WTF Are the North Koreans Smoking Now?

[ChaserGrey]

Those people are idiots Simon. Fatboy kim is clearly the fucktard who started this mess by threatening to nuke people. Yes the US credibility is clearly not whay it once was, but I think for the most part the response so far has been a neccicary evil. Yes we have to engage in a bit of dick waving and that rubs folks the wrong way... but the alternative is letting the asshole in the room beat up his neighbors for lunch money. A fair degree of measured pushback is needed. Folks like Stark et al would piss and moan regardless so I've learned to just ignore them.

I think you're right as far as any one crisis goes. Kim beats his chest, the US and South Korea push back, and then everybody goes back to their corners. We've seen the script before, and I've given up predicting imminent war.

What worries me is that the situation in the Korean Peninsula right now resembles turn of the century Europe. The Great Powers had been in an extended, increasingly tense peace since the Franco-Prussian War, and the way to shake things up was by shifting alliance, brinksmanship, and crisis. There were quite a lot of them- Morocco in 1909 and again in 1911, the Balkans Crisis of 1908, the Navy Scare of 1909, the Balkan Wars of 1912-13. None of the Great Powers wanted a general war (at least IMO), but pushing to the brink of one became the accepted way of doing things.

Then another crisis began. One ally wrote another too big a blank check. Diplomatic messages got scrambled, and then long-prepared military plans kicked in. That was August 1914.

I wouldn't say I'm worried about Kim's "We will nuke you" speech, or the cutting of the hot line, or restarting the Yongbyon reactor complex, or for that matter the shelling of the South Korean island or the sinking of the Cheonan. I'm worried that as long as the North keeps forcing international crises to get what it wants, all it takes is one mistake on any side- and there are a lot more than two, however you want to count- for another Korean War to erupt. Regardless of whether or not anybody on any side wants it.

[ChaserGrey]

North Korea has done more than shell an island. I mean, they've committed assassinations, espionage, and terrorist attacks against the South for years. Shit, they kidnap people. I'm surprised how much the South is willing to put up with.

Conventional deterrence in action, or, "They've got HOW many artillery pieces pointed at Seoul?".

[EnterpriseSovereign]

North Korea has done more than shell an island. I mean, they've committed assassinations, espionage, and terrorist attacks against the South for years. Shit, they kidnap people. I'm surprised how much the South is willing to put up with.

They're saying they won't take any more shit from them, and the USA is saying they'll fully back the South if they go to war. As long as they don't go down the appeasement route, since that always calms things right down

Unless one or both sides start bringing extra tanks to the border it's hard to see either of them seriously waging actual war. Though the cycle of posturing, making threats before going back to their corners for a few more years can only go on for so long.

[Simon_Jester]

North Korea has done more than shell an island. I mean, they've committed assassinations, espionage, and terrorist attacks against the South for years. Shit, they kidnap people. I'm surprised how much the South is willing to put up with.

Conventional deterrence in action, or, "They've got HOW many artillery pieces pointed at Seoul?".

And this is why I'm firmly convinced that there is one simple way to make every general officer in North Korea foul their collective pants at once:

Evacuate Seoul. No hostage means no hostage crisis.

Note I said 'simple,' not 'easy.' Also, I don't recommend it as such- I just think it would have a very... interesting impact on both sides' strategic calculations if that were even possible, let alone carried out.

[ChaserGrey]

And this is why I'm firmly convinced that there is one simple way to make every general officer in North Korea foul their collective pants at once:

Evacuate Seoul. No hostage means no hostage crisis.

Note I said 'simple,' not 'easy.' Also, I don't recommend it as such- I just think it would have a very... interesting impact on both sides' strategic calculations if that were even possible, let alone carried out.

See, this is exactly what I'm talking about. Because if I'm the Awesome Leader (or whatever they're calling this one), and I see the ROK planning to evacuate Seoul, what I'm thinking is that they're getting ready to minimize losses after I play my card. Which means they're expecting me to play it. Either they think I'm planning to attack, or they're planning to attack. I know I'm not planning to attack. Hmmm. On the other hand, if they're planning to attack and I don't hit first, I can expect to take massive losses due to ROK and US air superiority. I have to assume they're planning to attack, and the only move is to hit first.

So as far as the world is concerned, crazy North Korea just started a war, even though from their point of view they were only reacting to obvious signs of a South Korean attack, which were really only supposed to be diplomatic signals. For bonus points, the ROK government didn't even *realize* they were sending signals, and were just trying to get some of their people out of the potential free-fire zone.

