Egyptians protesting across the country

[ShadowDragon8685]

Mubarak says he will step down as president in September

So who here thinks he will make it to September?

I think he may be hoping that the military will say "that's good enough, he's stepping out, let him get his affairs in order."

I expect them to say no such thing.


It looks to me like his ship of state is going down one way or another, and soon. I'd be very, very surprised if he made it to MarchSaturday.

[Broomstick]

What Mubarak doesn't seem to understand is that the Egyptian people didn't want to wait until September, they have in a sense called a special election this week and Mubarak has been "voted" out of office. They want him gone. Period.

[ShadowDragon8685]

What Mubarak doesn't seem to understand is that the Egyptian people didn't want to wait until September, they have in a sense called a special election this week and Mubarak has been "voted" out of office. They want him gone. Period.

Looks like he's leaving office in a hurry one way or another.

If he decides not to leave on his own and they have to storm the palace and remove him, what do you suppose his odds are of getting out of this alive?

That is, assuming he's not genuinely killed in the fighting (if there is any,) but actually gets captured alive. Do you reckon he'd be stood against a wall, or exiled? At this point, exiled is looking like the hot money, because as revolutions go this one has been amazingly peaceful.

If he decides to boot out of the country on Friday, how much of the treasury do you suppose he'll (successfully) take with him?


And what happens afterwords, I wonder?

[Sea Skimmer]

The Army will make him leave before it ever reaches the point of a mob storming his home; even if the mobs got that angry and violent its unlikely they’d know his exact location anyway.

[Edward Yee]

I wouldn't be surprised if Omar Suleiman was right along with the Army pushing Mubarak off of the hypothetical cliff... "sacrifice Mubarak to save the regime" and all.

[Prannon]

It's doubtful that they'd accept Omar either in the place of Mubarak. Al Jazeera's coverage the other day mentioned that Omar had pretty much sullied his name by associating himself with him. More than likely, the opposition and the protesters will demand a completely clean slate with new elections and a new president and everything that comes with it. Personally, I think that would have a good outcome so long as the military and police forces were not outright disbanded like they were in Iraq. If any sort of new government can guarantee their pay and benefits, then they'd pretty much have it in the bag.

[Lonestar]

Woohoo, educating peoples that profiteering from misery is the American way.

Especially if that misery can be kept far away and behind a pliant dictator.

Buddy, the *only* articles about the "he types, effects and quantities of weapons sold to Egypt by the US that are now being used against the protests." are the tear gas being used. War is Boring and Wired made a half ass attempt to make the US be profiteering including "low flying jet fighters"("Probably part of the F-16 fleet") as "weapons used against the protesters".

But you keep right on acting as if the Egyptian Army is rolling people over in the streets with US provided M1 Abrams and M113s.

[Zaune]

I think he may be hoping that the military will say "that's good enough, he's stepping out, let him get his affairs in order."

I expect them to say no such thing.


It looks to me like his ship of state is going down one way or another, and soon. I'd be very, very surprised if he made it to MarchSaturday.

I wouldn't be so sure. The ringleaders of the protests and the military alike have been pretty smart about how they've handled this so far, and I bet they can see the advantages of an eight-month grace period to form an interim cabinet and organise elections for Murabak's successor as clearly as I can.

[FSTargetDrone]

I look at Mubarak and say to myself, "why hang on?" This cannot possibly end well for him if he doesn't leave. Why not get out while he can, go to Europe, or even a friendly neighboring country.

Jump or be pushed.

[Prannon]

Guys, if there's one thing that has been made EXTREMELY clear to me during this whole crisis, both talking to my father and in reading articles, it's that the Egyptians aren't angry at foreigners in general or the United States in particular. Yes, El Baradei came out and said something about Obama not taking sides. Even though, in the same sentence, he said that he had great respect for the man.

When my dad was walking to the pharmacy, one very religious person with a big beard actually told him "Everything is OK! Your safety before our safety!" Dad kissed him on both cheeks and he gave him a big hug.

