Massive Earthquake in China

[The Kernel]

For such a densely populated region, and one with a number of heavy industries, this death toll is thankfully low. It could easily have been so much worse (and still may be, with many people still apparently trapped). I'd be especially worried about the chemical and pharmaceutical plants in the region, and possible contamination of the water supply and the air from noxious substances.

I wouldn't be so quick to accept the death toll as stated. This is CHINA we are talking about here, they fucking are jamming communications are carefully regulating the press as usual.

Thank goodness my Dad is a super worrier and gave my sister an Iridium phone before she left so she could actually contact us, otherwise it might have been weeks until we could hear from her.

[CaptainChewbacca]

Its been revised. The quake is now ranked at 7.9. Not far from the Tsunami Quake.

I thought it was over a 9?

I believe the Tsunami was an 8.2. Can't recall, though.

[Adrian Laguna]

The Gods have been pissed with Asia lately.

[Sriad]

Its been revised. The quake is now ranked at 7.9. Not far from the Tsunami Quake.

I thought it was over a 9?

I believe the Tsunami was an 8.2. Can't recall, though.

There have only been 4 recorded earthquakes 9.0 or up:

1. Chile 1960 05 22 9.5 -38.24 -73.05 Kanamori, 1977

2. Prince William Sound, Alaska 1964 03 28 9.2 61.02 -147.65 Kanamori, 1977

3. Off the West Coast of Northern Sumatra 2004 12 26 9.1 3.30 95.78 Park et al., 2005

4. Kamchatka 1952 11 04 9.0 52.76 160.06 Kanamori, 1977
from http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/wor ... _world.php

The Indian Ocean Tsunami-quake is number 3. Measurements range from 9.0 to 9.3 depending on your seismic scale of preference.

[Sriad]

HORRIBLE formatting there, sorry.

1. Chile 1960 05-22 Mag: 9.5 Epicenter L&L:-38.24 -73.05

2. Prince William Sound, Alaska 1964 03-28 Mag: 9.2 Epicenter L&L:61.02 -147.65

3. Off the West Coast of Northern Sumatra 2004 12-26 Mag:9.1 Epicenter L&L:3.30 95.78

4. Kamchatka 1952 11-04 Mag:9.0 Epicenter L&L:52.76 160.06

[The Duchess of Zeon]

For such a densely populated region, and one with a number of heavy industries, this death toll is thankfully low. It could easily have been so much worse (and still may be, with many people still apparently trapped). I'd be especially worried about the chemical and pharmaceutical plants in the region, and possible contamination of the water supply and the air from noxious substances.

I wouldn't be so quick to accept the death toll as stated. This is CHINA we are talking about here, they fucking are jamming communications are carefully regulating the press as usual.

Thank goodness my Dad is a super worrier and gave my sister an Iridium phone before she left so she could actually contact us, otherwise it might have been weeks until we could hear from her.

The cellphones are overloaded by the disaster, of course. Duh.

And, no, the death toll likely isn't that low, but it isn't because the Chinese are hiding it. It's because this happened about a day ago, and guess what, it takes longer than a day to count tens of thousands of dead bodies spread through an entire province. The simple mechanics of undigging corpses from all the rubble--while concentrating resources on trying to find survivors!--and then counting them, and then reporting tallies, demands by Occam's Razor itself as a more obvious explanation than your wild flights of fancy about the Chinese lying.

[Broomstick]

I agree, the death toll isn't being hidden, it's still being counted.

In the US a single building collapse in an otherwise intact city can still take days to account for all the dead (how long did it take for a reasonably accurate count for the 9/11 collpases...?) In an area with multiple collapses and destroyed/malfunctioning infrastructure you aren't going to get firm numbers for a couple weeks regardless of political factors.

[The Kernel]

The cellphones are overloaded by the disaster, of course. Duh.

The article up the page says they were jammed, so I guess it's fairly ambiguous.

And, no, the death toll likely isn't that low, but it isn't because the Chinese are hiding it. It's because this happened about a day ago, and guess what, it takes longer than a day to count tens of thousands of dead bodies spread through an entire province. The simple mechanics of undigging corpses from all the rubble--while concentrating resources on trying to find survivors!--and then counting them, and then reporting tallies, demands by Occam's Razor itself as a more obvious explanation than your wild flights of fancy about the Chinese lying.

China has a long and glorious history of not reporting on true fatality numbers from natural disasters. This fact is not in dispute.

[Broomstick]

Granted that China has a history of glossing over casualty numbers, no one would have anything like an accurate count from a disaster this large after just a few days.

[CaptainChewbacca]

Its not just that the circuits are busy, there's been a real loss of communications infrastructure. Take out just four cell towers and you can loose a huge communications area.

