Peak Oil, peak Gas Peak Coal.

[The Jester]

Electric saunas certainly don't help the situation.

[Tiriol]

Electric saunas certainly don't help the situation.

True. It is funny, though - while Finns are generally environment-friendly, our national past time, the sauna, is a sacred cow no one wants to touch or accuse. Electric saunas, especially in the middle of the winter, are expensive things.

It is a sad thing that I didn't think about that before; but if I remember correctly, The Jester is not a native Finn, so he'd have a more objective point of view. Good call, in any case.

[Spyder]

In other words, a lifestyle not too different than my current one.

Wouldn't surprise me if practical gardening becomes much more popular, people start drying their wash on lines out of doors again, and so on. Basically, dialing the lifestyle back to, oh, say 1900-1920 again.

Wait...are washing lines not used anywhere in the US?

[His Divine Shadow]

Finland consumes nearly as much oil per capita as the US? Wow, I dare say I find that a bit odd to say the least.

It has not been that to me, considering our artic climate.

[The Jester]

It is a sad thing that I didn't think about that before; but if I remember correctly, The Jester is not a native Finn, so he'd have a more objective point of view. Good call, in any case.

I was born in Australia and grew up there but also hold Finnish citizenship now. Funny thing is that my family also had a wood-burning sauna while living in Australia. Yeah, that's pretty fucked up.

[K. A. Pital]

It has not been that to me, considering our artic climate.

True. And you have yet far milder climate than us

[The Spartan]

Wait...are washing lines not used anywhere in the US?

Electric dryers are far more common.

[The Grim Squeaker]

Wait...are washing lines not used anywhere in the US?

Electric dryers are far more common.

That's odd, I'd understand it if you had a high urban density, but with the (Large) size of your houses and gardens? Odd.

[Broomstick]

In other words, a lifestyle not too different than my current one.

Wouldn't surprise me if practical gardening becomes much more popular, people start drying their wash on lines out of doors again, and so on. Basically, dialing the lifestyle back to, oh, say 1900-1920 again.

Wait...are washing lines not used anywhere in the US?

They were fairly common up through the mid-70's - I remember hanging wash on the line as a kid - but not anymore. In fact, many localities ban them as eyesores. That is reversing, though, because of the energy pinch

My apartment building had one remaining support pole for it's washing line up until about two years ago, when it fell over. After what I spent at the laundromat this week, I'm considering asking the landlord to put the lines up again.

Although there are issues of convenience (can't dry when it's raining) and how to do this in the winter, which lasts some time up here. Clothes won't dry at -10 C, they'll freeze solid. Oooo! Cold underwear - brrrr!

(Obviously, drying was done indoors in the winter).

[Broomstick]

Wait...are washing lines not used anywhere in the US?

Electric dryers are far more common.

So are are dryers that run on natural gas.

That's odd, I'd understand it if you had a high urban density, but with the (Large) size of your houses and gardens? Odd.

We DO have urban high densities in our larger cities like Chicago and New York. Not that that would elminate drying lines - one of the Chicago buildings I lived in dated back to around 1900 and you could still see some of the brackets and pulleys used to string lines across the alleys to dry laundry way back when. You could also see where they had capped off gas lines from when gas was used to light the place, where they had installed electrical wiring, and various other anachronisms.

[CaptainZoidberg]

Even in light suburbia where there is more than enough room for clotheslines, everyone uses dryers because they're so much more convenient and easy to use.

But come to think of it, switching to a clothes line sounds like a good idea over the summer. I'll try it.

[His Divine Shadow]

My parents have always used clothelines. We'd also have clothes lines in the furnace room and packing room for the greenhouses to take advantage of the very warm surroundings. We also had the shower in the furnace room, it was pretty much always at 30-40 degrees celsius, very nice place to shower in.

My first experience with dryers started when I moved into the city. But now that summer is here people are using clothes lines on the yard to our apartment complex.

