[Syria] Cluster bombs being used against civilians

[Broomstick]

So if it could be done post-WWII why not now?

[K. A. Pital]

So if it could be done post-WWII why not now?

Post-WWII was unique - Allied powers (or should I say the two emerging superpowers) held multimillion armies in occupied nations and administered those directly for several years while still keeping millions of boots on the ground. Economic reconstruction was tightly coupled to the actions of civilian administration installed by the occupying powers; it was not an ad-hoc narcostate like Afghanistan or a complete Mad Max mess like Iraq where the policy was "do what you want with that economy now".

The new war doctrine - let's call it "chaos doctrine" - stipulates that regimes could be brought down by a miniscule application of outside force in the form of air power (which is true) and sometimes a small ground force. However, it does not care or provide for anything which happens thereafter, except creating "green zones" and controlling key strategic points and natural resources with the use of vast PMC manpower.

It is an entirely different type of war, a totally different strategy with really different goals - minimize one's human loss (regardless of the civilian losses in the civil war/local war torn nation), control key points and the elite via pinpoint application of forces... voila.

[Wing Commander MAD]

Differences in culture between occupier and occupied may also be playing a role. The economic situations for the occupiers were also rather different from today, particularly the United States. Post WWII the U.S. had a strong growing economy based on manufacturing. Today, the U.S. economy is flaundering and largly based on IP (not necessarly a bad thing) and financing (might as well be voodoo). I also doubt the U.S. has the will for an occupation on the scale of post WWII, the will to stomach the casualties that would likely result, nor manpower even if it did have the will (unless you restarted conscription).

[Simon_Jester]

An occupation that manpower-intensive might actually be LESS bloody in some ways, because you wouldn't have huge rural hinterlands where enemy guerillas are free to organize.

There's a reason a number of (disregarded) generals called for about three times as many troops in Iraq as Bush actually sent, and why "the surge" coincided with a large drop in casualties.

[Stark]

Tell us what this reason is.

[ryacko]

An occupation that manpower-intensive might actually be LESS bloody in some ways, because you wouldn't have huge rural hinterlands where enemy guerrillas are free to organize.

There's a reason a number of (disregarded) generals called for about three times as many troops in Iraq as Bush actually sent, and why "the surge" coincided with a large drop in casualties.

I think counterinsurgency is a bit more complex then you endeavor to propose.

[Nephtys]

The devastated nations of WW2 were 'First World Nations' so to speak. They had developed industries, research and educational establishments, as well as societies well accustomed to order and rule-of-law.

Not exactly the same case as the nations we're talking about right now. Afganistan has been pretty much in this state for hundreds of years.

[Thanas]

Germany, Austria, Italy, Japan. CSA?

That said the most important thing has been to transplant anglo-saxon institutions

What anglo saxon institutions were transplanted to Germany?

not to use government money to try to centrally redevelop an economy. The latter is just like development aid, almost entirely worthless.

Bullcrap. The Marshall plan did a lot of good and was government money.

[Thanas]

Has there ever been a "successful" (define that as you will) reconstruction of a nation after another party came in an conquered?

Serbia and the Kosovo look mighty troubled but at least there is no widespread sectarian violence and institutions are working decent.

EDIT: wrote wrong word

[K. A. Pital]

Not exactly the same case as the nations we're talking about right now. Afganistan has been pretty much in this state for hundreds of years.

That's untrue. Afghanistan of the 1960s was a lot different from what it is now. Sure, it was a backwards nation in a stage of industrialization long past the First and Second world, but it was not a dysfunctional narco-state which is half-run by mafia and the other half by crazy ISI-bred Islamist fanatics.

[Sea Skimmer]

The US Army actually was in Afghanistan in the 1960s too. It was building roads, and the guys doing it sure didn't need massive armed escorts. The population was a lot lower though.

[Thanas]

^That is interesting. Army corps of engineers doing development aid work or why were they deployed there?

[Iron Bridge]

Germany, Austria, Italy, Japan. CSA?

That said the most important thing has been to transplant anglo-saxon institutions

What anglo saxon institutions were transplanted to Germany?

Democracy, rule of law, free markets. Not to say no one in Germany ever supported these things, but the Anglo-American occupation put those people in power.

not to use government money to try to centrally redevelop an economy. The latter is just like development aid, almost entirely worthless.

Bullcrap. The Marshall plan did a lot of good and was government money.

Post-war GDP per capita growth is inversely proportional to amount of Marshall aid received. Not that I think Marshall aid made countries poorer, probably it just made no appreciable difference.