[AniThyng]

The cellphones are overloaded by the disaster, of course. Duh.

The article up the page says they were jammed, so I guess it's fairly ambiguous.

It was obvious to me that they meant "jammed" as in congested and overloaded, not "jammed" as in "Electronic Warfare". But I suppose if one is inclined to view the Chinese government in a negative light, the latter is easier to leap to.

[montypython]

The cellphones are overloaded by the disaster, of course. Duh.

The article up the page says they were jammed, so I guess it's fairly ambiguous.

It was obvious to me that they meant "jammed" as in congested and overloaded, not "jammed" as in "Electronic Warfare". But I suppose if one is inclined to view the Chinese government in a negative light, the latter is easier to leap to.

If people have an axe to grind they will spin things as they wish to see them regardless. Anyhow, some more news on the situation:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor ... d=90394707

Rescue workers in central China were trying to clear rubble from schools and flattened homes Tuesday as they searched for survivors from the deadliest earthquake to hit the country in three decades. Nearly 12,000 people were killed and more than 18,000 are missing, according to state media reports.

In Mianyang city in Sichuan province, near the epicenter of Monday's magnitude 7.9 quake, rescue workers said thousands of people could still be trapped under debris.

The official Xinhua News Agency said 3,629 people have been confirmed dead in Mianyang. It is not clear whether that number is included in the government's official death toll, which now stands at 11,921. The casualty figures are expected to rise and remained uncertain due to the remote areas affected by the quake and difficulty in finding buried victims.

The agency said rescue workers had just reached the epicenter in Wenchuan county, an area cut off by the disaster. The number of casualties there was unknown.

NPR correspondents in nearby Chengdu said there were few signs on the highways of a mass rescue mobilization. But a convoy of buses filled with soldiers lined the road out of the city, headed toward the most devastated areas.

In Sichuan's capital, Chengdu, people camped in tattered tent cities, sleeping and cooking under tarps on the roadside.

In Beichuan county — one of the worst-hit areas — numerous houses were destroyed and a steady stream of refugees left the villages hoping to find shelter and medical care.

At least 4,800 people remained buried in Mianzhu, 60 miles from the epicenter, Xinhua said, citing local authorities.

Heavy rain continued to impede rescue efforts near the epicenter Tuesday; a group of paratroopers called off a mission to the area, Xinhua said.

China said it would welcome international aid but would not yet allow foreign relief workers into the affected area.

The earthquake caused a wide swath of damage across central China, leveling buildings and cutting off roads and communications. It sent people rushing out of their offices on the other side of the country in Beijing, and was felt as far away as Vietnam.

Chinese officials are also worried about the fate of a world-famous panda preserve. The Wolong National Nature Reserve, which is in a remote, mountainous area near the epicenter, was cut off by the quake's effects.

From NPR reports and The Associated Press.

[The Kernel]

It was obvious to me that they meant "jammed" as in congested and overloaded, not "jammed" as in "Electronic Warfare". But I suppose if one is inclined to view the Chinese government in a negative light, the latter is easier to leap to.

I've been to China, it's pretty easy to see the Chinese government in a negative light.

I was there during the Tibet riots and I'm watching the Chinese news right next to reading the headlines on Reuters and getting COMPLETELY different information. The Chinese news channels were outright LYING about the situation on the ground.

[montypython]

I was there during the Tibet riots and I'm watching the Chinese news right next to reading the headlines on Reuters and getting COMPLETELY different information. The Chinese news channels were outright LYING about the situation on the ground.

I wouldn't necessarily say that, as I've seen the reports by the western media on those same things and double checked with Chinese media sources, there was quite a bit of selective editing in Western reports that left out information on the situation that caused quite a ruckus on the web.

[ray245]

I was there during the Tibet riots and I'm watching the Chinese news right next to reading the headlines on Reuters and getting COMPLETELY different information. The Chinese news channels were outright LYING about the situation on the ground.

I wouldn't necessarily say that, as I've seen the reports by the western media on those same things and double checked with Chinese media sources, there was quite a bit of selective editing in Western reports that left out information on the situation that caused quite a ruckus on the web.

Yup, you can't fully trust a news media just because it's a more liberal...

There's still the issue of bias in reporting news, and most of the info that western media got is from 3rd party source...most of them anyway.


That's one reason I've gone a little bit insane with creating topics in regards to media...

[K. A. Pital]

I've been to China, it's pretty easy to see the Chinese government in a negative light.

So was I. There are many negative things about the Chinese government, but saying Chinese government is at fault for anything connected to this disaster is ridiculous. Or that it's concealing death tolls before they can even be accurately counted - besides, China has applied for international rescue aid, so what fucking reason it has to hide the scale of a disaster which they are not at fault with? Seriously: NONE.

