COVID-19 ongoing thread part 2

[Jub]

Granted, CERB isn't meant to be permanent. But this is another reminder that Basic Income is within our society's means- we simply don't implement it because poor people are deemed undeserving of basic security and dignity. It should also be possible, from this data, to extrapolate what it would cost to make it truly universal, and give every person in Canada a basic income.

Have you looked at Canada's federal budget and figured out a way to fund an additional $47-$98 billion in spending without completely exploding the budget? Keep in mind that total federal government revenue is $338 billion and we were already running an $18 billion deficit before covid-19.

Raises taxes for large corporations (while fixing existing loopholes), raise taxes on millionaires, raises taxes on all property beyond one's personal residence. That ought to be a start. We can also nationalize mines, oil wells, forestry companies and take back all of the profit in revenue rather than getting pennies on the dollar in the form of taxes. We could charge the US full rate for power and water we send south too.

We can stop playing the game where the entire world pretends that profits must always go up and look to be a largely self-sufficient economy that trades within our means to obtain resources we don't have locally.

[aerius]

Have you looked at Canada's federal budget and figured out a way to fund an additional $47-$98 billion in spending without completely exploding the budget? Keep in mind that total federal government revenue is $338 billion and we were already running an $18 billion deficit before covid-19.

Raises taxes for large corporations (while fixing existing loopholes), raise taxes on millionaires, raises taxes on all property beyond one's personal residence. That ought to be a start. We can also nationalize mines, oil wells, forestry companies and take back all of the profit in revenue rather than getting pennies on the dollar in the form of taxes. We could charge the US full rate for power and water we send south too.

We can stop playing the game where the entire world pretends that profits must always go up and look to be a largely self-sufficient economy that trades within our means to obtain resources we don't have locally.

I'd suggest looking up those numbers to show that it's actually viable. I know the answer to the question, but I ain't doing your homework for you.

[Jub]

I'd suggest looking up those numbers to show that it's actually viable. I know the answer to the question, but I ain't doing your homework for you.

If it isn't viable then the entire system isn't viable and we need a proper revolution. The idea that so many of us work make work jobs because any other means of sustaining ourselves have been removed from us needs to die.

[ray245]

My region has passed a bylaw mandating non-medical facial coverings for anyone entering a store or other building that's open to the public. Meanwhile, our parks and beaches look just like the ones in Florida during spring break. People are gathering by the thousands on our lakefront beaches and crammed nuts to butts in large groups with no protection of any sort, and I can wear a fishnet face mask and be in compliance with the new bylaw. This is pretty much public health theatre, which is about as effective as airport security theatre.

Except we do have examples of mandatory face mask reducing spread in Germany. Not perfect, but you do not need perfection to reduce the severity of the spread. If it is public health theatre that will remind people to be more careful, it's still useful at this stage.

[Nicholas]

I don't know enough about science to judge if this is true or not but if it is true COVID-19 becoming 10 times more contagious then it was when China suppressed it is bad news.

https://www.biospace.com/article/mutate ... ontagious/

Mutated COVID-19 Viral Strain in U.S. and Europe 10 Times More Contagious than Original Strain

Published: Jun 30, 2020 By Mark Terry

Researchers have been analyzing and tracking the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, since it first appeared in China in January. Researchers at The Scripps Research Institute have found that the strains spreading so quickly in Europe and the U.S. have a mutated S “spike” protein that makes it about 10 times more infectious than the strain that originally was identified in Asia. The research was published online on bioRxiv and has yet to be peer-reviewed.

The mutation does not appear to make the virus any more deadly than it already is, but it does appear to make it significantly more contagious. The original strain in China is dubbed D614, while the one found in the UK, Italy and North America by May is dubbed G614.

The S “spike” protein is found on the surface of the virus and is used to gain entry to cells, something like a key in a lock. But the original strain, D614, often broke off when it was attempting to bind to ACE2 receptors in people’s airways. The mutated version, G614, is less likely to break off, allowing it to more easily make its way into cells.

ACE2 receptors are molecules on the surface of cells found throughout the body, but in particularly high concentrations in the lungs, although they are found in various organs, including the pancreas and testes. ACE2 receptors vary in concentrations and are also linked to high blood pressure.

