasn't Foal Eagle planned months ago? Like, well before this current North Korean hissy fit even started?

[Skywalker_T-65]

The exercise yes. Not sure about the B2's though.

[Saxtonite]

1. the DPRK population in general is more educated then you think. Even internal north korean propaganda admits this.
2. the DPRK in general will not want to modernize or change as that apparently will make them a shittier version of South Korea.
see this video for more: http://www.booktv.org/Watch/11315/The+C ... tters.aspx

EDIT: I seriously think this is more posturing. Granted, more extreme but still.

[Broomstick]

Having been away for a few days I'll just say "WTF are the Americans smoking now?" after that B2 stuff. Sure, it's time for the annual US/ROK military exercises and no doubt some of the Nork bluster is from that (it's a yearly event/occurrence) but B2's, guys? Seriously? I understand the utility of dry runs and drills, BUT -

1) No one doubts the B2 can fly halfway around the world and accurately drop bombs. They've demonstrated this in combat. Was this particular drill really necessary?
2) Since when do we tell people we're flying the B2's anywhere? The only time in the past I can recall their flights being announced is when the cruise over domestic airshows. Saying "hey, we flew these over South Korea!" is a departure from SOP.
3) Seriously, guys, WTF? You KNEW Kim Jung Un would regard this as provocation. And if you didn't know that we need someone else in your jobs.
4) Seriously, guys, WTF? Two wars aren't enough? Whose brilliant idea was this, to ratchet up the situation another notch?

I have this (completely useless) urge to say "Boys, enough of this, go stand in opposite corners and stop jabbing each other with pointy sticks"

I really do hope this stays as threats and bluster.

[Ahriman238]

As long as you are not in Korea you are safe. We may be closing in on the end of North Korea.

So Ahriman, when someone is making threats, do you believe making far more credible and destructive threats is constructive? I mean I know you're probably in the 'never been in a fight' camp, but once someone has made threats replying with more threats (particularly when you are by far the stronger, more violent party) is not how you defuse a situation.

...

No, Stark. I don't think threats and escalation are at all constructive. When have I said or implied that I did?

The sad thing is, I can see someone in the military thinking "We need to show the Norks they aren't the only ones with power. It's the only way to curb their aggression." What I can't see is why anyone else let that pass.

[Zaune]

I have this (completely useless) urge to say "Boys, enough of this, go stand in opposite corners and stop jabbing each other with pointy sticks".

That makes two of us, though I personally would also throw them a tape measure and tell them to drop their trousers and settle it once and for all.

[Sky Captain]

The biggest concern now with North Korea and US escalating this whole situation by rattling sabres at each other is the possibility of all out shooting starting by accident. For example North Korea crappy radar sets throw a glitch showing an incoming bombers or nervous radar operators misinterpret a civilian air traffic for an incoming attack or some other fuckup of that kind setting this whole powder keg off.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Now North Korea has all but declared war against the South; they just don't realise that the war they're so desperate to start is not going to end well for them

[Sharp-kun]

Now North Korea has all but declared war against the South; they just don't realise that the war they're so desperate to start is not going to end well for them

Technically they've been at war for a while.


They don't want to start a war, what they want is to intimidate everyone enough to reduce sanctions etc. The problem with this is that 1, people know this, and 2, no one's playing along.

[Stark]

'Not playing along' would be not responding. Responding with more threats isn't 'not playing along', it's stupid.

Do American decision makers cunningly user this stuff to build up authoritarian support at home and give more money to their friends in defence contractors, or are they just cowardly and myopic hypocrites? In the end, it doesn't matter for e people that die.

Luckily, they're only Koreans.

[Kane Starkiller]

I find it self contradictory to claim that North Korean regime isn't "crazy" or irrational and at the same time suggest that they should be treated the same way as a drunk rambling away at a bar: don't make eye contact, don't engage in the argument with him, just keep calm and ignore him and he will go away.

Maybe they won't go away just like Argenitinian military junta didn't walk away from Falklands. They also weren't crazy in the sense they were smearing their feces on bathroom walls but attacking a nuclear power over some rocks in the Atlantic is not what I would call behaving predictably.

North Koreans have demonstrated they are willing to go beyond mere aggressive rhetoric as the recent ship sinking and artillery attacks demonstrate.
If we posit they did that after careful "rational" consideration of risks and rewards and not because they got emotional or crazy then a strong show of force is more likely to make them recalculate their position than crazily lunge into an attack.

[chitoryu12]

Also, exactly who are we assuming is in command of North Korea? If Kim Jong-Un is supreme leader, then is everything his will? How much control does the military have?

We seem to be generally painting each country as "crazy" or "bad" or whatever, as if they're some kind of gestalt.