Edit: The point being, this is a perfect example of how a misread diplomatic signal, or something that wasn't intended to be a signal of any type, can start a war between two rational actors, neither of whom wants one. And I honestly think that's the situation here.

[Col. Crackpot]

I would be very cautious in blaming the outbreak of war on a government for evacuating civilians from a war zone. Especially when it is the other party involved who set the chain of events leading up to the conflict in motion.

[Ralin]

I'm, uh, pretty sure there are other big cities in South Korea besides Seoul.

[Zaune]

And this is why I'm firmly convinced that there is one simple way to make every general officer in North Korea foul their collective pants at once:

Evacuate Seoul. No hostage means no hostage crisis.

Note I said 'simple,' not 'easy.' Also, I don't recommend it as such- I just think it would have a very... interesting impact on both sides' strategic calculations if that were even possible, let alone carried out.

You do realise that "not easy" is a quite staggeringly large understatement, right? Seoul proper houses ten million people, which is about a fifth of the entire population of the country. (Source.)

[Simon_Jester]

See, this is exactly what I'm talking about. Because if I'm the Awesome Leader (or whatever they're calling this one), and I see the ROK planning to evacuate Seoul, what I'm thinking is that they're getting ready to minimize losses after I play my card...

I know, I know. I wouldn't actually recommend it- it's just entertaining to consider how horribly the North would freak out if they suddenly lost the ability to threaten Seoul with mass death.

It's equally entertaining, from that perspective, to imagine what the US would do if suddenly we lost the ability to nuke people and everyone else correspondingly lost the ability to nuke us. What do you do when your deterrent 'threatens' to dry up and disappear? How can making mass death less likely nonetheless manage to make war more likely?

It's very interesting. But then, you've read Kahn I presume, so you know this stuff back to front.

So as far as the world is concerned, crazy North Korea just started a war, even though from their point of view they were only reacting to obvious signs of a South Korean attack, which were really only supposed to be diplomatic signals. For bonus points, the ROK government didn't even *realize* they were sending signals, and were just trying to get some of their people out of the potential free-fire zone.

Edit: The point being, this is a perfect example of how a misread diplomatic signal, or something that wasn't intended to be a signal of any type, can start a war between two rational actors, neither of whom wants one. And I honestly think that's the situation here.

And yes, it's a good example of this IMO.

I would be very cautious in blaming the outbreak of war on a government for evacuating civilians from a war zone. Especially when it is the other party involved who set the chain of events leading up to the conflict in motion.

It's not a question of blame, it's a question of causal chain. Logical North Korean generals could easily start a war in reaction to the evacuation of Seoul, which is the point- the North doesn't have to be in any way 'crazy' for this to happen.

I'm, uh, pretty sure there are other big cities in South Korea besides Seoul.

Yes, but hitting those would hinge on the North's nukes and ballistic missiles, which are questionably reliable and also shoot-downable. Whereas Seoul is literally within artillery range of the border; all the North Koreans need to do to wreck Seoul is pull the lanyards on their own cannons.

And this is why I'm firmly convinced that there is one simple way to make every general officer in North Korea foul their collective pants at once:

Evacuate Seoul. No hostage means no hostage crisis.

Note I said 'simple,' not 'easy.' Also, I don't recommend it as such- I just think it would have a very... interesting impact on both sides' strategic calculations if that were even possible, let alone carried out.

You do realise that "not easy" is a quite staggeringly large understatement, right?

Yes.


Do not misunderstand me: evacuating Seoul at a time like this is not practical or wise for South Korea. BUT it's an interesting intellectual exercise, because it makes us think about exactly what role the North's "or else we'll shell Seoul" deterrent plays in relations between the North and the South.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

In that case, the first target of S. Korea is going to be to destroy as many pieces of artillery as they can in as short a time as possible, I'm sure they must have a battle plan for that.

[Stark]

The responses of the totally amerocetric people are the best, because they're who this is aimed at. If they're the ones being manipulated, their hurt pride is just part of the process.

What's alarming is how alarmist the media is, even here. It's that pressure for more 'satisfying' action that is the real risk.

[Ahriman238]

And this is why I'm firmly convinced that there is one simple way to make every general officer in North Korea foul their collective pants at once:

Evacuate Seoul. No hostage means no hostage crisis.