[Dahak]

I only use the dryer in winter and when it's raining outside. Otherwise, I put it on the clothes horse on the balcony. Given energy prices, I'd be mad to use the dryer all the time.

[The Grim Squeaker]

That's odd, I'd understand it if you had a high urban density, but with the (Large) size of your houses and gardens? Odd.

We DO have urban high densities in our larger cities like Chicago and New York. Not that that would elminate drying lines - one of the Chicago buildings I lived in dated back to around 1900 and you could still see some of the brackets and pulleys used to string lines across the alleys to dry laundry way back when. You could also see where they had capped off gas lines from when gas was used to light the place, where they had installed electrical wiring, and various other anachronisms.

I meant as a whole, I know that Manhattan is dense . (I've been to enough places in the US, I meant the "Oil per capita" and average house/garden size thing. It's funny, my grandparents live in a flat on the 8th floor of an apartment building and they (like everyone else) hang their washing out on a few lines in front of the window. (I wouldn't though, I'd be too worried about it flying away).

The level of waste in some places simply amazes me. What are fridges even FOR if not leftovers (Well, that and to sanitize food, smartasses). I argue with my parents half the time over throwing underwear, shoes or clothes that have holes in them. (Or whole underwear), under my logic that we should save it for the next donation drive (along with the rest of our old/small clothes).

[Big Phil]

No, I am not going to accept a frugal lifestyle. I'd kill half the population of the United States--myself included--to preserve technological civilization, if it came to that.

Who says that we have to undergo technological regression in order to accept a more frugal lifestyle?

The fact is that there's no choice: a more frugal lifestyle will be forced upon most of the population, one way or another. But that doesn't mean we're going to become shit-flinging medieval primitives; it just means that all of our juicier luxuries will become the exclusive province of the wealthy again, and the middle-class will have to accept smaller homes, train-based commuting, narrowed food choices, far less meat in their diet, and self-rationing of energy. And this will persist until a post-oil infrastructure is created, but it's hardly the end of technological civilization.

Well, I'm expecting extreme hardship--jesus christ, how could I not be when I propose Stalinism as an acceptable alternative?. You bloody well know this. Valdemar, however, seems to continuously push that things are much worse than that.

You're expecting Soviet style breadlines by the end of 2008; we've six months to see if you're right...

[Macunaima]

Around here, I use a system of collapsable clotheslines that is fitted to be installed inside the laundry area of a typical apartment. It has served me great, and the climate helps too, of course.

[Darth Wong]

You can buy a drying rack that goes inside your basement, if you don't want to hang your clothes out in the backyard for whatever reason. We have one. You can also buy drying racks that attach to the wall of your laundry room.

Personally, I don't like outdoor drying. When I leave in the morning I don't know if it's going to rain on the clothes, whether a bird will shit on them, whether the wind will pick up and blow some of them onto the ground, etc.

[Broomstick]

Yes, well, back in the heyday of clotheslines there was the stay-at-home housewife to bring the laundry in if rain threatened, hordes of children to chase away birds, etc.

[Darth Wong]

Well, I'm expecting extreme hardship--jesus christ, how could I not be when I propose Stalinism as an acceptable alternative?. You bloody well know this. Valdemar, however, seems to continuously push that things are much worse than that.

I know you're expecting an economic crisis. I'm just saying that there's no reason to believe that this crisis will cause the collapse of technological civilization. Even during the horrors of Stalin's famines in the 1930s, their civilization did not experience technological regression. And I can't imagine it will get quite that bad, at least not for us. The third world is another matter.

[Admiral Valdemar]

I hate reading Valdemar's posts now. He's the harbinger of the apocalypse.

When does Resident Evil 5 come out?

1/10/08. I can't wait either, but least I have a PS3 for it now.