The researchers believe this mutation is approximately 10 times more infectious than the original viral strain.

Hyeryun Cho, lead research of the study by the Scripps Institute, told the Washington Post that the mutation appeared to “compensate” for the fragility of the spike protein in the past.

Cho and her colleagues studied the differences between the spike proteins. They write, “These results show SG614 is more stable than SD614, consistent with epidemiological data suggesting that viruses with SG614 transmit more efficiently.”

Cho added, “The epidemiological study and our data together really explain why the [G variant’s] spread in Europe and the US was really fast. … This is not just accidental.”

Although it’s certainly not good news, the positive aspect of the findings, at least so far, are that the genetic mutations do not seem to make the virus more—or less—deadly. The spike protein does not appear to have anything to do with the virus’ ability to reproduce (replicate) once it infects a cell. But it does make it easier for the cell to be infected.

As a research study about HIV in 2014 by the UK’s National Health Service noted, “The optimal evolutionary strategy for a virus is to be infectious (so it creates more copies of itself) but non-lethal (so its host population doesn’t die out).”

The study by Cho and colleagues noted, “An interesting question is why viruses carrying the more stable SG614 appear to be more transmissible without resulting in a major observable difference in disease severity. It is possible that higher levels of functional S protein observed with SG614 increase the chance of host-to-host transmission, but that other factors limit the rate and efficiency of intra-host replication.”

The Scripps research, along with research conducted by investigators at the University of Sheffield and Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, indicate that the more fragile D614 spike protein that was originally discovered in Wuhan, China, was likely the virus’s original state in humans, and made up the vast majority of all COVID-19 infections in China and Asia. The mutated version, G614, appears to have spread shortly afterward in Europe and North America, then became the dominant form of the virus.

“A clear and consistent pattern was observed in almost every place where adequate sampling was available,” the researchers said. “In most countries and states where COVID-19 epidemic was initiated and where sequences were sampled prior to March 1, the D614 form was the dominant local form early in the epidemic. Wherever G614 entered a population, a rapid rise in its frequency followed, and in many cases G614 became the dominant local form in a matter off only a few weeks.”

They believe that the mutation not only makes it easier for the virus to infect people, but more likely to spread, partially because the patients with the new mutation appeared to have a higher viral load when infected with the tougher strain, meaning higher amounts of virus circulating in their body.

[The Romulan Republic]

Yeah, I'd believe I'd heard previously that the strain that's dominant in the US is a mutation originating in Europe that's considerably more contagious than the Chinese variant.

[aerius]

Except we do have examples of mandatory face mask reducing spread in Germany. Not perfect, but you do not need perfection to reduce the severity of the spread. If it is public health theatre that will remind people to be more careful, it's still useful at this stage.

I would like to see these studies.

[ray245]

Except we do have examples of mandatory face mask reducing spread in Germany. Not perfect, but you do not need perfection to reduce the severity of the spread. If it is public health theatre that will remind people to be more careful, it's still useful at this stage.

I would like to see these studies.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... y-suggests

https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/133 ... d-approach

[mr friendly guy]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 06981.html

Teenager who died of Covid-19 attended church gathering before being given hydroxychloroquine
Florida 17-year-old taken to church party where masks and social distancing were not enforced

An immunocompromised teenager in Florida died from Covid-19 after attending a church party and being given hydroxychloroquine.

Carsyn Leigh Davis, 17, died in June after contracting coronavirus. The Fort Myers teen’s death shocked the community and prompted thousands of dollars worth of donations towards GoFundMe campaigns to honour her memory.

The Washington Post reported that Ms Davis had battled health issues her entire life, including cancer and a rare autoimmune disorder.



Ms Davis’s death re-entered the spotlight after the Miami-Dade County Medical Examiner’s report was made public and revealed details of the teen’s last weeks. Rebekah Jones, a data scientist in Florida, shared Ms Davis’s story in a Twitter thread that subsequently went viral.

Prior to her death, Ms Davis apparently attended a church party that was attended by approximately 100 students. Mask usage and social distancing was not enforced at the party, and Ms Davis reportedly attended without wearing a face covering.