Note I said 'simple,' not 'easy.' Also, I don't recommend it as such- I just think it would have a very... interesting impact on both sides' strategic calculations if that were even possible, let alone carried out.

See, this is exactly what I'm talking about. Because if I'm the Awesome Leader (or whatever they're calling this one), and I see the ROK planning to evacuate Seoul, what I'm thinking is that they're getting ready to minimize losses after I play my card. Which means they're expecting me to play it. Either they think I'm planning to attack, or they're planning to attack. I know I'm not planning to attack. Hmmm. On the other hand, if they're planning to attack and I don't hit first, I can expect to take massive losses due to ROK and US air superiority. I have to assume they're planning to attack, and the only move is to hit first.

So as far as the world is concerned, crazy North Korea just started a war, even though from their point of view they were only reacting to obvious signs of a South Korean attack, which were really only supposed to be diplomatic signals. For bonus points, the ROK government didn't even *realize* they were sending signals, and were just trying to get some of their people out of the potential free-fire zone.

Edit: The point being, this is a perfect example of how a misread diplomatic signal, or something that wasn't intended to be a signal of any type, can start a war between two rational actors, neither of whom wants one. And I honestly think that's the situation here.

This. This is exactly how it worked with Russia and America during the Cold War. You have to wonder what the other side is thinking, and take their reaction into account, even for things that wouldn't raise flags between nations limited to conventional arms.

In theory, a rational actor won't push the button while any alternative exists, but if both sides know this (I trust nobody takes issue with me referring to the US and South Korea as one side? Against the North, they certainly are.) they will feel the need to state that they are willing and able to sling the nukes around, as a deterrent and so the other side doesn't dominate them with conventional forces (especially with the conventional force disparities between the USSR, US, and DPRK) or nibble them to death. And, like then, each side can't get rid of the niggling doubt that the opposition just might be stupid, crazy or depraved enough to push the button anyway. Or that there won't be a glitch, or some officer promoted above his competence with a twitchy rigger finger... do we even know who has launch authority in North Korea?

Whatever you might think, North Korea developing a nuclear arsenal is a major escalation in their ability to kill tons of people on very short notice, one that is going to forever color any dealings with them. Their waving around and threatening people is a minor further escalation, nothing they haven't done before, except now they actually have the power to back up (some of) their ridiculous claims. The US sanctions and military exercises as a pointed warning are another escalation, unfortunate, but extremely predictable. This 'amerocrat' sincerely hopes that from here on out, things follow the standard script of NK bluster, and nothing further happens, I really do. But I admit to being concerned, there's a new boss in North Korea with shiny new toys and a stated intention of being 'crazier' than his father. Does the standard script still apply? It seems more likely the longer we go without anything exploding.

[Simon_Jester]

In that case, the first target of S. Korea is going to be to destroy as many pieces of artillery as they can in as short a time as possible, I'm sure they must have a battle plan for that.

Any plausible plan South Korea might have still involves tons and tons of explosives landing on their own capital. So the deterrent still has an effect, a powerful one.

[Col. Crackpot]

The responses of the totally amerocetric people are the best, because they're who this is aimed at. If they're the ones being manipulated, their hurt pride is just part of the process.

What's alarming is how alarmist the media is, even here. It's that pressure for more 'satisfying' action that is the real risk.

Pot to kettle...
I almost think you would get some smug sense of satisfaction watching Seoul burn for no other reason than the opportunity it would present for you to point your finger at the evil american overlords. And that is creepy as fuck.

[Stark]

For me the shame is how the drama is pointed at the US, while the situation on the peninsula is viewed quite differently. The idea millions of Koreans might die because people like Crackpot want to feel tough is perverse, but it's the reality of the US's international position and their attitude.

Lol most appropriate ninja ever

[Col. Crackpot]

For me the shame is how the drama is pointed at the US, while the situation on the peninsula is viewed quite differently. The idea millions of Koreans might die because people like Crackpot want to feel tough is perverse, but it's the reality of the US's international position and their attitude.

Lol most appropriate ninja ever

I don't know what you've been reading but the narrative I see is "asshole and junta threatens to nuke neighbor containing second largest metropolis on planet and also their allies. Allies re enforce defenders".

[Stark]

Of course you do, darling. Gotta stop that lunch money getting stolen, right?

[Col. Crackpot]

Of course you do, darling. Gotta stop that lunch money getting stolen, right?