[Wing Commander MAD]

Democracy, rule of law, free markets. Not to say no one in Germany ever supported these things, but the Anglo-American occupation put those people in power.

You do realize Germany had all those prior to the Nazi government, and that big name industrialists (ie supporters of the free market) were major supporters and players in the Nazi regime ... You know what screw it. Thanas have fun.

[cosmicalstorm]

There is growing talk on many forums that Assad is now all but done, Syria is now on deathwatch. Rumor says that Assads closest are fleeing the sinking ship. Personally I suspect there will be twenty flavors of ethnic massacre after this is done. In fact, I wonder if not tens of thousands of people will be at risk of genocide when the rebels decide to pay back.

December 21, 2012: The Syrian rebellion is now in its deathwatch phase. The government is doomed and its forces grow weaker every day. It’s only a matter of time before the government losses control of the entire country and surviving officials flee for sanctuary. Allies (Iran, Russia, China) have been quietly offering refuge to Assad and his senior aides. President Basher Assad keeps making public announcements that he has no intention of leaving. The same can’t be said about the several thousand senior officials he depends on to control the country. Many of these people have committed known criminal acts over the decades and have to fear rebel retribution if they are still in Syria when the rebels win. Many of these officials have already sent their families into exile and when these army and government leaders join their families in large numbers, you’ll know it’s the end. That is expected to happen within the next few months or weeks.

At the moment, the government is calling more and more of its most reliable troops back to Damascus to defend the capital. Despite weeks of government air and ground attacks, rebel gunmen and Islamic terrorists continue to operate inside Damascus. You can hear the gunfire and explosions from downtown where the ministries and major business headquarters are located. The second largest city (after Damascus), Aleppo, is almost completely under rebel control. That includes dozens of military bases and most of the weapons and munitions stored there. The government troops have died, been captured, deserted, or, most frequently, been moved to another part of the country.

The big fear in the West is that Assad may turn his chemical weapons (especially the nerve gas) over to Hezbollah or these weapons may be seized by rebel groups that are also Islamic terrorists intent on attacking the West and Israel. Hezbollah, as a creation of Iran (in the 1980s), could have gotten nerve gas from Iran at any time since then. But that stuff, if used, could be traced back to Iran with dire consequences for Iran. The Syrian stuff, created by a Syrian dictator recently removed from power, would be another matter. In any event, this is not a huge deal as nerve gas is vastly overrated as a terrorist (or military) weapon.

A more immediate problem for the victorious rebels is getting the economy going again. Many key officials (business owners and government officials) who took care of that will be gone after the rebel victory. As was discovered in Libya, putting the economy and government back together is not easy. The same can be said about restoring law and order. As in Libya, Syria will have dozens of major militias, and hundreds of smaller ones, all making demands on the new government and threatening violence if they don’t get their way. Rebel leaders, while still on speaking terms with each other, are already trying to work out the rules for a post-Assad Syria.

Rebels have captured most of Morek, a town that controls the main road between Damascus and Aleppo (and the Turkish border). Some of the towns in this area are Christian and Alawite, and the government is offering weapons to the residents if they will form pro-government militias. This will complicate the security once the rebels win because these minorities long supported the Assads and benefitted from that. Many of the majority Sunnis will be looking for revenge once Assad is gone.

December 20, 2012: The UN admitted what it had long denied, that the Syrian revolution was an uprising of a largely Sunni population against a Shia (Alawite) minority and several other minorities. The UN also announced sanctions against two more Iranian transportations companies for moving weapons to Syria despite UN sanctions.

December 19, 2012: Rebels have captured most of the key towns in the central Syrian province of Hama. This sort of thing means the rebels control key roads, cutting government forces off from each other and cutting some military bases from supply. These troops begin running out of food and other essential items and their bases become easier to capture.

The UN is seeking $1.5 billion from donor countries. A third would go to about 20 percent of the population inside Syria who are refugees or cut off from food supplies. The rest of the money would go to help over 500,000 Syrian refugees in neighboring countries. About 40 percent of the refuges are in Turkey with the rest in Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq.

December 18, 2012: About half the 112,000 Palestinians in a refugee camp (Yarmouk, actually a large town) south of Damascus have fled to avoid fighting and air force bombings. The Palestinian leadership is split between rebel and government supporters and the pro-government groups have been losing the battle. As of today, the rebels appear to control all of Yarmouk.