After she contracted the virus, Ms Davis’s parents gave her hydroxychloroquine, an antimalarial drug pushed by president Donald Trump as an effective coronavirus treatment but has been labelled dangerous by the US Food and Drug Administration for causing heart rhythm problems that could lead to death.

Ms Davis’s mother wrote a Facebook post describing her daughter’s hospitalisation and complained that the doctors would not give her the drug.

“I am quarantined in her room with her and assisting in her care. The doctors are refusing to give her Hydroxychloroquine, citing “new studies” that it does not work and can be harmful. Using it is against their policy,” she wrote. “This is very upsetting to me, as many of you know how I feel about that.”

An advocacy site dedicated to Covid-19 victims in Florida accused Ms Davis’s mother of taking her to a “Covid Party” to “intentionally expose her immuno-comrpromised daughter to this virus.”

Ms Davis’s mother – who works as a nurse – previously wrote Facebook posts decrying mandatory mask usage and encouraged readers to send letters to elected officials opposing the mandates.

Ms Davis was an active member of her community, regularly attending church functions and spending her time volunteering and participating in her school’s varsity bowling team.

The party Ms Davis attended was advertised as a “Release Party” and a Facebook post from the church said the party would include “free food, a DJ and music and the start of our new sermon series.”

The church’s Facebook page has since been taken down.

The medical examiner’s report said that Ms Davis reported feeling ill after she began taking the drugs her parents gave her, and at one point her mother observed that she “looked grey” while she was sleeping. Her mother gave her oxygen that her grandfather used to fight COPD.

It is currently unclear whether Ms Davis had a prescription for hydroxychloroquine.

After the oxygen incident, Ms Davis was taken to a nearby medical centre and it was confirmed that she had contracted the coronavirus. The girl’s parents decided against having her intubated and opted instead for her to receive plasma therapy, according to the medical examiner’s report.

Unfortunately none of the hospital’s attempts to save Ms Davis were effective and the girl died two days after her 17th birthday.

Ms Jones – who maintains the Florida Covid-19 victim’s website and was fired by the Florida Department of Health for refusing to change how the state publicized its public data – said Ms Davis’s story was especially saddening to her.

“Every death on this website is heartbreaking. Every minute lost in someone’s life is a tragedy,” Ms Jones wrote on her site. “But this one will stick with me long after this virus has torn through our communities.”

The GoFundMe for Ms Davis has raised $13,990 as of Tuesday.

Her mother posted a statement on the GoFundMe page.

“We are incredibly saddened by her passing at this young age, but are comforted that she is pain free,” she wrote. “Heaven gained an angel.”

Somewhat aptly put this, as an example of the power of propaganda. The sad thing is after this, they are milking the girls death and saying how she was a "patriot."

The mistakes
1. Taking her to a COVID party.

2. Not wearing a mask at said party.

3. Refusing to seek medical help initially.

4. Fucking giving her hydroxychloroquine. The whole spiel about doctors refusing to give it because they cited studies, but I know better, reads like a parody making fun of right wingers, but damn, its real.

5. Refusing a ventilator. Jesus she was young, so a better candidate for ventilation. They refused for her intubated which is the step just before putting her on a ventilator.

[The Romulan Republic]

That girl was murdered. Just like thousands of other Americans are being murdered every day. She was murdered by her family, by her church, and by her president, along with tens of thousands of others like her.

[The Romulan Republic]

Is there anything covid doesn't fucking cause?

https://theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/ ... d-symptoms

Doctors may be missing signs of serious and potentially fatal brain disorders triggered by coronavirus, as they emerge in mildly affected or recovering patients, scientists have warned.

Neurologists are on Wednesday publishing details of more than 40 UK Covid-19 patients whose complications ranged from brain inflammation and delirium to nerve damage and stroke. In some cases, the neurological problem was the patient’s first and main symptom.

The cases, published in the journal Brain, revealed a rise in a life-threatening condition called acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (Adem), as the first wave of infections swept through Britain. At UCL’s Institute of Neurology, Adem cases rose from one a month before the pandemic to two or three per week in April and May. One woman, who was 59, died of the complication.