I hear he wears a robe and has a beard now, and sports an wild eyed look of contempt for the mindless peons of the world. As Adrian says, it's not exactly heartening when the guy with most pessimistic predictions of Peak Oil turns around and says 'as it turns out, I was being very optimistic last summer'. Valdemar, it must be terrible to be you.

I was hoping for a cape instead.

And not really terrible. Compared to last June, I was depressed to the point of almost going to my GP, didn't have a job and hadn't had one since I graduated in '05, wasn't getting regular sex and had friends and family routinely tell me I'd fucked up something awful. Total opposite today. Too bad the world is going to shit when I get a comfortable life going.

Who says that we have to undergo technological regression in order to accept a more frugal lifestyle?

The fact is that there's no choice: a more frugal lifestyle will be forced upon most of the population, one way or another. But that doesn't mean we're going to become shit-flinging medieval primitives; it just means that all of our juicier luxuries will become the exclusive province of the wealthy again, and the middle-class will have to accept smaller homes, train-based commuting, narrowed food choices, far less meat in their diet, and self-rationing of energy. And this will persist until a post-oil infrastructure is created, but it's hardly the end of technological civilization.

That's exactly what I was getting at, but didn't get around to posting again last night. By "frugal", I mean less consumerism, not cast off your clothes and climb a tree and fling poop at people, renouncing all 10,000 years progress from civilisation. America, especially, has major belt-tightening to get to. The bottom line is that 150 years of massive industrial growth is ending, which hits the economy big time.

Right, could you give me a solid date for the total collapse of civilisation please, so that in the remote possibility that you are mistaken we know when to say 'Admiral Valdemar, you were full of shit, admit it'. K THX.

First week of February, 2011. Around 0930 GMT, give or take a minute. Sorry I can't be more precise.

Oh, wow. More vague Doom'n'Gloom(TM). If you're going to post your pessimism, please at least have the decency to make specific claims supported by logic and evidence, rather than handwaving and smoke-blowing.

What's wrong? I thought you were looking into this with me?, or at least were last year. The massive increase in oil prices is reason enough, but on top of that we have a sudden sizeable drop in oil exports to the US with constant declines in stocks, refiner margins are razor thin, many large corporations cannot withstand $100/bbl. oil for long, to say nothing of it rising faster and the likes of KSA and Iran are talking of voluntarily cutting exports to save oil for their future. In fact, your president and his aides constantly harassing the KSA oil gurus has pissed them off, because I can't think of another reason to stick such a blatant finger up at the US there. Iran is also noticing you're going to lose around 20% of your oil within the next several years, meaning more Persian imports, hence the number of VLCCs currently floating in the gulf there containing 20 mb of crude to market.

The writing is on the wall. It's just the media, despite being more keen to report this now, still doesn't get it. We had two peak oil programmes on TV last night here and The Indy had a nice big front-page spread on the "shock" (only a shock if you can't grasp finite resources) on Saturday.

I still hate the methodology that's used for these dumb things. The idea that "proven reserves" constitutes the limit of resource exploration is prima facie absurd, because people only bother to explore for resources 25-75 years out. Beyond that is just wasted resources that could be much more easily put to other uses. I especially love the "peak coal" idea, here, since there are more recoverable reserves of coal in England alone, right now, than have been consumed in the entire history of the Earth (actually, that was true as of 1996), and coal consumption has consistently declined since the Second World War and had been declining for decades before then.

The Stone Age did not end because the world ran out of rocks.

Reserves != flow rate.

Canada has another trillion or so barrels of crude lying under its earth. Why aren't they the new Saudi? When we get over this retarded reserves quoting fallacy, then we can address the real problem. I also suggest looking at China's coal demand and growth along with the recent EWG and affiliated reports on coal. The global coal reserves are horribly inaccurate in their reporting and many places are over peak energy, the US for instance. Additionally, coal is a very good way to fuck the planet up faster. But then when did economists care about the planet?

