SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Hopefully once he assumes office, Biden doesn't do a Ford and issue a blanket pardon for all the shit Trump has done, and instead leave him to face justice or whatever passes for it.

[Gandalf]

Hopefully once he assumes office, Biden doesn't do a Ford and issue a blanket pardon for all the shit Trump has done, and instead leave him to face justice or whatever passes for it.

I think it's more likely that they'll do as Obama did after Bush, and just not do shit.

[Solauren]

Hopefully once he assumes office, Biden doesn't do a Ford and issue a blanket pardon for all the shit Trump has done, and instead leave him to face justice or whatever passes for it.

I think it's more likely that they'll do as Obama did after Bush, and just not do shit.

I think he'll let the various agencies that want a piece of Trump go after him. On crimes including obstruction....

[Soontir C'boath]

Just wanted to post this for the hell of it.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Hopefully once he assumes office, Biden doesn't do a Ford and issue a blanket pardon for all the shit Trump has done, and instead leave him to face justice or whatever passes for it.

I think it's more likely that they'll do as Obama did after Bush, and just not do shit.

I think he'll let the various agencies that want a piece of Trump go after him. On crimes including obstruction....

Fingers crossed, I read that in theory that Trump could resign just before his term ends so that Pence could pardon him.

[bilateralrope]

Twitter will not protect Donald Trump's account when he leaves Oval Office

US President Donald Trump will be subject to the same Twitter Inc rules as any other user when President-elect Joe Biden takes office on January 20, the social media company confirmed this week.

Twitter places "public interest" notices on some rule-breaking tweets from "world leaders" that would otherwise be removed. Such tweets from political candidates and elected or government officials are instead hidden by a warning and Twitter takes actions to restrict their reach.

But the company said this treatment does not apply to former office holders.

"This policy framework applies to current world leaders and candidates for office, and not private citizens when they no longer hold these positions," a Twitter spokesman said in a statement.

It has added multiple warnings and labels to tweets from the @realDonaldTrump account, including many since Tuesday's election that made unfounded allegations of voting fraud. It first hid one of his tweets behind a "public interest" label in May when the president violated the company's policy against glorifying violence.

Under Facebook Inc's policies, it appears that after Biden takes office in January, Trump's posts would also no longer be exempt from review by Facebook's third-party fact-checking partners.

Facebook's online policy says it defines politicians, whose posts are exempt from fact-checking, as candidates running for office, current office holders and many of their cabinet appointees, along with political parties and their leaders.

It says "former candidates for office or former officials continue to be covered by our third-party fact-checking programme."

Facebook did not reply to Reuters questions about how it would treat Trump's account.

Biden's victory on Saturday in Pennsylvania put the Democratic presidential candidate over the threshold of 270 Electoral College votes needed to clinch the presidency. Republican Trump has not conceded and has vowed to challenge the outcome in court.

Reuters

Can Trump go a full day before getting banned from Twitter after he loses protection there ?

[Napoleon the Clown]

I think it's more likely that they'll do as Obama did after Bush, and just not do shit.

I think he'll let the various agencies that want a piece of Trump go after him. On crimes including obstruction....

Fingers crossed, I read that in theory that Trump could resign just before his term ends so that Pence could pardon him.

I really don't expect him to do that. Not out of any sort of ethics or something vaguely resembling ethics. But because I cannot see him letting go of power period. He's the kind of wanna-be despot that's the best to get if you've gotta get a wanna-be despot. The stupid kind. Resigning would mean accepting defeat, accepting that he won't be able to stay in power and dodge responsibility.

And even if he did resign, I can't see New York deciding to let him off the hook for the state-level crimes. Florida's politicians will have wrung out what they need from him, so they won't have any reason to not just hand him the fuck over. Dodging federal charges via pardon is certainly possible, but a POTUS can't pardon charges filed at a state level.

[Knife]

I can see him throwing a hissy and resigning so you can say he left and not 'thrown out'.

[Solauren]

I think it's more likely that they'll do as Obama did after Bush, and just not do shit.

I think he'll let the various agencies that want a piece of Trump go after him. On crimes including obstruction....