A dozen patients had inflammation of the central nervous system, 10 had brain disease with delirium or psychosis, eight had strokes and a further eight had peripheral nerve problems, mostly diagnosed as Guillain-Barré syndrome, an immune reaction that attacks the nerves and causes paralysis. It is fatal in 5% of cases.

“We’re seeing things in the way Covid-19 affects the brain that we haven’t seen before with other viruses,” said Michael Zandi, a senior author on the study and a consultant at the institute and University College London Hospitals NHS foundation trust.

“What we’ve seen with some of these Adem patients, and in other patients, is you can have severe neurology, you can be quite sick, but actually have trivial lung disease,” he added.

“Biologically, Adem has some similarities with multiple sclerosis, but it is more severe and usually happens as a one-off. Some patients are left with long-term disability, others can make a good recovery.”

The cases add to concerns over the long-term health effects of Covid-19, which have left some patients breathless and fatigued long after they have cleared the virus, and others with numbness, weakness and memory problems.

One coronavirus patient described in the paper, a 55-year-old woman with no history of psychiatric illness, began to behave oddly the day after she was discharged from hospital.

She repeatedly put her coat on and took it off again and began to hallucinate, reporting that she saw monkeys and lions in her house. She was readmitted to hospital and gradually improved on antipsychotic medication.

Another woman, aged 47, was admitted to hospital with a headache and numbness in her right hand a week after a cough and fever came on. She later became drowsy and unresponsive and required an emergency operation to remove part of her skull to relieve pressure on her swollen brain.

“We want clinicians around the world to be alert to these complications of coronavirus,” Zandi said. He urged physicians, GPs and healthcare workers with patients with cognitive symptoms, memory problems, fatigue, numbness, or weakness, to discuss the case with neurologists.

“The message is not to put that all down to the recovery, and the psychological aspects of recovery,” he said. “The brain does appear to be involved in this illness.”

The full range of brain disorders caused by Covid-19 may not have been picked up yet, because many patients in hospitals are too sick to examine in brain scanners or with other procedures. “What we really need now is better research to look at what’s really going on in the brain,” Zandi said.

One concern is that the virus could leave a minority of the population with subtle brain damage that only becomes apparent in years to come. This may have happened in the wake of the 1918 flu pandemic, when up to a million people appeared to develop brain disease.

“It’s a concern if some hidden epidemic could occur after Covid where you’re going to see delayed effects on the brain, because there could be subtle effects on the brain and slowly things happen over the coming years, but it’s far too early for us to judge now,” Zandi said.

“We hope, obviously, that that’s not going to happen, but when you’ve got such a big pandemic affecting such a vast proportion of the population it’s something we need to be alert to.”

David Strain, a senior clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter Medical School, said that only a small number of patients appeared to experience serious neurological complications and that more work was needed to understand their prevalence.

“This is very important as we start to prepare post-Covid-19 rehabilitation programs,” he said. “We’ve already seen that some people with Covid-19 may need a long rehabilitation period, both physical rehabilitation such as exercise, and brain rehabilitation. We need to understand more about the impact of this infection on the brain.”

Seriously, its bizare how many symptoms and effects this one disease seems to have.

[Ralin]

Certainly makes you understand how an ignorant person could think it was designed as a biological weapon or some shit.

[mr friendly guy]

Seriously, its bizare how many symptoms and effects this one disease seems to have.

I raise you HIV, tuberculosis and syphilis aka the "great mimicker." No seriously, google great mimicker and syphilis. These diseases while may more commonly affect some organs, have also been described to affect others and give a lot of differing symptoms.

[Zaune]

Anyone else starting to wish we'd just had a zombie apocalypse instead? And I say that as someone who's spent enough time overthinking the worldbuilding of post-apocalyptic fiction to be aware of the downsides.

[aerius]

Except we do have examples of mandatory face mask reducing spread in Germany. Not perfect, but you do not need perfection to reduce the severity of the spread. If it is public health theatre that will remind people to be more careful, it's still useful at this stage.

