General North Korea thread

[EnterpriseSovereign]

The sooner China gets tired of all their shit and stops propping up the regime, the better.

[K. A. Pital]

China is tired of their shit but it doesn't mean China would allow the US or any US satellites to take that bit of territory.

[Purple]

What I do not understand is why the Chinese don't just help out a coup to put someone more controllable in power.

[K. A. Pital]

Wasn't there recently a purge of pro-Chinese corrupt officials? It is not as easy as it sounds. DPRK is extremely nationalistic and purging suspected traitors is easier than ever.

[Civil War Man]

Wasn't there recently a purge of pro-Chinese corrupt officials? It is not as easy as it sounds. DPRK is extremely nationalistic and purging suspected traitors is easier than ever.

Not to mention that even if, hypothetically, it were easy for a country like the US and China to sponsor a coup to depose Kim Jong Un, the past few decades in the Middle East should (not necessarily would, but definitely should) give them some pause. Invasions and foreign-backed coups more often than not just make things even worse, and I haven't seen any evidence to indicate that North Korea would be any different.

[Borgholio]

North Korea has nuclear weapons and a supreme leader who is crazy enough to actually use them. Any invasion of NK will certainly result in much more destruction and bloodshed than what we've seen in the middle east.

[Elheru Aran]

North Korea has nuclear weapons and a supreme leader who is crazy enough to actually use them. Any invasion of NK will certainly result in much more destruction and bloodshed than what we've seen in the middle east.

And for someone to be in a high enough position to engineer a coup, they have to be either very thoroughly indoctrinated into the Cult of Kim or smart/risk-averse enough to appear as such. By the time someone gets enough nads to start pulling the strings, either he gets thrown to the dogs or forcibly 'retired'. If some general actually pulled a coup off, odds are pretty good they'd be just as bad as the Kims.

Now I'm not discounting the possibility that the Chinese decided to play a long game and turned a few Korean officers around back in the 60s and 70s, mind you... but the odds are pretty slim.

[K. A. Pital]

Most of the high-profile generals do not buy the cult of Kim themselves, but as with any church (and it does imitate religious worship, their cult), the competition between politicians makes the cult itself a useful weapon to question your competitor's loyalty if the day comes.

[Grumman]

Not to mention that even if, hypothetically, it were easy for a country like the US and China to sponsor a coup to depose Kim Jong Un, the past few decades in the Middle East should (not necessarily would, but definitely should) give them some pause. Invasions and foreign-backed coups more often than not just make things even worse, and I haven't seen any evidence to indicate that North Korea would be any different.

It's hard to say how applicable the lessons of regime change and attempted regime change in the Middle East are to North Korea. Hopefully if it ever happened the general North Korean population would be ecstatic to no longer have the assholes in charge stealing food from their children's mouths and not fear their entire family being sent to a slave camp to die, and not have any deeper, more disturbing motivations of the sort that fuel ISIL.

[Broomstick]

One of the problems with North Korea is that their government is essentially a cult of a God-King. It really is a religion as much as anything else. Religious indoctrination is quite tenacious, even when the cult hurts the rank and file.

[Elheru Aran]

One of the problems with North Korea is that their government is essentially a cult of a God-King. It really is a religion as much as anything else. Religious indoctrination is quite tenacious, even when the cult hurts the rank and file.

To the point that it's possible that should a coup happen, the Kim supporters might simply tell the citizens to storm the opposition forces and swamp them by sheer force of numbers. And... they just might do it. Albeit they might have soldiers behind them with fixed bayonets, but they might do it.

If nothing else, if there are fewer citizens, there *might* be more food to go around...

[SpottedKitty]

What I do not understand is why the Chinese don't just help out a coup to put someone more controllable in power.

The way I'd always heard it explained, the Chinese want and/or need NK there as a good Communist buffer between them and any Western-influenced state. They do actually agree with 99%+ of the rest of the world that the Kim dynasty isn't worth a pair of fetid dingo's kidneys, but they don't dare say it out loud.