Fingers crossed, I read that in theory that Trump could resign just before his term ends so that Pence could pardon him.

That assumes -
1 - Pence would pardon him. Pence would have no one to pardon him, and he probably doesn't want to sacrifice himself to save Trump
Pence could instead order his immediate arrest as a peace-offering to the new administration. Pence knows where the skeletons are buried, and handing over Trump with full details, in exchange for immunity, sounds like a good idea to me.

2 - He doesn't decide to dig in, and remain in the White house, with privately hired guards, and force President Biden to remove him by force.

3 - Presidential pardons apply to crimes you haven't been convicted of. (I don't think that would hold up in court). My reasoning - Pardons are for crimes you have been convicted of, or confessed to. Trump would have to confess to alot of stuff first, which would ruin his family and brand.
If he was convicted, he could scream 'set up/rigged' and his base would believe it. Him confessing to get a pardon? Ruins him.
(I admit, I could be way off base)

4 - Trump doesn't just leave the country on a 'state visit' somewhere and stays there to run out the clock to avoid arrest and prosecution, and (in his mind) effectively cripple the government.

[bilateralrope]

On those assumptions

1 - Good point. Also of note is that, once someone is pardoned, then they can't plead the fifth. So if Pence pardons Trump, then Trump can be forced to testify against Pence.

2 - Finding guards willing to stay for that seems difficult. How much money does Trump actually have ?

3 - Everything I've heard from legal annalists says that pardons can apply without a conviction. Or even before the person has been charged. The only restriction that's likely to apply is that the crime must come before the pardon.

4 - The question becomes, who will accept his state visit ?
Because there are two big things that would make anyone worry:
- Everyone is going to know this is an attempt for him to avoid justice. So the country he's visiting will need a reason to be willing to shelter him.
- Trump's administration has had three Covid19 outbreaks in the White House. So a Trump visit is a direct threat to the health of that countries citizens.

[Solauren]

#4 - North Korea. Then, just after Biden is sworn in, Trump 'dies', but in actuality, he's being worked over for information. (If he doesn't provide it willingly)

[bilateralrope]

North Korea. The country that decided to use landmines to keep Covid19 from entering the country from China. Letting Trump in might be too risky for them.

As for extracting information from Trump, that would be assuming that he remembers anything of value.

[Darth Yan]

I think it's more likely that they'll do as Obama did after Bush, and just not do shit.

I think he'll let the various agencies that want a piece of Trump go after him. On crimes including obstruction....

Fingers crossed, I read that in theory that Trump could resign just before his term ends so that Pence could pardon him.

That's only for federal crimes. State crimes a presidential pardon can't do jack shit. And in NY there are a LOT of people who are closing in on Trump for that. If Duetsche Bank seizes his resources (very possible) Trump's in even more trouble.

[Solauren]

North Korea. The country that decided to use landmines to keep Covid19 from entering the country from China. Letting Trump in might be too risky for them.

As for extracting information from Trump, that would be assuming that he remembers anything of value.

Getting Trump to stay there would be a massive political move for North Korea. They'd just have to keep him in isolation for a few weeks.

And all Trump would have to do is bring lots of paper copies of information with him. The kind he'd have on Air Force One.

[Elfdart]

Fingers crossed, I read that in theory that Trump could resign just before his term ends so that Pence could pardon him.

I predicted that scenario earlier. While it won't save Il Douchebag from state charges, it would give him time to go to Florida, where his lickspittle henchman Ron DeSantis will refuse to hand him over to NY authorities.

I'm pleasantly surprised Biden pulled it out. The man spent his entire career as a political jobber and I thought he was going to flop on cue like one. But the black vote came out in force thanks to Trump's racism and the BLM protests over the summer. Look at the late come-from-behind wins in MI, WI, PA and most of all, GA (thank you Stacy Abrams!): The late surge in votes for Biden came from Milwaukee, Pontiac, Detroit, Philadelphia and Atlanta -all cities with a large percentage of black voters (apparently the Indigenous vote from Apaches, Navajos and others helped put Biden over in Arizona and Nevada). This is especially sweet, not only because the Republicans have been hell bent on Ku Kluxing the vote ever since Carter squeaked by Ford in 1976* but because now they're crying that their Jim Crow tactics backfired this time:

"WAAAAAAAAAH! All these uh, URBAN votes coming in late! Unfair! UNFAIR!"