Well, I'm expecting extreme hardship--jesus christ, how could I not be when I propose Stalinism as an acceptable alternative?. You bloody well know this. Valdemar, however, seems to continuously push that things are much worse than that.

With respect, I have never stated we'd resort to Stalinism nor bread lines by the end of the year. This year will be the turning point for the globalised economy as it begins to creak at the seams, but I don't see the major shockwaves hitting for another couple of years. The net export declines are ever accelerating and past 2012 there are no oil projects of significance to keep us treading water as we are now. Even CERA, that bastion of cornucopian idealism, estimates the global geological decline rate at "only" 4.5% or thereabouts. Exports will fall far faster in many areas, and the likes of China - absolutely vital to our industrial way of life - are having energy bottlenecks appear already. Just wait a couple of years.

Around here, I use a system of collapsable clotheslines that is fitted to be installed inside the laundry area of a typical apartment. It has served me great, and the climate helps too, of course.

I have an accordion like clothes horse I use for my average wash, plus having a cupboard for the boiler means being able to dry the thicker clothing and sheets etc. far faster in the winter.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

You're expecting Soviet style breadlines by the end of 2008; we've six months to see if you're right...

No, I'm not. That line was completely twisted and blown up into a genuine prediction when it was nothing of the sort, you little shit.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Well, I'm expecting extreme hardship--jesus christ, how could I not be when I propose Stalinism as an acceptable alternative?. You bloody well know this. Valdemar, however, seems to continuously push that things are much worse than that.

I know you're expecting an economic crisis. I'm just saying that there's no reason to believe that this crisis will cause the collapse of technological civilization. Even during the horrors of Stalin's famines in the 1930s, their civilization did not experience technological regression. And I can't imagine it will get quite that bad, at least not for us. The third world is another matter.

I agree with you--it just seemed to me that Valdemar doesn't, that his whole attitude is that we're going to end up medieval peasant farmers by the end of the century.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

And just to make the intention of that damned comment clear:

When I originally posted it, I envisioned a situation happening sometime this year in which a perfect storm of rising gas and food prices produced localized food shortages due to regional issues exacerbating it or simple bad luck. The result would be that supermarkets in a particular area would run low on food and not receive further supplies. This thing has happened, I understand, in the United Kingdom already due to localized gas shortages for strikes or damage to infrastructure. In that case, remaining food would have to be rationed in the area for a few days while the crisis was dealt with.

As a result, however, the media would be certain to cover the situation and to film what would certainly be iconic images: The scene of Americans lined up and waiting to receive food. The mere existence of such photographs would be more or less electrifying; and I confess it is a fond hope of mine that it does in fact happen, forcing people to start confronting such potential severity in the near future. The mere and iconic existence of such an event, in which food is no longer secure for Americans (even if the disruption was temporary and localized) would serve the purpose of warning that the decisive failure of the capitalist economy is at hand in the years to come.

At any rate, it's been taken far beyond what it was meant to be by people who would rather not acknowledge that we're in a downhill spiral. I NEVER meant it for it to mean more than that--I'm sometimes just melodramatic.

[Admiral Valdemar]

I agree with you--it just seemed to me that Valdemar doesn't, that his whole attitude is that we're going to end up medieval peasant farmers by the end of the century.

I'd not even know where to begin with a century long prediction, which is about as much folly as giving a precise date for the wheels coming off now. We could be scrounging for cockroaches next weekend if a rogue space rock hits us, but that's beside the point. The life we currently live is over. It's time to adapt quickly, because the situation is drastically getting out of hand and switching to gas or coal won't solve squat.

I just wish I had an EV, a large garden and one of these buried in my yard. Fortunately, the UK is practically self-sufficient in food, provided we cut out a lot of meat use. The bigger problem is the crashing North Sea and our reliance on foreign gas.

[CaptainChewbacca]

So, you're hoping we get a dramatic, temporary shock to the public consciousness NOW so that we won't get a sustained ongoing clusterfuck 10 years from now, right?