We were able to walk home safely without any difficulty. The Egyptians are telling us 'We love you, we want you here. Everything's fine.'

But my mother is also telling me that she went to the store and a really old Egyptian man came up to her and told her that "You are welcome in Egypt."

There's a sign we picked up on the street. 'Foreigners in Egypt are protected by the people. They are our friends and neighbors. Their civil rights is always respected... We shouted TOGETHER to end the corruption!'

We're safe. Egyptians are talking to us. A guy on a motorcycle stopped, waved, and said, 'Hello, how are you?' We chatted.

I don't know how much clearer you can get, and this is what my father, who lives in Egypt, is telling me. The articles that are reporting about how the tear gas canisters and jets and tanks were all made in the US or assembled with US parts are all missing the point, chasing after red herrings. Yeah...duh...OF COURSE they are! The US has been supplying Egypt for years! This isn't some sort of war profiteering that the US is suddenly doing on the spot, more like what the Egyptians are using simply because...that's all they've been getting for decades.

You know, criticize the US for supporting Mubarak for so long. Criticize the US for, once again, doing what it does best and propping up autocratic regimes to do their dirty work for them. But there really isn't any point to making mountains out of this because, on the ground, the Egyptians don't really care that the canisters are made in the states. They care that Mubarak has been abusing them and that he gets out as soon as possible. As far as I can tell, Mubarak has run out of options at this point. The US isn't really standing in the way, just waiting to see what happens before playing its cards.

[Simon_Jester]

I look at Mubarak and say to myself, "why hang on?" This cannot possibly end well for him if he doesn't leave. Why not get out while he can, go to Europe, or even a friendly neighboring country.

Jump or be pushed.

He's too old and too proud to face that easily. He was probably planning to die in office and pass on the de facto throne to his son, like a king. Think of him as a king and his reason for hanging on becomes more clear: there's that sense that he, specifically and personally, embodies the legitimate government.

Plus, of course, "the purple is a good burial shroud."

[ShadowDragon8685]

He's too old and too proud to face that easily. He was probably planning to die in office and pass on the de facto throne to his son, like a king. Think of him as a king and his reason for hanging on becomes more clear: there's that sense that he, specifically and personally, embodies the legitimate government.

Plus, of course, "the purple is a good burial shroud."

Hmmm...

Think there's any chance he might choose suicide rather than being ousted? 'Better to die as a king than live on as a peasant'?

[Duckie]

What? That's the dumbest thing I've heard today. I'll post a picture of me eating a hat if he does anything even vaguely like that.

[K. A. Pital]

I love some of the pictures that the internet has brought forth.

[Eframepilot]

Hmmm...

Think there's any chance he might choose suicide rather than being ousted? 'Better to die as a king than live on as a peasant'?

He did say that he would die in Egypt. But dictators generally don't kill themselves upon their overthrow unless they are facing a humiliating capture by their enemies, like Hitler. Let's just say that it's the least likely outcome at this point.

[Dartzap]

Army now saying demands have been met/made known, and that protesters should return to normality.

[eyl]

Still, it's worth it to know that the prospect of democracy in its neighbors inspires fear in Israel's government. Of course, this was already discernible from the documents released by Al-Jazeera about Operation Cast Lead, but it confirms that this extends to any democratic change, secular or religious, Palestinian or not.

It doesn't extend to "any" change, the fear is in cases where a known quantity which is more-or-less friendly to Israel changes to one which might not be, but almost certainly won't be more friendly - so from the Israeli government's POV such a change at best has no benefit and more likely is detrimental, as far as relationships with Egypt are concerned. I doubt Israel would have concerns about, say, such an uprising in Iran, or in Syria (though the latter depends on who was involved - I doubt Israel would welcome a coup by Islamist hardliners)

[ShadowDragon8685]

He did say that he would die in Egypt. But dictators generally don't kill themselves upon their overthrow unless they are facing a humiliating capture by their enemies, like Hitler. Let's just say that it's the least likely outcome at this point.