I would like to see these studies.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... y-suggests

https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/133 ... d-approach

Interesting. Thanks. I don't really know much about the synthetic controls and other modelling they used so I'll have to run this one by some of my friends in the field. The main issue I see is timing, we know the generation time of the virus and how long it takes for symptoms to show up, and the timelines don't really align unless we assume that mask usage went up significantly as soon as the bylaw was announced, which was well before it took effect. The researchers try to account for this in their models, but without a hard count on usage between announcement & enforcement it's pretty much GIGO.

Anyone else starting to wish we'd just had a zombie apocalypse instead? And I say that as someone who's spent enough time overthinking the worldbuilding of post-apocalyptic fiction to be aware of the downsides.

There's a series of John Ringo books about a flu-like disease pandemic that has the interesting side-effect of eating the brain. And yes, it causes a zombie apocalypse.

[ray245]

Interesting. Thanks. I don't really know much about the synthetic controls and other modelling they used so I'll have to run this one by some of my friends in the field. The main issue I see is timing, we know the generation time of the virus and how long it takes for symptoms to show up, and the timelines don't really align unless we assume that mask usage went up significantly as soon as the bylaw was announced, which was well before it took effect. The researchers try to account for this in their models, but without a hard count on usage between announcement & enforcement it's pretty much GIGO.

I don't think we will ever get a definitive study that prove whether mask is effective or not.

There is another study in the UK about the effectiveness of masks.

https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy ... BCBFC2BB24

[madd0ct0r]

Anyone else starting to wish we'd just had a zombie apocalypse instead? And I say that as someone who's spent enough time overthinking the worldbuilding of post-apocalyptic fiction to be aware of the downsides.

There's a series of John Ringo books about a flu-like disease pandemic that has the interesting side-effect of eating the brain. And yes, it causes a zombie apocalypse.

Zombies are a metaphor for unrestricted greed in the post-thatcher world. There's no such thing as society.

Corvid is a metaphor for paranoia and fear in the increasingly personally atomised, cybernetic present. People raging online and dying of loneliness.

[FaxModem1]

CNBC

32% of U.S. households missed their July housing payments
Published Wed, Jul 8 202012:11 PM EDTUpdated Thu, Jul 9 202011:18 AM EDT
Alicia Adamczyk
@ALICIAADAMCZYK

Twenty/20
As the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic continues, almost one-third of U.S. households, 32%, have not made their full housing payments for July yet, according to a survey by Apartment List, an online rental platform.

About 19% of Americans made no housing payment at all during the first week of the month, and 13% paid only a portion of their rent or mortgage.

That’s the fourth month in a row that a “historically high” number of households were unable to pay their housing bill on time and in full, up from 30% in June and 31% in May. Renters, low-income and younger households were most likely to miss their payments, Apartment List found.

In April, May and June, the majority of missed housing payments were made by the end of month, Apartment List reports. Almost 90% of households had paid some or all of their rent or mortgage payment by the end of June. But with late fees tacked on, those households may be more likely to miss their next housing bill, perpetuating a vicious cycle.

“Delayed payments in one month are a strong predictor for missed payments in the next,” Apartment List says. While 83% of households who paid their May housing in full and on-time also did so in June, only 30% of households who were late in May did so in June.

Worries about evictions mount
States started to reopen their economies last month, but spikes in coronavirus cases led many to re-close sectors or pause reopening plans altogether.

“The economic fallout from the pandemic does not appear on track for the quick V-shaped recovery that many had originally hoped for,” reports Apartment List. Plus, the continued coronavirus recession has more Americans worried about evictions and foreclosures, Apartment List found.

Renters are especially vulnerable. About 36% of renters, who are more likely to work in industries devastated by the coronavirus, missed their July housing bill, compared to 30% of homeowners.

The federal eviction moratorium, which covers around one-fourth of renters in the U.S., put in place at the beginning of the pandemic has been extended to the end of August. But many people are still worried about an imminent wave of evictions across the country, as tenant protections vary greatly depending on the state and even city. Many — though not all — states and cities have instituted their own eviction bans; some have already expired, leaving tenants vulnerable at a time when coronavirus cases are increasing in many spots in the U.S.

Many households have already spent their one-time stimulus check, and the extra $600 per week in unemployment insurance — used by many to cover essentials like housing — runs out at the end of July. That means even more households could potentially miss their rent or mortgage payments in coming months.