[Elheru Aran]

What I do not understand is why the Chinese don't just help out a coup to put someone more controllable in power.

The way I'd always heard it explained, the Chinese want and/or need NK there as a good Communist buffer between them and any Western-influenced state. They do actually agree with 99%+ of the rest of the world that the Kim dynasty isn't worth a pair of fetid dingo's kidneys, but they don't dare say it out loud.

The question is how much longer it being a buffer is worth all the bullshit they have to endure... They're already dealing with a bunch of shared borders anyway, one more won't kill them.

Frankly, when the Norks either collapse, implode or explode (it's one of those three, pretty much) I would not be surprised if they make a play at annexing the territory, but more likely they'll simply close the border, throw back any Norks that try to cross it, and let the South Koreans mop up, while making obligatory noises about 'capitalist takeover' and drawing up new contracts for 'war relief' or 'emergency aid'.

[Ralin]

One of the problems with North Korea is that their government is essentially a cult of a God-King. It really is a religion as much as anything else. Religious indoctrination is quite tenacious, even when the cult hurts the rank and file.

To the point that it's possible that should a coup happen, the Kim supporters might simply tell the citizens to storm the opposition forces and swamp them by sheer force of numbers. And... they just might do it. Albeit they might have soldiers behind them with fixed bayonets, but they might do it.

And yet there are still defectors, dissidents, black marketeers, etc. The Cult of Kim is definitely real, no argument there, but it's just as dangerous to over-estimate its power as it is to under-estimate. I doubt anyone really knows how much of the North Korean population buys into the indoctrination enough to stay fanatical to the end. Including the North Korean government itself.

The question is how much longer it being a buffer is worth all the bullshit they have to endure... They're already dealing with a bunch of shared borders anyway, one more won't kill them.

It really seems like the whole "Need a buffer state against the American imperialists!!!" thing is outdated. South Korea is a Chinese ally and trading partner, and North Korea is way more likely to cause cross-border problems than American military bases maybe possibly being set up slightly closer to China than they already are.

[K. A. Pital]

What I do not understand is why the Chinese don't just help out a coup to put someone more controllable in power.

The way I'd always heard it explained, the Chinese want and/or need NK there as a good Communist buffer between them and any Western-influenced state. They do actually agree with 99%+ of the rest of the world that the Kim dynasty isn't worth a pair of fetid dingo's kidneys, but they don't dare say it out loud.

The question is how much longer it being a buffer is worth all the bullshit they have to endure... They're already dealing with a bunch of shared borders anyway, one more won't kill them.

Frankly, when the Norks either collapse, implode or explode (it's one of those three, pretty much) I would not be surprised if they make a play at annexing the territory, but more likely they'll simply close the border, throw back any Norks that try to cross it, and let the South Koreans mop up, while making obligatory noises about 'capitalist takeover' and drawing up new contracts for 'war relief' or 'emergency aid'.

Considering how well the US took Soviet sympathies on Cuba (an island nation separated by water), I am not sure China would be keen for SK to extend all the way to their North-Eastern border. I just don't see it.

[mr friendly guy]

What I do not understand is why the Chinese don't just help out a coup to put someone more controllable in power.

The way I'd always heard it explained, the Chinese want and/or need NK there as a good Communist buffer between them and any Western-influenced state. They do actually agree with 99%+ of the rest of the world that the Kim dynasty isn't worth a pair of fetid dingo's kidneys, but they don't dare say it out loud.

This is one of the weird way big states behave. On the one hand a US military base in NK isn't going to be able to challenge China on its home soil, because there is no way in hell they can get enough troops there to make a difference. This has been debated before on this board. But if we turn this around, and say China and Canada suddenly become super best friends and Canada allows China to put a military base on its soil, the US would go apeshit. This is despite the fact China could not possibly get enough troops there to beat the US on its home soil. But witness how the Soviets reacted when the US put missiles in Turkey. By putting missiles in Cuba, which then prompted the Cuban missile crisis. That seems to be how big states behave.