Well if the GOP spent less time taking away polling places in minority precincts, the "uh, urban voters" wouldn't have to wait 12 hours or more just to vote, now would they? The fact that the drawn-out counting of minority votes causes MAGA morons to suffer just that much more is glorious. I had to listen to right-wing radio for a while on Friday and the plangent blubbering was as beautiful to my ears as my favorite music played by my favorite performers. In the case of The Dennis Prager Show, you have pure comedy gold to go with it!

Now the Dems need to win both senate run-offs in Georgia to give themselves control of the Senate, otherwise Bitch McConnell will block anything and everything, like he did under Obama.

* In the closing weeks of the 1976 race, Gerald Ford's agriculture secretary, Earl Butz, was on an airliner with right-wing crooner Pat Boone, Sonny Bono, and former Nixon lawyer John Dean. The following exchange ended up in Rolling Stone:

Pat [Boone] posed a question: “John and I were just discussing the appeal of the Republican party. It seems to me that the party of Abraham Lincoln could and should attract more black people. Why can’t that be done?” This was a fair question for the secretary, who is also a very capable politician.

“I’ll tell you why you can’t attract coloreds,” the secretary proclaimed as his mischievous smile returned. “Because colored only wants three things. You know what they want?” he asked Pat.

Pat shook his head no; so did I.

“I’ll tell you what coloreds want. It’s three things: first, a tight pussy; second, loose shoes; and third, a warm place to shit. That's all!”

Pat gulped twice.

I'll bet he did.

[Lost Soal]

I think he'll let the various agencies that want a piece of Trump go after him. On crimes including obstruction....

Fingers crossed, I read that in theory that Trump could resign just before his term ends so that Pence could pardon him.

That's only for federal crimes. State crimes a presidential pardon can't do jack shit. And in NY there are a LOT of people who are closing in on Trump for that. If Duetsche Bank seizes his resources (very possible) Trump's in even more trouble.

I'm curious about all the civil cases which are now due. Over the course of his 4 years of rally's the Trump campaign has stiffed dozens of cities in unpaid security bills, now that he doesn't have the protection of being POTUS I expect those cities to spend the next few years suing for the money owed. I'm just not sure who will ultimately owe the money, his campaign or him?

[Elheru Aran]

I'm curious about all the civil cases which are now due. Over the course of his 4 years of rally's the Trump campaign has stiffed dozens of cities in unpaid security bills, now that he doesn't have the protection of being POTUS I expect those cities to spend the next few years suing for the money owed. I'm just not sure who will ultimately owe the money, his campaign or him?

That comes down to legal shenanigans. Trump made a lot of noise about funding his own campaign. He also solicted a ridiculous amount of donations, many of which ended up going to pay off his legal bills. However, if his lawyers can prove that there is a tangible distinction between Trump the man and the Trump campaign, which IMO is possible, then the campaign organization itself will be on the hook, and probably pre-emptively declare bankruptcy.

[Elfdart]

I'm willing to bet that one reason Trump hasn't thrown in the towel yet is that there are still MAGA rubes out there willing to write checks to his campaign, which is deep in debt.

[Solauren]

I'm curious about all the civil cases which are now due. Over the course of his 4 years of rally's the Trump campaign has stiffed dozens of cities in unpaid security bills, now that he doesn't have the protection of being POTUS I expect those cities to spend the next few years suing for the money owed. I'm just not sure who will ultimately owe the money, his campaign or him?

That comes down to legal shenanigans. Trump made a lot of noise about funding his own campaign. He also solicted a ridiculous amount of donations, many of which ended up going to pay off his legal bills. However, if his lawyers can prove that there is a tangible distinction between Trump the man and the Trump campaign, which IMO is possible, then the campaign organization itself will be on the hook, and probably pre-emptively declare bankruptcy.