Housing advocates are calling for a uniform, nationwide eviction moratorium that covers all renters, as well as other federal aid in the form of emergency rental relief. The House or Representatives has passed several measures, including the Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions, or HEROES, Act and the Emergency Housing Protections and Relief Act of 2020, to address the housing crisis. Neither bill is expected to pass the Republican-controlled Senate.

So, what does this mean? Can the US government do something to help with this? Will it? How will this affect the spread of the virus?

I've heard it said that this is the normal rate for people unable to afford rent. Is that true?

[The Romulan Republic]

Honestly, I'd say whether they legally can do something is almost a moot point- if they don't act, and a quarter or a third of the country is put on the street, there will be a civil war.

And, yes, that many people put out on the street, probably living in very crowded shelters and shanty towns, would massively increase the spread of covid.

[PainRack]

I would like to see these studies.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... y-suggests

https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/133 ... d-approach

Interesting. Thanks. I don't really know much about the synthetic controls and other modelling they used so I'll have to run this one by some of my friends in the field. The main issue I see is timing, we know the generation time of the virus and how long it takes for symptoms to show up, and the timelines don't really align unless we assume that mask usage went up significantly as soon as the bylaw was announced, which was well before it took effect. The researchers try to account for this in their models, but without a hard count on usage between announcement & enforcement it's pretty much GIGO.

Anyone else starting to wish we'd just had a zombie apocalypse instead? And I say that as someone who's spent enough time overthinking the worldbuilding of post-apocalyptic fiction to be aware of the downsides.

There's a series of John Ringo books about a flu-like disease pandemic that has the interesting side-effect of eating the brain. And yes, it causes a zombie apocalypse.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7177146/
HK had high mask wearing early on and this study attempted to show that clusters of infection from activities where people who wore masks were less infection that those that didn't.(essentially, workplace mask wearing vs eating, exercise and leisure activities such as singing where masks were not on)

There a problem in where they attempted to isolate masks as the variable by comparing mask useage amongst countries, which would help prove that its the masks that reducing the infection rather than the activities that increasing it.

Comparing with Singapore and Day 100, Singapore had a higher infection rate compared to HK, but for the first two months, infection rates were actually similar and could be explained away by superspreader events such as the S11 dorm case. The S11 dorm spread for example happened in April and as case exploded to hundred plus just before their April 8th cut off date.

Similarly, HK this time was lucky in that no superspreader occurred, although its also possible to argue that this was because of mask hygiene emplaced early. So...... who knows?

Combined with lab and other mechanics of infection, the data is suggestive that mask wearing will help reduce the spread as this disease is more infectious than the earlier models which used influenza as a baseline. WHO saying not to wear mask early on is based off those models and well........ God hates us.

[Ziggy Stardust]

Interesting. Thanks. I don't really know much about the synthetic controls and other modelling they used so I'll have to run this one by some of my friends in the field. The main issue I see is timing, we know the generation time of the virus and how long it takes for symptoms to show up, and the timelines don't really align unless we assume that mask usage went up significantly as soon as the bylaw was announced, which was well before it took effect. The researchers try to account for this in their models, but without a hard count on usage between announcement & enforcement it's pretty much GIGO.

Basically, when it comes right down to it, it is hotly contested in the field right now whether mass face mask is an efficacious public health strategy.

This paper gives a pretty good overview of the current state of the clinical evidence as of April. There are a number of reasons why we can't make a confident causal claim that it lays out rather well, with plenty of references. The paper also goes on to conclude that it's a good idea to recommend masks anyway; even if we don't have a gold standard randomized trial demonstrating efficacy, we have mountains of indirect evidence (e.g. tests on masks under laboratory conditions) that indicate it has a potential effect, and there are obviously no adverse effects of wearing one. So basically, "We can't prove it but why the hell not?"