[Admiral Valdemar]

They're still trying to go about rescuing those thousand children buried alive, but it's looking dire. Asia really has had one fucked up month so far, but at least China, unlike Burma, is more on the ball for such disasters.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

The Chinese government has really gone all-out about this. Despite the Tibetan terrorists and their actions recently, they've deployed all of their special forces, simply because they could get there faster, to help with disaster relief work. Fat chance the US government would ever redeploy troops from, say, Iraq, to help in a disaster in the United States. The Chinese have tens of thousands of military personnel now on hand and more coming by rail and road, and they marched into the most remote areas on foot over rugged, broken terrain in weather where they can't land Mi-8s.

It once again occurs to me that China would be a fundamentally better place to live in than the United States--but I've held that opinion for a good two years now.

[Chris OFarrell]

The Chinese government has really gone all-out about this. Despite the Tibetan terrorists and their actions recently, they've deployed all of their special forces, simply because they could get there faster, to help with disaster relief work. Fat chance the US government would ever redeploy troops from, say, Iraq, to help in a disaster in the United States.

Perhaps because Delta Commandos, Navy SEALS, Army Rangers and so on are not the people you want in disaster relief when you DO have people and equipment far better suited to that kind of work? The US has a gigantic logistical muscle (if they can actually get their asses in gear) to get the specialist people -whom they have- into a disaster zone, fast. China doesn't, those special forces units probably HAVE the mobility assets in their TO&E, or attached to them, which let them and only them, get in fast, everyone else having to come in slower. Which is why they are first deployed.

And its a hell of a red herring to talk about bringing special forces back from Iraq, as opposed to transferring them across the US.

[Admiral Valdemar]

Still, it's fair to say that the party has reacted far more efficiently the FEMA did with Katrina. That deserves points.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Perhaps because Delta Commandos, Navy SEALS, Army Rangers and so on are not the people you want in disaster relief when you DO have people and equipment far better suited to that kind of work? The US has a gigantic logistical muscle (if they can actually get their asses in gear) to get the specialist people -whom they have- into a disaster zone, fast. China doesn't, those special forces units probably HAVE the mobility assets in their TO&E, or attached to them, which let them and only them, get in fast, everyone else having to come in slower. Which is why they are first deployed.

And its a hell of a red herring to talk about bringing special forces back from Iraq, as opposed to transferring them across the US.

Except that all of our troops are, in fact, not really available at the moment. And it's just a couple extra in-flight refuelings, anyhow.

You are correct, the special forces were sent because they had the mobility. They are just extra hands--I am not delusional in thinking they could be better at disaster relief than specialists. They're not as good as engineering units, as a matter of fact. But the Chinese also understood that the most important thing is getting there with the most that they can, as fast as they can, and just having as many strong men as possible to deal with the aftermath, as much supplies as they can fling at the problem. Specialist units can arrive as available.

And it's valid to criticize the US government for not doing that, because our response was absolutely sluggardly to Katrina.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

The latest reports, viz:

China quake toll close to 15,000
Zhang Xiaoyan pulled alive from rubble in Dujiangyan 14 May
Pregnant mother Zhang Xiaoyan was pulled alive from the rubble

Nearly 15,000 people died in the devastating earthquake that hit China's Sichuan province, the official Xinhua news agency has reported.

More than 25,000 are still trapped in the rubble two days after the 7.9 quake struck, causing landslides and razing homes, schools and whole villages.

China's Prime Minister Wen Jiabao was flying to the epicentre to see relief work, having met survivors elsewhere.

Troops have been mobilised and aid has been dropped to cut-off areas.

Sichuan's Vice-Governor Li Chengyun said incomplete figures suggested 14,463 people were dead, another 14,051 were missing, 25,788 were buried in the debris and 64,746 had been injured, Xinhua reports.

Officials reached the town of Yingxiu, in Wenchuan County, to find the devastation was worse than expected - out of the town's population of 10,000, only 2,300 have been found alive.

The head of a police unit sent into the disaster zone said the losses had been severe.

"Some towns basically have no houses left," Wang Yi, told Sichuan Online news site. "They have all been razed to the ground."

Poor weather has hampered aid efforts, and rescuers have been forced to trek to areas cut off by the quake damage and search through the rubble with their bare hands.

In Juyuan township, near Dujiangyan, more than 1,000 people are thought to be trapped in a collapsed school building. More than 50 bodies have been pulled out - but only one girl is reported to have been rescued alive so far.

Weeping parents wait for news as the victims are laid out in the playground.