Unless the Trump campaign was registered as a seperate legal entity, I don't see that holding up.

[bilateralrope]

If it doesn't work, then Trump will just have to declare bankruptcy. Again.

[Napoleon the Clown]

Here's a deeply amusing thought: Trump's notorious for stiffing lawyers. If he's facing down extensive criminal charges he might have a hell of a time finding a criminal defense attorney willing to take him on as a client. He'd eat up massive time and resources defending so he might straight up be told no on the grounds he is too unlikely to pay. I could very well see him having to get a public defender all because defense attorneys can point to his record and say, "I have no confidence that I will be paid." That or they'll all demand very substantial payments upfront and Trump will refuse/be unable to pony up the cash.

Now, getting stuck defending Trump would suck ass for the public defender. Pay is, as I understand, not great. They'll be worked ragged to provide something resembling a proper defense. But the sheer humiliation of having to use a "Poor Person's Lawyer" would destroy Trump.

[Zaune]

2 - Finding guards willing to stay for that seems difficult. How much money does Trump actually have?

He's got the militiabros, who can at least force whichever government agency gets saddled with putting an end to this farce to waste time and ammunition, and potentially a small but not negligible percentage of the Army might actually turn out to support him if he put the call out on Twitter. Especially if he promises pardons for misconduct that the incoming administration is not inclined to quietly gloss over.

[Gandalf]

Here's something for which to look out; how many Republicans will now disavow Trump and act as though they never had or wanted anything to do with him?

My bet is on very few, and those who do are going to switch parties not stay Republicans. Win or lose Trump has created a GOP coalition that has a real possibility to be a long term majority party. He is not going to be abandoned by the party until and unless that possibility proves to be a mirage.

Trump built a coalition consisting of:

Social Conservatives - who are desperate to control the courts in order to protect the laws they want in areas where they are still a majority and prevent the courts or the national majority from outlawing their beliefs as racism has been outlawed.
American Nationalists - there are white supremists here, but also people who believe that America has generally been good and want American history to be presented as a steady improvement and people who believe American culture is superior and immigrants should embrace it.
The Middle/Working Class - by this I mean the middle 60% of the US population income wise. These voters support trade and immigration restrictions because both threaten to cut their wages and favor entitlements for themselves but tend to feel those who refuse to work are ripping the system off and that the wealthy are being protected from the consequences of their actions and they resent both groups.

This coalition proved quite loyal and resilient in this election and also capable of attracting non-white voters to the GOP. The exit polls I have seen say that Trump won about 35% of the non-white vote, which is the highest the GOP share of the minority vote has been since 1960. This despite Trump's racism. If Republicans can raise that to 40% there is a Republican majority here, Trump won't be abandoned while this possibility is in play.

Nicholas

Oh, the coalition and policies will remain. I'm pretty sure that what you outlined is also the coalition that got Reagan and Bush into power. It's Trump himself that a lot of people will try to pretend never existed. Stuff will likely be co-opted by an establishment figure like Christie or Cruz.

Admittedly, this is largely based on how few Republicans I see who'll own their votes for Bush in 2000/2004, despite being rabid followers at the time. Fucked if I know if it will be right, but guessing is fun.

[Solauren]

If it doesn't work, then Trump will just have to declare bankruptcy. Again.

He's never personally declared bankruptcy. His businesses, on the other hand, have.

And yes, there is a definite and distinct difference.

[B5B7]

2 - Finding guards willing to stay for that seems difficult. How much money does Trump actually have?

He's got the militiabros, who can at least force whichever government agency gets saddled with putting an end to this farce to waste time and ammunition, and potentially a small but not negligible percentage of the Army might actually turn out to support him if he put the call out on Twitter. Especially if he promises pardons for misconduct that the incoming administration is not inclined to quietly gloss over.

No one in the military would answer his call. Partly because of military discipline and largely because they don't want to disappoint their fellow soldiers. Militia types within the army would actually support the new government because they would love an opportunity to shoot at someone, even if it is their former militia buddies.