5/6/08 Primaries Results thread

ArmorPierce · Post by **ArmorPierce** » 2008-05-06 10:40pm

Haha, this bitch seems to have just accepted the nomination for president...

Patrick Degan · Post by **Patrick Degan** » 2008-05-06 10:52pm

It was always foregone what her reaction would be. Should Obama win Indiana by even a small margin after also winning North Carolina, the Hillary line will be: "Sen. Obama did not win the huge victory he needed to prove he's electable, and North Carolina doesn't count". If the totals stay as they are, the line will be: "Sen. Obama still can't win the Big States™ to prove he's electable, and North Carolina doesn't count". Either way, it's always going to be a formulation by which she justifies her ongoing march to August.

Post by **Broomstick** » 2008-05-06 10:54pm

Adrian Laguna wrote:It seems that if Obama could still win Indiana, if Gary and Indianapolis favor him heavily, and he does alright in the remaining precincts. I doubt he would, but if Clinton wins, it likely will be by a narrow margin.

Gary and Indianapolis ARE the two areas most likely to heavily favor Obama. Most specifically, Lake, Porter, and Marion counties.

The Duchess of Zeon · Post by **The Duchess of Zeon** » 2008-05-06 11:02pm

Broomstick wrote:
Adrian Laguna wrote:It seems that if Obama could still win Indiana, if Gary and Indianapolis favor him heavily, and he does alright in the remaining precincts. I doubt he would, but if Clinton wins, it likely will be by a narrow margin.
Gary and Indianapolis ARE the two areas most likely to heavily favor Obama. Most specifically, Lake, Porter, and Marion counties.

Do you think Lake County might still tip things for him?

Gil Hamilton · Post by **Gil Hamilton** » 2008-05-06 11:03pm

Right now CNN is saying that it is too close to call, because while it's 52/48 Hillary right now, Lake County hasn't reported AT ALL yet and that is expected to go heavily to Obama. So he could well win.

Post by **Broomstick** » 2008-05-06 11:07pm

I've got the news on. Lake County elections board is saying the turnout was record-breaking. There are 11,000 absentee ballots to account for and 520 precincts that do not yet have official totals. Gary, which is in Lake County, is something like 70-80% African-American (although not all of them will vote for Obama - there was a highly vocal contingent of black women members of Hoosiers for Hillary outside the polling area when I went to vote this morning along with everyone else). On top of that, Lake County is one of the most, if not the most, liberal county in Indiana, and quite a few of us white folks there also voted for Obama.

Yes - it is possible Lake County could be the deciding county in Indiana, and it's expected to go to Obama. It's largely a question of how great his Lake County victory will be for him. In which case - well, damn, maybe my vote really DID count this time...

And if I recall, Lake County usually doesn't say jack until all the results are tabulated - it's just that, since we're usually ignored in elections by the rest of the country the media just haven't noticed that until now. Results may not be in until after midnight Central time.

Hawkwings · Post by **Hawkwings** » 2008-05-06 11:54pm

It's 51/49 now, getting closer...

Adrian Laguna · Post by **Adrian Laguna** » 2008-05-06 11:59pm

Broomstick wrote:And if I recall, Lake County usually doesn't say jack until all the results are tabulated - it's just that, since we're usually ignored in elections by the rest of the country the media just haven't noticed that until now.

Apparently CNN didn't get the memo, because they are ever so subtly implying there's funny business going on in Lake County.

CmdrWilkens · Post by **CmdrWilkens** » 2008-05-07 12:03am

The margin of votes went from about 40k down to 20k when the first batch of Lake County reported in. Right now looking at CNN's map there are 4 counties with results outstanding. Union (which looks Clinton), Monroe (1/3 to go and favoring Obama), Laporte (tiny edge to Clinton with 1/8th to go), and of course Lake (72% to go with a huge Obama edge).