It really seems like the whole "Need a buffer state against the American imperialists!!!" thing is outdated. South Korea is a Chinese ally and trading partner, and North Korea is way more likely to cause cross-border problems than American military bases maybe possibly being set up slightly closer to China than they already are.

Trading partner is definitely true, "ally" is stretching the definition I think. I think a few people have also pointed out how big states behave, as weird as it sounds to sort of explain why China might be apprehensive about US bases being closer.

[Grumman]

This is one of the weird way big states behave. On the one hand a US military base in NK isn't going to be able to challenge China on its home soil, because there is no way in hell they can get enough troops there to make a difference. This has been debated before on this board. But if we turn this around, and say China and Canada suddenly become super best friends and Canada allows China to put a military base on its soil, the US would go apeshit. This is despite the fact China could not possibly get enough troops there to beat the US on its home soil. But witness how the Soviets reacted when the US put missiles in Turkey. By putting missiles in Cuba, which then prompted the Cuban missile crisis. That seems to be how big states behave.

At the time of the Cuban missile crisis the only use of nuclear weapons in anger required only two warheads to end a war with a would-be global power. The Soviet Union had four missiles capable of hitting the United States from the USSR in 1961, and United States had just put one hundred medium-ranged nuclear missiles in Turkey. I don't think that really qualifies as "not enough troops to make a difference."

I don't think it's really relevant to the current situation - China is the United States' second largest trading partner, and the United States is China's largest, so war between those nations would be like bringing a hand grenade to a fistfight - MAD even if your enemy doesn't do anything.

[K. A. Pital]

Trade and what? There was plenty of trade between the participants of World War I. Didn't help em one bit to prevent war. China will not accept US meddling in North Korea. If that means putting up with Kim Jong Style, they will put up with it, only to keep the US out.

[mr friendly guy]

At the time of the Cuban missile crisis the only use of nuclear weapons in anger required only two warheads to end a war with a would-be global power. The Soviet Union had four missiles capable of hitting the United States from the USSR in 1961, and United States had just put one hundred medium-ranged nuclear missiles in Turkey. I don't think that really qualifies as "not enough troops to make a difference."

I don't think it's really relevant to the current situation - China is the United States' second largest trading partner, and the United States is China's largest, so war between those nations would be like bringing a hand grenade to a fistfight - MAD even if your enemy doesn't do anything.

Nitpick, the EU is China's largest partner, and has been for several years.

Nitpick 2 as of last year, China is the US largest trading partner, not second largest. It surpassed Canada to be the US largest trading partner due to low oil prices.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... e27134249/

We will see whether the trend continues. But back to the original point.

Your point seems to be that in this case, the military base nearby is enough to make a difference to the balance of power prior to the base, which I guess is fair enough. The US base in Turkey gave it quite a punch and the USSR base in Cuba equalised it somewhat. However I would argue we have numerous other examples to showcase that big states will behave like this even when bases on nearby soil is not enough to tip the balance of power significantly. For example Russia's response to NATO expansion.

I can give examples of the US also doing the same thing, such as helping overthrow governments in South America it didn't like because they might be getting too close to the Soviets, and even if the Soviets put a military base in say Chile, its not going allow them to beat the US in its backyard.

I would argue big states behave in this manner regardless. I can speculate why they do, because a small advantage here, and another one there might add up, so they will seek to deny a potential rival even this small advantage via diplomatic or other means, but that's just my off the cuff speculation for why they would want to do it, not on the fact they do behave in this manner.

Now I agree the chances of the US and China going to war is slight, but that doesn't mean each state won't seek an advantage or advantages for themselves "just in case." And letting a potential rival putting a military base close to your border is a disadvantage which could add up.

[Purple]

Apparently the DPRK test launched another missile. CNN is on it right now.

[SpottedKitty]

One apparent failure, one "not sure what happened to it", according to the BBC. I really wish they'd come up with a better (or at least, safer for the rest of us) way to remind everyone they're still there. I don't think anyone — even China — doesn't think it's only a matter of time until Something Regrettable™ happens, completely by accident.

