Jub wrote:
So explain the differences between two packages going to the same place with vastly different results?
How do you know the results are vastly different? They don't actually let us see the data, they just give us vague results without any means to corroborate them. So a package is "10 times more likely" to not arrive ... but what is the base rate of such delays and delivery failures by which we can compare these? These are just isolated numbers without ANY CONTEXT. (In fact, they claim that atheist packages are 10 times more likely to disappear, but then say that only 9 disappeared compared to 1 unmarked package. That is not only a minuscule sample size, but they don't even get the fucking ratio right on their own graphic).
Jub wrote:
Does dumb luck really seem that much more likely than malice given the track record that the US has?
Please provide evidence of the US track record of systematic mail fraud. I'm waiting.
Jub wrote:
You also missed this post:<snip>
Actually, I didn't (in fact, I quoted it in my last post). It doesn't address any of the problems with the study. So go ahead, answer any of my following questions, please:
They sent 178 packages to 89 people in 49 states. But they don't note the actual distribution of these people. Was this 1 person in each of 48 states and then 41 people lumped in the other? Was it distributed more evenly? Where in the states were they? Major cities, rural areas? How did any delays and delivery failures correlate to this distribution? Do we expect similar shipping times to Pocatello, Idaho as New York City?
What day of the week did packages arrive in various distribution centers? They only note the day they shipped them from Germany. However, they do not note the route that the packages took, and how different routes correlated to different delivery times. What if it was non-priority mail and it arrives on a Sunday morning? It won't get sent out from that distribution center until Monday - did they take that sort of delay into account? What about some major cities in which the mail needs to be routed through multiple distribution centers? What about places like D.C., which typically has extra delays due to the biologics tests they often perform at the mail distribution centers? Some places in the US don't do weekend delivery anymore, due to budget cutbacks - did the delays correlate with these or not?
They explicitly admit they didn't use GPS tracking, so they don't even have a real data set! That means they are only able to note the final delivery date. Are delivery rates from Germany to California typically similar or dissimilar to delivery rates from Germany to New York? How do we expect these rates to vary by geographic location, delivery route, etc?
Were the delays and disappearances scattered or clustered? That is, did 5 packages disappear from one sorting facility?
Why did they use shipping in Europe as their control? Are the U.S. and European postal systems comparable in this manner? What are the systematic differences between them? How does shipping within Germany, to other European countries, and to the U.S. differ in terms of normal baseline delay rates? Why do they not have a control group for the U.S. sample (I mean, there is literally NOTHING to compare this data against!)? What happens if they replicate this again - same results, different results?
Hell, they don't even tell us WHAT they are shipping. They just noted "packages." What kind? What size? What are the normal handling policies in the U.S. and Germany for these types of packages? You know that some states have different shipping laws, right? They don't mention anything about that.
Again, they jump immediately to this conclusion:
But for packages to disappear completely, we see no likely explanation other than there existing an attitudinal bias and discriminatory motivation on the part of some people handling these packages.
Why do they think this? How often do packages disappear in the US postal system? Considering their abject failure to even attempt to correlate disappearances or delays with even something so basic as geography, how do we know these results are accurate? Assuming they are accurate, are they rigorous and replicable?
I mean, seriously - from your posting history I don't find you to be a moron, but this is incredibly idiotic. This study is poorly designed (they completely lack a US control group, and try to use a European control without any effort at justification, they don't make any effort to address or control for dozens of confounding factors) to begin with. Not only that, but THEY DO NOT SHOW US THE DATA. I cannot stress this enough. THEY DO NOT SHOW US ANY OF THE DATA. They give "results" (even contradicting themselves in their own fucking graphic) and their own interpretation of them. Do you know WHY all scientific studies have separate "results" and "discussion" sections?
How can you honestly take what that website says at face value? They make no effort at being objective or even following the basic elements of the scientific method. They make no effort at even adequately describing the methods of their study, never-mind reporting the results.