December 17, 2012: Rebels kidnapped two Russians and an Italian on a highway near the port city of Latakia. The rebels (who may be criminals pretending to be rebels) are demanding $700,000 ransom for the release of the three men.

Russia has sent four warships (two amphibious ships, a frigate, and a supply ship) to Syria, apparently to evacuate Russian citizens. The ships are apparently heading for Tartus, the major Syrian port.

A Syrian official told a Lebanese newspaper that he believed neither side could win. Government allies like Iran and Russia now believe the government will eventually lose. Iran is calling for a cease fire and negotiations but few of the rebel militias are interested in that. The rebels sense victory and don’t want to talk.

December 16, 2012: Trying to support pro-government Palestinian militias, air force planes bombed the Palestinian town (“refugee camp”) Yarmouk (south of Damascus).

December 15, 2012: Iranian military leaders protested the arrival of NATO Patriot missile batteries in Turkey. This is more media theater by the Iranians who are taking a big hit in the media because of Iranian support for the Assad government in Syria.

December 13, 2012: An American network (NBC) news reporter and three colleagues were kidnapped by a pro-government militia near the Turkish border. NBC and the other major media organizations agreed to keep quiet about the kidnapping, as this made it easier to negotiate with the kidnappers (who raise the price, and make more threats, the more publicity the event gets). Some web sites and pro-government foreign (Chinese and Russian) news organizations reported the kidnapping, but most Westerners were unaware of it. Rebel groups began looking for the captives and found them on the 17th. The four escaped during the rebel attack on the kidnappers and got back into Turkey.

December 12, 2012: The government fired six SCUD ballistic missiles at the Sheikh Suleiman military base outside Aleppo. SCUDs continued to be launched, one or two every few days. The warheads were apparently just explosives (Syrian SCUDS are also able to carry a chemical weapons warhead). Each missile is the equivalent of a half-ton bomb dropped from an aircraft. The base is spread out over 200 hectares (500 acres). SCUD is a Russian designed missile based on the German V-2 of World War II. In effect, SCUD is a perfected V-2 but still takes several hours to fuel and make ready for firing. The Syrian SCUDs are not particularly accurate, they are able to hit within a kilometer wide circle, at best. The Syrians are firing SCUDs (of which they have several hundred) because they fear the missiles might get captured, and the air force is running short of munitions and fuel for aircraft missions.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

I don't see any reason why Assad's collapse will end the fighting or lead to a massacre. The Christians and Alawaites are all heavily concentrated in the coastal plain and coastal mountains, a nice geographically contiguous area with Turkish and Lebanese borders, the later of which is highly porous and filled with many people liable to support them. All Assad's fall will do is trigger the shift from a civil war versus the established government to an intercommunal civil war of Alawaites, Christians, and Kurds versus Sunni and mainstream Shia.

[Grumman]

A blog for Al Jazeera claims that a chemical weapon was used in a rebel-held neighbourhood, with seven dead.

Seven people have died in Homs after they inhaled a poisonous gas sprayed by government forces in a rebel-held neighbourhood, activists said.

Activists also told Al Jazeera that scores of others were affected in al-Bayyada neighbourhood. Side effects reported include nausea, relaxed muscles, blurred vision, and breathing difficulties.

Residents said they did not know the nature of the gas sprayed.

"The situation is very difficult. We do not have enough facemasks. We don't know what this gas is but medics are saying it's something similar to Sarin gas," Raji Rahmet Rabbou, an activist in Homs, told Al Jazeera.

[ryacko]

"activists" with guns?

I doubt the authenticity of the source. Until there's photos all over cnn showing gassed syrians, this claim leaves much to be desired for.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012 ... gases?lite

The gas is thought to have been a concentrated irritant, but not one of the deadly chemical weapons stockpiled by the regime of Syria president Bashar Assad.
Claims by either side in Syria’s bitter civil war are almost impossible to independently verify because journalists are rarely allowed access to the country.
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Pesticide poisoning?
Mousab Azzawi, chairman of the London-based Syrian Network for Human Rights and a doctor, told NBC News that his organization had received reports from three eyewitnesses on Sunday.
He said field doctors in Homs were seeing patients “losing consciousness, experiencing severe shortness of breath and vomiting.”
“To our understanding, this is similar to poisoning with pesticide,” he said, although he was not aware of any pesticide that could take the form of a gas.

[cosmicalstorm]

I've seen a lot ATGM action on Liveleak lately. I wonder if that is new for the rebels or if I'm just misremembering.