[Purple]

I don't think its them showing off. At this point I genuinely think its just them trying desperately to get a system that works and works well. You have to see things from their perspective. The great powers, especially those in the west have shown that they have zero qualms about raping any country that can't stand up to them. Just looking at post WW2 stuff it's a record of the same thing repeating over and over again. Small country without atomic weapons gets raped because the big guys think they can get more out of it that way. The only real safety from that is the notion that you could if they tried to do it to you at least kill millions of their people and a prayer that this might give them pause.

And with the Soviet Union gone and relationship with China deteriorating its now more than ever that the DPRK needs that security.

[The Romulan Republic]

North Korea has said that US sanctions are a declaration of war and that they're on a war footing.

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/north-korea ... ss-n618656

PYONGYANG, North Korea — North Korea's top diplomat for U.S. affairs told The Associated Press Thursday that Washington "crossed the red line" and effectively declared war by putting leader Kim Jong Un on its list of sanctioned individuals.

Han Song Ryol, director-general of the U.S. affairs department at the North's Foreign Ministry, said a vicious showdown could erupt if the U.S. and South Korea hold annual war games as planned next month.

He added that recent U.S. actions have put the situation on the Korean Peninsula on a war footing.

The United States and South Korea regularly conduct joint military exercises south of the Demilitarized Zone, and Pyongyang typically responds to them with tough talk and threats of retaliation.

PlayNorth Korea: We simulated nuclear strikes on US ports, airfields Facebook Twitter Google PlusEmbed
North Korea: We simulated nuclear strikes on US ports, airfields 0:22
Han said North Korea believes the nature of the maneuvers has become openly aggressive because they reportedly now include training designed to prepare troops for the invasion of the North's capital and "decapitation strikes" aimed at killing its top leadership.

Han says designating Kim himself for sanctions was the final straw.

"The Obama administration went so far to have the impudence to challenge the supreme dignity of the DPRK in order to get rid of its unfavorable position during the political and military showdown with the DPRK," Han said, using the acronym for North Korea's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Related: N. Korea Tests Pre-Emptive Missile Strikes on U.S. Targets

"The United States has crossed the red line in our showdown," he said. "We regard this thrice-cursed crime as a declaration of war."

Although North Korea had already been heavily sanctioned internationally for its nuclear weapons and long-range missile development programs, Washington's announcement on July 6 was the first time Kim has been personally sanctioned.

Image: Kim Jong Un
Kim Jong Un watches a parade in Pyongyang in May. Wong Maye-E / AP
Less than a week later, Pyongyang cut off its final official means of communications with Washington — known as the New York channel. Han said Pyongyang has made it clear that everything between the two must now be dealt with under "war law."

Kim and 10 others were put on the list of sanctioned individuals in connection with alleged human rights abuses, documented by the United Nations Human Rights Commission, which include a network of political prisons and harsh treatment of any kind of political dissent in the authoritarian state. State Department officials said the sanctions were intended in part to highlight those responsible for the abuses and to pressure lower-ranking officials to think twice before carrying them out.

Pyongyang denies abuse claims and says the U.N. report was based on fabrications gleaned from disgruntled defectors. Pointing to such things as police shootings of black Americans and poverty in even the richest democracies, it says the West has no moral high ground from which to criticize the North's domestic political situation. It also says U.S. allies with questionable human-rights records receive less criticism.

Very concerning, though I'd be more worried if they didn't say something stupid and provocative every few months.

[Raw Shark]

There is no actual treaty with North Korea. They've been at official war with our loyal and productive ally to their South for the last six or seven decades. I know a guy who did his Marine training over there, and has shot some of them maybe fatally just being out on maneuvers. Any talk of unfair provocations or acts of war on their end is a huge pile of bullshit. They want to develop the bomb, they're playing hardball and deserve whatever happens.

[Broomstick]

Yeah, the biggest problem with that being if they drop the bomb, or just start conventional shooting, quite a few of the people who will die probably don't deserve it. But that's yet another reason why war is so objectionable.

And when have they not been on a "war footing" for the past half century? [/sarcasm]