I'd certainly agree, but things as unlikely have happened in the past.

So I wouldn't bet the bank on it not happening, either. I mean, I wouldn't bet more than a few bucks, but...

So, let's change the stakes; suppose he gets ousted, captured, and told he's being exiled. Would he prefer to die in Egypt than live on (and presumably, die) elsewhere? Or do you reckon that was just hyperbole?

[K. A. Pital]

Army now saying demands have been met/made known, and that protesters should return to normality.

The moment they do it, they've lost. "Demands have been met"? Seriously? "I step down in September, but I'll put forward some corrupt crook in my place"?

[Prannon]

My dad is back online. Looks like internet has been restored.

We are still doing great the internet is as you can see back on. The police have returned to the streets...slowly. Have not see any military now for two days. We still have lots of expats still in country so we get together and share the time. My biggest problem is boredom and trying to get food, water and fuel to my desert hands.

The next big hurdle will be the banks returning to service and then public transportation. The protests have been very peaceful once the militay moved in. Really impressive. I will not speak about politics other than just about every organization left right and center want Mubarak gone and on first blush his promise to step down in September has been well received.

As for us, our safety is not in question. We have walked for exercise, shopping or visiting friends all four of these last days. The weather is beautiful and the people in the street are excited, upbeat and friendly. Our shop keepers and workers are happy to see us and let us know it.

I'll try and get some pictures from my parents posted here so you guys can take a look.

[Prannon]

WARNING! LARGE IMAGES






This tank is lost and asking for directions.





My dad is the one with the white hair.

[Prannon]

New Article from the BBC:

Clashes erupt amid Cairo protests

Clashes have erupted in Cairo between supporters of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and demonstrators calling on him to step down immediately.

Thousands of pro-Mubarak activists had surged into Cairo's Tahrir Square, dismantling barricades set up by opposition protesters.

The move followed a call by the army for people to return home after nine days of anti-government demonstrations.

Mr Mubarak has pledged he will not stand for re-election in September.

On Tuesday, hundreds of thousands had protested across the country against Mr Mubarak, the culmination of more than a week of demonstrations that have left about 300 people dead according to UN estimates.

Counter-protests

Up to 2,000 anti-Mubarak demonstrators saw out a cold night in Tahrir Square, the main focus of the protests, saying the president's pledge was insufficient and chanting: "We will not leave!" They want to see him deposed and punished.

But on Wednesday, thousands took to Cairo's streets to support him.

"You guys have made your point clear, let the man (Mubarak) take care of you until his time is up. Mubarak wants stability and we want stability as well," said Mohamed Shafik.

"Let Egyptians go home and look after their families," the 51-year-old pharmacist told Reuters news agency.

Television footage showed opposing groups facing off chanting slogans, and later fighting with fists and sticks. Some government supporters rode horses and camels and wielded whips.

BBC Middle East editor Jeremy Bowen, who is in Tahrir Square, said the clashes were becoming increasingly violent and he had seen people with nasty wounds.

The anti-Mubarak protesters have been accusing the army of moving aside to let in their pro-government rivals.

Clashes between the rival groups were also reported in Egypt's second city, Alexandria.

'Die on its soil'

In its earlier statement, the army - which is widely seen as an arbiter in the crisis - called for demonstrators to return to their homes.

"Your message has arrived, your demands became known... you are capable of bringing normal life to Egypt," said a spokesman in a message broadcast on state television.

In Tuesday night's speech, Mr Mubarak had promised to leave at the next polls, and pledged constitutional reform, saying he would devote his remaining time in power to ensuring a peaceful transition to his successor.

"This is my country. This is where I lived, I fought and defended its land, sovereignty and interests, and I will die on its soil," he said.

US President Barack Obama responded by saying an orderly transition "must begin now", while Turkey's PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Mr Mubarak should take a "different step".