The BBC's Dan Griffiths, in Juyuan, says a whole generation of the town's children may be lost.

At another school, in Qingchuan County, at least 178 children were confirmed dead, killed as they were having a midday sleep.

Among the rescue successes was 34-year-old Zhang Xiaoyan, who is eight months pregnant. She was pulled alive from an apartment that partially collapsed in Dujiangyan.

"It's a miracle brought about by us all working together," Sun Guoli, Chengdu's fire chief told the Associated Press. "It's a miracle of life, using one's life to save a life."

Officials for the Ministry of Transport and Ministry of Railways told reporters that road conditions were impeding relief work across the province.

"We may have 10 machines but given the road condition only one excavator can used at one time, and we can only push forward one metre by one metre," one said.

The earthquake on Monday was the worst to strike China since more than 240,000 people were killed in Tangshan in 1976.

So it seems like the final death toll could be around 50,000 people, since most of those trapped and missing are certainly dead; maybe as high as
55,000.

[Broomstick]

And its a hell of a red herring to talk about bringing special forces back from Iraq, as opposed to transferring them across the US.

Except that all of our troops are, in fact, not really available at the moment. And it's just a couple extra in-flight refuelings, anyhow.

You are correct, the special forces were sent because they had the mobility. They are just extra hands--I am not delusional in thinking they could be better at disaster relief than specialists. They're not as good as engineering units, as a matter of fact. But the Chinese also understood that the most important thing is getting there with the most that they can, as fast as they can, and just having as many strong men as possible to deal with the aftermath, as much supplies as they can fling at the problem. Specialist units can arrive as available.

The US civilian population also has resources the Chinese do not - after 9/11 a lot of people just jumped into their private vehicles, loaded them up with supplies, and drove to NYC on their own. After a couple of California earthquakes private pilots have flown small airplanes and helicopters (which can get into smaller spaces than larger airplanes and use open fields and roads instead of requiring prepared runways) into disaster zones with supplies and personnel There are few other countries where the civilian population is able call up such resources on short notice in significant numbers. While such civilian aid is not going to move entire city blocks of collapsed buildings or provide huge amounts of supplies, the mere fact someone from outside can get into an area, distribute at least some supplies, provide news, and possibly help evacuate even a few injured can have an enormously positive effect on people who would otherwise feel completely forgotten, isolated, cut-off, and without hope. It can be the difference between people sitting around like stunned bunnies and people actually taking some action in a crisis.

Therefore, in the US the civilians can to some extent provide help to themselves and there is less reason to pull troops back from other places. In China, though, civilian aviation is nearly non-existent and ownership of motor vehicles far from universal. I don't know if China has the equivalent of the US interstate highway system, which greatly facilitates moving people and things around the country. Lack of such would also impede moving help into affected areas.

One difference between Katrina and a few other disasters was that the Feds specifically barred such civilian help from entering the area. It's not just a matter of New Orleans - there were plenty of Gulf communities that could have benefited from the couple hundred pounds of stuff you can safely cram into a small Cessna and pilots willing to fly into the areas - but the Feds said no, you will not, not even at your own cost and your own risk. The Red Cross had trouble getting access to the devastated areas, too - really, it was starting to look less like incompetence and more like actual malice on the part of the administration.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

One difference between Katrina and a few other disasters was that the Feds specifically barred such civilian help from entering the area. It's not just a matter of New Orleans - there were plenty of Gulf communities that could have benefited from the couple hundred pounds of stuff you can safely cram into a small Cessna and pilots willing to fly into the areas - but the Feds said no, you will not, not even at your own cost and your own risk. The Red Cross had trouble getting access to the devastated areas, too - really, it was starting to look less like incompetence and more like actual malice on the part of the administration.

I know that in great detail, Amy and I tried to bring supplies to them during Katrina (I took a train down to Atlanta, and we bought a bunch of water purification equipment there and tried to drive into Alabama). We ended up having to stop all the way up in Birmingham and turn it over to a distribution center, which was located at a Walmart where the collection would not be happening for another day when we had tried to even get them to the local air force base, where they wouldn't take the supplies, which had cost us about a thousand bucks (and though better off by far than we were over the past year until Amy, mercifully, just got a solid job three weeks ago, we were not rich or even well-to-do) and involved us emptying an REI outlet of all their water purification supplies. It's one of the reasons why I can bring myself to say something like China being better than the United States..

[Broomstick]

Barring of civilian aid to the Katrina-affected area was a marked departure for how the US handles disasters, I think you're basing your opinion on an exception to the usual course of events.

Of course, if the Feds bar self-help during the NEXT big disaster then I'd be more inclined to agree with you... but not very. The US still has many advantages over China for the average citizen.