[Broomstick]

'Not playing along' would be not responding. Responding with more threats isn't 'not playing along', it's stupid.

Do American decision makers cunningly user this stuff to build up authoritarian support at home and give more money to their friends in defence contractors, or are they just cowardly and myopic hypocrites? In the end, it doesn't matter for e people that die.

No, it's a clash of two cultures. Each side is expecting the other to respond in a particular way, and neither side is obliging. The US side thinks strutting their stuff will intimidate the North Koreans into compliance (nevermind that's never really been successful in reverse). The North Koreans think that it's the same old game and they can extort stuff from the rest of the world by waving their big stick.

Luckily, they're only Koreans.

Nice of you to ignore the approximately 60,000-100,000 Americans living in South Korea at any one time (that includes both military and civilians), most of whom are in or near Seoul which, as we all know, is likely to bear the brunt of North Korean aggression should shooting/bombing recommence.

[Broomstick]

Also, exactly who are we assuming is in command of North Korea? If Kim Jong-Un is supreme leader, then is everything his will? How much control does the military have?

I'm not sure anyone outside North Korea really knows. It's an on-going question just how much authority Jung Un has, whether he's pure figurehead or actually makes decisions. Even if he has the role of dictator/king, he would still have a close circle of advisers capable of wielding some influence. I'm pretty sure his grandfather actually was the main power, but whether his father and Jung Un are anything more than figureheads...? Not sure. Most likely not at either extreme, but one of the problems here is that it's not known who and how many are actually making the decisions.

[Simon_Jester]

'Not playing along' would be not responding. Responding with more threats isn't 'not playing along', it's stupid.

Do American decision makers cunningly user this stuff to build up authoritarian support at home and give more money to their friends in defence contractors, or are they just cowardly and myopic hypocrites? In the end, it doesn't matter for e people that die.

Luckily, they're only Koreans.

Which Koreans are dying? Do you refer to North Korean citizens dying now, or to Koreans of both nations dying in a hypothetical war?

Also, exactly who are we assuming is in command of North Korea? If Kim Jong-Un is supreme leader, then is everything his will? How much control does the military have?

We seem to be generally painting each country as "crazy" or "bad" or whatever, as if they're some kind of gestalt.

Very natural thing to do. And yes, irrational.

The question is, does it work? Sometimes, modeling nations as people works- because a lot of national motivations do make sense when distilled to the individual level. And differences in national policy can sometimes be modeled as the actions of one person or a small group.

Where it fails is when one creates a national stereotype not supported by the facts: "Boronia is a cowardly country, and will fold when we make a decisive surprise attack" when in fact Boronia has a history of military interventions and sees itself as a powerful nation that chooses not to get involved in really major wars. Suddenly the Boronians are cranking up for total war mobilization. Oops.

So the question is, is calling North Korea "crazy" supported by their behavior? If the nation's behavior is consistently X-like, then a prediction we make based on "they'll keep acting like X" is probably better than the alternatives.

[CaptHawkeye]

Which Koreans are dying? Do you refer to North Korean citizens dying now, or to Koreans of both nations dying in a hypothetical war?

He didn't state "North/South" prior, so obviously he wasn't making a distinction. Moreover, if the FUCKING DAY should ever come that you decide to comprehend what someone is saying in a post, rather than injecting your own fan fiction, I'll dine on my underwear.

Stark's saying that western posture-politics have been killing Koreans for years and at the rate they're going Koreans are still going to get killed. But who cares because they're just foreigners right?

Nice of you to ignore the approximately 60,000-100,000 Americans living in South Korea at any one time (that includes both military and civilians), most of whom are in or near Seoul which, as we all know, is likely to bear the brunt of North Korean aggression should shooting/bombing recommence.

Their are also around 700,000 Chinese living there. Nice of YOU to ignore them. We're Americans though right? I forgot, we only care about ourselves and whatever minority state our agenda has decided to make a pet out of today.

I know with you it's not that though. No, it's just that you don't know jack shit about what you're talking about. I mean you really can't bug yourself to glance at a demographics article before talking out of your ass?

[Stark]

No, it's a clash of two cultures.

Thanks for the revelation. I'd never have made a series of posts about... oh wait.

I'm glad you have grown up enough to equate these two things. Too bad Americans can't understand that threatening the weak with standover tactics while totally ignoring the rights of other nations ends up making you hated and feared, I guess.

Nice of you to ignore the approximately 60,000-100,000 Americans living in South Korea at any one time (that includes both military and civilians), most of whom are in or near Seoul which, as we all know, is likely to bear the brunt of North Korean aggression should shooting/bombing recommence.

Someone needs to take this post and put it in the dictionary under 'myopia' or 'selfishness' or 'proving my point'. Wow, 60,000 Americans! I mean tens of millions of Koreans, but y'know, who cares about THEM. They are even their countries, but I guess that's only by the grace of America. 'North Korean aggression', lol.