There are other studies (the ones listed earlier, as well as this one) that purport to demonstrate a causal relationship between increased face mask coverage and decreased community disease burden, but as you observe these are all based on specific mathematical models, which come laden with all sorts of hidden assumptions and caveats that can be difficult (or in many cases actually logically impossible) to verify that may introduce bias into the results. That said, there is nothing WRONG with this type of modeling or using these results to inform public health strategy, these would fall under what I would call "indirect evidence" that suggests the potential for efficacy. To put it another way, we don't have a "gold standard" demonstration of efficacy, but we have a fuck-ton of bronze standard demonstrations, and at a certain point that all adds up to something.

But the reality is we really don't know at the moment. To be honest, the state of covid research in general is a MESS. The entire global medical research apparatus was woefully unprepared for this pandemic and are really scrambling to catch up.

[aerius]

Raise your hand if you're surprised.

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2456

Greater independence from commercial interests is more important than ever

Although the covid-19 pandemic has provoked the best of human compassion, the hallmarks of unhealthy commercial influence have also emerged. This week, The BMJ published the initial list of signatories to our call for action to reduce commercial influence in how healthcare evidence is produced and used (www.bmj.com/commercial-influence-call-to-action). Signatories include professors, patient advocates, clinicians, and researchers who want to see product evaluation, medical education, and clinical practice much freer from commercial interests.1

Previous BMJ investigations have highlighted systemic weaknesses in the regulation of drugs, devices, and tests,2 and the experience with covid-19 may prove another powerful example of this problem. Statistician John Deeks, who is studying the evidence underpinning covid-19 tests, has expressed serious concerns that current regulatory mechanisms for tests are vulnerable to commercial influence.34 For example, the UK government used “commercial confidentiality” to justify concealing the names of nine covid-19 antibody tests that had been found to be insufficiently accurate.3 Manufacturers of antibody tests are not allowed to make false claims, but tests do not need to work well to be approved in Europe; nor is independent evaluation required.4 Regulation in the US is usually more stringent but has been relaxed during the pandemic to facilitate approval of tests for covid-19.4

There are valid arguments for “regulatory agility” during emergencies such as covid-19,5 but speed should not undermine basic standards for trustworthy evidence.6 As a 2017 report on Ebola from the US National Academy of Sciences noted, “despite [the] sense of urgency, research during an epidemic is still subject to the same core scientific and ethical requirements that govern all research on human subjects.”7 Clear evidence of the risk of bias in commercially funded research 1 should drive efforts to develop a new, but equally agile, system of independent evaluation of all tests and treatments.

Off balance

A serious imbalance in covid-19 research strongly favours the study of drug treatments over non-drug interventions, with many studies too small or too weak to produce reliable results.8 Equally concerning is the release of partial or preliminary findings before peer review—often through commercial press releases—that is distorting public perceptions, ongoing evaluations efforts, and political responses to the pandemic.

Remdesivir is a key example. The antiviral drug, made by US company Gilead, was unapproved at the start of the pandemic, but in early April the New England Journal of Medicine published a small descriptive study of a compassionate use scheme for patients with covid-19.9 Gilead funded the study, a third of the authors were Gilead employees, and Gilead’s press release reported “clinical improvement in 68% of patients in this limited dataset.”10 Despite being a non-randomised, uncontrolled, company funded study of just 53 patients, media headlines described “hopeful” signs and reported “two thirds” of patients showing improvement.11

Two weeks later, the Lancet published a randomised placebo controlled trial of remdesivir from China, finding no statistically significant clinical benefit in the primary outcome of time to clinical improvement.12 Twelve per cent of participants taking remdesivir stopped treatment early because of adverse events, compared with 5% taking placebo. The trial was stopped before meeting recruitment targets, so results were inconclusive but did not rule out the possibility of benefit, according to an accompanying commentary.13

Spin

On the same day as the lacklustre Lancet findings were published, two other events helped sustain global hype about remdesivir. First, an upbeat media release by Gilead promoted preliminary results from another company funded study, still weeks away from submission for peer review.14 Second, Anthony Fauci, a member of President Trump’s coronavirus task force, unexpectedly announced preliminary findings from a publicly funded trial being run in the US. Adding to Trump’s previous promotion of remdesivir as a potential “game-changer,” Fauci told the world the trial’s results suggested the drug could become the “standard of care” for covid-19, before any peer reviewed data were available for scrutiny.15

The publicly funded trial was published in NEJM almost a month later.16 That report of preliminary results showed a difference of four fewer days in time to recovery among those taking remdesivir, compared with placebo, but no significant reduction in deaths. The paper revealed that the primary outcome had been changed during the trial, and, that following a data safety monitoring board recommendation and Fauci’s public announcement in April, treating physicians were allowed to switch trial participants from placebo to remdesivir, bringing an early end to masking for some participants.