Meanwhile, internet service was reportedly returning to the country, having been cut off for days by the government.

State television also reported an easing of a nationwide curfew - with restricted hours from 1700-0700 (1500-0500GMT) rather than 1500-0800.

State media reported that parliament had been suspended until the results of last year's contested elections were revised.

It added that the parliamentary speaker had called for Mr Mubarak's proposed constitutional reforms to be implemented within two-and-a-half months.

'Not enough'

Opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei dismissed Mr Mubarak's move as "a trick" to stay in power, and Tahrir Square protesters have vowed to continue their demonstrations until Mr Mubarak quits.

Abdelhalim Kandil, leader of Egypt's Kifaya (Enough) opposition movement, said Mr Mubarak's offer not to serve a sixth term was not enough.

"I will tell you very simply that there is an unprecedented popular movement that rejects the presence of the president on a scope that has not been seen before, that is calling for the will of the people to be imposed," he said.

If Mr Mubarak does not step down, demonstrators have planned to march on the presidential palace.

Some demonstrators said they did not trust their 82-year-old leader to enact the necessary constitutional changes.

"The speech is useless and only inflames our anger," one protester, Shadi Morkos, told Reuters. "We will continue to protest."

However, other Egyptians said they believed that Mr Mubarak's offer could be a suitable compromise.

Omneya Okasha, a resident from Alexandria, told the BBC she believed that sudden change could lead to "more drastic consequences".

"I find this a stable solution something that suits both sides - a win-win situation."

[erik_t]

Guys, if there's one thing that has been made EXTREMELY clear to me during this whole crisis, both talking to my father and in reading articles, it's that the Egyptians aren't angry at foreigners in general or the United States in particular. Yes, El Baradei came out and said something about Obama not taking sides. Even though, in the same sentence, he said that he had great respect for the man.
...
I don't know how much clearer you can get, and this is what my father, who lives in Egypt, is telling me. The articles that are reporting about how the tear gas canisters and jets and tanks were all made in the US or assembled with US parts are all missing the point, chasing after red herrings. Yeah...duh...OF COURSE they are! The US has been supplying Egypt for years! This isn't some sort of war profiteering that the US is suddenly doing on the spot, more like what the Egyptians are using simply because...that's all they've been getting for decades.

I'm sure we all appreciate what you've relayed to us, and will continue to look forward to updates, but please remember that Egypt is bigger than a city block and your father is a sample size of one.

[Big Orange]

What threat does the Islamic Brotherhood pose to Egypt and the region in long run? Remember half of Egyptians are illiterate and so provide a good recruitment ground for terrorist numpties and the Brotherhood has many "charity" groups in the massive slums. However Egypt 2011 is not really Iran 1979, so imposing direct comparisons is misleading or even dangerous, and the West (or Israel) acting like Egypt is going to slide into being like 1980s Iran could be a self-fulfilling prophecy and Egypt's sitting on a global choke point (the Suez Canal).

And since all eyes are on Egypt, I've dug what's happening in Tunisia, after the revolution there has mostly blown over (leaving 200 dead), apparently the Tunisian security services are trying to disrupt Tunisia's transition into being a democracy. Some people see what's happening in North Africa as another strategic opening for China, who are already ploughing a lot of resources and people into the continent, and America's patsies like Mubarak are falling out of favour.

[Phantasee]

I attended a lecture by Jonas Haertle from the UN about the Global Compact and the PRiME program (our school signed on). He mentioned that democracy is not necessarily the expected outcome of these revolutions. Democracy needs institutions and nurturing. Basically, as long as people's needs and demands are met, the form of government doesn't matter as much. He pointed to China as an example of an autocratic regime that is improving the standard of living and quality of life for its people without being a democracy. So while it is possible for a democratic form of government to be an outcome, we should not necessarily expect it over any other form. At the end of the day, if the people of Egypt are satisfied that their needs have been met, they will be satisfied with whatever form of government is in power.