If the existing trends continue (in terms of votes versus precints reporting and percentage of total) then Obama would win Indiana by somewhere in the neighborhood of 10-12k votes. Either way I'm betting on a tie for delegates and at most a 1 or 2 delegate win for either side.

Adrian Laguna · Post by **Adrian Laguna** » 2008-05-07 12:11am

Note that the part of Lake County that reported is Gary, so it is unlikely that the 75-25 split in favour of Obama will hold. That's okay though, if I'm doing the numbers right, he only needs a bit over 60-40 to win.

Davis 51 · Post by **Davis 51** » 2008-05-07 12:39am

More of lake county reporting. Now there's only a 16,000 vote difference. Marginally less than 2%

ArmorPierce · Post by **ArmorPierce** » 2008-05-07 12:47am

haha 51 to 49? This can really break clinton's back if she loses especially considering that she had already accepted winning Indiana. I'm crossing my fingers. CNN are being a bit of douche bags about it and riling things up for no reason.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2008-05-07 12:52am

I'll laugh my ass off if Obama wins and forces her to withdraw her victory speech.

LMSx · Post by **LMSx** » 2008-05-07 12:59am

There's conflicting word on whether Clinton has canceled just her morning appearances or all public appearances. If it's the latter, then I think the campaign's just gone into Romney Death-Watch.

The Duchess of Zeon · Post by **The Duchess of Zeon** » 2008-05-07 01:03am

The trend is holding strong in Lake County, and Clinton's vote margin is being eaten away. Even if she wins the state technically, the delegate count is probably going to be split.

The Duchess of Zeon · Post by **The Duchess of Zeon** » 2008-05-07 01:09am

And here's some regular updates for you on the counting in Indiana, including the mayor of Gary saying that his city will deliver the state for Obama.

Dominus Atheos · Post by **Dominus Atheos** » 2008-05-07 01:10am

MSNBC calls it for Hillary.

Hawkwings · Post by **Hawkwings** » 2008-05-07 01:12am

Well, with 99% in, it's Hillary with about 20,000 more votes. Looks like the delegates will be split 32/29

Davis 51 · Post by **Davis 51** » 2008-05-07 01:14am

Aaand with that, even if Hillary counts Michigan and Florida, Obama still has a lead in Pledged Delegates and Popular Vote.

Wake me up November, please.

Metatwaddle · Post by **Metatwaddle** » 2008-05-07 01:14am

MSNBC has called the race for Clinton with a 22,000, 51-49 lead and 99% of precincts reporting.

It was still a good day for the Obama campaign. I hope we get plenty of superdelegates tomorrow.

Glocksman · Post by **Glocksman** » 2008-05-07 01:15am

My county (Vanderburgh) went for Hillary by a 52%-48% margin.
Looking at it as dispassionately as I can, even that close a loss is somewhat of a victory for Obama, as Evansville and Vanderburgh county are less than 12% black, and we have an 'open' primary.

In other words, Obama managed to attract a large percentage of white voters despite Hillary's pandering.
And that's good news.

Davis 51 · Post by **Davis 51** » 2008-05-07 01:19am

They're saying he effectively erased the lead she gained in Pennsylvania, and even got upped by 1 delegate.

I really hope the superdelegates start flocking.

The Duchess of Zeon · Post by **The Duchess of Zeon** » 2008-05-07 01:24am

It might be bigger than that--I've heard numbers as high as 64% for North Carolina as Obama's victory percentage there.

Jaepheth · Post by **Jaepheth** » 2008-05-07 01:27am

is there any way to do a rough estimate of how many republicans voted for hilary?

Maybe take last election's primary numbers and see if there's a measurable difference to this year's primary?

Since the republican candidate was already chosen by Indiana's primary last time too, the two primaries should have roughly the same turn-out, no?

Fire Fly · Post by **Fire Fly** » 2008-05-07 01:29am

Apparently, Clinton has canceled all of her morning talk show appearances; I hope's and indicator that she's done.