The world needs more pants-pissing hilarity like '200 killed, one was American, WHAT A TRAGEDY FOR AMERICA'.

I wonder if ever in history the world hegemon responsibility has ever rested on a culture not fundamentally insecure, at least in the last few thousand years. Imagine an ideal world where the power was used to create peace and resolve conflicts. What a pipe dream that'd be!

[Ahriman238]

Very natural thing to do. And yes, irrational.

The question is, does it work? Sometimes, modeling nations as people works- because a lot of national motivations do make sense when distilled to the individual level. And differences in national policy can sometimes be modeled as the actions of one person or a small group.

Where it fails is when one creates a national stereotype not supported by the facts: "Boronia is a cowardly country, and will fold when we make a decisive surprise attack" when in fact Boronia has a history of military interventions and sees itself as a powerful nation that chooses not to get involved in really major wars. Suddenly the Boronians are cranking up for total war mobilization. Oops.

So the question is, is calling North Korea "crazy" supported by their behavior? If the nation's behavior is consistently X-like, then a prediction we make based on "they'll keep acting like X" is probably better than the alternatives.

Yes, modeling nations as people can work. Calling North Korea crazy doesn't, because crazy people don't behave rationally. Just calling someone crazy is dismissing the possibility that there is a logic behind their actions that can be understood.

Their are also around 700,000 Chinese living there. Nice of YOU to ignore them. We're Americans though right? I forgot, we only care about ourselves and whatever minority state our agenda has decided to make a pet out of today.

I know with you it's not that though. No, it's just that you don't know jack shit about what you're talking about. I mean you really can't bug yourself to glance at a demographics article before talking out of your ass?

Why in all the nine hells is anyone even discussing demographics? Who cares how many Americans or Chinese are in South Korea? There are over 200 million people in the firing line if we see this thing to it's final stupidity. You don't have to an imperialist, tribalist bastard to not want that many people to die. How do you and Stark not get this?

I wonder if ever in history the world hegemon responsibility has ever rested on a culture not fundamentally insecure, at least in the last few thousand years. Imagine an ideal world where the power was used to create peace and resolve conflicts. What a pipe dream that'd be!

Sure, they were called the British Empire. You should have heard of them, still around just not controlling the globe so much. There were others before, but they didn't control nearly as much of the world, and they're a bit hard to find these days. Would you like to try that again?

[CaptHawkeye]

Why in all the nine hells is anyone even discussing demographics? Who cares how many Americans or Chinese are in South Korea? There are over 200 million people in the firing line if we see this thing to it's final stupidity. You don't have to an imperialist, tribalist bastard to not want that many people to die. How do you and Stark not get this?

Look I know you're desperate to be relevant to a thread you've proven utterly irrelevant to but could you at least try to read more than 1 post back before you waste my time?

[Stark]

Sure, they were called the British Empire. You should have heard of them, still around just not controlling the globe so much. There were others before, but they didn't control nearly as much of the world, and they're a bit hard to find these days. Would you like to try that again?

Are you saying the British empire was one not driven by insecurity or fear and one which used its hegemon to promote positive outcomes for weaker states as a moderator?

Because that's, uh, that's an odd thing to say.

[TimothyC]

S. Korean gov't says to keep Kaesong Industrial Complex open
English.news.cn 2013-03-31 03:52:17

SEOUL, March 30 (Xinhua) -- The South Korean government said Saturday that it will not change the policy of keeping the Kaesong Industrial Complex open.

"Threat by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) to shut down the Kaesong Industrial Complex does nothing helpful to the development of the Kaesong Industrial Complex and relationship between the north and south Korea," the government reiterated after DPRK declared a "state of war" with South Korea and threatened to shut down the industrial complex earlier Saturday, the Yonhap news agency reported.

"We will do our best to ensure the safety of our workers in the Kaesong Industrial Complex. There are still about 310 South Koreans in the Kaesong Industrial Complex till now," the government stressed.

DPRK threatened Saturday to shut down a joint industrial park with South Korea if the latter continued to insult its dignity, according to DPRK's official KCNA news agency.

The industrial park, located in the DPRK border city of Kaesong, was launched in 2004 to house around 120 South Korean companies that employ some 50,000 DPRK workers.
Editor: Mu Xuequan

No boom yet, but they seem to be building toward one.

[Stark]

Your gleeful predictions of mass deaths have been pretty unreliable so far. Luckily nobody goes to a hobbit for foreign policy.

[Flagg]

This thread is fucking hilarious. In a month when nothing happens will you dumb fucks admit you're kneejerk ignoramuses or will you be hyperventilating over Kim's queefs?