Thank you Dear, you have a nice day and don't worry your pretty little head one bit, m'kay?

[CaptHawkeye]

You definitely live up to your online handle.

[Broomstick]

True or false: North Korea has threatened South Korea in the past up to and including shelling South Korean territory and sinking South Korean ships.

True or false: North Korea has killed citizens of South Korea in the past.

True or false: North Korea has lots of conventional artillery aimed at Seoul.

If any of the above are true then in fact North Korea does pose a threat to South Korea. In fact, all three are true. So sorry, Stark, but it's not just a matter of Evul Murricans. It never was. It was North Korea that started the war back in the 1950's, not the US.

[Col. Crackpot]

Nonsense Broomstick. Clearly you just want to watch war porn on CNN like the rest of the 'muricans.

[The Xeelee]

America reaffirming it's support for South Korea www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22010726

[Stark]

Too bad I dont think it was America's fault tensions exist; simply that America can probably reduce them by responding in a different way. Is the goal to reduce tensions and have peace, or to feel good about having a war? That's why media hysteria scares me more than any dictator - the Koreans have their situation that they're dealing with, and on the stage of other countries' media their nations doom might be decided, as has happened before.

[ChaserGrey]

It's very interesting. But then, you've read Kahn I presume, so you know this stuff back to front.

Haven't, in fact- the list of books I "should" read is so terribly long. But I flatter myself that I know the concepts. In a way all Kahn really did was take the old dictum of "plan for capabilities, not intentions" and apply it WITH NUKES, but it has some non-obvious implications when applied to thermonuclear weaponry.

Do not misunderstand me: evacuating Seoul at a time like this is not practical or wise for South Korea. BUT it's an interesting intellectual exercise, because it makes us think about exactly what role the North's "or else we'll shell Seoul" deterrent plays in relations between the North and the South.

Next time, don't pick a hypothetical that'll get my heart going quite that fast. Just thinking of what would happen if the ROK announced they were evacuating Seoul made me want to start laying in iodine supplements. Jetstream, you know.

In that case, the first target of S. Korea is going to be to destroy as many pieces of artillery as they can in as short a time as possible, I'm sure they must have a battle plan for that.

I'm sure they do. And if they kill a gun every ten seconds, their capital still gets leveled. Do the math and figure out how fast you have to kill to get 8,000 guns in the roughly two hours before they level Seoul. You've got to do slightly better than one per second. Recourse to Star Destroyers not allowed.

In theory, a rational actor won't push the button while any alternative exists, but if both sides know this (I trust nobody takes issue with me referring to the US and South Korea as one side? Against the North, they certainly are.) they will feel the need to state that they are willing and able to sling the nukes around, as a deterrent and so the other side doesn't dominate them with conventional forces (especially with the conventional force disparities between the USSR, US, and DPRK) or nibble them to death. And, like then, each side can't get rid of the niggling doubt that the opposition just might be stupid, crazy or depraved enough to push the button anyway./quote]

The horrible trap of MAD is that you have to make sure that bit of doubt never goes away. Your opponent has to believe you're fully capable of pushing the button in the right circumstances, which makes it only natural to wonder if you'd do it under the wrong ones as well.

Or that there won't be a glitch, or some officer promoted above his competence with a twitchy rigger finger... do we even know who has launch authority in North Korea?

See the Vasily Arkhipov incident for details on how that can happen. And no, we don't know who would give the order to launch in North Korea. One of the most destabilizing single factors in the whole situation is how opaque the North Korean governmental and military structure is to outsiders.

[CaptHawkeye]

Too bad I dont think it was America's fault tensions exist; simply that America can probably reduce them by responding in a different way. Is the goal to reduce tensions and have peace, or to feel good about having a war? That's why media hysteria scares me more than any dictator - the Koreans have their situation that they're dealing with, and on the stage of other countries' media their nations doom might be decided, as has happened before.

Their is much obsession in the US about "good wars" being fought. Americans harp ceaselessly about the pivotal, defining heroism of the Revolution or World War 2. (Meanwhile they downplay America's far more numerous imperialistic or expansionist conflicts.) The result? Looking for new Hitlers has become a staple of American media and politics. The media looks for "troublemaker" states and then obsesses about every move they make while totally ignoring the circumstances surrounding third world nations.

To me the most ironic thing to me is that their are wars going on right now that America totally should intervene in or at least pay more attention to. But they won't because those wars aren't easy targets for station ratings or votes.