The published report also disclosed that Gilead supplied the drug for the trial, one of the trial investigators was a Gilead employee, and six other authors declared financial ties to Gilead. Finally, an additional note disclosed that employees of Gilead “participated in discussion about protocol development and in weekly protocol team calls,”16 a level of engagement suggesting this drug trial could not be regarded as independent from the manufacturer.

Call for independence

Whatever the evidence ultimately shows about remdesivir’s benefits and harms, commercial influence once again seems to be driving overly positive perceptions of a still unproved drug. Similar concerns over covid-19 tests and their reliability confirm the need for urgent reform of regulatory approval for diagnostic tests.4 Both underscore the critical importance of rigorous and independent evaluation of tests and treatments.

The BMJ thanks all those who have signed the call for more independence from commercial interests in medical research, education, and practice, and encourages others to consider adding their signatures. (https://www.bmj.com/commercial-influence).1 During this fast moving and lethal pandemic, independent and trustworthy evidence, interventions, and guidance are more important than ever.

[Zaune]

If you are insistent that schools should reopen here ready for the new academic year, I’d love to hear your insight on how my wife can successfully socially distance her twenty 6 year-olds during mandated active shooter drills.

Just in case you didn’t realise that we are completely broken as a society.

My brother, via Facebook.

[LadyTevar]

So... WV is FINALLY Number ONE....

...In new cases over the last week. We beat Texas. Wanna bet it'll get worse when the two-weeks after July 4th kicks in?

[bilateralrope]

COVID-19 may not have originated in China - Oxford University expert

07/07/2020
Lana Andelane

The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, widely believed to have originated in China, may have been lying dormant across the world before emerging under favourable environmental conditions, claims a medical expert.

Dr Tom Jefferson, a senior associate tutor at Oxford University's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM), argues mounting evidence suggests the virus was present elsewhere in the world before it surfaced in China.

Traces of the virus have been discovered in sewage samples from Brazil, Italy and Spain, pre-dating its emergence in China. Last week, Spanish virologists announced they had founded traces of the disease in waste water samples collected in March 2019 - nine months before the virus was detected in China's Hubei Province.

Italian scientists also claim to have discovered traces of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage samples from both Milan and Turin, collected in mid-December. This again predates the first cluster of cases recorded in the Hubei Province.

Dr Jefferson suggests evidence such as this indicates the virus originated as a global organism that developed under suitable environmental conditions.

In an exclusive interview with The Telegraph, Dr Jefferson has called for an investigation into how and why COVID-19 appears to thrive in environments such as meatpacking plants and food factories.

"There is a high concentration where sewage is 4°C, which is the ideal temperature for it to be stabled and presumably activated. And meatpacking plants are often at 4°C," he told The Telegraph.

"These outbreaks need to be investigated properly."

The expert believes the inquiry could unveil possible new pathways of transmission , such as shared bathroom facilities or sewerage systems.

"There is quite a lot of evidence of huge amounts of the virus in sewage all over the place, and an increasing amount of evidence there is faecal transmission," he told The Telegraph.

Dr Jefferson also cited "strange" similarities between COVID-19 and the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918, noting that more than 20 percent of Western Samoa's population died of the disease despite having no international interaction. His theory is disputed, however, by the common explanation that the flu reached Western Samoa through New Zealand cargo ships, such as the SS Talune.

"The explanation could only be that these agents don't come or go anywhere. They are always here and something ignites them, maybe human density or environmental conditions, and this is what we should look for."

Sure, where the virus originated doesn't matter much, except when it comes to naming the virus. Covid19 and SARS-CoV-2 are names that don't care about the origins of the virus. But the people who want to use names that blame China are going to have to work harder to justify their racist naming now that there is doubt over where it originated.